Parliamentary elections 2018 C&R bloc predictions for 2018 elections

Aoune32!

Aoune32!

Well-Known Member
I believe if Hariri is ok with Berri getting the finance ministry, PMA won't object.
However the days of super finance wazir are over; PMA will adopt voting in the gov. after the elections.........wait and see
No Finance ministry then no change and reform ensa which also means that Berri will always take the Finance ministry. What an achievement.
 
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  • oxygene

    oxygene

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    So based on predictions by many members , through reading analysis in all districts, and after all lists are made public, the elections outcome for C&R blocs & allies could be as follows indicating where a possible loss or win may occur :

    Akkar : 1 . ( loose 1)

    North III : 2 w Moawad

    Jbeil-Keser. : 4 ( win1 )

    Metn : 4 w tashnag . ( win 1)

    Baabda : 2 . ( loose 1 )

    Chouf-Aley : 3 w Erslen .
    ( win 1 )

    Beirut I : 3 w tashnag . ( win 1 )

    Jezzine : 2 (loose 1 )

    Zahle : 2 ( loose 1 )

    B. Gharbi Rashaya : 1 w ferzli


    24 seats : loose 4 win 4 , stays around that number in average .
     
    Placebo

    Placebo

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Placebo's latest estimates based on the list formations.

    FPM and Allies will most likely end up with 20 Seats. The other "Allies" will take 9 seats to be distributed in various other blocs (HA/ Arslan/ Mouawad/ Etc..)

    There's a slight chance of snatching another seat either in tripoli, beirut 2 or Baalback hermel if FPM is lucky.
    That would bring the total of FPM to 15 + 6 Allies = 21.

    That's the best possible with the current lists. I wouldn't be surprised if FPM underperforms though.
     

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    oxygene

    oxygene

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Placebo's latest estimates based on the list formations.

    FPM and Allies will most likely end up with 20 Seats. The other "Allies" will take 9 seats to be distributed in various other blocs (HA/ Arslan/ Mouawad/ Etc..)

    There's a slight chance of snatching another seat either in tripoli, beirut 2 or Baalback hermel if FPM is lucky.
    That would bring the total of FPM to 15 + 6 Allies = 21.

    That's the best possible with the current lists. I wouldn't be surprised if FPM underperforms though.
    Read your estimations and agree and mostly meet what I posted . But you have to add Mouawad , it has been decided . That makes it 22 . You wouldn't give any chance to increase 1 seat in Keserwen-Jbeil and/or in Metn ?
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Placebo's latest estimates based on the list formations.

    FPM and Allies will most likely end up with 20 Seats. The other "Allies" will take 9 seats to be distributed in various other blocs (HA/ Arslan/ Mouawad/ Etc..)

    There's a slight chance of snatching another seat either in tripoli, beirut 2 or Baalback hermel if FPM is lucky.
    That would bring the total of FPM to 15 + 6 Allies = 21.

    That's the best possible with the current lists. I wouldn't be surprised if FPM underperforms though.
    FPM 3andoun 29K voters in west Bekaa??
     
    SeaAb

    SeaAb

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    Placebo's latest estimates based on the list formations.

    FPM and Allies will most likely end up with 20 Seats. The other "Allies" will take 9 seats to be distributed in various other blocs (HA/ Arslan/ Mouawad/ Etc..)

    There's a slight chance of snatching another seat either in tripoli, beirut 2 or Baalback hermel if FPM is lucky.
    That would bring the total of FPM to 15 + 6 Allies = 21.

    That's the best possible with the current lists. I wouldn't be surprised if FPM underperforms though.
    FPM's candidate in Beirut2 has no chance?
     
    F

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    FPM will achieve positive results throughout the elections and in specific districts such as Metn, Ashrafieh and Kesrwan. FPM and allies will win at least 18 deputies, and Tashnag will get almost 4 seats. C&R will contain approxmately 24 deputies and may reach 26 with diversity (will considerd a huge victory).

    However, in the long term, we should think of the current law as an important first step to move to a higher stage in activating parties system and not resorting to difficult alliances. This will mainly happen through a proportional law based on Lebanon being one circle and also giving a great weight to expatriates.
    Best way is to let parties decide who is number 1 on the list and who is number 2 not by tafdili votes. That way people will be voting programs and not individuals and an alliance such as frangieh/harb/ssnp wont happen cause they wont be able to agree who should be number 1 and who should be number 2 etc so they will end up going each alone and harb wont be able to join a list easily.
     
    Placebo

    Placebo

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    FPM 3andoun 29K voters in west Bekaa??
    The entire list, including HA, has 29k. I have counted Ferzli as one of the potential allies.
    The list is clearly differentiating between FPM candidates, close allies. and "Allies".
     
    Placebo

    Placebo

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    FPM's candidate in Beirut2 has no chance?
    He has, if by some magical reason the HA/ fpm list get's an additional Hassel and then the Anglican seat is the next available one.
    I've added the possibility of 1 extra seat, either beirut 2, or Baalbak, or tripoli.
     
    Placebo

    Placebo

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Read your estimations and agree and mostly meet what I posted . But you have to add Mouawad , it has been decided . That makes it 22 . You wouldn't give any chance to increase 1 seat in Keserwen-Jbeil and/or in Metn ?
    Highly unlikely, a lot of things changed since 2009, FPM & Allies in Keserwan will get 4 in Keserwan, and 4 in Metn.

    The only possibility for both districts to rise to 5 is if some of the lists (Murr/LF in Metn, HA in Keserwan) fail ti reach they a threshold . But from the looks of it, they're getting it.
     
    oxygene

    oxygene

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Highly unlikely, a lot of things changed since 2009, FPM & Allies in Keserwan will get 4 in Keserwan, and 4 in Metn.

    The only possibility for both districts to rise to 5 is if some of the lists (Murr/LF in Metn, HA in Keserwan) fail ti reach they a threshold . But from the looks of it, they're getting it.
    In Keserwan-Jbeil , where I vote, the Shia votes are around 12k if 65% of the 18k there , while the threshold of the district
    Highly unlikely, a lot of things changed since 2009, FPM & Allies in Keserwan will get 4 in Keserwan, and 4 in Metn.

    The only possibility for both districts to rise to 5 is if some of the lists (Murr/LF in Metn, HA in Keserwan) fail ti reach they a threshold . But from the looks of it, they're getting it.
    Concerning Keserwan-Jbeil , the votes of all Shia is 12k at a 65% rate out of 18 k . With same rate you get a distric threshold of 14k at least .
    Now assuming that 10k vote for HA list a best case scenario , and only 2k go the three other candidtes , on one hand , and the very lightweight JL Corda7i & Cie manage to compensate and add 2k , the HA is in serious risk of falling short of the 14 k .
    Thus a real chance for grabbing the Shia seat there .
     
    L

    Lemon

    Well-Known Member
    Best way is to let parties decide who is number 1 on the list and who is number 2 not by tafdili votes. That way people will be voting programs and not individuals and an alliance such as frangieh/harb/ssnp wont happen cause they wont be able to agree who should be number 1 and who should be number 2 etc so they will end up going each alone and harb wont be able to join a list easily.
    How would you decide who gets the seat between the lists?
     
    AtheistForJesus

    AtheistForJesus

    Well-Known Member
    FPM's new C&R (whatever the new name is) bloc will be 21 or 22.
    The LF new Bloc (whatever they will name it) will be 16-17.

    #BassilNotQawi
    We have to give props to Tayyar for proposing an electoral system that's not necessarily in their favor.
     
    J

    joseph_lubnan

    Legendary Member
    We have to give props to Tayyar for proposing an electoral system that's not necessarily in their favor.
    Their priorities have always been neofeudal. They like this law because this is what they could pass that almost guaranteed Lord Bassil the son in law a seat after losing every single election he has ever entered. So no, not really.
     
    L

    Lemon

    Well-Known Member
    Same as in tafdili by sectarian quotas.
    Sorry, but I don't see how that would help. If you have say, one maronite seat, and two lists who both put their maronite as the first choice. Which one gets the seat? One with most total number of votes? One with most votes in the caza? Or something else?
     
    AtheistForJesus

    AtheistForJesus

    Well-Known Member
    Sorry, but I don't see how that would help. If you have say, one maronite seat, and two lists who both put their maronite as the first choice. Which one gets the seat? One with most total number of votes? One with most votes in the caza? Or something else?
    Also, how does FPM split its preferential votes among two candidates?
    Like how can they make sure half of FPMers are voting for Roukoz and the other half for Frem? Most voters are not necessarily members of the party, nor are they robots you can program.
     
    F

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    Sorry, but I don't see how that would help. If you have say, one maronite seat, and two lists who both put their maronite as the first choice. Which one gets the seat? One with most total number of votes? One with most votes in the caza? Or something else?
    The party with the most total of votes in the district gets to choose the 1st name.
     
    JB81

    JB81

    Legendary Member
    Their priorities have always been neofeudal. They like this law because this is what they could pass that almost guaranteed Lord Bassil the son in law a seat after losing every single election he has ever entered. So no, not really.
    LOL Charles Jabbour makes more sense than you
     
    JB81

    JB81

    Legendary Member
    Sorry, but I don't see how that would help. If you have say, one maronite seat, and two lists who both put their maronite as the first choice. Which one gets the seat? One with most total number of votes? One with most votes in the caza? Or something else?
    An example of how the new electoral system works. North 3:

     
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