After Syria, is Lebanon next?

Skunk

Skunk

Active Member
Orange Room Supporter


Trump’s fastest way to Iran might be through Lebanon



The US is keeping itself busy in the regime-change department during the first two months of 2019. While a lot of recent focus has been on Venezuela, the US still maintains a strong anti-Iran stance which cannot go unnoticed.”


[...]

The real question then becomes: if the US is sincere in its aim of bringing down the Iranian government and if Europe, Russia, and China are successful in helping Iran elude US-enforced economic sanctions, at which point will the US actually take its military to Tehran for a genuine confrontation?

While the US has threatened war with Iran for decades, even shooting downits civilian aircraft in the process and refusing to apologize for it, the truth is that the US has constantly looked for ways to bring down the Iranian government as an alternative to relying on brute force. A clear example of this is a leaked release from the Hillary Clinton archives which states that the “best way to help Israel deal with Iran’s growing nuclear capability is to help the people of Syria overthrow the regime of Bashar Assad.”

This was a nice and hopeful strategy for a while, but after Russia and Iran intervened in support of the Syrian government, the US has essentially found Syria to be a lost cause. Iran has more influence in Syria than it ever would have had if not for the overwhelmingly violent support for the Syrian opposition from the US, NATO countries and the Gulf States, and Russia more-or-less emerged from the rubble of the Syrian battle arena as a major power-broker in the region, leaving the US on the sidelines. Remember that the US is supposedly withdrawing its military from Syria around April this year, further cementing the idea that the US has basically lost any meaningful leverage it has in the war-torn country. (In Vietnam War 2.0 fashion, the American military made sure to make as much of Syriauninhabitable as possible before it voluntarily decided it was time to leave the country, though that is a topic for a separate article).

[...]

The US may have lost a meaningful opportunity to confront Iran in Syria, but there is still one other major country in the region which it has not managed to raze to the ground just yet, which can potentially be another route to draw Iran into an open conflict or alternatively, remove (or attempt to remove) yet another key Iranian ally.

Just days ago, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, offered Iran’s support for the US-backed Lebanese military while speaking to reporters at Beirut’s airport not long after his arrival, having been met by Hezbollah lawmakers at his destination. His controversial comments followedHezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s calls to ask Iran to supply Lebanon with weapons and aerial defense systems to take on Israeli warplanes.

Over the past few years, the US’s steadfast ally Israel has been activelypreparing for a rematch with Hezbollah in Lebanon. In 2017, Israel hosted its largest military drill in 20 years, specifically designed to simulate a war with Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon.

In March last year, Israel simulated a multi-front war in which Russia had intervened to protect Syria from Israeli attacks. Such a scenario could only come about as a result of Israel’s true intention to take on Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF).

Just so we are clear: Israel practiced a full-on invasion of Lebanon, and then ran simulations to prepare for a scenario in which Russia – a nuclear power – had intervened in Syria to protect Syrian forces from Israeli aggression.

In February last year, thousands of US and Israeli troops took part in the biennial “Juniper Cobra” drill which also simulated a “massive ballistic missile attack against Israel” and in turn, the joint US-Israeli response. As far as we know, there is only one country likely capable of launching a massive ballistic missile attack against Israel, and that country is not Iran or Syria.

“According to Israeli intelligence,”Professor Noam Chomsky of MIT told me via email last year, “Hezbollah has lots of missiles based in many parts of Lebanon that are capable of serious damage to Israeli cities, and to take them all out would require quick virtual destruction of Lebanon, it seems.”

There are enough indications that if Israel goes to war in any of the arenas presented to it, that the US will support its endeavors to counter Iran militarily. If this is the case, then the US will almost certainly enough find itself in a disastrous war with Iran sooner or later, even if that war begins to open up in Beirut first.

(...)
 
  • Advertisement
  • Skunk

    Skunk

    Active Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    No it is Iran
    Then Iran instantly orders its proxies to open up the Israeli front in southern Lebanon in retaliation and strategical diversion.
    It's not very wise to go straight to Iran without shutting down all of its proxies first.
     
    AtheistForJesus

    AtheistForJesus

    Well-Known Member
    Then Iran instantly orders its proxies to open up the Israeli front in southern Lebanon in retaliation and strategical diversion.
    It's not very wise to go straight to Iran without shutting down all of its proxies first.
    No, Hizbullah is not next, no matter how badly you want it to be.
     
    Skunk

    Skunk

    Active Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    No, Hizbullah is not next, no matter how badly you want it to be.
    It is the time for Hizballa to surrender, lay down their arms and recognize the Lebanese state, if there's anything Lebanese left in them.
    This is what i want.
    I do not wish my country to be destroyed over and over and Proxy wars fought on our soil.

    you cannot have your cake and eat it too
    If you want be an outlaw, do Iran's bidding and constatly threaten wars.
    Then the inevitable will come and war you shall have.


    The end of the Islamic regime is nigh
    Hallelujah
     
    A

    Anti Iran

    New Member
    It is the time for Hizballa to surrender, lay down their arms and recognize the Lebanese state, if there's anything Lebanese left in them.
    This is what i want.
    I do not wish my country to be destroyed over and over and Proxy wars fought on our soil.

    you cannot have your cake and eat it too
    If you want be an outlaw, do Iran's bidding and constatly threaten wars.
    Then the inevitable will come and war you shall have.


    The end of the Islamic regime is nigh
    Hallelujah
    Russia is coming and will kick iran's butt out of Syria.
    Once the iranian army is back home, then Israel will take care of hezballlah and usa backed with gulfe state will finish off Iran
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    It is the time for Hizballa to surrender, lay down their arms and recognize the Lebanese state, if there's anything Lebanese left in them.
    This is what i want.
    I do not wish my country to be destroyed over and over and Proxy wars fought on our soil.

    you cannot have your cake and eat it too
    If you want be an outlaw, do Iran's bidding and constatly threaten wars.
    Then the inevitable will come and war you shall have.


    The end of the Islamic regime is nigh
    Hallelujah
    is this your personal opinion, or Gebran's hidden speech :p ?
     
    Skunk

    Skunk

    Active Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    is this your personal opinion, or Gebran's hidden speech :p ?
    I do hold personal opinions 3amo JustLeb :)
    Same as anyone else in Bassil's Tayyar, freedom of speech and the liberty in thinking is sacred here.
    You should join us.
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I do hold personal opinions 3amo JustLeb :)
    Same as anyone else in Bassil's Tayyar, freedom of speech and the liberty in thinking is sacred here.
    You should join us.
    ana heyk mabsout, sayyed horr mousta2el
    if I like what Bassil does I praise him, if not I criticize him
    you should try it yourself too, it feels good ;)
     
    Skunk

    Skunk

    Active Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    ana heyk mabsout, sayyed horr mousta2el
    if I like what Bassil does I praise him, if not I criticize him
    you should try it yourself too, it feels good ;)
    Nahhh
    you only criticize ;)
    and when you should praise, you prefer to remain silent :)
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Nahhh
    you only criticize ;)
    and when you should praise, you prefer to remain silent :)
    you should pay more attention to my posts :p
    "akbar menak b yaoum afham mennak b seni", fa kif isa ken akbar mennak b 2arn :D
     
    Skunk

    Skunk

    Active Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    you should pay more attention to my posts :p
    "akbar menak b yaoum afham mennak b seni", fa kif isa ken akbar mennak b 2arn :D
    I pay attention to your and all posts
    You’re the only one that manages to turn any thread related to any subject to an Anti Bassil thread.
    Taqayod Anti Bassili wade7 :)

    Honestly,
    I feel more Sayyed 7or and Mostaqel than yourself
    It’s our culture in FPM and al tayyar Al Bassili Al Bassel
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I pay attention to your and all posts
    You’re the only one that manages to turn any thread related to any subject to an Anti Bassil thread.
    Taqayod Anti Bassili wade7 :)
    I am a gifted person, I won't be sorry for that :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:


    Honestly,
    I feel more Sayyed 7or and Mostaqel than yourself
    It’s our culture in FPM and al tayyar Al Bassili Al Bassel
    this is what all who live in a bubble say, they don't know the reality until they try the real freedom
     
    Skunk

    Skunk

    Active Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I am a gifted person, I won't be sorry for that :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:




    this is what all who live in a bubble say, they don't know the reality until they try the real freedom
    I feel more free than ever
    Look! I criticize and express my opinion the way i see fit.
    My fellow FPMers respect my opinion, it is my right. And it is culturally taught in FPM and al Tayyar Al Bassili alazi antami lahou.

    A luxury non existent in any other Lebanese party without endorsing siyasat al takhween.

    Join us :)
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    "شرف للبنانيين أن يصل الرئيس (ميشال) عون ببندقية المقاومة (الى رئاسة الجمهورية) لا أن يصل مثل غيره على دبابة إسرائيلية" هذا ما قاله عضو كتلة الوفاء للمقاومة النائب نواف الموسوي، فقد قصد بشكل واضح بـ"الدبابة الاسرائيلية" الرئيس الشهيد بشير الجميل، فاستنفر نجله النائب نديم الجميل وسانده ابن عمه النائب سامي الجميل، وتحرك مناصرو القوات والكتائب والرئيس الجميل في الاشرفية مساء امس واوصلوا رسالتهم...

    ولكن ماذا عن موقف التيار الوطني الحر، الذي ناضل لسنوات طويلة من اجل عودة رئيسه (السابق) الى قصر بعبدا، من كلام الموسوي، الذي من المؤكد انه ليس زلة لسان بل مقصود من اجل توجيه اكثر من رسالة!

    فقد حاذر عدد من نواب "تكتل لبنان القوي" الذين حاولت وكالة "اخبار اليوم" الاتصال بهم، الرد على الموسوي، غير ان مصادر في التكتل، قالت: كلام الموسوي غير مقبول، فليست بندقية المقاومة من اوصلت الرئيس ميشال عون الى سدة الرئاسة، كما انه ليس مقبولا اتهام رئيس جمهورية سابق بالعمالة لاسرائيل.

    وشدد المصدر على ان شعبية العماد عون وبرنامجه اولا ثم التفاهم مع المقاومة وعدد من الاطراف الأخرى هي العوامل التي اوصلت عون الى الرئاسة وليس اي بندقية .

    "اخبار اليوم"

     
    AtheistForJesus

    AtheistForJesus

    Well-Known Member
    "شرف للبنانيين أن يصل الرئيس (ميشال) عون ببندقية المقاومة (الى رئاسة الجمهورية) لا أن يصل مثل غيره على دبابة إسرائيلية" هذا ما قاله عضو كتلة الوفاء للمقاومة النائب نواف الموسوي، فقد قصد بشكل واضح بـ"الدبابة الاسرائيلية" الرئيس الشهيد بشير الجميل، فاستنفر نجله النائب نديم الجميل وسانده ابن عمه النائب سامي الجميل، وتحرك مناصرو القوات والكتائب والرئيس الجميل في الاشرفية مساء امس واوصلوا رسالتهم...

    ولكن ماذا عن موقف التيار الوطني الحر، الذي ناضل لسنوات طويلة من اجل عودة رئيسه (السابق) الى قصر بعبدا، من كلام الموسوي، الذي من المؤكد انه ليس زلة لسان بل مقصود من اجل توجيه اكثر من رسالة!

    فقد حاذر عدد من نواب "تكتل لبنان القوي" الذين حاولت وكالة "اخبار اليوم" الاتصال بهم، الرد على الموسوي، غير ان مصادر في التكتل، قالت: كلام الموسوي غير مقبول، فليست بندقية المقاومة من اوصلت الرئيس ميشال عون الى سدة الرئاسة، كما انه ليس مقبولا اتهام رئيس جمهورية سابق بالعمالة لاسرائيل.

    وشدد المصدر على ان شعبية العماد عون وبرنامجه اولا ثم التفاهم مع المقاومة وعدد من الاطراف الأخرى هي العوامل التي اوصلت عون الى الرئاسة وليس اي بندقية .

    "اخبار اليوم"


    FPMers can deny it all they want but Aoun wouldn't have won the presidency if it weren't for Hizbullah.
    Take Hizbullah out of the equation, and you're left with Hariri, Jumblat, Berri, Geagea, Frangieh, and half of the Christians who can't stand Aoun.

    Even with Hizbullah's backing, Aoun only got 65% of the electoral vote.

    And yes, the Israeli invasion was the main reason behind Bachir's election.
    Just because he was a president doesn't mean "it's unacceptable to accuse him of treason". Mugabe was a president for crying out loud.
     
    Ice Tea

    Ice Tea

    Member


    “According to Israeli intelligence,”Professor Noam Chomsky of MIT told me via email last year, “Hezbollah has lots of missiles based in many parts of Lebanon that are capable of serious damage to Israeli cities, and to take them all out would require quick virtual destruction of Lebanon, it seems.”

    There are enough indications that if Israel goes to war in any of the arenas presented to it, that the US will support its endeavors to counter Iran militarily. If this is the case, then the US will almost certainly enough find itself in a disastrous war with Iran sooner or later, even if that war begins to open up in Beirut first.

    (...)

    Exactly, if any of those Islamic fanatics think they stand a chance against Israel is further proof how Islam makes one mentally handicapped. Israel could literally destroy Lebanon in 5 minutes. Their only 'disadvantage' compared to the Islamic terrorists is that they are to humane when it comes to war, they always try to minimize civilian casualties who are most of the times terrorist supporters and the terrorists' own relatives. But if Hezbollah can really cause such demage this time, don't think Israel will hesitate in doing what they have been warning for years now. I've been saying this, the next war will be quick but EXTREMELY destructive for Lebanon, the South especially will probably end up looking worse than Aleppo or Raqqa. No one to blame but the terrorists and their cult of death.
     
    Skunk

    Skunk

    Active Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Exactly, if any of those Islamic fanatics think they stand a chance against Israel is further proof how Islam makes one mentally handicapped. Israel could literally destroy Lebanon in 5 minutes. Their only 'disadvantage' compared to the Islamic terrorists is that they are to humane when it comes to war, they always try to minimize civilian casualties who are most of the times terrorist supporters and the terrorists' own relatives. But if Hezbollah can really cause such demage this time, don't think Israel will hesitate in doing what they have been warning for years now. I've been saying this, the next war will be quick but EXTREMELY destructive for Lebanon, the South especially will probably end up looking worse than Aleppo or Raqqa. No one to blame but the terrorists and their cult of death.

    Hizballa need to understand that there’s no way they’re walking out of the next war victorious let alone alive.

    However the problem is they answer to Iran and do not recognize Lebanon
    There’s no way talking sense into them laying down arms avoiding unnecessary total destruction and mass fatalities in an already lost war.
     
    C

    CK10452

    New Member
    It would be foolish for Hizbollah to trigger another major war with Israel. Beside the major destruction and death it will cause mostly in it's regions, I believe it would also trigger a mass exodus of Shia out of Lebanon changing the demographic balance. There is only so much a people can take before they completely bail out of a country.
     
    Top