Parliamentary elections 2018 C&R bloc predictions for 2018 elections

!Aoune32

!Aoune32

Well-Known Member
My prediction for the entire C&R block is as follows:

- Akkar = 1 (possibly 2, but 1 is more likely)
- Northern Christian District = 2 --> 1 in Batroun and 1 more in either Koura or Zgharta (if Franjiyye sits on a much higher number than the second Marada candidate)
- Jbeil = 1 (1 to Hawat and 1 to HA)
- Keserwen = 3
- Maten = 3 for FPM + 1 for Tashnak (I predict 1 to Murr, 1 to Kataeb, and the remaining 2 could end be 1 Kataeb and the 2nd to either LF, FPM or SSNP, or 1 LF and the second to either Kataeb, FPM or SSNP). I give us a 33% chance for 4 FPM here, but 3 most likely.
- Baabda = 2
- Aley = 1
- Chouf = 1 guaranteed and a real chance for 2
- Zahle = 1
- Jezzine = 2 (3 not impossible but unlikely)
- Beirut 1 = 2 for FPM and 2 for Tashnak
- Western Bekaa = 1 to Elie Ferzli --> to join C&R block

This is a total of 23 seats for the C&R block and I think we will win one more in either Chouf, Akkar, Jezzine or Maten for a total of 24. This is two more than the number we won in 2009 (22) when excluding Arslan (2) and Marada (3). 22 or more is a good result as we wouldn't have gone backwards. My guess is that C&R seats will be distributed as follows:

- FPM = 17 (2 less than what we have now, but not bad given the new PR law)
- Tachnak = 3
- Other allies = 4 (i.e. Chamel Roukoz, Elie Ferzli, Ziad Baroud, Massoud Ashkar)

This would be equal to HA/AMAL. Not a bad result if true eventhough I think FPM can add 1 or 2 more in some district. 26/128 is about 20.3% of the Parliament. My hope is that LF get at least 12-15 seats and we as christians 1/3+1 the Parliament also eventhough I know its hard to do.
What are the chances that FPM take either the christian seat in Tripoli or the christian seat in Baalbeck? There are 4 seats in these two districts. I think one in Tripoli will be for FPM.
I really want to hit Berri hard in his district Zahrani. Is there no chance for a FPM person in Zahrani???
 
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    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    This would be equal to HA/AMAL. Not a bad result if true eventhough I think FPM can add 1 or 2 more in some district. 26/128 is about 20.3% of the Parliament. My hope is that LF get at least 12-15 seats and we as christians 1/3+1 the Parliament also eventhough I know its hard to do.
    What are the chances that FPM take either the christian seat in Tripoli or the christian seat in Baalbeck? There are 4 seats in these two districts. I think one in Tripoli will be for FPM.
    I really want to hit Berri hard in his district Zahrani. Is there no chance for a FPM person in Zahrani???
    Tripoli is not impossible and I should have listed it as a ‘maybe’. I know a few Christians from the Donniyye district and most of them are FPM supporters, which helps.

    In relation to Baalback, Christians are only strong enough to get one hasel, and it will most likely go to LF given their popularity in big towns like Deir al Ahmar. FM should have the numbers to win one of the two Sunni seats. An LF alliance with FM may also deliver one more seat, but HA/Amal should easily win at least 7/10 in that district.

    And finally Zahrani, if all the Christians voted for the same candidate and had the same participation rate as the Shiites, this will fall short of one hasel. They would need Shiite votes. Zahrani will be hard. The only way I can see a khare2 in Sour/Zahrani is if the Christians back a strong Shiite candidate running against the duo, maybe someone from the Communist party. That way you have the overwhelming majority of the Christian vote plus some Shiite votes which might achieve one hasel, but still tough.
     
    E

    Eliassss

    Well-Known Member
    der el ahmar kila 15 day3a ma byotla3 3addad lness li btentikheb shi 10000 (2iza kataret) w2akid mish kilon 2ouwet.
     
    Abotareq93

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    My prediction for the entire C&R block is as follows:

    - Akkar = 1 (possibly 2, but 1 is more likely)
    - Northern Christian District = 2 --> 1 in Batroun and 1 more in either Koura or Zgharta (if Franjiyye sits on a much higher number than the second Marada candidate)
    - Jbeil = 1 (1 to Hawat and 1 to HA)
    - Keserwen = 3
    - Maten = 3 for FPM + 1 for Tashnak (I predict 1 to Murr, 1 to Kataeb, and the remaining 2 could end be 1 Kataeb and the 2nd to either LF, FPM or SSNP, or 1 LF and the second to either Kataeb, FPM or SSNP). I give us a 33% chance for 4 FPM here, but 3 most likely.
    - Baabda = 2
    - Aley = 1
    - Chouf = 1 guaranteed and a real chance for 2
    - Zahle = 1
    - Jezzine = 2 (3 not impossible but unlikely)
    - Beirut 1 = 2 for FPM and 2 for Tashnak
    - Western Bekaa = 1 to Elie Ferzli --> to join C&R block

    This is a total of 23 seats for the C&R block and I think we will win one more in either Chouf, Akkar, Jezzine or Maten for a total of 24. This is two more than the number we won in 2009 (22) when excluding Arslan (2) and Marada (3). 22 or more is a good result as we wouldn't have gone backwards. My guess is that C&R seats will be distributed as follows:

    - FPM = 17 (2 less than what we have now, but not bad given the new PR law)
    - Tachnak = 3
    - Other allies = 4 (i.e. Chamel Roukoz, Elie Ferzli, Ziad Baroud, Massoud Ashkar)
    23 is a great result and it will mean that C&R block will be the biggest one in the next Parliament.
     
    C

    California Republic

    New Member
    The difficulty of winning a seat in Tripoli is that the proportion of Christians is about 11-12% of the total electorate, and their voting rates must be high and the majority of them are focusing on a particular candidate. Tayyar popularity is good as well as Miqati and Safadi. It is not impossible of course

    In Beirut 2 it is easier for FPM to get one seat
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    جيلبيرت معه

    الثلاثاء 23 كانون الثاني 2018 - 06:28

    علم موقع "ليبانون فايلز"، ان النائبة جيلبيرت زوين تنوي الترشح على لائحة النائب السابق فريد هيكل الخازن في دائرة كسروان - جبيل.
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    Tripoli is not impossible and I should have listed it as a ‘maybe’. I know a few Christians from the Donniyye district and most of them are FPM supporters, which helps.

    In relation to Baalback, Christians are only strong enough to get one hasel, and it will most likely go to LF given their popularity in big towns like Deir al Ahmar. FM should have the numbers to win one of the two Sunni seats. An LF alliance with FM may also deliver one more seat, but HA/Amal should easily win at least 7/10 in that district.

    And finally Zahrani, if all the Christians voted for the same candidate and had the same participation rate as the Shiites, this will fall short of one hasel. They would need Shiite votes. Zahrani will be hard. The only way I can see a khare2 in Sour/Zahrani is if the Christians back a strong Shiite candidate running against the duo, maybe someone from the Communist party. That way you have the overwhelming majority of the Christian vote plus some Shiite votes which might achieve one hasel, but still tough.
    The sunnis are 20K. If 50% vote you have 10K + metel ma 2elet communist party etc.
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    The difficulty of winning a seat in Tripoli is that the proportion of Christians is about 11-12% of the total electorate, and their voting rates must be high and the majority of them are focusing on a particular candidate. Tayyar popularity is good as well as Miqati and Safadi. It is not impossible of course

    In Beirut 2 it is easier for FPM to get one seat
    I don't understand lech heiye hard. 11% from a district + the dinnieh/minnieh which can be given to a list in Tripoli :)

    100/11 is 9.09
    If half the sunnis vote and half the christians vote why cant we get a 7asel.
     
    C

    California Republic

    New Member
    I don't understand lech heiye hard. 11% from a district + the dinnieh/minnieh which can be given to a list in Tripoli :)

    100/11 is 9.09
    If half the sunnis vote and half the christians vote why cant we get a 7asel.

    Depends on two things, first the proportion of the vote of the Christians, and secondly secondly agree on specific candidate to vote as a single block
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    Depends on two things, first the proportion of the vote of the Christians, and secondly secondly agree on specific candidate to vote as a single block
    Its even harder for the sunnis as they are not one block houne. The majority of the christians in Tripoli would not be with FM.
     
    TheMaronite

    TheMaronite

    New Member
    I want you to pray for the lives of many of your future mps, especially Ibrahim Canaan who is the finest one among them.

    You have to expect assassinations within the FPM/C&R bloc after the elections.

    I will remind you anyway.

    HA is disassociating from FPM and you all know that: look at jbeil and kesrwan, and in many places in Lebanon, HA will not ally with FPM.

    HA is now adopting a new strategy by bolstering semi strong christians such as franjieh, haykal el khazen, murr, harb, and other feudal leaders strong only in their own district. It is more convenient for him to group them under one alliance and associate himsef with such second rated leaders. HA no longer requires a strong partnership with FPM/C&R because the alliance with FPM is totally consumed. GMA got all what he wanted with the help of HA: presidency, large christian representativity, large number of mps, GB will be at last mp in batroun.

    So now clearly HA no longer needs FPM anymore, especially that FPM is causing troubles with his principal shiite ally : berry
    And we all know that Ha, afterall, is a terrorist militia who would slay anyone in its way. It is even strongly presumed that HA is behind Hariri assassination.

    Now HA will never forgive kanaan for having cooked the christian reconciliation with riachy and the ouwet.

    So it will be tasfiyet 7issebet. Now all is fun, it s elections, everybody is working hi s a ss as hard as he can. Bravo. Bas ba3den ...

    FPM is building ties with Hariri and FM , which clearly deranges HA.

    So clearly FPM has at last realized that this is what should have happen 13 years ago , when FPM and FM were together along with other less strong parties: To build a strong country with Gma president and hariri as pm. But no, gma had other motives, and preferred associate himself with HA.

    Bravo. Now that, at last, fpm woke up from his slumber 13 years later (better later than ever). We will see what will happen

    It is sad I know, but it s politics, one had to be realistic afterall.
    I hope My predictions are wrong. Correct me please
     
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    R

    Randomiser

    New Member
    I want you to pray for the lives of many of your future mps, especially Ibrahim Canaan who is the finest one among them.

    You have to expect assassinations within the FPM/C&R bloc after the elections.

    I will remind you anyway.

    HA is disassociating from FPM and you all know that: look at jbeil and kesrwan, and in many places in Lebanon, HA will not ally with FPM.

    HA is now adopting a new strategy by bolstering semi strong christians such as franjieh, haykal el khazen, murr, harb, and other feudal leaders strong only in their own district. It is more convenient for him to group them under one alliance and associate himsef with such second rated leaders. HA no longer requires a strong partnership with FPM/C&R because the alliance with FPM is totally consumed. GMA got all what he wanted with the help of HA: presidency, large christian representativity, large number of mps, GB will be at last mp in batroun.

    So now clearly HA no longer needs FPM anymore, especially that FPM is causing troubles with his principal shiite ally : berry
    And we all know that Ha, afterall, is a terrorist militia who would slay anyone in its way. It is even strongly presumed that HA is behind Hariri assassination.

    Now HA will never forgive kanaan for having cooked the christian reconciliation with riachy and the ouwet.

    So it will be tasfiyet 7issebet. Now all is fun, it s elections, everybody is working hi s a ss as hard as he can. Bravo. Bas ba3den ...

    FPM is building ties with Hariri and FM , which clearly deranges HA.

    So clearly FPM has at last realized that this is what should have happen 13 years ago , when FPM and FM were together along with other less strong parties: To build a strong country with Gma president and hariri as pm. But no, gma had other motives, and preferred associate himself with HA.

    Bravo. Now that, at last, fpm woke up from his slumber 13 years later (better later than ever). We will see what will happen

    It is sad I know, but it s politics, one had to be realistic afterall.
    I hope My predictions are wrong. Correct me please
    Yeah, your place with FM which is probably one of the most corrupt parties directly responsible for debt and bankrupting the country. what happened to the الابراء المستحيل :lol::lol::lol:

    You forget that without Hezbollah, Aoun could never have been a president nor a decent electoral law being approved since FM only likes unfair majoriatian laws like 1960 law or Ghazi Kanaan Law!

    Alliance with Hezbollah was a necessity and is the major factor in rise of FPM to power against FM. Berri was never an ally, just the ally of the ally!
    Now after 13 years and FPM successfully turned from secular party which many had hope into an other typical sectarian tribal lebanese party.

    Hezbollah had the chance to elect Franjieyeh, but they sticked to Aoun. Unlike the whole march 14 who turned all against each other.
     
    Lebnaouneh

    Lebnaouneh

    Well-Known Member
    I want you to pray for the lives of many of your future mps, especially Ibrahim Canaan who is the finest one among them.

    You have to expect assassinations within the FPM/C&R bloc after the elections.

    I will remind you anyway.

    HA is disassociating from FPM and you all know that: look at jbeil and kesrwan, and in many places in Lebanon, HA will not ally with FPM.

    HA is now adopting a new strategy by bolstering semi strong christians such as franjieh, haykal el khazen, murr, harb, and other feudal leaders strong only in their own district. It is more convenient for him to group them under one alliance and associate himsef with such second rated leaders. HA no longer requires a strong partnership with FPM/C&R because the alliance with FPM is totally consumed. GMA got all what he wanted with the help of HA: presidency, large christian representativity, large number of mps, GB will be at last mp in batroun.

    So now clearly HA no longer needs FPM anymore, especially that FPM is causing troubles with his principal shiite ally : berry
    And we all know that Ha, afterall, is a terrorist militia who would slay anyone in its way. It is even strongly presumed that HA is behind Hariri assassination.

    Now HA will never forgive kanaan for having cooked the christian reconciliation with riachy and the ouwet.

    So it will be tasfiyet 7issebet. Now all is fun, it s elections, everybody is working hi s a ss as hard as he can. Bravo. Bas ba3den ...

    FPM is building ties with Hariri and FM , which clearly deranges HA.

    So clearly FPM has at last realized that this is what should have happen 13 years ago , when FPM and FM were together along with other less strong parties: To build a strong country with Gma president and hariri as pm. But no, gma had other motives, and preferred associate himself with HA.

    Bravo. Now that, at last, fpm woke up from his slumber 13 years later (better later than ever). We will see what will happen

    It is sad I know, but it s politics, one had to be realistic afterall.
    I hope My predictions are wrong. Correct me please
    Shut the hell up kid, know what you’re talking about first before posting.
    It was FM that fought Aoun and not the other way around.
    Aoun was offered 6-7 MPs max by 14 March otherwise they told him to forget it.
    They dumped Aoun to ally with HEZBOLLAH.
    After elections, Aoun asked for 5 ministers, they rather give them to LAHOUD.
    They preferred to back Nassib Lahoud and others to presidency than Michel Aoun even though he got 70% of christian votes.
    It is FM that has learned its lesson and not the other way around.
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    FM/FPM/LF really need to work hard in Jezzine/Saida if they want to win.
    I think FM and FPM will be one list.
    LF won't be on the same list. FPM will try to get the 2 maronite candidate and LF the catholic one.
    FPM can no way get all three. FPM said to LF eventhough we might be running different lists we will support Haddad against Azar. So I am assuming this will translate to vote how much??? I don't know.
    LF are saying that Haddad 3ando 6K votes. Their list is Kataeb ma3oun?? also an unknown.
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Interesting analysis

    طوني عيسى - جريدة الجمهورية

    للتذكير، هناك فقط أسبوعان وتنتهي مهلة الترشّح للانتخابات. صحيح أنّ القوى السياسية كلّها حدّدت مواعيد لتقديم لوائحها، لكن حماوة التحضير لهذه الانتخابات المصيرية لا تتجاوز الحماوة التي ترافق عادةً أي انتخابات نقابية عادية. وفي تاريخه، لم يشهد لبنان مثل هذه البرودة والغموض والإرباك عشيّة انتخاباته النيابية. فهل يعود ذلك إلى أنّ البعض لا يصدِّق أنّ الانتخابات ستُجرى في موعدها أو، بالأحرى، أنه لا يريد أن يصدق؟

    يتردَّد في بعض الأوساط أنّ قوى أساسية لا تزال غير واثقة في أن الانتخابات ستُجرى في 6 أيار، لكنها تخشى أن تعلن ذلك، وتصرّ على التعاطي مع الانتخابات وكأنها حاصلة حتماً، خوفاً من تعرّضها هي وقواعدها الناخبة لصدمة معينة.

    فهذه القوى تتحسَّب لاحتمال أن يكون هناك من يتعمَّد زرع الشكوك في جدّية إجراء الانتخابات في موعدها، لأنه يريد الذهاب في اللحظات الأخيرة إلى صناديق الاقتراع و»الغدر» بالقوى التي فاجأتها المعركة، ويتحقق فوزٌ سهلٌ للقوى التي تمتلك ماكينات منظمة وجماهير موالية، ولها سلطة القرار.

    هذا المنطق فيه كثير من الصواب. وإشاعة الكلام على التأجيل قد تكون جزءاً من تكتيك القوى المستفيدة من الانتخابات لإضعاف الخصوم إلى أقصى حدّ ممكن وإبقائهم في حال الإرباك. ولا بدّ لهؤلاء، تحوُّطاً، من أن يحافظوا على دينامية انتخابية عالية المستوى… إلى أن يَثبت لهم «بالعين المجرَّدة» أنّ الانتخابات «طارت من مكانها»، إذا كان يُراد تطييرها فعلاً.

    المتابعون ما زالوا حتى اليوم يقولون: حظوظُ إجراء الانتخابات لا تتجاوز الـ50% على رغم الضجيج المثار حولها. ويمكن القول إنّ ورقة 6 أيار ما زالت قيد المساومة بين القوى النافذة. وعلى أساس النتائج سيكون القرار بإنجاز الاستحقاق بعد شهرين ونصف الشهر أو في موعد آخر.

    مَن هم المحشورون بالانتخابات حالياً، أي الذين يرغبون في تأجيلها؟ وما حدود قدرتهم على تحقيق هذا الهدف؟

    بات واضحاً أنّ كتلتين أساسيتين في المجلس النيابي الحالي، هما «التيار الوطني الحرّ» و»المستقبل» ستصيبهما الانتخابات المقبلة بأضرار جسيمة. واللافت أنهما كتلتا رئيس الجمهورية ورئيس الحكومة، أي اثنين من «ترويكا» الحكم. كما أنهما الكتلتان الأكبر للمسيحيين والسنّة في المجلس النيابي.

    هذا يعني أنّ الرئيسين ميشال عون وسعد الحريري لن يكونا بعد الانتخابات بالقوة إيّاها، في السلطة وفي المجلس النيابي والمعنويات العالية لجهة التمثيل الشعبي. وعلى العكس، ستُظهِر صناديق الاقتراع أنّ ثالث «الترويكا»، الرئيس نبيه بري، مع «حزب الله»، سيكون أقوى في الحكم والمجلس النيابي والتمثيل الشعبي.

    وهناك مآزق عدّة، واقعية ورمزية، تنتظر باسيل والحريري في المعركة، عدا عن المأزق الأساسي الذي هو تراجع الكتلتين في الحجم، ومنها:

    - ما التداعيات المحتملة، سياسياً، إذا لم يستطع الوزير جبران باسيل، مرّة أخرى، دخول المجلس النيابي؟

    - ما تداعيات استعادة بري مقعداً نيابياً في جزين - وهو أمر شبه محسوم- بفضل النظام النسبي والصوت التفضيلي وانحياز «حزب الله» إلى شريكه الشيعي في هذه الدائرة؟

    - ماذا لو جاءت نتائج معركة كسروان - جبيل، حيث رمزية مقعد عون، مخيّبة لـ»التيار»؟

    - كيف ستنعكس خسارة «المستقبل»- المرجَّحة - مقعداً نيابياً في صيدا لمصلحة مرشح «حزب الله» المهندس أسامة سعد؟

    - ما انعكاسات معركة طرابلس إذا تحالف الرئيس نجيب ميقاتي واللواء أشرف ريفي وربما قوى طرابلسية أخرى؟

    - هل يضمن الحريري نتائج معركة بيروت في ظل القانون الحالي؟

    - كيف يقول الحريري إنه سيخوض معركة سياسية ضد سيطرة «حزب الله» في الانتخابات، فيما هو يتحالف كلياً مع حليفه المسيحي الوحيد، «التيار الوطني الحر»؟

    يعاني باسيل من مأزق أنّ «حزب الله» اختار بري أولوية انتخابية. وعلى العكس، يعاني الحريري من مأزق اختياره إعلان الحرب المفتوحة على «حزب الله» في هذه الانتخابات.

    واقعياً، سيراهن باسيل على التنسيق مع بري، بواسطة «الحزب»، حيث تقتضي المصلحة المتبادلة. وسيراهن الحريري على التنسيق مع «الحزب»، من خلال بري، حيث تقتضي المصلحة المتبادلة أيضاً.

    أساساً، بخسارة قانون 1960، خسر باسيل والحريري فضائل تركيب البوسطات والمحادل في دوائر معينة، وركوبها في دوائر أخرى. وتمكّن السائق الشيعي من تدبير أموره بالقانون الجديد، تاركاً للآخرين أن «يدبِّروا رؤوسهم».

    وتوقيت المعركة الملتهبة بين بري وباسيل ليس مناسباً للثاني. وعون أخذ على عاتقه «الصلحة بالواسطة»، لكنّ الأزمة مستمرة في العمق. وهي مكلفة لباسيل لا لبري.

    بعد الانتخابات النيابية، سيضمن بري استمراره في رئاسة المجلس لأنّ الثنائي الشيعي يمتلك غالبية مريحة. ولكن، أي أزمة ستقع إذا وضع رئيس المجلس شروطاً مقابل الموافقة على عودة باسيل إلى الحكومة المقبلة وتسليمه الحقائب التي يطمح إليها عادةً؟

    إذاً، من مصلحة باسيل (عون) والحريري تأجيل الانتخابات. وربما تكون قوى دولية غير متحمّسة لإجرائها أيضاً ما دامت ستؤدي، في ظل هذا القانون والمعطيات السياسية، إلى سيطرة كاملة لـ»حزب الله» على القرار في لبنان.

    للأسباب إيّاها، يرغب «حزب الله» في إجراء الانتخابات في أقرب ما يمكن ليضمن الغالبية المنشودة والتحكّم بالقرار اللبناني، تَحوُّطاً لمعطيات إقليمية تضعف إيران وداخلية قد تقود إلى إضعاف نفوذه.

    لكنّ «الحزب»، في الوقت عينه، ربما يكون مستعداً للمساومة على التأجيل بضعة أشهر إذا كانت أرباحه مضمونة من هذه المساومة، وتكرِّس نفوذه في العهد الحالي ومؤسساته وحكومته الحالية والمقبلة… وصولاً إلى العهد المقبل.

    في هذه الحال، ينشأ تقاطع بين قوى متصارعة حول خيار تطيير الانتخابات، كلٌّ منها يريده من أجل تحقيق هدف معين. ولكن، مَن سيتخذ المبادرة حينئذٍ لتبرير التعطيل، من دون أن يتحمَّل المسؤولية؟

    ليس هناك جسمٌ لبّيس أكثر من العدو الإسرائيلي. وتوقيت تصعيده البحري والبري لا يناسب السيادة الوطنية لكنه مناسب لتطيير الاستحقاقات الدستورية، ويصلح «ذريعة نموذجية»… إذا احتاج الأمر إلى ذلك!
     
    Last edited:
    L

    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    Interesting analysis

    طوني عيسى - جريدة الجمهورية
    الاستحقاقات الدستورية، ويصلح «ذريعة نموذجية»… إذا احتاج الأمر إلى ذلك!
    Chouf enta 3a te7lil min mettekil nkeyeh bi bassil :D:D:D

    - 10 days before the nomination of Aoun by Geagea إلى متى ينتظر عون الـ «نَعَم» من جعجع؟

    وإذا تمّت زيارة «ردِّ الإِجْر» من الرابية لمعراب، فمن المؤكد أنها لن تنتهي بقول جعجع كلمة «نعم» لترشيح عون.

    - 2 weeks before the nomination of Aoun by Hariri الحريري يتولّى «تنفيس» حراك عون

    الحراك الجاري بين بيت الوسط وبنشعي والرابية وعين التينة وكليمنصو لا يستهدف إطلاقاً انتخاب العماد ميشال عون، كما يتخيّل البعض أو يتمنى، بل البحث عن سبيل لـ»تنفيس» الحراك «المزعج للجميع» الذي قرَّر عون المضيّ فيه

    Tony Issa 7ass 7alo zakeh w huwweh 3am bi 7allil, enta halla2 chou 7esis 7alak w enta mou3jab bi te7lileto? :D
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Chouf enta 3a te7lil min mettekil nkeyeh bi bassil :D:D:D

    - 10 days before the nomination of Aoun by Geagea إلى متى ينتظر عون الـ «نَعَم» من جعجع؟

    وإذا تمّت زيارة «ردِّ الإِجْر» من الرابية لمعراب، فمن المؤكد أنها لن تنتهي بقول جعجع كلمة «نعم» لترشيح عون.

    - 2 weeks before the nomination of Aoun by Hariri الحريري يتولّى «تنفيس» حراك عون

    الحراك الجاري بين بيت الوسط وبنشعي والرابية وعين التينة وكليمنصو لا يستهدف إطلاقاً انتخاب العماد ميشال عون، كما يتخيّل البعض أو يتمنى، بل البحث عن سبيل لـ»تنفيس» الحراك «المزعج للجميع» الذي قرَّر عون المضيّ فيه

    Tony Issa 7ass 7alo zakeh w huwweh 3am bi 7allil, enta halla2 chou 7esis 7alak w enta mou3jab bi te7lileto? :D
    7asses 7ali mabsout stafazayt Bassili ;) ;) ;)
     
    Placebo

    Placebo

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    So latest count for fpm based on general predictions, and on the fact that FPM always underperforms in elections:

    Akkar: 1
    NCD :1
    Keserwen/jbeil : 3 (excluding bon or frem, the list will probably win 4/8)
    Metn: 3 (excluding tashnag)
    Baabda : 1
    Beirut 1: 1 (excluding tashnag)
    Chouf/aley: 2 (3 is possible)
    Jezzine-saida:1
    Zahle: 1
    Westbekaa:1

    15/16 FPM
    +
    ~4 tashnag

    C&R: 20
     
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