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Are Israel and Hezbollah Preparing for War?

JustLeb

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Orange Room Supporter
Are Israel and Hezbollah Preparing for War? | The Nation

Lebanon-Israel border—Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah are on the rise again, and according to a Hezbollah commander based in southern Lebanon, the nature of their next conflict will be shaped by his organization’s gains in the Syrian civil war.

Meeting in the rugged, mountainous Lebanese interior near the southern border, where occupying Israeli forces were driven out by Hezbollah in 2000 and suffered a second setback in the 2006 war, the commander feels emboldened by his Syrian spoils. “Commander Samir,” who declines to use his real name because he is not authorized to speak to the press, contends that his organization has moved new Russian anti-aircraft weapons and long-range missiles from Syria to this border region.

“I can assure you we have a nice, shiny new anti-aircraft system to show them,” says Samir, referring to Hezbollah’s planned response to an Israeli aerial assault. “We’ve got heavy long-range missiles, directly from the Russians, that can hit anywhere in Israel.” He denied requests to see the weapons, citing security concerns.

While he boasts about Hezbollah’s reinforced military capability, Samir says war with Israel isn’t on the agenda at the moment. But he’s convinced that at some point there will be another round of conflict, one that will be very costly for both sides but one that his forces will win.

It appears that Commander Samir’s goal in speaking to The Nation about the Party of God’s readiness to engage Israel is to send a message of deterrence. Friction in the south has been building for months, and includes claims of the Israeli navy firing at a Lebanese fishing boat in Lebanese waters, Israel’s removal of a Lebanese roadblock on the border, and Israeli soldiers forcefully dispersing protesters on the Lebanese side of the border fence.

In February, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a speech saying his forces could hit Israel’s nuclear reactor in Dimona—which is in the southern Negev Desert, far from the Lebanese border—while at the same time stating his belief that there would not be a war this year. Shortly afterward, Lebanese President Michel Aoun told Egyptian media that he saw Hezbollah’s arms as essential to Lebanon’s defense from Israel.

Aoun, who owes his position to Hezbollah’s parliamentary coalition, is now a strong political ally of the Shiite movement. Even so, his open support of and confidence in an armed entity not under Lebanese army control was unprecedented. The statement was met by Israeli threats to strike anywhere in Lebanon if attacked.

These tensions turned into open conflict in Syria in recent days after Israel carried out airstrikes on what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called “advanced weapons” destined for Hezbollah, and the Syrian government responded by firing anti-aircraft missiles at the intruders. Although Israel has often carried out strikes in Syria in recent years, mostly to target Hezbollah and its interests, this was the first time the Syrian government directly retaliated.

One element in the hardening confrontation seems to be Hezbollah’s fear of the Trump administration’s hostility toward Iran and embrace of hardline Israeli politics, coupled with the Gulf States’ finding common cause with Israel in the regional polarization between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The commander, who describes rising through Hezbollah’s ranks since the 1980s, worries that Washington will now encourage an Israeli confrontation with Hezbollah as a way of fighting a proxy war with Iran.

“Hezbollah is like the cane that Iran uses,” says Commander Samir, referring to his organization’s transformation from a domestic militia, before the Syrian war, to a regional fighting force engaged in conflicts from Yemen and Iraq to Syria on behalf of its main patron. “If the Americans want to break the Iranian cane, then the Israelis will attack Hezbollah.”

Ahmad Moussalli, a political science professor and specialist in Islamic movements at the American University of Beirut, believes any expanding conflict between Israel and Hezbollah will play out in Syria rather than Lebanon. “A war in Lebanon will be very devastating for both sides,” says Moussalli. “Both sides are ready to have a kind of fight in Syria, but not in Lebanon. On the Syrian front, it’s a very different game.”

When Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006, it achieved none of its military objectives, took heavy casualties, and left Hezbollah emboldened and admired across the Arab world for forcing an Israeli retreat for a second time in less than a decade. But the Israeli military killed more than 1,000 Lebanese civilians, wounded over 4,400, and displaced around 1 million people in a country with a total population of only 4 million at the time.

Hezbollah emerged in the 1985 out of Lebanon’s civil war as a Shiite Islamist and nationalist movement that primarily fought Israel’s occupation of the country through guerrilla tactics. It has always received funding and support from Iran, often via Syria, but the militia’s growing role in the Syria conflict, where it has been crucial in turning the tide in the regime’s favor, has transformed its military wing into a highly trained and equipped conventional ground force with regional reach.

Now Hezbollah directly controls vast tracts of land in Syria, including in the south of the country near the Israeli border. Nasrallah has said his organization will maintain control of the land for the time being, while Commander Samir contends that it can be used to open a second front against Israel in the event of hostilities.

Moussalli also notes this possibility, highlighting the fact that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’s Quds forces, Iraqi militiamen, and Hezbollah all now have a military presence on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights and are willing to fight there if needed.

On the political side, the realignment of regional political forces resulting from the Syrian War seems to be shaping Hezbollah’s tensions with Israel—and its relations with old allies. On the one hand, Commander Samir argues that Arab states, primarily in the Gulf, that have supported Syrian rebels are interested in having Israel damage his organization; on the other, he no longer sees his fight as connected to the Palestinian struggle.

“We don’t consider ourselves as allies with Palestinians [anymore],” Samir states firmly, expressing frustration with Hamas’s split with Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian regime in 2012, as the revolt in Syria turned into a civil war. It is a bold statement for a high-ranking official of a movement whose leader has always said he is also fighting to free Palestine. Indeed, Hezbollah’s longtime solidarity with the Palestinian cause served both the Shiite movement’s political interests in Lebanon as well as a common regional vision. For Palestinians, Hezbollah’s successful resistance to Israeli occupation was an inspiration for their own struggle.

But most Palestinians have been sympathetic to the Syrian uprising and oppose the brutality and repression of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which puts them in direct conflict with Hezbollah. While the regime has retained the loyalty of a few small Palestinian factions, Yarmouk, the large Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus, as well as other Palestinian camps in Syria have seen years of intense government bombardment and siege. (Yarmouk has also faced invasion and assault from ISIS and the formerly Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front.)

Since Israel’s 2014 war in Gaza, Iran has started providing some support to Hamas again and, according to the Samir, so has Hezbollah. Yet the war in Syria, he says, has changed his perspective not only on Hamas but also on general Palestinian aspirations. “The reason that we are supporting them now,” he says, “is because they are an enemy of my enemy.”
 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
and thats when you can tell its a load of bullcrap

it does not shock me, and I don't think it is way out of reason.
Putin is putting his magic fingers everywhere, so giving a blind eye on Iranian giving some kind of Russian long range missile to HA does not shock me.
Putin is the strong guy in the moumana3a axis in Syria and it has been widely accepted that weapons are flooding to HA from Syria, so in some sort it is not bothering him
 

Mighty Goat

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
They are not preparing for war. They are ensuring each other's military equivalence and military coexistence. They are legitimizing each other's powers and recognizing each other as the players in the field of discourse of war.
 

JeanH

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
it does not shock me, and I don't think it is way out of reason.
Putin is putting his magic fingers everywhere, so giving a blind eye on Iranian giving some kind of Russian long range missile to HA does not shock me.
Putin is the strong guy in the moumana3a axis in Syria and it has been widely accepted that weapons are flooding to HA from Syria, so in some sort it is not bothering him
he says "directly from russia"
 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
he can say whatever he wants sure, but that doesnt make it true

my point is that, the details don't have to be accurate. I mean HA might have Russian long range missiles but not necessarily delivered by the Russians themselves.
 

JeanH

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
my point is that, the details don't have to be accurate. I mean HA might have Russian long range missiles but not necessarily delivered by the Russians themselves.
ok ok i was only pointing out this sentence notice i removed the rest when i replied
 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter

"حزب الله" لا يكترث لتهويل اسرائيل وعقوبات اميركا: من يُهدد لا يُنفّذ
الأربعاء 11 تشرين الأول 2017 - 05:20



ليست المرّة الاولى التي يُطلق فيها مسؤولون اسرائيليون التهديدات ضد "حزب الله" الذي يعتبرونه المصدر الاول المُزعزع لسلامة اراضيهم. ولا يغفل الامين العام للحزب السيد حسن نصرالله ومسؤولو الحزب في مناسبات عدة الاشارة الى جبهة الجنوب التي يحتل الاسرائيلي جزءا منها وتأكيد الجهوزية العسكرية للتصدّي له دفاعاً عن السيادة اللبنانية. وغالباً ما كانت تُترجم التهديدات المتبادلة بعمل عسكري على الارض كانت ذروته في العام 2006 حيث اغار الطيران الحربي الاسرائيلي ولمدة شهر فوق الاراضي اللبنانية كافة مُسبباً دماراً هائلا لا تزال بعض مشاهده حاضرة في بعض المناطق، الى جانب طبعاً الخسائر بالارواح.

جديد لغة التهديد والتهويل الاسرائيلي تصريحات وزير الدفاع افيغدور ليبرمان امس حيث وضع الجيش وكافة مؤسسات الدولة اضافةً الى سوريا في دائرة الاستهداف الإسرائيلي، وتزامن ذلك مع تصاعد حدّة اللهجة الاميركية تجاه الحزب قبل ايام من بدء تنفيذ رزمة العقوبات الاقتصاديه عليه، اذ دعا مسؤولون في الادارة الاميركية حلفاء بلدهم إلى تصنيف "حزب الله" المدعوم من إيران منظمة إرهابية، وعدم القيام بـ "الفصل الخاطئ" بين ذراع سياسية للحزب واخرى عسكرية، مخصصين مكافأة مالية لمن يُدلي بمعلومات حول اماكن وجود مطلوبين في الحزب ضالعين بعمليات ارهابية بحسب المسؤولين الاميركيين.

لا يكترث "حزب الله" للتهديدات الاسرائيلية ولا للعقوبات الاميركية، فوفق مصادره "اعتدنا عليها، ومن يُهدد لا يُنفّذ، مع العلم اننا نأخذ التهديدات الاسرائيلية في الاعتبار، ونحن على يقين بان هذا الكيان لن يقوم بأي حرب لا اليوم ولا في المستقبل القريب، لانه يعلم تماماً ان اي حرب سيشنّها ستكلّفه ثمناً غالياً، كما انه لا يستطيع التكهّن بمستوى الردّ عليه ولا بالبُعد الجغرافي للحرب ولا من سيكون في الطرف المقابل"، مؤكدةً "ان الحرب المُقبلة مع اسرائيل لن تقتصر على مشاركة "حزب الله" فيها وانما محور المقاومة ككل".

واعتبرت عبر "المركزية" "ان رسائل التهديد الاسرائيلية والاجراءات الاميركية جزء من الحرب النفسية على الحزب عبر ادوات عدة، عسكرية، اعلامية واقتصادية بهدف الضغط على المقاومة".

وفي حين قللت "من اهمية تأثير العقوبات الاميركية مباشرة علينا، لان معظم تحويلاتنا المالية لا تمرّ عبر المصارف"، الا انها لم تستبعد في الوقت نفسه تأثيرها السلبي على الاقتصاد عامة وعلى قسم كبير من اللبنانيين خاصة (بيئتنا الحزبية)"، اعتبرت مصادر الحزب "ان اعلان البيت الابيض عن جوائز مالية لقاء معلومات عن قادة في المقاومة دليل ضعف، لان من يستخدم العنصر المالي "لاغراء" اصحاب المعلومات ضعيف وغير قادر على تحديد مواقع المطلوبين، مع العلم ان الاميركيين استخدموا هذه الطريقة في مناسبات عدة ولم تؤد الى نتيجة".

وفي وقت ذهبت بعض التحليلات والقراءات في اشتداد الخناق الدولي حول "حزب الله" الى حد القول ان عملية انهائه بدأت بعدما كانت المهمة الاولى تفتيت "داعش"، اكدت المصادر "اننا لا نقبل ابداً المقارنة بيننا وبين "داعش". فالاخيرة تنظيم ارهابي ضد الانسانية يتمدد اجرامه الى مختلف الدول ولا قاعدة شعبية له، بينما نحن حركة مقاومة شعبية ولدت من رحم الشعب اللبناني ومعاناته من الاحتلال الاسرائيلي لارضه ولدينا وزراء وكتلة نيابية كبيرة. مشكلتنا بالمفهوم الاميركي اننا نحارب اسرائيل، ولو كنّا عكس ذلك لكانت اعتبرتنا من اهم المنظمات في العالم التي تطالب بالحرية".

واسفت مصادر الحزب "لما يُنشر في بعض الصحف عن وجود تململ في صفوف بيئة "حزب الله" بسبب العقوبات الاميركية"، موضحةً "اننا اعتدنا على هذه الاساليب الاعلامية المستمرة منذ عشرين عاماً الى الان، ونحن على قناعة ان جمهورنا يزداد يوماً بعد يوم تعلّقاً بالمقاومة، وكلما اشتد الخناق علينا كلما زادت ثقة جمهورنا بنا".

وفي انتظار ما ستحمله الايام المقبلة من تطورات متّصلة برسائل التهديد وسخونة جبهة الجنوب، ختمت مصادر "حزب الله" بالتأكيد على "اهمية تحييد لبنان عن صراعات المنطقة والنأي به عن ازماتها، خصوصاً اننا مقبلون على استحقاق انتخابي بدأنا العدّة له ترشيحاً وتنظيماً، والامين العام السيد حسن نصرالله شدد على ذلك في اكثر من اطلالة، كما ان معظم القوى السياسية اجمعت على اهمية تحييد البلد والانكباب على معالجة الازمات الاقتصادية التي تؤرق اللبنانيين".

 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Why Israel and Hezbollah are heading for a new, devastating war in the Middle East | The Independent

This past Sunday, with great fanfare, Israeli politicians and military leaders finally announced to the Israeli public – and to the country’s enemies – that they had successfully layered the nation’s airspace with the most sophisticated anti-missile defence system ever developed.

Long-range Iranian or Syrian missiles, as it is anticipated, would mainly be handled by the US-backed Arrow system at high altitudes; smaller, but nevertheless extremely accurate, missiles from Hezbollah in Lebanon or Syria would be the domain of the US-backed David’s Sling, while drones, artillery and smaller rockets will continue to be dealt with by the (also US-backed) Iron Dome.

In mid-March, the new Arrow-3 missile system had seen its first successful use, knocking out a Syrian missile fired towards Israel in response to yet another Israeli Air Force attack within Syria, allegedly targeting Hezbollah positions.

This unprecedented ratcheting up of military confrontation in the Levant is raising significant concerns that a climactic war at least involving Hezbollah and Israel is increasingly likely, just 11 years after the last inconclusive round of hostilities left both sides licking their wounds and promising a “final” engagement.

In 13 years of watching these two bitter opponents, I have never seen such a high degree of anxiety among Lebanon’s political elite that war is coming.

This incredibly unstable and violent moment in geopolitics is undermining the central element that kept Israel and Hezbollah from overstepping each other’s red lines: fear, or rather a balance of fear based on the belief that the next conflict will be devastating for all sides.

When the next war hits, Israel will not only be well positioned to defend against Hezbollah’s main weapon – rockets launched against military and civilian targets – but it will also employ the unrestrained bombing of all Lebanese infrastructure and “supportive” civilian populations, ensuring that other Lebanese citizens turn on Hezbollah as a result.

Unfortunately for the balance of terror, Hezbollah and their allies seem to believe, with some cause, that the Israelis are wrong. First, a vicious bombing of all Lebanon will likely produce greater solidarity among Lebanese, rather than lead to any combination of ill-equipped communities to somehow confront Hezbollah.

Second, Hezbollah is not the same as the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), which was expelled from Lebanon after the devastating Israeli invasion in the summer of 1982. It is a deeply rooted Lebanese political grouping that has significant support in the country. As the leader of Hezbollah, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, has long reminded the Israelis, party supporters and especially his base among the Shia people of Lebanon are not going to get on a ship and move to Tunis as PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat once did. Most will stay and fight for their country.

Third, Hezbollah and its key partner Iran seem to believe that Israel’s nuclear and chemical facilities, and even its new missile system, are vulnerable and could be easily overcome.


Finally, just as Israeli leaders seem overly confident that other Lebanese communities will quickly turn on Hezbollah if hit hard enough, Nasrallah and other key Hezbollah leaders I have met over the years seem equally entranced by the idea that the Israelis have become a soft people protected by a soft army that will not be able to collectively bear the dislocation resulting from Hezbollah’s land, sea and air strikes.

The core problem with all of these – mostly inaccurate – assumptions is that they are providing vital lubricant for the main casus bellithat has now fully emerged in Southern Syria and the Occupied Golan. Indeed, both Hezbollah and Iran are very likely continuing to pursue the sort of underground military infrastructure in Southern Syria that they successfully pioneered against the Israelis in South Lebanon and more recently in other parts of Lebanon and Syria. For the Israelis, this activity is now being characterised in no uncertain terms as an existential red line.

Not surprisingly, the pace and scope of Israeli strikes has expanded in recent weeks and months. At the same time, the Syrian government, Hezbollah and Iran have now also made it clear that pushing the carte blanche that Israel claims in the skies above Lebanon and Syria will lead to greater counter-force.

As these dynamics gather pace, both Hezbollah and Israel can also claim that they were acting defensively if a major conflict starts in Syria or in Lebanon. On the one hand, Israel will argue that it was forced to pre-empt a growing terror threat on its border, while on the other Hezbollah and its allies will argue that they were illegally attacked and responded proportionately in order to maintain the balance of terror.

Perhaps even more problematic, Iran and Hezbollah have some reason to fear that the Trump administration, Russia and Syria’s al-Assad might find a suitable deal in the coming period that essentially deals out the Shia duo. Any attempt to sideline Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, however, would probably provoke a strong counter-reaction that could lead to a wider war. It would certainly leave both actors looking particularly vulnerable to an attempted knock-out blow by the Israelis.

At the very least, the new Trump administration considers Iran the main strategic enemy in the region. It has already signalled that it will pursue a more aggressive and confrontational policy, in sharp contrast to the previous Obama administration. As such, the White House and the US Congress are starting to take apart the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran while essentially assuring that there will be an unprecedented American support for Israel in the event of any conflict, no matter who is seen as “starting” it or how such a war is conducted.

On this score alone – the likely removal of American limitations on Israel – the balance of terror has been dramatically weakened.

Can anything be done to prevent the escalation of tensions? Sadly, it does not seem that any of the great powers, and especially the US, might intervene expeditiously and intelligently to address the root causes of conflict in this part of the world, much less the immediate triggers of a new Levantine war. One can only wait and hope that all sides recognise the Middle East simply cannot bear any more destruction and bloodshed.
 

GrumpForTrump

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Why Israel and Hezbollah are heading for a new, devastating war in the Middle East | The Independent

This past Sunday, with great fanfare, Israeli politicians and military leaders finally announced to the Israeli public – and to the country’s enemies – that they had successfully layered the nation’s airspace with the most sophisticated anti-missile defence system ever developed.

Long-range Iranian or Syrian missiles, as it is anticipated, would mainly be handled by the US-backed Arrow system at high altitudes; smaller, but nevertheless extremely accurate, missiles from Hezbollah in Lebanon or Syria would be the domain of the US-backed David’s Sling, while drones, artillery and smaller rockets will continue to be dealt with by the (also US-backed) Iron Dome.

In mid-March, the new Arrow-3 missile system had seen its first successful use, knocking out a Syrian missile fired towards Israel in response to yet another Israeli Air Force attack within Syria, allegedly targeting Hezbollah positions.

This unprecedented ratcheting up of military confrontation in the Levant is raising significant concerns that a climactic war at least involving Hezbollah and Israel is increasingly likely, just 11 years after the last inconclusive round of hostilities left both sides licking their wounds and promising a “final” engagement.

In 13 years of watching these two bitter opponents, I have never seen such a high degree of anxiety among Lebanon’s political elite that war is coming.

This incredibly unstable and violent moment in geopolitics is undermining the central element that kept Israel and Hezbollah from overstepping each other’s red lines: fear, or rather a balance of fear based on the belief that the next conflict will be devastating for all sides.

When the next war hits, Israel will not only be well positioned to defend against Hezbollah’s main weapon – rockets launched against military and civilian targets – but it will also employ the unrestrained bombing of all Lebanese infrastructure and “supportive” civilian populations, ensuring that other Lebanese citizens turn on Hezbollah as a result.

Unfortunately for the balance of terror, Hezbollah and their allies seem to believe, with some cause, that the Israelis are wrong. First, a vicious bombing of all Lebanon will likely produce greater solidarity among Lebanese, rather than lead to any combination of ill-equipped communities to somehow confront Hezbollah.

Second, Hezbollah is not the same as the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), which was expelled from Lebanon after the devastating Israeli invasion in the summer of 1982. It is a deeply rooted Lebanese political grouping that has significant support in the country. As the leader of Hezbollah, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, has long reminded the Israelis, party supporters and especially his base among the Shia people of Lebanon are not going to get on a ship and move to Tunis as PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat once did. Most will stay and fight for their country.

Third, Hezbollah and its key partner Iran seem to believe that Israel’s nuclear and chemical facilities, and even its new missile system, are vulnerable and could be easily overcome.


Finally, just as Israeli leaders seem overly confident that other Lebanese communities will quickly turn on Hezbollah if hit hard enough, Nasrallah and other key Hezbollah leaders I have met over the years seem equally entranced by the idea that the Israelis have become a soft people protected by a soft army that will not be able to collectively bear the dislocation resulting from Hezbollah’s land, sea and air strikes.

The core problem with all of these – mostly inaccurate – assumptions is that they are providing vital lubricant for the main casus bellithat has now fully emerged in Southern Syria and the Occupied Golan. Indeed, both Hezbollah and Iran are very likely continuing to pursue the sort of underground military infrastructure in Southern Syria that they successfully pioneered against the Israelis in South Lebanon and more recently in other parts of Lebanon and Syria. For the Israelis, this activity is now being characterised in no uncertain terms as an existential red line.

Not surprisingly, the pace and scope of Israeli strikes has expanded in recent weeks and months. At the same time, the Syrian government, Hezbollah and Iran have now also made it clear that pushing the carte blanche that Israel claims in the skies above Lebanon and Syria will lead to greater counter-force.

As these dynamics gather pace, both Hezbollah and Israel can also claim that they were acting defensively if a major conflict starts in Syria or in Lebanon. On the one hand, Israel will argue that it was forced to pre-empt a growing terror threat on its border, while on the other Hezbollah and its allies will argue that they were illegally attacked and responded proportionately in order to maintain the balance of terror.

Perhaps even more problematic, Iran and Hezbollah have some reason to fear that the Trump administration, Russia and Syria’s al-Assad might find a suitable deal in the coming period that essentially deals out the Shia duo. Any attempt to sideline Iran and Hezbollah in Syria, however, would probably provoke a strong counter-reaction that could lead to a wider war. It would certainly leave both actors looking particularly vulnerable to an attempted knock-out blow by the Israelis.

At the very least, the new Trump administration considers Iran the main strategic enemy in the region. It has already signalled that it will pursue a more aggressive and confrontational policy, in sharp contrast to the previous Obama administration. As such, the White House and the US Congress are starting to take apart the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran while essentially assuring that there will be an unprecedented American support for Israel in the event of any conflict, no matter who is seen as “starting” it or how such a war is conducted.

On this score alone – the likely removal of American limitations on Israel – the balance of terror has been dramatically weakened.

Can anything be done to prevent the escalation of tensions? Sadly, it does not seem that any of the great powers, and especially the US, might intervene expeditiously and intelligently to address the root causes of conflict in this part of the world, much less the immediate triggers of a new Levantine war. One can only wait and hope that all sides recognise the Middle East simply cannot bear any more destruction and bloodshed.


Similar articles keep popping up every now and then. I would take them with a grain of salt.
 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Hezbollah threatens to 'surprise Israel' in next war - Arab-Israeli Conflict - Jerusalem Post

Hezbollah vows to “surprise Israel” during any upcoming war, upping the war of words between the Lebanese Shi’ite terror group and Israel.
In an interview with Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV channel on the 11th anniversary of the Second Lebanon War, the head of the group’s Executive Council Sayyed Hashem Safieddine said that Hezbollah has been changing and developing new military capabilities.

According to Safieddine, who oversees Hezbollah’s social and economic activities and was added to the United States counterterrorism blacklist in March, Israeli reports on Hezbollah’s weaponry are “inaccurate as the enemy intelligence agencies can never reach veracious data in this context.”

Israel fought against Hezbollah in the 34-day Second Lebanon War in 2006. Since then hostilities between them have been limited to occasional firing across the border and reported air strikes by Israel against Hezbollah leaders and military equipment in Syria, where the group is fighting in support of President Bashar Assad.

Last week Chief of Staff Lt.- Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said that the IDF has used the time since the Second Lebanon War to dramatically improve its abilities and now has better intelligence and operational capabilities than ever before.

According to Eisenkot, Hezbollah’s rockets are not particularly accurate at the moment and Israelis “should put things in perspective and not panic” regarding reports that Iran has helped Hezbollah to operate and manage underground weapons factories.

Speaking to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Eisenkot said that “decreasing Iranian influence in the areas near Israel’s borders is no less important than defeating Islamic State, and for Israel perhaps even more.”


Last March, the Kuwaiti Al-Jarida newspaper cited an unnamed deputy head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as saying that Hezbollah has operated and managed underground weapons factories set up by the IRGC in response to alleged Israeli strikes against weapons convoys in Syria.

According to the report, the factories can produce missiles with a range of over 500 kilometers as well as surfaceto- air and antitank missiles as well as unmanned aerial vehicles able to carry explosives.

A recent report by the French web magazine Intelligence Online identified the locations of two of the factories as well as the type of munitions they produce.

According to the report, one underground facility located near Hermel in northeastern Lebanon produces the Fateh- 110 rocket which can carry half-ton warheads and is relatively accurate with a range of 300 kilometers, covering the majority of Israel.

The second facility, located near the Mediterranean coast between the cities of Tyre and Sidon in southern Lebanon manufactures smaller munitions.


At a briefing with journalists last week Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman warned that the smuggling of sophisticated weaponry to Hezbollah was a redline for Israel, which will continue to act to prevent the group from getting them.

“We take everything seriously. We are certainly aware of the reports and we will do what needs to be done. This is a significant phenomenon and we cannot ignore it. Precise weapons such as these missiles are a challenge. Compared to past wars they will hit deep inside Israeli territory,” Liberman said.

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if it is true that HA is able to construct SAM missiles that are effective against israeli airplanes, this means there will be no war.
In 2006 with 100% control of the sky they were unable to achieve any military victory, let alone if their control of the sky is really challenged and their airplanes are in real danger, this will make their operations harder and harder.
So causing wars like in 1996 when the criminal Perez wanted to make his election campaign on the blood of the lebanese or like in 2006 when they kept lebanese prisoners, have become unlikely.
 

JeanH

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
Hezbollah threatens to 'surprise Israel' in next war - Arab-Israeli Conflict - Jerusalem Post

Hezbollah vows to “surprise Israel” during any upcoming war, upping the war of words between the Lebanese Shi’ite terror group and Israel.
In an interview with Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV channel on the 11th anniversary of the Second Lebanon War, the head of the group’s Executive Council Sayyed Hashem Safieddine said that Hezbollah has been changing and developing new military capabilities.

According to Safieddine, who oversees Hezbollah’s social and economic activities and was added to the United States counterterrorism blacklist in March, Israeli reports on Hezbollah’s weaponry are “inaccurate as the enemy intelligence agencies can never reach veracious data in this context.”

Israel fought against Hezbollah in the 34-day Second Lebanon War in 2006. Since then hostilities between them have been limited to occasional firing across the border and reported air strikes by Israel against Hezbollah leaders and military equipment in Syria, where the group is fighting in support of President Bashar Assad.

Last week Chief of Staff Lt.- Gen. Gadi Eisenkot said that the IDF has used the time since the Second Lebanon War to dramatically improve its abilities and now has better intelligence and operational capabilities than ever before.

According to Eisenkot, Hezbollah’s rockets are not particularly accurate at the moment and Israelis “should put things in perspective and not panic” regarding reports that Iran has helped Hezbollah to operate and manage underground weapons factories.

Speaking to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Eisenkot said that “decreasing Iranian influence in the areas near Israel’s borders is no less important than defeating Islamic State, and for Israel perhaps even more.”


Last March, the Kuwaiti Al-Jarida newspaper cited an unnamed deputy head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as saying that Hezbollah has operated and managed underground weapons factories set up by the IRGC in response to alleged Israeli strikes against weapons convoys in Syria.

According to the report, the factories can produce missiles with a range of over 500 kilometers as well as surfaceto- air and antitank missiles as well as unmanned aerial vehicles able to carry explosives.

A recent report by the French web magazine Intelligence Online identified the locations of two of the factories as well as the type of munitions they produce.

According to the report, one underground facility located near Hermel in northeastern Lebanon produces the Fateh- 110 rocket which can carry half-ton warheads and is relatively accurate with a range of 300 kilometers, covering the majority of Israel.

The second facility, located near the Mediterranean coast between the cities of Tyre and Sidon in southern Lebanon manufactures smaller munitions.


At a briefing with journalists last week Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman warned that the smuggling of sophisticated weaponry to Hezbollah was a redline for Israel, which will continue to act to prevent the group from getting them.

“We take everything seriously. We are certainly aware of the reports and we will do what needs to be done. This is a significant phenomenon and we cannot ignore it. Precise weapons such as these missiles are a challenge. Compared to past wars they will hit deep inside Israeli territory,” Liberman said.

==================================================================================================

if it is true that HA is able to construct SAM missiles that are effective against israeli airplanes, this means there will be no war.
In 2006 with 100% control of the sky they were unable to achieve any military victory, let alone if their control of the sky is really challenged and their airplanes are in real danger, this will make their operations harder and harder.
So causing wars like in 1996 when the criminal Perez wanted to make his election campaign on the blood of the lebanese or like in 2006 when they kept lebanese prisoners, have become unlikely.
if they knew were the facilities were they would have bombed them already; hence either there are facilities and they dont were they are or there are no such facilities
 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
if they knew were the facilities were they would have bombed them already; hence either there are facilities and they dont were they are or there are no such facilities

right,
but there is also another interpretation: they know there are facilities, they know the region but they don't know the precise location in order to bomb them.
for example suppose there is facility in Hermel somewhere, this is not enough info to be able to bomb it. Hermel has an area of 136.4 km2 (cf wikipedia). How can you bomb such area?
 

JeanH

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
right,
but there is also another interpretation: they know there are facilities, they know the region but they don't know the precise location in order to bomb them.
for example suppose there is facility in Hermel somewhere, this is not enough info to be able to bomb it. Hermel has an area of 136.4 km2 (cf wikipedia). How can you bomb such area?
Maybe, but also why would they disclose such information and not keep it secret, do they want HA to know they know , and if so why ? so many things to think about.
 

gramsci

Legendary Member
if hizballa think that he can call his muslim ummah to come and fight israel from lebanon..
israel as well will not face alone the war .. NATO say hello...i am here and i dont think russia will side with hizbollah and their shia ummah
 
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