My prediction for the entire C&R block is as follows:
- Akkar = 1 (possibly 2, but 1 is more likely)
- Northern Christian District = 2 --> 1 in Batroun and 1 more in either Koura or Zgharta (if Franjiyye sits on a much higher number than the second Marada candidate)
- Jbeil = 1 (1 to Hawat and 1 to HA)
- Keserwen = 3
- Maten = 3 for FPM + 1 for Tashnak (I predict 1 to Murr, 1 to Kataeb, and the remaining 2 could end be 1 Kataeb and the 2nd to either LF, FPM or SSNP, or 1 LF and the second to either Kataeb, FPM or SSNP). I give us a 33% chance for 4 FPM here, but 3 most likely.
- Baabda = 2
- Aley = 1
- Chouf = 1 guaranteed and a real chance for 2
- Zahle = 1
- Jezzine = 2 (3 not impossible but unlikely)
- Beirut 1 = 2 for FPM and 2 for Tashnak
- Western Bekaa = 1 to Elie Ferzli --> to join C&R block
This is a total of 23 seats for the C&R block and I think we will win one more in either Chouf, Akkar, Jezzine or Maten for a total of 24. This is two more than the number we won in 2009 (22) when excluding Arslan (2) and Marada (3). 22 or more is a good result as we wouldn't have gone backwards. My guess is that C&R seats will be distributed as follows:
- FPM = 17 (2 less than what we have now, but not bad given the new PR law)
- Tachnak = 3
- Other allies = 4 (i.e. Chamel Roukoz, Elie Ferzli, Ziad Baroud, Massoud Ashkar)
This would be equal to HA/AMAL. Not a bad result if true eventhough I think FPM can add 1 or 2 more in some district. 26/128 is about 20.3% of the Parliament. My hope is that LF get at least 12-15 seats and we as christians 1/3+1 the Parliament also eventhough I know its hard to do.
What are the chances that FPM take either the christian seat in Tripoli or the christian seat in Baalbeck? There are 4 seats in these two districts. I think one in Tripoli will be for FPM.
I really want to hit Berri hard in his district Zahrani. Is there no chance for a FPM person in Zahrani???