Kataeb are done and will be dyingThe best move by FPM as a consequence of the LF/ Marada understanding, assuming it succeeds would be:
1) open with Murr: this one is a mighty bastard that can be very resourceful. Besides, he would gladly side with GB-led FPM. Murr resents animosity towards frangieh and bou jamra , the latter is no longer fpm, but not towards GB. Plus, armenians would greet the new understanding between FPM and Murr and reinforce their alliance with fpm,given that FPM stay away from Kataeb
2) open with SSNP everywhere in Lebanon. Frangieh, by adventurimg in a love story with Geagea will lose completely his alliance with SSNP, baathist party and other leftist parties.
3) open with Karami, who was a traditional sunni ally to frangieh. Frangieh will lose him forever. that is a golden opportunity cor FPM to have a foot in Tripoli. Who knows, maybe fpm and karameh would side during th nxt elections.
4) MOST IMPORTANTLY OF ALL: STAY AWAY FROM THE POISON NAMED KATAEB !
It is very temtptimg to open ties with Kataeb as a knee-jerk reaction to theLf/marada understanding, since they are (still) present in some regions, but not for long.
Opening ties with Kataeb would send all the above-mentioned potential allies away.
Samy is leading his party to oblivion. In few years we will talk a out kataeb as we talk about ahrara and ketleh wataniyeh: a party that is gone to history
They will never join an Alliance with FPM
I think the best thing for FPM is to work on alliances similar to Frem , Mouawad and Daher
They were key to succcess of FPM lists
Attracting murr junior again in metn will not be easy
The north district is interesting for FPM since they have a lot to gain
Less than 5-10 % is not acceptable in these areas
A stronger presence in Bcharre Zgharta and Koura
In Achrafieh having Massoud as minister will be a nice coup to strengthen presence
In Chouf Aley a stronger presence on ground
GB should try and call for a reconciliation and turn the page with the people that left
Irrespective if they agree or not or accept or not
This will drain their support if any