Parliamentary elections 2018 C&R bloc predictions for 2018 elections

S

Sherlock

New Member
There are many strengths and positive points of this law. Most notably the decline of the influence of individuals in specific areas districts as leaders and therefore the voters will become more orientated towards the parties and this is a political equation healthy. It is a first step towards better legal adjustments in the electoral law in the future.

Away from the details of the figures, but confident that C&R bloc will not be less than 22 deputies (containing 4 seats for the Tashnag) and I think the 24 deputies will be achieved (often the largest bloc in parliament).

FPM after the elections will launched with a parliamentary and ministerial share that will enable it to complete national achievements.
 
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  • Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    There are many strengths and positive points of this law. Most notably the decline of the influence of individuals in specific areas districts as leaders and therefore the voters will become more orientated towards the parties and this is a political equation healthy. It is a first step towards better legal adjustments in the electoral law in the future.

    Away from the details of the figures, but confident that C&R bloc will not be less than 22 deputies (containing 4 seats for the Tashnag) and I think the 24 deputies will be achieved (often the largest bloc in parliament).

    FPM after the elections will launched with a parliamentary and ministerial share that will enable it to complete national achievements.
    badak national achievement? take the MOF.
     
    Imadestein

    Imadestein

    New Member
    My recent predictions after consulting some of my friends in the other districts( list includes mouawad ferizli erslan and tachnaq ). And i used a list used earlier in this same forum.
    sure wins:
    beirut 1 (ashrfiyeh): 3
    beirut 2 (...): 0

    north 1 (akkar): 0
    north 2 (tripoli): 0
    north 3 (batroun-zgharta): 2

    bikaa 1 (zahle): 1
    bikaa 2 (rachia): 1
    bikaa 3 (hermel): 0

    south 1 (jezzine): 1
    south 2 (zahrani): 0
    south 3 (nabatiye):0

    mount Leb 1 (jbeil-keserwan): 4
    mount Leb 2 (metn): 4
    mount Leb 3 (baabda): 1
    mount Leb 4 (chouf-Aley): 3

    Total sure seats: 20

    seats that will be fought over:
    beirut 1 (ashrfiyeh): 1
    beirut 2 (...): 1

    north 1 (akkar): 1
    north 2 (tripoli): 0
    north 3 (batroun-zgharta): 0

    bikaa 1 (zahle): 0
    bikaa 2 (rachia): 0
    bikaa 3 (hermel): 0

    south 1 (jezzine): 0
    south 2 (zahrani): 0
    south 3 (nabatiye):0

    mount Leb 1 (jbeil-keserwan): 1
    mount Leb 2 (metn): 1
    mount Leb 3 (baabda): 1
    mount Leb 4 (chouf-aley): 1

    Total disputed seats: 7

    the block size will be between 20 and 27
    4 of the disputed seats are very much in reach and thats the beirut 2 seat the akkar seat baabda seat and the keserwan seat
     
    oxygene

    oxygene

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    My recent predictions after consulting some of my friends in the other districts( list includes mouawad ferizli erslan and tachnaq ). And i used a list used earlier in this same forum.
    sure wins:
    beirut 1 (ashrfiyeh): 3
    beirut 2 (...): 0

    north 1 (akkar): 0
    north 2 (tripoli): 0
    north 3 (batroun-zgharta): 2

    bikaa 1 (zahle): 1
    bikaa 2 (rachia): 1
    bikaa 3 (hermel): 0

    south 1 (jezzine): 1
    south 2 (zahrani): 0
    south 3 (nabatiye):0

    mount Leb 1 (jbeil-keserwan): 4
    mount Leb 2 (metn): 4
    mount Leb 3 (baabda): 1
    mount Leb 4 (chouf-Aley): 3

    Total sure seats: 20

    seats that will be fought over:
    beirut 1 (ashrfiyeh): 1
    beirut 2 (...): 1

    north 1 (akkar): 1
    north 2 (tripoli): 0
    north 3 (batroun-zgharta): 0

    bikaa 1 (zahle): 0
    bikaa 2 (rachia): 0
    bikaa 3 (hermel): 0

    south 1 (jezzine): 0
    south 2 (zahrani): 0
    south 3 (nabatiye):0

    mount Leb 1 (jbeil-keserwan): 1
    mount Leb 2 (metn): 1
    mount Leb 3 (baabda): 1
    mount Leb 4 (chouf-aley): 1

    Total disputed seats: 7

    the block size will be between 20 and 27
    4 of the disputed seats are very much in reach and thats the beirut 2 seat the akkar seat baabda seat and the keserwan seat

    I wonder if In Jezzine and Zahle there is any chance for a second win
     
    Imadestein

    Imadestein

    New Member
    I wonder if In Jezzine and Zahle there is any chance for a second win
    It actually depends on the LF and HA lists my personal opinion is
    We know that LF have 1 hasel and good ksour
    HA the same
    FPM and FM has 3.3 hasel i think
    And skaff is a bit below a hasel
    If skaff gets a hasel the main battle will be between HA and LF for the last seat. If skaff doesnt get a hasel the battle will be a threeway battle for 2 seats and tayyar can snatch one because the list already had the highest number of hawasels so the highest number of votes that will make us the winners drom skaff not getting the hasel.these are personal opinions
     
    oxygene

    oxygene

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    It actually depends on the LF and HA lists my personal opinion is
    We know that LF have 1 hasel and good ksour
    HA the same
    FPM and FM has 3.3 hasel i think
    And skaff is a bit below a hasel
    If skaff gets a hasel the main battle will be between HA and LF for the last seat. If skaff doesnt get a hasel the battle will be a threeway battle for 2 seats and tayyar can snatch one because the list already had the highest number of hawasels so the highest number of votes that will make us the winners drom skaff not getting the hasel.these are personal opinions
    It's true . And almost all estimations are not in favour of Skaff to reach a 7assel .
     
    Imadestein

    Imadestein

    New Member
    It's true . And almost all estimations are not in favour of Skaff to reach a 7assel .
    In any case even if she doesnt reach a hasel it is not a guaranteed seat it might be 2 HA 2 LF 3 FM-FPM
     
    oxygene

    oxygene

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    In any case even if she doesnt reach a hasel it is not a guaranteed seat it might be 2 HA 2 LF 3 FM-FPM
    Shia represent only 16% of voters . If 12-14 % vote for HA-Fattoush ( one 7assel ) , you still need same to reach another 7assel . Can Fattoush get another 12-14 % out of 17% Greek catholics that are voters in Zahle district ? Impossible . Fattoush and HA much less popular among other sects ( Sunni, Maronites, Orthodox & Armenians ) . Their Second 7assel is very hard to get .
     
    Abotareq93

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    يقيم التيار الوطني الحر 17 مهرجان إنتخابي في مختلف المناطق اللبنانية ويتوزع البرنامج على الشكل التالي:

    -بيروت الثانية الخميس 10 نيسان الساعة السابعة والنصف مساءً.

    -عكار السبت 21 نيسان الساعة الرابعة بعد الظهر.

    -عاليه الجمعة 27 نيسان الساعة السادسة والنصف مساءً.

    -الزهراني السبت 28 نيسان الساعة الرابعة بعد الظهر.

    -جزين السبت 28 نيسان الساعة الخامسة والنصف بعد الظهر.

    -الشوف السبت 28 نيسان الساعة التاسعة مساءً.

    -زغرتا الأحد 29 نيسان الساعة الحادية عشر قبل الظهر.

    -بعبدا الأحد 29 نيسان الساعة الرابعة بعد الظهر.

    -بيروت الأولى الأحد 29 نيسان الساعة التاسعة مساءً.

    -بعلبك الثلاثاء واحد أيار الساعة الحادية عشر قبل الظهر .

    -البقاع الغربي الثلاثاء واحد أيار الساعة الرابعة بعد الظهر .

    -زحلة الثلاثاء واحد أيار الساعة السادسة مساءً.

    -جبيل الإربعاء 2 أيار الساعة السادسة مساءً.

    -المتن الإربعاء 2 أيار الساعة الثامنة والنصف مساءً.

    -كسروان الخميس 3 أيار الساعة السادسة مساءً .

    -البترون الخميس 3 أيار الساعة الثامنة والنصف مساءً.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    The winners in Zahle will be
    FM 2
    FPM 1
    HA 2 as said above ( 1 shia and 1 fattouche)
    LF 2
    This is if Skaff doesn't win her seat. If she does then it will be a war with HA and LF and I think due to also the Kataeb being allied with LF they will get the 2 seats.
     
    Imadestein

    Imadestein

    New Member
    The winners in Zahle will be
    FM 2
    FPM 1
    HA 2 as said above ( 1 shia and 1 fattouche)
    LF 2
    This is if Skaff doesn't win her seat. If she does then it will be a war with HA and LF and I think due to also the Kataeb being allied with LF they will get the 2 seats.
    No i find it will be most probably a 2 HA 1 LF because even if kateab are allied with the LF HA-fattouche alliance has a higher ksour and if she doesnt reach the hasel it will most likely be a battle between FPM LF and HA over 2 seats because once the hasel is lowered the FPM-FM list's ksour gained will be 3 times that of LF and hezeb because they already had 3 hasels on the first calculation. I can do a mathematical example if u like
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    No i find it will be most probably a 2 HA 1 LF because even if kateab are allied with the LF HA-fattouche alliance has a higher ksour and if she doesnt reach the hasel it will most likely be a battle between FPM LF and HA over 2 seats because once the hasel is lowered the FPM-FM list's ksour gained will be 3 times that of LF and hezeb because they already had 3 hasels on the first calculation. I can do a mathematical example if u like
    Could be :)
    What I know is one LF akide and the second will be gained.
    FPM will take 1 and FM 2
    HA 1
    There is still one MP. It could go to HA so it means HA and LF are 2 each.
     
    Resistancefrom89

    Resistancefrom89

    Well-Known Member
    Alert: High abstention rate tendency among Aounist sympathizers: reasons many and various. (A) Aoun made it to power, feeling of a job done and achievement of a journey B) Basill

    High commitment to vote from LF sympathizer who sees their journey and struggle and goals not attained
    Remember this High abstention alert among Aounist sympathizers and the Alert of High Commitment from LF sympathisers? this was on April 9th
     
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