Parliamentary elections 2018 C&R bloc predictions for 2018 elections

[Lemon]

The party with the most total of votes in the district gets to choose the 1st name.

And the second? And the third?

If there were no sectarian or caza quotas, having the party decide the order works because all seats are basically equal. But with the quotas, it becomes harder. There could be some sort of highest averages method but those have their problems as well and tend to favor larger parties. I think that the preferential votes are a fair way to gauge which candidates are most deserving of their seats, i.e. having the highest support from the local voters.

 

[Lemon]

Also, how does FPM split its preferential votes among two candidates?
Like how can they make sure half of FPMers are voting for Roukoz and the other half for Frem? Most voters are not necessarily members of the party, nor are they robots you can program.

That's by design. I for one don't trust political parties, and would be very skeptical of party bosses deciding who gets a seat and who doesn't. Let the voters decide for themselves.

 

[Lemon]

An example of how the new electoral system works. North 3:

Thanks, I know how the system works, but I was commenting on how a hypothetical system without preferential votes might work (or not).

 

[freelebanonn]

And the second? And the third?

If there were no sectarian or caza quotas, having the party decide the order works because all seats are basically equal. But with the quotas, it becomes harder. There could be some sort of highest averages method but those have their problems as well and tend to favor larger parties. I think that the preferential votes are a fair way to gauge which candidates are most deserving of their seats, i.e. having the highest support from the local voters.

If the party with the highest number of votes started 1st , the party with the 2nd highest number of votes get to choose next.

 

[Resistancefrom89]

Alert: High abstention rate tendency among Aounist sympathizers: reasons many and various. (A) Aoun made it to power, feeling of a job done and achievement of a journey B) Basill

High commitment to vote from LF sympathizer who sees their journey and struggle and goals not attained

Big surprises in size of FPM number of deputies to be elected

 

[freelebanonn]

Alert: High abstention rate tendency among Aounist sympathizers: reasons many and various. (A) Aoun made it to power, feeling of a job done and achievement of a journey B) Basill

High commitment to vote from LF sympathizer who sees their journey and struggle and goals not attained

Big surprises in size of FPM number of deputies to be elected

Stop this negativity and work on getting people to vote. The only threat now is civil movement not because they will do an impact but because they will weaken FPM in favour of other parties without reaching the hassel themselves. That is the real battle now.

 

[spacecreature]

Seems tayyar is doing ads on youtube now, just got this video suggested

 

[loubnaniTO]

Seems tayyar is doing ads on youtube now, just got this video suggested

nice.. but doesn't help much. If i am an undecided voter (whom the ads should target), it doesn't tell me anything. I want to see achievements from the past few years, i want to see plans for the next few years. I want to see how EXACTLY FPM will handle the economic crisis we are in, how EXACTLY they will fight corruption, etc... not just slogans, actual plans and how they will be implemented...

 

[Resistancefrom89]

nice.. but doesn't help much. If i am an undecided voter (whom the ads should target), it doesn't tell me anything. I want to see achievements from the past few years, i want to see plans for the next few years. I want to see how EXACTLY FPM will handle the economic crisis we are in, how EXACTLY they will fight corruption, etc... not just slogans, actual plans and how they will be implemented...

Well said!

 

[Placebo]

Alert: High abstention rate tendency among Aounist sympathizers: reasons many and various. (A) Aoun made it to power, feeling of a job done and achievement of a journey B) Basill

High commitment to vote from LF sympathizer who sees their journey and struggle and goals not attained

Big surprises in size of FPM number of deputies to be elected

FPM always underperforms in elections, and FPMers are always over excited and confident about the results before the polls open.

We've had exactly the same discussion on this forum in 2009, where FPMers were showing an astronomical confidence bubble which burst wide open at the end of the day. Same thing is happening today.

I will be very surprised if FPM (And close allies) will manage to get more than 20 seats. I wouldn't be surprised if they get less.

This is not negativity btw, this is simple realism.

 

[lebanese1]

FPM always underperforms in elections, and FPMers are always over excited and confident about the results before the polls open.

We've had exactly the same discussion on this forum in 2009, where FPMers were showing an astronomical confidence bubble which burst wide open at the end of the day. Same thing is happening today.

I will be very surprised if FPM (And close allies) will manage to get more than 20 seats. I wouldn't be surprised if they get less.

This is not negativity btw, this is simple realism.

it is true that some FPMers get overconfident but you are the extreme opposite of this and your prediction that FPM will be humiliated in Jounieh's municipal elections shows it.

 

[Placebo]

it is true that some FPMers get overconfident but you are the extreme opposite of this and your prediction that FPM will be humiliated in Jounieh's municipal elections shows it.

Better keep the expectation low and push people to work harder, rather than projecting an image of confidence and certainty, which always backfires.

Jounieh election is 1 example btw, there are other examples where FPM underperfromed in a district/University/Syndicate .

Just saying.

 

[lebanese1]

Better keep the expectation low and push people to work harder, rather than projecting an image of confidence and certainty, which always backfires.

Jounieh election is 1 example btw, there are other examples where FPM underperfromed in a district/University/Syndicate .

Just saying.

I agree with you on the 1st statement but we have to keep a balance between confidence and realism

 

[freelebanonn]

FPM always underperforms in elections, and FPMers are always over excited and confident about the results before the polls open.

We've had exactly the same discussion on this forum in 2009, where FPMers were showing an astronomical confidence bubble which burst wide open at the end of the day. Same thing is happening today.

I will be very surprised if FPM (And close allies) will manage to get more than 20 seats. I wouldn't be surprised if they get less.

This is not negativity btw, this is simple realism.

The over confidence of FPMers exists from the idea they believe in eno by logic people should still follow them because whatever happened they are still better than the rest ( true in many ways) and they cant grasp the idea that things might have slightly changed. 2009 was a huge lesson to me. This time i am keeping my expectations low.

 

[La Blague]

FPM always underperforms in elections, and FPMers are always over excited and confident about the results before the polls open.

We've had exactly the same discussion on this forum in 2009, where FPMers were showing an astronomical confidence bubble which burst wide open at the end of the day. Same thing is happening today.

I will be very surprised if FPM (And close allies) will manage to get more than 20 seats. I wouldn't be surprised if they get less.

This is not negativity btw, this is simple realism.

I think FPM underperformed in 2009 for many reasons that are not true anymore:
- it was the first test after the alliance with HA, and FPM lost a lot because of that alliance, now it’s accepted and not even used as an attack angle against them by LF or others as they are all in the same government with HA
- some people couldn’t see anymore back then the utility of voting for FPM, most of us didn’t believe back then winning the presidency being a serious possibility, now there’s a clear objective : giving a push to the president
- the ajhize, the clergy, the presidency was working against FPM
- a lot of influence of money in the electoral process, not true anymore because of the nature of the new law
- the surprise of the expats being brought home to vote
- the surprise of the na2el nfous in Zahle, a district that should’ve been won in 2009

Today we have other weaknesses, but they are far less important than back in 09

 

[Lebnaouneh]

The over confidence of FPMers exists from the idea they believe in eno by logic people should still follow them because whatever happened they are still better than the rest ( true in many ways) and they cant grasp the idea that things might have slightly changed. 2009 was a huge lesson to me. This time i am keeping my expectations low.

What an 2ahra 2009...a memory I will never forget

 

[JB81]

What an 2ahra 2009...a memory I will never forget

Should learn to work hard and won't rest till every vote is casted.

Wouldn't be rewarding for campaign activists to surprise the polls with better performance, with an extra unexpected mp in Keserwen for example?

 

[!Aoune32]

I suggest once these elections are over we actually fix the law. The 15 districts can stay as is but we need to move the maronite seat from Tripoli and one christian seat from West Bekaa and Akkar to some other area.

 

[Tsunami27]

I suggest once these elections are over we actually fix the law. The 15 districts can stay as is but we need to move the maronite seat from Tripoli and one christian seat from West Bekaa and Akkar to some other area.

Doesnt fix shit. Lets have Lebanon as 1 big district with preferential vote and lets embrace diversity in the sunni and shia streets

 

[!Aoune32]

Doesnt fix shit. Lets have Lebanon as 1 big district with preferential vote and lets embrace diversity in the sunni and shia streets

badak yehon to choose our MPs 7abboub???