Same as the last time.Where you think FPM stand for 2022?
I completely agree with @Mrsrx .Where you think FPM stand for 2022?
I agree Lebanon will be a failed state and warlord will take back control, kind of Somalia, Libya style.If no solution is found to our deposits in the banks to be able to withdraw it in higher rates/levels, and no solution is found for the unemployment then FPM and all the political class will hit rock bottom in next elections.
As I see it, there is no parliamentary elections and no President after Aoun for several years... until the scores are settled in the region.
I'd very surprised if no elections take place in 2022. I think FPM will probably have about the same number of votes, so if the turnout is higher, they might lose a couple of seats, just like the rest of the political parties. But I don't expect a big change.
One month after Aoun's death the FPM will become as irrelevant on the christian political scene as Danny Cham3oun is today.
Not really. Though Christians are driven more by their love of themselves than hatred for others as Muslims do, still self-interest will dictate their actions. The FPM took them on a road so so against their own interests and for that they paid a price so high that their long term survival in this land depends more on shias and sunnis continuing to hate each other. They are being overlooked so to speak with a well defined margin of corruption to operate within. The Christians will not like it or tolerate it for too long. Whether they have any power over it becomes a question of either pride or lack of common sense. You pick.If more people will hate on bassil from other sects.. FPM might survive two or four more years after Aoun's death.
Bassil is not dumb he wants this kind of hatred this is why he is building up on it!
Lebanon should have been a federal/vastly decentralized Republic since 1943. You have 18 sects and the major ones hate each other.The situation may change
There is no alternative to FPM and the other parties are too weak or small. Bassil has a lot of great people around him like Ziad Assouad who is a good leader.
i see Lebanon ending up being partitioned at best or federal at least. There is no escape nor way out to that. Lebanon as we know is over, this republic won’t survive. Imagine next Presidential election, it will be blocked and paralysed forever.
Muslims hate each other and Saudi won’t tolerate pro Iran stances. Sunni can’t live long far from Saudi. Saudi will make peace with Israel soon followed by the UAE and all GCC. Shiaa will not accept that and they will split
Christiams have no voice in this revolution and worst there is a very high anti Rahi, anti Aoun, anti Historic Christian stance among these young revolutionaries who have nothing to do with the National Pact and don’t understand why they need to split the country with Christian knowing that we are now a minority due to the illegal 1994 naturalisation, illégale transfer of 20,000 Sunni to Zgharta by Hariri and now illegal presence of Syrians refugees who will not get back to their country. Their children are born in Lebanon and won’t leave.
it will end up in Christian refusing to live like Dhimmis and asking for a full partition. Whether we will have a full partition or a federal country I don’t know yet, it will depend on Syria, Iran and Israel but for sure today’s Lebanon is over because 90% of the Muslims don't want it anymore. You can’t build a country if the other part doesn’t want it
There is no other strong party as a replacement for now. FPM has hundred of thousands of supporters. Just remember the Baabda support demo few months back.Nchalla FPM yekhsar ktir w nerteh. W yrakbo manzume 3an jdid kelkon sawa w yeklo khara bel rabech 3a mit sene.
For the sake of argument, why would anyone still support FPM given the current fiasco? Others are worse, fine, but even if with the “best” having the presidency and a large MP chunk and influential ministries things got to the abysmal state we’re in, then why what would 2 or 3 MPs more or less matter? The only logical conclusion is that this country is hopeless so either you believe (and want to participate in) a violent revolution or you leave if you can and try to make a better life for yourself and your childrenThere is no other strong party as a replacement for now. FPM has hundred of thousands of supporters. Just remember the Baabda support demo few months back.
No party is near that.
yes they need to evolve, have inter pan elections, new logo, refreshed engagement and keep focusing on returning Syrian refugees. That’s the biggest problem but also will accelerate partition