Parliamentary elections 2018 C&R bloc predictions for 2018 elections

LVV

LVV

Well-Known Member
This way of thinking will make FPM supporters put idayon w ejrayon bimay berdeh and refrain from moving their asses on the election day to go and vote since the results are guaranteed.
My projections are based on facts which I mentioned
The guy that you like his criticism of me missed the whole Bekaa so I have to put things straight
 
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  • LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    Akkar 2
    North christian 1
    Keserwen-Jbeil 4 max
    Metn 4
    Baabda 2
    Chouf-Aley 3
    Jezzine 2
    Zahle 1
    West Bekaa 1
    Beirut I 2 seats

    22 MPs. What ever happens I believe that FPM will be the biggest block in Parliament. FM will be the second largest.
    That is logic to a large degree also I m a little more optimistic than you
    But I agree mainly with you
     
    Abotareq93

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    My projections are based on facts which I mentioned
    The guy that you like his criticism of me missed the whole Bekaa so I have to put things straight
    My friend, I was talking about a state of mind that we should avoid. Do you remember the period that preceded the 2009 elections? We all thought that we were going to have at least 35 MPs and that our lists in Zahleh, Beirut 1 and Koura will win completely without any breach but we ended up losing these 3 districts; one of the reasons was that our people were overconfident and so many people preferred to spend that Sunday on the beach instead of voting because they thought that the results are in the small pocket.
     
    LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    My friend, I was talking about a state of mind that we should avoid. Do you remember the period that preceded the 2009 elections? We all thought that we were going to have at least 35 MPs and that our lists in Zahleh, Beirut 1 and Koura will win completely without any breach but we ended up losing these 3 districts; one of the reasons was that our people were overconfident and so many people preferred to spend that Sunday on the beach instead of voting because they thought that the results are in the small pocket.
    تجوال مع القوات اللبنانية في الدوائر الانتخابية: هنا تربح وهنا ستخسر
    Not very optimistic projections for LF
     
    Abotareq93

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    So you think it is misleading
    I will tell LF might go to 10/12 max
    FPM is going to more than 22 at least
    Of course, it's misleading because according to the article, LF will get 3 MPs only while in fact, they will get at least a block equivalent to their current one.
     
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    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    So you think it is misleading
    I will tell LF might go to 10/12 max
    FPM is going to more than 22 at least
    LF will be 10 minimum 14 max
    FPM will be 20 minimum 27 max
    HA will lose 1 or 2 seats. Same for Amal.
    WJ should have no more than 7-8.
    FM about 20 but he will push to have more.

    Tripoli Hariri will get hammered.
    Akkar there will be a battle.
    Minieh/dinieh also a battle. I dont think its that easy.
     
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    Placebo

    Placebo

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    My conservative predictions:

    - Akkar: 1
    - Batoun: 1
    - Keserwan / Jbeil; 4
    - Metn: 3 (2 Tayyar, 1 Tashnag)
    - Baabda: 2
    - Beirut I: 3 (1 Tayyar, 2 Tashnag)
    - Jezzine: 2
    - Aley / Chouf: 2
    - Zahleh: 1

    Total: 19

    FPM should start with such conservative expectations and work hard to grab up to 10 additional seats.
    This is very realistic, but if C&R cannot get even those then it means that the situation is dire.

    I believe there might be potential for 1 more in Keserwan/jbeil (but not certain, 4 is a very good prediction) and maybe 1 more in West Bekaa?
    I'm not sure about the 3 figure in Beirut 1, but it all depends on the remaining armernian parties there (which have more leverage than in the other districts)

    My take is as follows (Blue should be a certainty, Green is possible, Orange achievable depending on alliances)

    - Akkar: 1 / 1
    - Batroun-koura-bechare-zgharta: 1 / 1
    - Keserwan / Jbeil; 4 / 1
    - Metn: 3 (2 Tayyar, 1 Tashnag)
    - Baabda: 2
    - Beirut I: 2 (1 tayyar 1 Tashnag) / 1 (depends on FM & their armenian allies)
    - Jezzine: 2
    - Aley / Chouf: 2 / 1
    - Zahleh: 1
    - West Bekaa: 1
    - Baalbeck : 1 (Depends on alliance with HA)
    - Tripoli/Menieh : 1 (depends on alliance with FM, harriri might need some additional FPM help there)

    Worst acceptable result : 18
    Realistically achievable result : 21
    Miracle : 26
     
    F

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    This is very realistic, but if C&R cannot get even those then it means that the situation is dire.

    I believe there might be potential for 1 more in Keserwan/jbeil (but not certain, 4 is a very good prediction) and maybe 1 more in West Bekaa?
    I'm not sure about the 3 figure in Beirut 1, but it all depends on the remaining armernian parties there (which have more leverage than in the other districts)

    My take is as follows (Blue should be a certainty, Green is possible, Orange achievable depending on alliances)

    - Akkar: 1 / 1
    - Batroun-koura-bechare-zgharta: 1 / 1
    - Keserwan / Jbeil; 4 / 1
    - Metn: 3 (2 Tayyar, 1 Tashnag)
    - Baabda: 2
    - Beirut I: 2 (1 tayyar 1 Tashnag) / 1 (depends on FM & their armenian allies)
    - Jezzine: 2
    - Aley / Chouf: 2 / 1
    - Zahleh: 1
    - West Bekaa: 1
    - Baalbeck : 1 (Depends on alliance with HA)
    - Tripoli/Menieh : 1 (depends on alliance with FM, harriri might need some additional FPM help there)

    Worst acceptable result : 18
    Realistically achievable result : 21
    Miracle : 26
    Metn we will get 4/8 not 3 we are majority in metn. In kesserwen jbeil 4/8 not 5. 2 in jbeil and 2 in kesserwen. The 5th will be considered a miracle.
     
    LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    This is very realistic, but if C&R cannot get even those then it means that the situation is dire.

    I believe there might be potential for 1 more in Keserwan/jbeil (but not certain, 4 is a very good prediction) and maybe 1 more in West Bekaa?
    I'm not sure about the 3 figure in Beirut 1, but it all depends on the remaining armernian parties there (which have more leverage than in the other districts)

    My take is as follows (Blue should be a certainty, Green is possible, Orange achievable depending on alliances)

    - Akkar: 1 / 1
    - Batroun-koura-bechare-zgharta: 1 / 1
    - Keserwan / Jbeil; 4 / 1
    - Metn: 3 (2 Tayyar, 1 Tashnag)
    - Baabda: 2
    - Beirut I: 2 (1 tayyar 1 Tashnag) / 1 (depends on FM & their armenian allies)
    - Jezzine: 2
    - Aley / Chouf: 2 / 1
    - Zahleh: 1
    - West Bekaa: 1
    - Baalbeck : 1 (Depends on alliance with HA)
    - Tripoli/Menieh : 1 (depends on alliance with FM, harriri might need some additional FPM help there)

    Worst acceptable result : 18
    Realistically achievable result : 21
    Miracle : 26
    I have 2 questions for you
    Metn: How do you give 2 to FPM plus 1 Tachnac after they have more than 50 percent of the vote in 2009 meaning 4 at least
    Beirut 1 : they got only in Ashrafieh 47 percent of the vote in 2009 without today many more Armenians voices from Rmeil; how do you give them 1 FPM plus 1 Tachnac
     
    LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    Metn we will get 4/8 not 3 we are majority in metn. In kesserwen jbeil 4/8 not 5. 2 in jbeil and 2 in kesserwen. The 5th will be considered a miracle.
    In 2009 we got 52 percent of vote in Kisirwan so we get two and the 48 percent divided on many list 3
    Yeah very logic
     
    Placebo

    Placebo

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I have 2 questions for you
    Metn: How do you give 2 to FPM plus 1 Tachnac after they have more than 50 percent of the vote in 2009 meaning 4 at least - an additional one in Metn could be possible, true. But a lot of things changed since 2009, I doubt that FPM is what it was back then. But i'm not ruling the possibility out. It also depends on tashnag. Are they clear in their position so far? We have to see what the other lists would be.
    Beirut 1 : they got only in Ashrafieh 47 percent of the vote in 2009 without today many more Armenians voices from Rmeil; how do you give them 1 FPM plus 1 Tachnac
    The armenians in Beirut 1 do not vote massively for tashnag as in the rest of the country. The other smaller parties are actually very present and could affect. again, i am not ruling the 3rd out, it could be possible.
     
    Tsunami27

    Tsunami27

    Well-Known Member
    Elie Ferzli will win in West Bekaa regardless of the alliances. I think he would join the C&R bloc after that (Unless Joujou goes insane and fields a FPM candidate there)
     
    JB81

    JB81

    Legendary Member
    This is very realistic, but if C&R cannot get even those then it means that the situation is dire.

    I believe there might be potential for 1 more in Keserwan/jbeil (but not certain, 4 is a very good prediction) and maybe 1 more in West Bekaa?
    I'm not sure about the 3 figure in Beirut 1, but it all depends on the remaining armernian parties there (which have more leverage than in the other districts)

    My take is as follows (Blue should be a certainty, Green is possible, Orange achievable depending on alliances)

    - Akkar: 1 / 1
    - Batroun-koura-bechare-zgharta: 1 / 1
    - Keserwan / Jbeil; 4 / 1
    - Metn: 3 (2 Tayyar, 1 Tashnag)
    - Baabda: 2
    - Beirut I: 2 (1 tayyar 1 Tashnag) / 1 (depends on FM & their armenian allies)
    - Jezzine: 2
    - Aley / Chouf: 2 / 1
    - Zahleh: 1
    - West Bekaa: 1
    - Baalbeck : 1 (Depends on alliance with HA)
    - Tripoli/Menieh : 1 (depends on alliance with FM, harriri might need some additional FPM help there)

    Worst acceptable result : 18
    Realistically achievable result : 21
    Miracle : 26
    Beirut 1: I think FPM/Tashnag/FM can get minimum of 4 out of 8. 1/4 th of the voters in this district are Arminians. So it can be safely be FPM 1; Tashnag 2; Arminian FM 1.
    Tashnag mps are safe part of C&R block... thus, FPM can count of them in the Parliament.
     
    L

    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    I have 2 questions for you
    Metn: How do you give 2 to FPM plus 1 Tachnac after they have more than 50 percent of the vote in 2009 meaning 4 at least
    Beirut 1 : they got only in Ashrafieh 47 percent of the vote in 2009 without today many more Armenians voices from Rmeil; how do you give them 1 FPM plus 1 Tachnac
    IN metn, FPM's list got 47 000 votes in 2009 inclluding 12 000 for tashnag and 5 000 for SSNP. So fpm had 30 000. Electoral quotient was 11 500 back then. Therefore, 30 000 / 11 500 = 2.6. So the 3rd seat is not totally guaranteed but we have high chances to grab it.
     
    LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    IN metn, FPM's list got 47 000 votes in 2009 inclluding 12 000 for tashnag and 5 000 for SSNP. So fpm had 30 000. Electoral quotient was 11 500 back then. Therefore, 30 000 / 11 500 = 2.6. So the 3rd seat is not totally guaranteed but we have high chances to grab it.
    Plus one for Tachnac
    Plus a possible 5 with SSNP backing if LF has a third list
     
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