تقارب بين القوات والمردة تحت رعاية كنسية: ما هي توقعاتكم؟

Mockinggbird

Mockinggbird

New Member
The best move by FPM as a consequence of the LF/ Marada understanding, assuming it succeeds would be:

1) open with Murr: this one is a mighty bastard that can be very resourceful. Besides, he would gladly side with GB-led FPM. Murr resents animosity towards frangieh and bou jamra , the latter is no longer fpm, but not towards GB. Plus, armenians would greet the new understanding between FPM and Murr and reinforce their alliance with fpm,given that FPM stay away from Kataeb

2) open with SSNP everywhere in Lebanon. Frangieh, by adventurimg in a love story with Geagea will lose completely his alliance with SSNP, baathist party and other leftist parties.

3) open with Karami, who was a traditional sunni ally to frangieh. Frangieh will lose him forever. that is a golden opportunity cor FPM to have a foot in Tripoli. Who knows, maybe fpm and karameh would side during th nxt elections.

4) MOST IMPORTANTLY OF ALL: STAY AWAY FROM THE POISON NAMED KATAEB !
It is very temtptimg to open ties with Kataeb as a knee-jerk reaction to theLf/marada understanding, since they are (still) present in some regions, but not for long.
Opening ties with Kataeb would send all the above-mentioned potential allies away.
Samy is leading his party to oblivion. In few years we will talk a out kataeb as we talk about ahrara and ketleh wataniyeh: a party that is gone to history
Kataeb are done and will be dying
They will never join an Alliance with FPM
I think the best thing for FPM is to work on alliances similar to Frem , Mouawad and Daher
They were key to succcess of FPM lists
Attracting murr junior again in metn will not be easy
The north district is interesting for FPM since they have a lot to gain
Less than 5-10 % is not acceptable in these areas
A stronger presence in Bcharre Zgharta and Koura
In Achrafieh having Massoud as minister will be a nice coup to strengthen presence
In Chouf Aley a stronger presence on ground
GB should try and call for a reconciliation and turn the page with the people that left
Irrespective if they agree or not or accept or not
This will drain their support if any
 
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  • TheMaronite

    TheMaronite

    New Member
    GB should try and call for a reconciliation and turn the page with the people that left
    Irrespective if they agree or not or accept or not
    This will drain their support if any
    The time for a reconciliation has not come yet. Instead he should carry on the purge in the fpm. As soon as PMA goes away, GB should get rid from shamel roukoz from Strong Lebanon bloc (albeit he s not fpm), alain aoun, and ... ibrahim kanaan (i know it s harsh , but this is how he should do to maintain himself as tge sole leader of fpm/aounist. A reconciliation will be done in the very far future, when bassilis have taken key positions in fpm
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    The best move by FPM as a consequence of the LF/ Marada understanding, assuming it succeeds would be:

    1) open with Murr: this one is a mighty bastard that can be very resourceful. Besides, he would gladly side with GB-led FPM. Murr resents animosity towards frangieh and bou jamra , the latter is no longer fpm, but not towards GB. Plus, armenians would greet the new understanding between FPM and Murr and reinforce their alliance with fpm,given that FPM stay away from Kataeb

    2) open with SSNP everywhere in Lebanon. Frangieh, by adventurimg in a love story with Geagea will lose completely his alliance with SSNP, baathist party and other leftist parties.

    3) open with Karami, who was a traditional sunni ally to frangieh. Frangieh will lose him forever. that is a golden opportunity cor FPM to have a foot in Tripoli. Who knows, maybe fpm and karameh would side during th nxt elections.

    4) MOST IMPORTANTLY OF ALL: STAY AWAY FROM THE POISON NAMED KATAEB !
    It is very temtptimg to open ties with Kataeb as a knee-jerk reaction to theLf/marada understanding, since they are (still) present in some regions, but not for long.
    Opening ties with Kataeb would send all the above-mentioned potential allies away.
    Samy is leading his party to oblivion. In few years we will talk a out kataeb as we talk about ahrara and ketleh wataniyeh: a party that is gone to history
    You do know that there is communication between FPM and Kataeb right?
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Kataeb are done and will be dying
    They will never join an Alliance with FPM
    I think the best thing for FPM is to work on alliances similar to Frem , Mouawad and Daher
    They were key to succcess of FPM lists
    Attracting murr junior again in metn will not be easy
    The north district is interesting for FPM since they have a lot to gain
    Less than 5-10 % is not acceptable in these areas
    A stronger presence in Bcharre Zgharta and Koura
    In Achrafieh having Massoud as minister will be a nice coup to strengthen presence
    In Chouf Aley a stronger presence on ground
    GB should try and call for a reconciliation and turn the page with the people that left
    Irrespective if they agree or not or accept or not
    This will drain their support if any
    If you are talking about ministry wise FPM needs to have a minister from.

    1) Akkar
    2) Achrafiyeh
    3) Zahle
    4) Keserwen
    5) Chouf-Aley
    6) Jezzine
     
    HannaTheCrusader

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Kataeb are done and will be dying
    They will never join an Alliance with FPM
    I think the best thing for FPM is to work on alliances similar to Frem , Mouawad and Daher
    They were key to succcess of FPM lists
    Attracting murr junior again in metn will not be easy
    The north district is interesting for FPM since they have a lot to gain
    Less than 5-10 % is not acceptable in these areas
    A stronger presence in Bcharre Zgharta and Koura
    In Achrafieh having Massoud as minister will be a nice coup to strengthen presence
    In Chouf Aley a stronger presence on ground
    GB should try and call for a reconciliation and turn the page with the people that left
    Irrespective if they agree or not or accept or not
    This will drain their support if any
    am not worried about tayyar
    they have done well and will do even better 2022

    ga3ga3 is getting old and no one to take over from and with time, they have a power struggle
    mardaa hajmoun 2- 3 nouwab at best and thats it, with mouawad back in power, he will give them a lot of headaches and tayyar has gotten 3800 votes in kaza zgharta and are working on it to expand it
    kataeb are saturated in matn and they won in achrafief due to antoine shenauoi .
    many feudal Christians families are done and finished so tayyar will inherit some of their supporters

    tayyar already went through a power struggle and bassil is now fully in charge and whomever wanted to leave left
    and many who were ze3laneen and had issues with him ( myself including) are back to fully back him and we are happy with his performance

    tayyar had to slug it all alone ( with few allies like freme, mouawad, etc) and won 29, in 2022 tayayr will win another 3 or 3 extra

    basically tayyar no no place but UP TO GROW
    and with the nessbiye, tayyar is very much in his element


    PS: tayyar abse is growing while otehrs are dyuing out and aging
    when General created tayyar in 1988 , many of us were young, teenagers

    TODAY WE ARE ALL MIDDLE AGED WHO ARE IN CHARGE OF OUR NUCLEAR FAMILIES , BASICALY EACH ONE OF US , HAS SWAY OVER A HALF DOZEN ( MOTHER,M FATHER, SISTER, WIFE., KIDS) YES many of our kids are voting age now ( 2022 one of my kids will be voting tayyar)
    so demographic wise we have exploded and now make up the majority in the christian street

    compare that with kataeb, marada, hareb, fattoush, skjaff, even ouwat ( who outside bchrae and deir ahar) arent growing at all .
     
    HannaTheCrusader

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    The time for a reconciliation has not come yet. Instead he should carry on the purge in the fpm. As soon as PMA goes away, GB should get rid from shamel roukoz from Strong Lebanon bloc (albeit he s not fpm), alain aoun, and ... ibrahim kanaan (i know it s harsh , but this is how he should do to maintain himself as tge sole leader of fpm/aounist. A reconciliation will be done in the very far future, when bassilis have taken key positions in fpm
    i agree chamel will be a headache but he knows, without tayyar and gebran, he wont get 100 votes , so he will be reigned in to tow the line
    alan aun same, he has a lot to lose without tayayr, so he too will behave
    kenaan ,is wise and decent enough and already have a good relationship with gebran not to be at logegrjead with him


    gebran is in firm control of the party AND WHAT MATTERS MOST , THE TAYYAR BASE SEES HIM AS THE LEADER AND FULLY TRUST HIM AND THATS HIS STRENGTH

    GEBRAN AFTER ghzawet mirna al shalou7i isdifferent that before
    after the ghazwet GEBRAN is very popular and liked by us
     
    TheMaronite

    TheMaronite

    New Member
    many feudal Christians families are done and finished so tayyar will inherit some of their supporters
    .
    We should not be illusioned. Feudal families are far from being wiped out forever. Boutros harb myriam skaff, fattoush and others may have lost the elections, but can still comeback with another electoral law.
    Mouawad, ibrahim azar, and others emerged fom the dead while we thought they were gone. And now new feudal leaders are emerging such as nehmat efrem.
    The only two we can say they’re gone forever is fares boueiz in kesrwan (who was already weak before 2005) and hrawi in zahle.
    Hence Parties such as fpm and lf should drain the popularity of all the feudal leaders starting with kataeb and marada in order to send all these dwarves with a one way ticket into oblivion.
     
    Last edited:
    HannaTheCrusader

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter


    We should not be illusioned. Feudal families are far from being wiped out forever. Boutros harb myriam skaff, fattoush and others may have lost the elections, but can still comeback with another electoral law.
    Mouawad, ibrahim azar, and others emerged fom the dead while we thought they were gone. And now new feudal leaders are emerging such as nehmat efrem.
    The only two we can say they’re gone forever is fares boueiz in kesrwan (who was already weak before 2005) and hrawi in zahle.
    Hence Parties such as fpm and lf should drain the popularity of all the feudal leaders starting with kataeb and marada in order to send all these dwarves with a one way ticket into oblivion.
    majority of feudal families are wiped out
    some may survive true
    but most are gone and will be a force maybe in baladiye or at best to aid with few hundred votes here and there
    lost of feudal families wiped or gravely weakened

    feroun; has no one t carry over, will die with him
    fattoush..sme here, die with him
    skaff : has a bit of chance if tayyar or hesbe take sher in 2022
    murr.. his kids at best will be part of a party , but on their own they are done
    karam : will die with him
    hareb: will die with him , gravely weakened,
    zwein..died
    soueid...died
    obeid died
    saade..died, even kataeb cant do much for his son
    ghosn in koura...died
    dahe rin akkar..died
    akel in batroun ..died
    and so many to name
    NESSBIYE FINISHED THEM FOR GOOD

    ones who might survive

    frangieh ...weakened to a point he needs constanbt shgia backing to survive, even if he becomes president, after his term he will be back to his mini size
    mouawad..same , has to depend on a party ( ouwat, tayyar, etc)
    douwaihi,,died, he is still in play cause frangeh backs him, on his own he is done


    basically we are back to pre 1975 where partie shave taken over

    tayyar
    ouwat
    kataeb
    marada to a degree
    tashnaq

    are and will be the ones getting the Lion share from christian Mps
     
    TheMaronite

    TheMaronite

    New Member
    majority of feudal families are wiped out
    some may survive true
    but most are gone and will be a force maybe in baladiye or at best to aid with few hundred votes here and there
    lost of feudal families wiped or gravely weakened

    feroun; has no one t carry over, will die with him
    fattoush..sme here, die with him
    skaff : has a bit of chance if tayyar or hesbe take sher in 2022
    murr.. his kids at best will be part of a party , but on their own they are done
    karam : will die with him
    hareb: will die with him , gravely weakened,
    zwein..died
    soueid...died
    obeid died
    saade..died, even kataeb cant do much for his son
    ghosn in koura...died
    dahe rin akkar..died
    akel in batroun ..died
    and so many to name
    NESSBIYE FINISHED THEM FOR GOOD

    ones who might survive

    frangieh ...weakened to a point he needs constanbt shgia backing to survive, even if he becomes president, after his term he will be back to his mini size
    mouawad..same , has to depend on a party ( ouwat, tayyar, etc)
    douwaihi,,died, he is still in play cause frangeh backs him, on his own he is done


    basically we are back to pre 1975 where partie shave taken over

    tayyar
    ouwat
    kataeb
    marada to a degree
    tashnaq

    are and will be the ones getting the Lion share from christian Mps
    INChallah
     
    Mockinggbird

    Mockinggbird

    New Member
    am not worried about tayyar
    they have done well and will do even better 2022

    ga3ga3 is getting old and no one to take over from and with time, they have a power struggle
    mardaa hajmoun 2- 3 nouwab at best and thats it, with mouawad back in power, he will give them a lot of headaches and tayyar has gotten 3800 votes in kaza zgharta and are working on it to expand it
    kataeb are saturated in matn and they won in achrafief due to antoine shenauoi .
    many feudal Christians families are done and finished so tayyar will inherit some of their supporters

    tayyar already went through a power struggle and bassil is now fully in charge and whomever wanted to leave left
    and many who were ze3laneen and had issues with him ( myself including) are back to fully back him and we are happy with his performance

    tayyar had to slug it all alone ( with few allies like freme, mouawad, etc) and won 29, in 2022 tayayr will win another 3 or 3 extra

    basically tayyar no no place but UP TO GROW
    and with the nessbiye, tayyar is very much in his element


    PS: tayyar abse is growing while otehrs are dyuing out and aging
    when General created tayyar in 1988 , many of us were young, teenagers

    TODAY WE ARE ALL MIDDLE AGED WHO ARE IN CHARGE OF OUR NUCLEAR FAMILIES , BASICALY EACH ONE OF US , HAS SWAY OVER A HALF DOZEN ( MOTHER,M FATHER, SISTER, WIFE., KIDS) YES many of our kids are voting age now ( 2022 one of my kids will be voting tayyar)
    so demographic wise we have exploded and now make up the majority in the christian street

    compare that with kataeb, marada, hareb, fattoush, skjaff, even ouwat ( who outside bchrae and deir ahar) arent growing at all .
    Nchallah
    But I see bit of weakness in the 18-25 segment
    Tayyar used to be leaders now ouweit are showing better activity
    Fpm should be more open to new faces and do some moves
    Moawad in Zgharta is a big coup
    There should be similar moves in other places
    There shouldn’t be a war on local figures
    For example look what LF did with Hawwat
    They would never dream of such result without him
    Frem was a big plus in keserwan for fpm
    A small 1 seat murr in metn will be controllable
    I hope GB continue on this path and enlarge the alliance to other independent figures that have added value
    There is no point conducting useless wars against them while engaging them will do no harm at all for a party like fpm
    Starting with the ministers selection getting on board specialist people will be great
     
    Mockinggbird

    Mockinggbird

    New Member
    i agree chamel will be a headache but he knows, without tayyar and gebran, he wont get 100 votes , so he will be reigned in to tow the line
    alan aun same, he has a lot to lose without tayayr, so he too will behave
    kenaan ,is wise and decent enough and already have a good relationship with gebran not to be at logegrjead with him


    gebran is in firm control of the party AND WHAT MATTERS MOST , THE TAYYAR BASE SEES HIM AS THE LEADER AND FULLY TRUST HIM AND THATS HIS STRENGTH

    GEBRAN AFTER ghzawet mirna al shalou7i isdifferent that before
    after the ghazwet GEBRAN is very popular and liked by us
    These people are smart and will not do stupid moves
    I think all of this is made up in media
    GB rules especially after the non stop attacks from everywhere
    Ma3moudiyet el nar
    He took all the attacks that used to target PMA
     
    zero

    zero

    Member
    The best move by FPM as a consequence of the LF/ Marada understanding, assuming it succeeds would be:

    1) open with Murr: this one is a mighty bastard that can be very resourceful. Besides, he would gladly side with GB-led FPM. Murr resents animosity towards frangieh and bou jamra , the latter is no longer fpm, but not towards GB. Plus, armenians would greet the new understanding between FPM and Murr and reinforce their alliance with fpm,given that FPM stay away from Kataeb

    2) open with SSNP everywhere in Lebanon. Frangieh, by adventurimg in a love story with Geagea will lose completely his alliance with SSNP, baathist party and other leftist parties.

    3) open with Karami, who was a traditional sunni ally to frangieh. Frangieh will lose him forever. that is a golden opportunity cor FPM to have a foot in Tripoli. Who knows, maybe fpm and karameh would side during th nxt elections.

    4) MOST IMPORTANTLY OF ALL: STAY AWAY FROM THE POISON NAMED KATAEB !
    It is very temtptimg to open ties with Kataeb as a knee-jerk reaction to theLf/marada understanding, since they are (still) present in some regions, but not for long.
    Opening ties with Kataeb would send all the above-mentioned potential allies away.
    Samy is leading his party to oblivion. In few years we will talk a out kataeb as we talk about ahrara and ketleh wataniyeh: a party that is gone to history
    Just two days ago I read that LF was trying to mend ties with Kataeb as well as Marada
     
    TheMaronite

    TheMaronite

    New Member
    Just two days ago I read that LF was trying to mend ties with Kataeb as well as Marada
    They souldn’t as that would isolate fpm abd create a 3atef massi7eh around them, the same way fpm benefited from the ta7elof l roube3eh in 2005.
    LF should dissassociate themseleves completely from kataeb, and fpm should stay clear . Their incompetence combined with their history full of deception, backstabbing , and opportunism since pierre gemayel sr. should be sanctioned
     
    TheMaronite

    TheMaronite

    New Member
    Just two days ago I read that LF was trying to mend ties with Kataeb as well as Marada
    Kataeb should know once and for all their true size, and that without LF, they are heading toward oblivion.
    Unless they beg for pardon and mercy from LF for having wandered from their alliance diring the parliamentary elections,.. other than that, They are worthless
     
    HannaTheCrusader

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Nchallah
    But I see bit of weakness in the 18-25 segment
    Tayyar used to be leaders now ouweit are showing better activity
    Fpm should be more open to new faces and do some moves
    Moawad in Zgharta is a big coup
    There should be similar moves in other places
    There shouldn’t be a war on local figures
    For example look what LF did with Hawwat
    They would never dream of such result without him
    Frem was a big plus in keserwan for fpm
    A small 1 seat murr in metn will be controllable
    I hope GB continue on this path and enlarge the alliance to other independent figures that have added value
    There is no point conducting useless wars against them while engaging them will do no harm at all for a party like fpm
    Starting with the ministers selection getting on board specialist people will be great
    bro

    ouwat strength is in the north mainly

    deir a7mar
    bchare
    koura
    batroun
    where 70% of therir voters come from ( 40k north kaza, 18k deir a7mar) , zahle anotehr 20% ...rest of christian areas they are in the10%

    also on ouwat, we are not denying they have about 25% of the total christikan street
    while tayayr has alone close of 50%

    13 th october 2018 , tayyar is having a memorial for the fallen heroes that includes givig out 5000 new tayyar memberships...majority are young ones

    dont gte me wrong, i dont mind if ouwat have their share of power, its just not to overestimate theirs

    as for marada ,...they are only there cause the shia are backing them fully,,,other than that., qawmiye are more popular than marada in christian street
     
    HannaTheCrusader

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    These people are smart and will not do stupid moves
    I think all of this is made up in media
    GB rules especially after the non stop attacks from everywhere
    Ma3moudiyet el nar
    He took all the attacks that used to target PMA

    true

    they will not disagree
    they need each other

    and gebran has the base full support
     
    HannaTheCrusader

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Just two days ago I read that LF was trying to mend ties with Kataeb as well as Marada

    good
    why not

    i am all for mending major issues between christians,
    that said

    politically donkey bnahe will lose a l,ot from making such move with ga3ga3
    cause part of his base vote kermal ehden massacre, when this is gone,he will lose them for others ( tayyar especially)

    many were like voting for him, due to his loss
    if he makes peace with his killer, ( which is fine by me ) he will lose those voters , who might be between 500-1000 but they are sizable once you consider that marada total voters in zgharta were 20k..

    a loss of 500-1000 is painful
    keep in mind that part of the 20k ( was salim karam 1600 votes) who will surely not vote marda again..
    thats 18500... less lets say 1000 thata 17500

    thats barely 1 1/2 and few more mistrakes and marada are donw to be 1 MP show
     
    Mockinggbird

    Mockinggbird

    New Member
    good
    why not

    i am all for mending major issues between christians,
    that said

    politically donkey bnahe will lose a l,ot from making such move with ga3ga3
    cause part of his base vote kermal ehden massacre, when this is gone,he will lose them for others ( tayyar especially)

    many were like voting for him, due to his loss
    if he makes peace with his killer, ( which is fine by me ) he will lose those voters , who might be between 500-1000 but they are sizable once you consider that marada total voters in zgharta were 20k..

    a loss of 500-1000 is painful
    keep in mind that part of the 20k ( was salim karam 1600 votes) who will surely not vote marda again..
    thats 18500... less lets say 1000 thata 17500

    thats barely 1 1/2 and few more mistrakes and marada are donw to be 1 MP show
    100%
    I don’t know how much fpm is active in these areas but there should be a special task force for bcharre Zgharta koura
    Jezzine chouf akkar were amazing
    I don’t see why the other areas especially northern districts are not the same
    Fine if LF are strong in bcharre but melhem tawk got 4-5 thousands
    Basically not all people vote LF
    The guy have presence on ground but I’m not sure how present are fpm over there
    We are in a proportional system so every vote counts and the 1000 votes in bcharreh got fpm an mp in Koura
     
    L

    La Blague

    Well-Known Member
    good
    why not

    i am all for mending major issues between christians,
    that said

    politically donkey bnahe will lose a l,ot from making such move with ga3ga3
    cause part of his base vote kermal ehden massacre, when this is gone,he will lose them for others ( tayyar especially)

    many were like voting for him, due to his loss
    if he makes peace with his killer, ( which is fine by me ) he will lose those voters , who might be between 500-1000 but they are sizable once you consider that marada total voters in zgharta were 20k..

    a loss of 500-1000 is painful
    keep in mind that part of the 20k ( was salim karam 1600 votes) who will surely not vote marda again..
    thats 18500... less lets say 1000 thata 17500

    thats barely 1 1/2 and few more mistrakes and marada are donw to be 1 MP show
    Especially if Tayyar nominates a minister from zgharta again.
    I also heard LF are seriously considering a minister from zgharta Cazaa ( from Meziara I think)
    It will weaken Marada even more
     
    Aegon

    Aegon

    Member
    Bro,
    Franjiyeh and Geagea are allying or coming to some sort of communication/dialogue because they want to block another 6 years of FPM in the reign after PMA. It is their right kameina to do so. Just the same way that Kataeb are allying with FPM.
    If Kataeb are allied with FPM then why are theny not mentioned to take part in the next government?
     
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