Parliamentary elections 2018 C&R bloc predictions for 2018 elections

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lebanese1

Legendary Member
Plus one for Tachnac
Plus a possible 5 with SSNP backing if LF has a third list
Stop saying If and If. I am talking about what FPM can guarantee on its own regardless of what other lists or parties do.
 
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  • LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    Stop saying If and If. I am talking about what FPM can guarantee on its own regardless of what other lists or parties do.
    But the alliance and if part of battles
    See the big picture and stop thinking in a limited way
     
    L

    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    But the alliance and if part of battles
    See the big picture and stop thinking in a limited way
    why are you not understanding that I am talking about GUARANTEED seats? Why are you as stupid as Tramb?
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    But the alliance and if part of battles
    See the big picture and stop thinking in a limited way
    FPM will get approx 21-22 MPs which I am certain are guaranteed. Other seats will be available if FPM decides to battle with Amal and or other parties.
     
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    Reactions: LVV
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Plus one for Tachnac
    Plus a possible 5 with SSNP backing if LF has a third list
    In Metn FPM will not get more than 4.
    The other 4 I will assume to be Murr, 2 Kataeb and 1 LF.
     
    Abotareq93

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    Because there is no election you guys are doing a math that is already done and all the MP got already elected....
    You think we are voting ?!!! its just a stage.
    OK, but how can FPM or C&R block get 30+ MPs? I would appreciate some details about the districts and the number of FPM MPs in each one.
     
    R

    Ralph N

    Active Member
    OK, but how can FPM or C&R block get 30+ MPs? I would appreciate some details about the districts and the number of FPM MPs in each one.
    It doesnt matter, what matters is that GMA-PMA is a powerful man internationally and this time he is getting all the support... He got promoted thats why he became President... now there is huge respect to him specially from Europe...

    The Block GMA will have will be more than he had last time.. Thats all I know...but if you want me to make a possible attempt on where he may win I will but its an opinion not information.
     
    F

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    Plus one for Tachnac
    Plus a possible 5 with SSNP backing if LF has a third list
    fpm + tachnag will get 4 seats in maten. 2 maronites , 1 orthodox and 1 armenian . The other list will take 2 maronites , 1 orthodox and 1 catholic. Unless a competitive 3rd list emerged and took lots of votes from kataeb without being able to reach the hasil , the catholic seat will go to FPM in this case and we will go from 4/4 to 5/3.
     
    LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    fpm + tachnag will get 4 seats in maten. 2 maronites , 1 orthodox and 1 armenian . The other list will take 2 maronites , 1 orthodox and 1 catholic. Unless a competitive 3rd list emerged and took lots of votes from kataeb without being able to reach the hasil , the catholic seat will go to FPM in this case and we will go from 4/4 to 5/3.
    thats what I m saying but it seems 4 ; I bet LF will ally with Kataeb plus Murr
     
    Mistletos

    Mistletos

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    thats what I m saying but it seems 4 ; I bet LF will ally with Kataeb plus Murr
    Oh the irony... after decades of LFers busting FPMers balls about allying with Murr lol let’s see what happens!
     
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    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    Oh the irony... after decades of LFers busting FPMers balls about allying with Murr lol let’s see what happens!
    It seems you forgot that they were allies in 2009 murr and abillamah were on the same list. The same murr who survived an assassination attempt by LF in esrly 90ies
     
    Mistletos

    Mistletos

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    It seems you forgot that they were allies in 2009 murr and abillamah were on the same list. The same murr who survived an assassination attempt by LF in esrly 90ies
    I missed that :) lol thanks for reminding me
     
    L

    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    fpm + tachnag will get 4 seats in maten. 2 maronites , 1 orthodox and 1 armenian . The other list will take 2 maronites , 1 orthodox and 1 catholic. Unless a competitive 3rd list emerged and took lots of votes from kataeb without being able to reach the hasil , the catholic seat will go to FPM in this case and we will go from 4/4 to 5/3.
    who will win the catholic seat?
     
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    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    who will win the catholic seat?
    The candidate on the opposing list whomever he is . Unless a somehow serious 3rd list emerges and takes lots of votes from kataeb list . This way the catholic seat will go to FPM as an additional seat in maten.
     
    L

    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    The candidate on the opposing list whomever he is . Unless a somehow serious 3rd list emerges and takes lots of votes from kataeb list . This way the catholic seat will go to FPM as an additional seat in maten.
    why are you saying that fpm will take a 2nd maronite instead of a catholic?
     
    F

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    why are you saying that fpm will take a 2nd maronite instead of a catholic?
    Because kanaan win is guaranteed. if nkoula runs he has better chances to win than any maronite candidate on the opposing list not named samy ( seat guaranteed also) while edgard maalouf will be leaving his seat to his nephew this time . Nabil nkoula is more established on the ground due to the fact that he is an mp since 2005. So he probably will get more preferential votes than eddy junior. Thus 2 maronites candiates will win from the FPM list and due to hasil , kataeb list will be guaranteed 4 seats which means the catholic seat will got to them whatever the number of preferential votes their candidate got ( even if it is less than the FPM catholic candidate number)
    So only way FPM wins the catholic seat ( if the results ended up being close like 2009) is that eddy junior gets more preferential votes than the 2nd Maronite candidate on FPM list. This means that kataeb list will be winning 3 maronite seats out of 4. I dont think it will happen.
     
    L

    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    التيار الوطني الحر: مجموعة التسعة

    علم موقع www.elections18.com أن رئيس حزب التيار الوطني الحر الوزير جبران باسيل ابتدأ تنظيم اجتماع دوري للمرشحين العونيين التسعة الذين حسم 1000 بالمئة ترشيحهم من قبل التيار الوطني الحر، وهؤلاء التسعة هم:
    الوزير جبران باسيل في البترون
    النائب سيمون أبي رميا في جبيل
    النائب ابراهيم كنعان في المتن
    الوزير السابق الياس أبو صعب في المتن
    النائب آلان عون في بعبدا
    الوزير سيزار أبو خليل في عاليه
    النائب السابق سليم عون في زحلة
    الوزير السابق نقولا الصحناوي في الأشرفية
    الوزير السابق ماريو عون في الشوف

    وبعد الاجتماع الأول نظم اجتماع مركزي لجمبع المرشحين العونيين مع مسؤول الماكينة الانتخابية في التيار الأستاذ نسيب حاتم لعرض كل ما لديه من أرقام في كل دائرة واستعراض جميع السيناريوهات المطروحة. علماً أن المرشحين العونيين الحزبيين هم أكثر من تسعة بكثير لكن هذا الاجتماع مخصص لمن يستحيل التراجع عن ترشيحهم فيما جميع الاحتمالات ما تزال واردة في ما يخص المرشحين الآخرين.
     
    C

    California Republic

    New Member
    The concept of the الحالة العونية in Jezzine can not be separated from Ziad Aswad

    As for the total number of seats, I think the limits of 19-22

    Not counting Tashnaq
     
    U

    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    My prediction for the entire C&R block is as follows:

    - Akkar = 1 (possibly 2, but 1 is more likely)
    - Northern Christian District = 2 --> 1 in Batroun and 1 more in either Koura or Zgharta (if Franjiyye sits on a much higher number than the second Marada candidate)
    - Jbeil = 1 (1 to Hawat and 1 to HA)
    - Keserwen = 3
    - Maten = 3 for FPM + 1 for Tashnak (I predict 1 to Murr, 1 to Kataeb, and the remaining 2 could end be 1 Kataeb and the 2nd to either LF, FPM or SSNP, or 1 LF and the second to either Kataeb, FPM or SSNP). I give us a 33% chance for 4 FPM here, but 3 most likely.
    - Baabda = 2
    - Aley = 1
    - Chouf = 1 guaranteed and a real chance for 2
    - Zahle = 1
    - Jezzine = 2 (3 not impossible but unlikely)
    - Beirut 1 = 2 for FPM and 2 for Tashnak
    - Western Bekaa = 1 to Elie Ferzli --> to join C&R block

    This is a total of 23 seats for the C&R block and I think we will win one more in either Chouf, Akkar, Jezzine or Maten for a total of 24. This is two more than the number we won in 2009 (22) when excluding Arslan (2) and Marada (3). 22 or more is a good result as we wouldn't have gone backwards. My guess is that C&R seats will be distributed as follows:

    - FPM = 17 (2 less than what we have now, but not bad given the new PR law)
    - Tachnak = 3
    - Other allies = 4 (i.e. Chamel Roukoz, Elie Ferzli, Ziad Baroud, Massoud Ashkar)
     
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