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2019 Coronavirus Disease "COVID-19" [Russia approved first Covid-19 vaccine]

Dr. Strangelove

Nuclear War Expert
Staff member
مراسلة
mtv:
طلب سيّارة إسعاف لنقل مراسلة تلفزيون "الجديد" راشيل الحسيني من نقطة المصنع الحدوديّة بعد سقوطها أرضاً نتيجة ارتفاع حرارتها
 
Again, with all things YOU are assuming, the herd immunity might very well still play its role.
Social distancing is fine for a while, as to not overwhelm the medical system. But unless you eradicate the virus from the last human being infected on Earth, an outbreak is still possible anywhere, anytime.

Are you sure that the virus will not mutate to re-infect everyone again? are you sure that there will be no re-infections?

Are you sure that people under the age of 50 or 40 will not require ICUs and will not overwhelm hospitals?

Are you sure that a lot of young people will not have any sort of post recovery damages to their organs?

If you are not sure then this is a gamble and a very dangerous gamble.
 

Abou Sandal

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Herd immunity in an uncontrolled fashion essentially means letting people die:
1. The general population will still have critical cases, it’s not exclusive to the elderly but at much lower rates. 0.2% of 1 million still is 2000 persons. Essentially letting it run wild will invariably mean complications for many which if more numerous than availability of respirators will lead to avoidable deaths
2. You cannot effectively isolate the elderly, it will still make it to them and wreak havoc especially in the presence of a mass outbreak. That was the point of the WaPo article.

Don’t get me wrong, we will still get herd immunity with quarantines but at a much lower human cost. It will just take more time.

No. Herd immunity doesn't mean letting people die. It means when faced with an outbreak and a very quick propagating virus, and your numbers show that a wide majority recover from it, then you can better protect the fragile minority by having the wide majority develop immunity, hence braking the chain that passes it to the vulnerable minority as much as possible.

But if we can't effectively isolate the elderly, as you say, then how is trying to isolate the whole population more feasible?
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
a typical muslim mentality

الحاقد الدني بوب وما يمثله يهاجم ويتمسخر على امريكا
وهو متل الجردون ناطر اميركا وترامب تكتشف دوا للكورونا عا احر من الجمر لينقذ حياته التافهة .

كتب بوب بل الاخبار .

بعد «كارثة» 11 أيلول، سأل الأميركيون عن «رامبو» و«سوبرمان» و«باتمان»، وأين اختفوا في تلك اللحظة. وحده رجل الإطفاء يومها تصدّى للمهمة وكان السبيل للنجاة. لم تنفع كل أساطير أميركا وأوهامها الجديدة والقديمة في منع المصير المحتوم. واليوم، أين هم مخترعو أدوية الصلع والعجز الجنسي ومستحضرات التجميل وماذا يفعلون؟ وماذا يقول دونالد ترامب للعاملين في البيت الأبيض عن تفوّق أميركا الهائل؟ وهل تنفع حاملات الطائرات وتكنولوجيا السلاح النووي يا رفيق دونالد؟
God bless USA.
If anyone can stop the Corona it's the USA and immense and technological and scientific knowledge
 

Abou Sandal

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Are you sure that the virus will not mutate to re-infect everyone again? are you sure that there will be no re-infections?

Are you sure that people under the age of 50 or 40 will not require ICUs and will not overwhelm hospitals?

Are you sure that a lot of young people will not have any sort of post recovery damages to their organs?

If you are not sure then this is a gamble and a very dangerous gamble.

The UK authorities and scientific community are sure that dealing with this outbreak by this way, in their country, with their capabilities, is a far better solution than going from an inevitable outbreak to another. Debate them and they might explain it better in their term.

To me, the theory itself is plausible, as long as no vaccine exists, and no full containment on the face of the Planet is anywhere visible. It's not just plausible, it is actually where we might be heading, unfortunately. And the Brits are already planning this next step ahead.
 

CitizenOfTheRepublic

Legendary Member
No. Herd immunity doesn't mean letting people die. It means when faced with an outbreak and a very quick propagating virus, and your numbers show that a wide majority recover from it, then you can better protect the fragile minority by having the wide majority develop immunity, hence braking the chain that passes it to the vulnerable minority as much as possible.

But if we can't effectively isolate the elderly, as you say, then how is trying to isolate the whole population more feasible?
On your first point, there are too many unknowns which makes a small variation of factors massively deadly. Taleb addressed that point at length. The non-elderly are still vulnerable at low proportions true but that translates to very high numbers. Numbers of dead that is. A good documented precedent for you is the Spanish flu. Philadelphia did not quarantine and relied on advisories for vulnerable people, St. Louis quarantined. The results were devastating for Philly.

On your second point, you are not isolating the whole population to shield them as you are in the case of the herd immunity. You are slowing down its exponential propagation everywhere. This translates to slower spread and more room to treat, react and isolate infections. It will result in herd immunity but at a much lower and controllable speed.

Mind you, herd immunity is what makes all outbreaks die out as it is the natural course of things.
 

Danny Z

Legendary Member
Hala2 sar hamma l 3alam toosal 3a sheghla. :cigar:
This is exactly the kind of attitude that makes Lebanon irreparable, people do not respect authority and they think they know better than the experts.
 
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Mrsrx

Not an expert!
Staff member
This is exactly the kind of attitude that makes Lebanon irreperable, people do not respect authority and they think they know better than the experts.
She is grappling at the last drops of attention she is getting before going into oblivion....better she does that without being a public danger as oblivion will be inevitable for her.
 

Dr. Strangelove

Nuclear War Expert
Staff member
Problem is why wasn't she in isolation if she felt that her temperature is going up and symptoms are starting.

We don't know if it's COVID-19 yet. Regardless, questions need to be asked about Aljadeed's monitoring protocol.

If Husseini was being monitored, then this probably shows how suddenly symptoms can appear.
 

Mrsrx

Not an expert!
Staff member
We don't know if it's COVID-19 yet. Regardless, questions need to be asked about Aljadeed's monitoring protocol.

If Husseini was being monitored, then this probably shows how quickly symptoms can appear.
Even if we do not know if flu symptoms start one should self isolate and assume it is.
 
The UK authorities and scientific community are sure that dealing with this outbreak by this way, in their country, with their capabilities, is a far better solution than going from an inevitable outbreak to another. Debate them and they might explain it better in their term.

To me, the theory itself is plausible, as long as no vaccine exists, and no full containment on the face of the Planet is anywhere visible. It's not just plausible, it is actually where we might be heading, unfortunately. And the Brits are already planning this next step ahead.

The UK authorities and scientific community might be wrong because they don't know all the facts. This is naive empiricism that Prof. Taleb is trying to explain.

Most virologists and epidemiologists are saying the best way to control the spread and slow it down is through social distancing, because this has been shown to work in Korea and China.
 

Mrsrx

Not an expert!
Staff member
Meanwhile in the US, because of the ignoramus in chief and the magnificent leader and visionary he is, we are still short on tests. The richest nation on earth triage the use of COVID19 tests. Man we are so great now.
Is there a good article or a source that shows how the situation on tests really is in the US?
 
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