2019 Coronavirus Disease "COVID-19" [USA Surpasses China in Total Confirmed Cases]

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  • TayyarBeino

    TayyarBeino

    Legendary Member
    دياب أصدر قرارا بمنع الخروج إلى الشوارع والطرقات ما بين 7 مساء و5 صباحاً
    الخميس ٢٦ آذار ٢٠٢٠ 17:47قضاء وأمن

    أصدر رئيس الحكومة حسان دياب اجراءات اضافية في إطار التشدد في مكافحة وباء كورونا، بناء على مقتضيات المصلحة العامة وفي إطار تفعيل الرقابة والتشدد الردعي من قبل الأجهزة العسكرية والأمنية كافة في قمع المخالفات بما يؤدي إلى عدم تفشي الوباء وانتشاره.
    وتضمنت تعليق العمل بين الساعة 7 مساء والساعة 5 صباحاً في جميع المحلات التجارية والسوبر ماركت ومؤسسات تصنيع وتخزين وبيع المواد الغذائية على اختلافها، ويستثنى من ذلك المطاحن والأفران والصيدليات والمصانع التي تنتج المستلزمات الطبية.
    بالإضافة إلى منع الخروج والولوج إلى الشوارع والطرقات خلال الفترة المشار إليها، عملاً بمراقبة النقل والإنتقال المنصوص عنها في الفقرة 3/ج من المادة الثانية من المرسوم الاشتراعي 102/ 83، على أن أن يبدأ العمل بها اعتباراً من تاريخ 27-3-2020.
     
    TayyarBeino

    TayyarBeino

    Legendary Member
    صدر عن مستشفى رفيق الحريري الجامعي التقرير اليومي عن آخر المستجدات حول فيروس كورونا المستجد وجاء فيه: "وصل مجموع الحالات التي ثبتت مخبريا إصابتها بفيروس الكورونا والتي عزلت في منطقة العزل الصحي في المستشفى الى 72 حالة، من ضمنها 6 حالات نقلت من مستشفيات أخرى.

    تماثل 3 إصابات بفيروس الكورونا للشفاء بعد أن جاءت نتيجة فحص الـ

    PCR
    سلبية في المرتين وتخلصها من كافة عوارض المرض.

    بلغ مجموع الحالات التي شفيت تماما من فيروس الكورونا منذ البداية 23 حالة شفاء.

    وضع المصابين بالكورونا مستقر ما عدا 4 حالات وضعها حرج، وجميعهم يتلقون العناية اللازمة في وحدة العزل.

    لمعرفة عدد الإصابات على كافة الأراضي اللبنانية يرجى متابعة التقرير اليومي الصادر عن وزارة الصحة العامة".
     
    vegojimbo

    vegojimbo

    Legendary Member
    I think both of you are partially right. With some viruses, herd immunity apparently is sufficient without vaccine (a majority don't need a vaccine to manage a seasonal recurring influenza).
    With other viruses, you may need.

    disclaimer: I speak on behalf of a retired epidemiologist who isn't updated on the late virus market development. That's the step father of my local sausage vendor, Abu Jamil.

    Doctor @Dr. Strangelove, @Dark Angel, @vegojimbo, your opinions?
    Well herd immunity can be achieved with either vaccination or immunity acquired by previous infection.
    The problem lies with the lack of data about whether people who recover from the coronavirus develop immunity and if this immunity is sustained. Some studies have shown individuals who have tested positive again after having fully recovered and tested negative. Other studies have shown individuals still being infectious for many weeks after considered recovered from the disease. The researchers haven't been able to even extract antibodies from recovered individuals and use them for infected ppl to check if they can control the disease.
    So we have a lot of unknowns with covid19 to consider the herd immunity approach viable. It's still too early to know those who recovered have developed long lasting immunity against the virus. And this is the major point in developing an effective vaccine. If you can't get long lasting immunity from the virus, then a vaccine is not much useful, hence there's no place for herd immunity. An example of this is the influenza. Each year a new vaccine is created from the strains of the last year's flu season since the virus mutates very fast that any immunity you develop against one strain is rendered useless by the evolution of the virus into new strains. Herd immunity doesn't work with influenza. You need studies to know whether you get lasting immunity from coronavirus before trying the herd immunity approach. You just can't resort to it without having all the data and hope for the best. You will be playing russian roulette with people's lives. And that is very very dangerous.

    There's also the notion that the virus is highly contagious and has a relatively high mortality rate (compared to influenza) and a much higher rate of hospitalization. So if the virus is allowed to spread unchecked, it will quickly overtax the health system and more people will die as result, who normally shouldn't have died if proper treatment was administered. And we have actual examples of this: Italy, Spain, Iran and the US.

    Now, it's true some diseases can be effectively controlled by the herd immunity approach like measles, rubella, chickenpox, etc... but some can't like Ebola because there are no approved vaccines for it (except in trials). And you just can't let Ebola spread unchecked bc it is highly contagious and very lethal.

    Bottom line, it's pretty much a monumental risk to use the herd immunity approach with a new virus without an effective vaccine in place since there are many unknowns. it becomes even borderline unethical, criminal if you opt for this approach without being prepared for it (actual provisions and protocols for biodefence in case of epidemics) and without knowing the health care system can cope with any unforeseen scenario.
     
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