Informational AMA (Ask Me Anything) with Peto Lucem on the situation in Syria

Jo

Administrator
Master Penguin
#1
Hey Guys,

I would like to welcome our newest member, @Peto Lucem, to the forum.
He ( https://twitter.com/PetoLucem ) has been, since the beginning of the war, one of the most valuable analyst present online. His maps have been shared repeatedly all over the web.

Peto has agreed to do an AMA (Ask Me Anything) with us here on the forum. So, guys, please start posting your questions regarding the situation in the region and he will try as much as he can to answer them.

As usual, questions that break the rules will be deleted.

Thanks,
Jo
 
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  • HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    #3
    Thanks Peto for the valuable maps and updates you have been posting
    Your news has a high degree of professionalism and credibility

    Cheers.

    My question is

    Why didn't Iran assist more , especially in providing gear, equipments and men ?

    Is there any conflict or more like a healthy competition between the Russians and Iranians in the theatre of operation from Iraq to Yemen and Syria ?
     

    My Moria Moon

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    #4
    Peto,

    How do we know for sure you serve us reliable and factual info? In other words, what is your own source of information and how do you get them?
     

    Iron Maiden

    Well-Known Member
    #5
    Hello Peto,

    what do you think are the goals of russia in northern syria? are they just securing their direct perimeter or will they help the syrian army regain the north and finish the battle for aleppo ?
     

    DLT

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    #6
    Hello Peto,

    Thank you for joining the Orangeroom :)

    I would love to know your opinion about what is going to happen to Lebanon in the short-term and long-term.

    And how do you see the middle east 1 year from now? the borders? stability?

    Thank you.
     
    #8
    Hi Peto i'm one of your followers on twitter and really like your updated map of the syrian conflict.
    Where and when will the Syrian army offensive in the north stop? reaching the Orontes river and Khan Shaykhoun? Liberating and reaching Aleppo city (including all of idlib)?
    Thank you
     

    Republican

    Legendary Member
    #9
    Hello Peto,

    What do you think will happen in northern Syria, will the Kurds connect Ifreen to Kobane in coordination with the Russians and the Syrian government, hence blocking the rebels/qaeda/isis from their turkish supply line?

    And how far do think the Russians will go? Will they be satisfied with clearing Idlib, Lattakia and Aleppo and preserving what has become to be known as the 'useful Syria' and leave it at that, or will they work on reestablishing government control over all lost Syrian lands?
     

    Mozz

    Active Member
    #11
    Peto,

    Few questions, hopefully you can shed some light on them.

    1. When do you think the Syrian war will end ? and how ?

    2. Is Syria heading to partition ? and how do you see it implemented ? Will Lebanon be affected in the partition ?

    3. Can the SAA still resist or better yet, attack, for a long time ?

    Thank you
     
    #12
    Thanks for joining the OrangeRoom.

    What are your thoughts on the current SAA offensives

    Do you have further information about the situation on Palmyra? Are there any attempts or plannings for an attack in the near future or will the other fronts assigned a higher priority?
     
    #13
    I guess the very normal question, Who controls Syria right now?
    Well, I would say the side which controls the part of Syria, in which most of the population lives. This is still the Syrian Government. ISIS may control a large chunk of Syria's east, but most of these parts are vast desert areas with a sparse population.
     
    #14
    Thanks Peto for the valuable maps and updates you have been posting
    Your news has a high degree of professionalism and credibility

    Cheers.

    My question is

    Why didn't Iran assist more , especially in providing gear, equipments and men ?

    Is there any conflict or more like a healthy competition between the Russians and Iranians in the theatre of operation from Iraq to Yemen and Syria ?
    Thank you. :)

    There was no need for Iran to provide more gear or equipment in the early stages of war. The Syrian army's biggest problem back then were defections and deficits in the field of military C&C. So Iran focused on the military training of new recruits and helped forming the 150k - 200k strong National Defence Forces. It obtained other country's to provide the Syrian Government with better hardware and replacements.
     
    #16
    Hello Peto,

    what do you think are the goals of russia in northern syria? are they just securing their direct perimeter or will they help the syrian army regain the north and finish the battle for aleppo ?
    Russia will prob. assist the Syrian Government in recapturing the two most important freeways in the country: M5 (Damascus - Homs - Aleppo) and M4 (Latakia - Idlib - Aleppo) highway + nearby cities and towns. Aleppo may come into focus later if other important objectives have been achieved.
     
    #17
    Is Damascus in danger of falling to the rebels in the long term?
    No. SAA still has a very large percentage of its total manpower deployed in and near the capital and large parts of their elite formations like the 4th Armd. Div. and the Rep. Guards, not to mention Syrias allied forces, which are steadily increasing. The east Ghouta is not in imminent danger of falling to the Government, but latest - long prepared - insurgent offensives, like the one on Adra or al Assad suburb, failed. This is a bad sign and says a lot about the insurgency's remaining capabilities in this area. The last (false) hope of the insurgency is the Western Ghouta, but what analysts often seem to ignore is the fact that this area is, because of its proximity to Israel, the most fortified area in whole Syria. Without airstrikes, a breakthrough is impossible.
     
    #18
    Hi Peto i'm one of your followers on twitter and really like your updated map of the syrian conflict.
    Where and when will the Syrian army offensive in the north stop? reaching the Orontes river and Khan Shaykhoun? Liberating and reaching Aleppo city (including all of idlib)?
    Thank you
    You are very welcome. I think there is no deadline nor for Syria nor for Russia. The attacks will continue for a long time. As pointed out earlier, Russia's and Syria's priority seems to be the recapture of M5 (Damascus - Homs - Aleppo) and M4 (Latakia - Idlib - Aleppo) highway. Aleppo will have to wait I guess.

    I think what we have seen so far was not the big offensive many predicted. It seems in Hama plain (not Ghab), SAA attacked to test enemy's defences. As soon as a resistance nest has been identified, RuAF jumped in and finished them off. So in case of Hama, all ops seem to be a series of probing attacks or even a feint, to force the enemy to redeploy forces from Idlib to Hama.
     
    #19
    Hello Peto,

    What do you think will happen in northern Syria, will the Kurds connect Ifreen to Kobane in coordination with the Russians and the Syrian government, hence blocking the rebels/qaeda/isis from their turkish supply line?
    Thats the question. It is sure to say that Turkey - at the moment - actively seeking escalation with the Kurds. Just ask yourself how many ISIS positions Turkey attacked and how many of the Kurdish. But in long term, a sort of special position for Kurdish areas is conceivable. This would have been impossible in the past because of the obstinate attitude of the Turkish Government. However, the active Russian involvement in the war may change that in the future. Because, after all, the economic relations between these two states are intact and still quite profitable. And nor Russia or Turkey are interested in a large scale - maybe even global - conflict. However, we also have to see how successful the newly formed "Syrian Democratic Force" is. My guess is that Turkey won't be happy seeing a coalition of insurgents and Kurdish fighters fighting against IS. Why should Kurds return the "oppositions" the areas they conquered?
     
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    #20
    Hello Peto,

    And how far do think the Russians will go? Will they be satisfied with clearing Idlib, Lattakia and Aleppo and preserving what has become to be known as the 'useful Syria' and leave it at that, or will they work on reestablishing government control over all lost Syrian lands?
    I partly answered this question before, but I would like to add a postscript: re-establishing Government control over all lost Syrian lands will be VERY difficult without larger commitment of the Iraqi Government. So far, they need most of their resources to eliminate ISIS forces in their own territory. If ISIS can be repelled in the most important areas there, like in al Anbar Governorate, an attack on eastern Syria by Iraqi army or militias are conceivable. In that case, the situation would require a total reappraisal.
     

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