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Can HA really take Galilee or Jerusalem in the next war ?

JustLeb

JustLeb

Legendary Member
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Zionist sources considered that Al-Manar TV Channel’s “Illusion Dike” documentary was broadcast in the context of the deterrent messages sent by Hezbollah to ‘Israel’.

The report uncovers the Israeli measures taken on the northern Palestinian border with Lebanon to confront Hezbollah in case its fighters stormed Galilee during any upcoming war.

The photos and scenes displayed by the “Illusion Dike” were captured by whom it described as “Hezbollah intelligence agents” in broad daylight, Maariv newspaper said, adding this proves the Islamic Resistance capabilities to monitor the Israeli military activities.

The Zionist paper said the documentary shows that Hezbollah monitors the Zionist means used to collect data, antennas, radars and engineering equipment used to construct the terrestrial barriers, noting that the “Illusion Dike” displayed Israeli testimonies to illuminate the Zionist fears of Hezbollah power, especially the tunnels.

Maariv also highlighted the Hebrew subtitle of the documentary, including mainly Hezbollah Secretary General’s threat to storm Galilee, concluding that Al-Manar aimed at addressing the Lebanese and the Israelis in order to intensify the Zionist fears of the Islamic Resistance and to promote its power in Lebanon.

Maariv, moreover, maintained that the documentary stresses that all the Israeli border measures will fail to prevent Hezbollah from entering Galilee when the party’s command decide to storm it, adding that the report also highlights Hezbollah sophisticated capabilities in the field of observing all the Israeli preparations, measures and activities on the northern border.

Maariv finally reported that Hezbollah message sent by the “Illusion Dike” intersects with the Lebanese officials statements which have blamed the Zionist entity for any potential escalation on border and stressed Lebanon right to defend itself against any Israeli aggression.
 
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  • !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    This so called 'resistance' is a disgrace. Going into other lands, fighting other people's wars, smuggling arms here and there. Never seen in my life a resistance like this. What a shame. Nasrallah is the state. He doesnt care about state institutions nor PMA. Mano chi jdid ya3ne.
     
    Dreaming in Red

    Dreaming in Red

    Active Member
    This so called 'resistance' is a disgrace. Going into other lands, fighting other people's wars, smuggling arms here and there. Never seen in my life a resistance like this. What a shame. Nasrallah is the state. He doesnt care about state institutions nor PMA. Mano chi jdid ya3ne.
    This disgrace is the only reason your "emperor" is in the throne, so he decides everything, you just nod to him.
     
    Manifesto

    Manifesto

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    This so called 'resistance' is a disgrace. Going into other lands, fighting other people's wars, smuggling arms here and there. Never seen in my life a resistance like this. What a shame. Nasrallah is the state. He doesnt care about state institutions nor PMA. Mano chi jdid ya3ne.
    To be honest, I'd rather have a Jewish democratic state on our southern border than a Hamas-led Islamist country.
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    an interesting documentary that shows what would be the shape of the next war:

     
    opium

    opium

    Well-Known Member
    This is wishful thinking.
    I have no doubt that they can penetrate and take some towns.
    But strategically it has no value as they will be sacrificing their elite forces in a matter of few hours/days. They will be surrounded and annihilated very fast. Main reason is that they cannot have supply lines to maintain any gain. Unless they can paralyse the opponent air forces which I very doubt.

    Most viable scenarios is to do fast sabotage raids on many fronts with small groups simultaneously, and retreat once the missions are achieved.
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    This is wishful thinking.
    I have no doubt that they can penetrate and take some towns.
    But strategically it has no value as they will be sacrificing their elite forces in a matter of few hours/days. They will be surrounded and annihilated very fast. Main reason is that they cannot have supply lines to maintain any gain. Unless they can paralyse the opponent air forces which I very doubt.

    Most viable scenarios is to do fast sabotage raids on many fronts with small groups simultaneously, and retreat once the missions are achieved.
    There is another scenario that is more realistic than the offensive and is more suitable to HA original defensive tactics and of course capabilities.
    Such scenario is to lure the israelis into an offensive in south Lebanon, be able to encircle one or two brigades and destroy them with a series of traps and small scale counter attacks. In short, lure them into a trap, a killing zone.
    The psychological effect will be enormous if not devastating.
    I saw an israeli report from i24news made for the 10th anniversary of the 2006 war. They spoke with a guy who was a junior officer at the time.
    he spoke about how he lead his unit into south lebanon and the horrors they saw, the report said his battalion or the company he was serving in sustained 33 losses in a matter of few hours. When they returned back they all fell to the ground and cried. He is carrying the trauma even 10 years later.
    So imagine if a whole brigade was destroyed.

    Now you will ask why would the israelis do this, and go directly into a trap.
    Well there are several reasons that you can pull from history:

    1- Dumbness: simply the high command was too dumb to see the trap. this has been seen in 1940 when the french and english high command didn't see the trap made for them by the germans in Belgium and resulted in the fall of France.

    2- Arrogance and personal interests: every general is a combination of many psychological extremes, many are simply arrogant careerists who want to advance their career either in the military or later in politics through a big military victory. So they don't shy from taking risks others don't dare to take. An example for that is english general Montgomery in 1944 who decided the operation Market Garden which resulted in the loss of 8K of the attacking 10K paratroopers in return of little gain.

    3- The prize is too appealing to be ignored: HA would have deliberately given the israelis the impression and the information that the bulk of its forces is in the "trap zone", so the israelis would very much think that knocking out these forces will destroy HA for good. Such pattern can be seen in the battles of Stalingrad and Kursk.

    Being on the defensive will protect HA from air raids and will expose the israelis to more sophisticated anti-tank, anti-personnel weapons and tactics.
    Suppose such scenario is successful and a one or two brigade were wiped out, with other units bogged down into intense fighting, there will be a gap created which HA could exploit to enter and take part of Galilee for some time. Of course the supply lines are still problematic.

    I don't think this is wishful thinking but more planning and preparations. Actually if you follow the news, almost everyone in israel says in the next war they will start the ground offensive very quickly. What remains for HA is (try) to funnel them into one or more killing zones.
    Actually HA succeeded in doing the same thing at a small scale in 1997 at the battle of Ansarieh where the whole commando unit was destroyed. (Israel ambushed: Double agent lured soldiers to death in Lebanon) this outdated article says a double agent, but in 2010 SHN said they intercepted the drone signal and new the plan of the israelis and set the trap.
     
    Last edited:
    My Moria Moon

    My Moria Moon

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    To be honest, I'd rather have a Jewish democratic state on our southern border than a Hamas-led Islamist country.
    A Jewish democratic state having its guns constantly pointed at you, is no good neither. In that case, a Hamas-led Islamist dictatorship, leaving you be, is still to prefer.

    If you ask me, I don't mind neither the one nor the other, on two conditions:

    1- Repatriate back the palestinian refugees in Lebanon
    2- Mind their own business, leaving us be
     
    Indie

    Indie

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    No worries indie,
    don't worry I am a compassionate guy :D :D :D

    Now as for your comment, here's a thing. There has been a steady trend of the resistance movement that is making them more efficient and more flexible. In 1967 israel won in 6 days over 3 countries, in 1982 they reached Beirut in one week.

    However in 2000 they were forced to leave lebanon, in 2006 they fought for 30 days without achieving any victory despite the huge technological advantage they have.

    Since 2011 SHN has steadily repeating that in the next war HA will enter Galilee...this constitutes a big leap of confidence in his capabilities.
    SHN has been carful to create the image of a credible leader who unlike arab leaders don't sell his own people nonsense.
    So if he says he will capture Galilee, there is no chance that he is making a joke.

    The big question that remains how would he do this ?
    I don't know how he intends to do this. All I know is that it will cause massive death and destruction, so he better calm his nerves and find diplomatic solutions to the issue of Palestians in Lebanon. Outside of this, and the protection of Lebanese borders, Lebanese people have nothing to do with Israel or Jerusalem.
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I don't know how he intends to do this. All I know is that it will cause massive death and destruction, so he better calm his nerves and find diplomatic solutions to the issue of Palestians in Lebanon. Outside of this, and the protection of Lebanese borders, Lebanese people have nothing to do with Israel or Jerusalem.
    I assure you I am not holding him back :)
    But since he said it, I am trying with my colleagues the other generals to figure out how is he going to do it :D
    It is unfortunate you don't seem to want to be a general :D a feminist like you shouldn't leave such an opportunity slip away ;)
     
    Indie

    Indie

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I assure you I am not holding him back :)
    But since he said it, I am trying with my colleagues the other generals to figure out how is he going to do it :D
    It is unfortunate you don't seem to want to be a general :D a feminist like you shouldn't leave such an opportunity slip away ;)
    Tayeb...I will leave you boys to your games :)

    Warmongering is not my thing, even if it's pretend.

    Besides @joseph_lubnan is working hard to recruit me to his camp, and we're agreeing too much lately. It doesn't feel natural :p
     
    J

    joseph_lubnan

    Legendary Member
    Tayeb...I will leave you boys to your games :)

    Warmongering is not my thing, even if it's pretend.

    Besides @joseph_lubnan is working hard to recruit me to his camp, and we're agreeing too much lately. It doesn't feel natural :p
    It does doesn't it? Just recruit me to your camp instead :)
     
    SeaAb

    SeaAb

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    There is another scenario that is more realistic than the offensive and is more suitable to HA original defensive tactics and of course capabilities.
    Such scenario is to lure the israelis into an offensive in south Lebanon, be able to encircle one or two brigades and destroy them with a series of traps and small scale counter attacks. In short, lure them into a trap, a killing zone.
    The psychological effect will be enormous if not devastating.
    I saw an israeli report from i24news made for the 10th anniversary of the 2006 war. They spoke with a guy who was a junior officer at the time.
    he spoke about how he lead his unit into south lebanon and the horrors they saw, the report said his battalion or the company he was serving in sustained 33 losses in a matter of few hours. When they returned back they all fell to the ground and cried. He is carrying the trauma even 10 years later.
    So imagine if a whole brigade was destroyed.

    Now you will ask why would the israelis do this, and go directly into a trap.
    Well there are several reasons that you can pull from history:

    1- Dumbness: simply the high command was too dumb to see the trap. this has been seen in 1940 when the french and english high command didn't see the trap made for them by the germans in Belgium and resulted in the fall of France.

    2- Arrogance and personal interests: every general is a combination of many psychological extremes, many are simply arrogant careerists who want to advance their career either in the military or later in politics through a big military victory. So they don't shy from taking risks others don't dare to take. An example for that is english general Montgomery in 1944 who decided the operation Market Garden which resulted in the loss of 8K of the attacking 10K paratroopers in return of little gain.

    3- The prize is too appealing to be ignored: HA would have deliberately given the israelis the impression and the information that the bulk of its forces is in the "trap zone", so the israelis would very much think that knocking out these forces will destroy HA for good. Such pattern can be seen in the battles of Stalingrad and Kursk.

    Being on the defensive will protect HA from air raids and will expose the israelis to more sophisticated anti-tank, anti-personnel weapons and tactics.
    Suppose such scenario is successful and a one or two brigade were wiped out, with other units bogged down into intense fighting, there will be a gap created which HA could exploit to enter and take part of Galilee for some time. Of course the supply lines are still problematic.

    I don't think this is wishful thinking but more planning and preparations. Actually if you follow the news, almost everyone in israel says in the next war they will start the ground offensive very quickly. What remains for HA is (try) to funnel them into one or more killing zones.
    Actually HA succeeded in doing the same thing at a small scale in 1997 at the battle of Ansarieh where the whole commando unit was destroyed. (Israel ambushed: Double agent lured soldiers to death in Lebanon) this outdated article says a double agent, but in 2010 SHN said they intercepted the drone signal and new the plan of the israelis and set the trap.
    @JustLeb You're assuming the next war or Israeli incursion is going to be in South Lebanon. Instead, every report i have read since 2006 has claimed that Israel plans to move in through the Bekaa valley to disrupt HA's supply lines - one of their Winograd commission learned lessons after 2006's sa7soo7. Yallah take this new piece of information into account and draw up a new strategy. :)
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Hezbollah: Next War with Israel “Will Reach the Galilee”

    The Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah warned that fighting during a future war with Israel “will reach the Galilee,” Israel Hayom reported on Sunday, citing Foreign Policy.

    “In the next war, Hezbollah won’t stay on the borders, and the Israeli settlements in the north will not be protected from this,” said a source close to the terrorist group. “Hezbollah will bring the war to them, and Israel’s biggest concern is over Hezbollah’s experience in Syria, as it now has the experience to be offensive rather than just defensive.”

    Another Hezbollah official warned that if Israel and Hezbollah fight again, “the resistance won’t stay in Lebanon; it will reach the Galilee.”

    According to Jeffrey White, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “Now Hezbollah has the ability to strike guided munitions across Israel; they can hit targets inside Israel — including central and southern areas — with increased accuracy, including command posts, airfields, and major economic targets.”

    White pointed to Hezbollah’s acquisition of new air-defense systems and Yakhont cruise missiles, which may pose a threat to Israel’s air force and enable Hezbollah to strike Israel’s oil platforms. (During its 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah fired nearly 3800rockets into Israel, threatening the hundreds of thousands of Israelis living in the country’s north.)

    However, both outside experts and sources inside Hezbollah said that it is unlikely that the terror group would attack Israel right now, both due to its current efforts in Syria and the political situation in Lebanon.

    During a meeting with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in August, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif boasted that the nuclear deal presented “a historic opportunity” to confront Israel. Before the deal was completed, former Iranian president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an ally of current president Hassan Rouhani, said that Israel feared the agreement because it would strengthen Iran. He added that one day Israel would be “wiped off the map.”

    Haaretz military correspondent Amos Harel predicted last August that Iran-backed attacks by Hezbollah from Syria would increase in the wake of the nuclear deal.

    An Israeli defense official told The New York Times in May that the buildup of Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure in southern Lebanese villages meant that “civilians are living in a military compound,” and that their lives were at risk. A few days later, a newspaper linked to Hezbollah confirmed the Israeli assessment.
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Hezbollah's Death Valley

    And earlier this month, the Israeli air force carried out mock raids over Hezbollah military positions and training camps in the eastern Lebanese town of Baalbek, which sources affiliated to the party speculate were done to test Hezbollah’s response level.

    “The Israelis want to see what sort of air-defense systems Hezbollah may be in possession of,” said one source.

    The Israel Defense Forces has also changed its operational assessment to reflect the likelihood that Hezbollah was in possession of advanced surface-to-air missile systems and had the ability to target Israeli fighter jets.

    But sources within the movement were coy when asked what new weapons Hezbollah might use in a future war.

    “Each war there are new surprises in terms of weapons, and we never reveal what we have until the time is ready,” another source added with a smile.
     
    Dreaming in Red

    Dreaming in Red

    Active Member
    Who is posting in my name?

    Edit: just saw theres a letter different.
     
    JustLeb

    JustLeb

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    empty post to be deleted whenever you have time :)
     
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