FPM always underperforms in elections, and FPMers are always over excited and confident about the results before the polls open.
We've had exactly the same discussion on this forum in 2009, where FPMers were showing an astronomical confidence bubble which burst wide open at the end of the day. Same thing is happening today.
I will be very surprised if FPM (And close allies) will manage to get more than 20 seats. I wouldn't be surprised if they get less.
This is not negativity btw, this is simple realism.
I think FPM underperformed in 2009 for many reasons that are not true anymore:
- it was the first test after the alliance with HA, and FPM lost a lot because of that alliance, now it’s accepted and not even used as an attack angle against them by LF or others as they are all in the same government with HA
- some people couldn’t see anymore back then the utility of voting for FPM, most of us didn’t believe back then winning the presidency being a serious possibility, now there’s a clear objective : giving a push to the president
- the ajhize, the clergy, the presidency was working against FPM
- a lot of influence of money in the electoral process, not true anymore because of the nature of the new law
- the surprise of the expats being brought home to vote
- the surprise of the na2el nfous in Zahle, a district that should’ve been won in 2009
Today we have other weaknesses, but they are far less important than back in 09