Elections Elections 2018 analysis and discussions.

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
#1
it seems now that the form of the electoral law is no longer ambiguous we can move on to discussing the consequences on each of the involved parties. at first look it seems seems as though

HA and Amal will be the least affected, however the communist will no doubt manage to impose itself in the shiite areas in biqaa and in the south and will probably manage to get several candidates into the parliament.

FPM
baabda: will lose 2 to 3 seats.
metn: will lose 2 to 4 seats.
kesrwen / jbeil will lose 2 to 4 seats.
koura / zgharta / bsharre / batroun will win 2 to 4 seats
zahle will win 1 to 2 seats
akkar / menyeh / donniyi will win 2 to 3 seats.
jizzine / saida will stay the same with 2 out of 5.
beirut FPM will win 1 or 2.
summary
worst case FPM block loses 5 members.
best case FPM block wins 5 additional members.


the LF block will increase significantly, probably will double in size, they will manage to impose themselves all over the map.

phalanges will end up with a block of 1.

Future movement is up in the air. it risks losing up to half its block size, and will give rise to ashraf rifi in addition to some extremist candidates.

Jumblat will end up with a block of 7 to 10 deputies.
 
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  • Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #2
    Does anyone know what the Beirut districts are?
    FPM I expect will have at least 20 MPs.
    2 in Jbeil
    3 Keserwen
    4 Metn
    2 Jezzine
    3 Baabda
    1 Chouf-Aley
    1 Zahle
    2 in Christian North
    1 in Akkar
    2 Beirut

    LF
    In the christian North they can grab 4 MPs.
    Zahle 3 MPs.
    Beirut 3 MPs.
    Chouf-Aley 2 MPs.
    Akkar 1 MP
    Baalbeck 1 MP
    Metn 1 MP
    Tripoli 1 MP


    The LF could double in size as their reach is mainly outside the christian Mount Lebanon. They are the main winners out of this election law and any proportional election law.

    WJ loses approx 5 maybe more. All depends on Hariri and the Christian Duo in Aley-Chouf. Aley is 55% Druze but Chouf is 33%.
    All up approx 42%
    Out of the 13 seats the Druze can win no more than 6 MPs. WJ wings have been clipped severely. He could probably win 1 in West Bekaa, 1 in Hasbaya and he will lose the seat in Beirut.

    Hariri will have a tough battle also. I don't expect he will be getting more than 20 MPs.
    Tripoli is a major setback for him and I don't expect him to gain more than 2 seats. Akkar out of 7 no more than 2-3. In Akkar Issam Fares with LF and FPM with a strong sunni candidate can be a strong opposition list and gather 40% of the total votes.
    Beirut II out of 11 no more than 4 seats. Saida 1 seat. I see Hariri in trouble.

    HA and AMAL akide will not get the 27 shia MPs. I expect they will receive at least 20 of them. They could lose 7 MPs + 1 or two christian one's which they have now. I assume that there will be a massive turnout for the communists and the leftists and the christians in those districts should support anyone against AMAL. It is time for AMAL's wings to be clipped also.
     
    #3
    Lets analyze it large Districts:

    • Beirut I(9 seats):

      1- LF-FPM-tashnag alliance

      2- Charbel Nahas is going to run the Civil Movement List there.

      While Christian trio clearly have a majority in this District, Charbel Nahas is popular and respected in Beirut generally and with a good campaign(he will be surely backed by Al Jadeed and LBC with 24/7 support) he can get 35%-40%+ from anti-establishment and pissed off voters from the current system especially the young people.

      The Results would be 60-70%:30-40% so it would be 6:3 or 5:4 for the Christian trio.



    • Beirut II(11 seats):

      - FM List and headed by Sa'ad Hariri, in Beirut Municipal Elections ~35% went against his List in old-Beirut 3, now about 40k Shia voters added to it.

      - Possible Hezbollah-led List which would include strong Sunni opposition figures, there is 75,000 Shia voters in Beirut II that would make 3-4 seats if half of them voted.
      - Charbel Nahas Movement announced he would a run list in Beirut II as well, he'd get most of Shia votes if Hezbollah didn't sponsor a List there, he is going to get votes of pissed off and young voters would get 2-3 seats even if Hezbollah-alliance run a list as well.
      Again Al Jadeed and LBC will have massive support for such Lists.

      It would end up as 5 seats for FM. 3 seats for Hezbollah-alliance and 3 Civil Movement.

    • Tripoli + Minnieh Denieh( 11 seats):

      - General Rifi List is most likely to get half of the vote thus 6 seats.

      - Two of FM, Mikati, Karami will end up with 2 seats and 1 of them only 1 seat

      - Civic Movement List might effect the results however I have no idea how much support they have there.

    • Nabatiye-Marjeyoun-Bnet Jbiel - Hasbaya( 11 Seats):

      - Hezbollah/Amal and "other" allies, they are mostly likely to run jointly.

      - Civic Movement, the South is it's stronghold, also most communist support comes from there. Comparing with the Municipal Elections results, they can win 30%-35% of average votes in most towns and majority in number of them. Most of the Christian/Sunni/Druze Vote will be with them, if there was no other available option.

      - WJ/Hariri/FPM/LF have a low chance of reaching the threshold, so it's better for them not to act as spoilers unless they want to get HA/Amal more seats.

      It would be 7:4 in favor of HA/Amal alliance.


    • Northern Christian District(10 seats).

      - FPM/LF alliance, probably only FPM candidate in Batroun.

      - Marada/SSNP/Harb alliance.

      - Possible other lists.

      It would be 6:4 or 7:3 for the Christian duo, 5/6 seats for LF, 1 for FPM, 1/2 Marada, 1 Harb, 1 SSNP.
    Ok I'm lazy to continue...

    However, it's most likely to see new groups in the Parliament like Rifi Block and Civil Movement and the Sunni Opposition.
    Also there will be Waem Wahab group of 2-3 MPs in Alley-Chouf. Who knows how would it end up.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #4
    If Beirut 1 is 9 seats and LF can grab 4 and the Northern districts LF can grab 5/10 these two districts would be more than their MPs now.
    Which would mean that the LF could get alone 20 MPs all over Lebanon.
     

    hakim117

    Well-Known Member
    #5
    If Beirut 1 is 9 seats and LF can grab 4 and the Northern districts LF can grab 5/10 these two districts would be more than their MPs now.
    Which would mean that the LF could get alone 20 MPs all over Lebanon.
    It's very unlikely if not impossible for LF to obtain 20MP. I guess 15 is more like it.
    5 in the North
    1 Jbeil/Kesserwen
    1 maten
    1 baabda
    2 chouf aley
    2 beirut
    2 zahle
    1 baalbek

    But its too early guys to know exactly what to expect. This is a very preliminary approximation.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #6
    It's very unlikely if not impossible for LF to obtain 20MP. I guess 15 is more like it.
    5 in the North
    1 Jbeil/Kesserwen
    1 maten
    1 baabda
    2 chouf aley
    2 beirut
    2 zahle
    1 baalbek

    But its too early guys to know exactly what to expect. This is a very preliminary approximation.
    Akkar?
    Jezzine?
    Zahrani?
    Tripoli?
     
    #8
    Its funny how most lousy FPMers here bet on FPM getting along with "civic movement" votes in south lebanon and other shia majority areas ! Youre basically taking away from Hezbollah ? Ok but would hezbollah in turn give you anything in baalbeck/hermel for instance ? In some areas, FPM needs hezbollah to get the threshold. And if not they need a christian alliance which if fails in getting 70% of christian votes will probably end up not qualifying or ends up a fight in preferential between LF/FPM.
    A year from now ( if the elections happen and they dont extend again), your calculations will be so different you will laugh at yourself.
     
    #9
    Its funny how most lousy FPMers here bet on FPM getting along with "civic movement" votes in south lebanon and other shia majority areas ! Youre basically taking away from Hezbollah ? Ok but would hezbollah in turn give you anything in baalbeck/hermel for instance ? In some areas, FPM needs hezbollah to get the threshold. And if not they need a christian alliance which if fails in getting 70% of christian votes will probably end up not qualifying or ends up a fight in preferential between LF/FPM.
    A year from now ( if the elections happen and they dont extend again), your calculations will be so different you will laugh at yourself.
    There is no way the civic movement is going to ally itself with FPM or LF, especially in the South and Baalabak-Hermel. Also the illusion that most of the sects will vote to it's majority-parties in other sect-majority district is wrong. There is no safe seat or district in this law.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #11
    Any Numbers, Predictions?

    From the way talking, Kataeb - Junblatt seem biggest losers.Their seats will go to LF.
    What I predict is that Kataeb to get the following.

    1-2 Metn
    1 Zahle
    1 in Aley

    WJ to get
    2 Aley
    1 Baabda
    2 Chouf
    1 West Bekaa
    FM will leave one in Beirut for WJ.
     
    #15
    علمت "الديار" ان الساعات القليلة الماضية شهدت نقاشات جدية داخلالتيار الوطني الحرحول النتائج المتوقعة منقانون الانتخابات الجديد، بعد ان اظهرت دراسة جديدة ان ما حكي عن نيل التيار 24 نائبا والطاشناق نائبين لتصبح الكتلة 26 نائبا امر غير واقعي في المجلس النيابي الجديد، وما جرى عرضه خلال لقاء داخلي اظهر ان "التيار" لن يتمكن من الحصول على اكثر من عشرين نائبا مع الطاشناق وذلك اذا ما انضم اليهم النائب الشيعي في جبيل.

    وقد جاء في النتائج ان التيار سيفوز بنائبين في الشوف وعاليه، ونائب في بعبدا، و3 في المتن، ونائب للطاشناق،3 في كسروان جبيل، ونائب شيعي، نائب عن مقعد جزين، وواحد في البقاع، واثنان في الشمال، في بيروت الاولى نائب واثنان للطاشناق، وفي زحلة نائب واحد، وفي البقاع الغربي مقعد لنائب رئيس مجلس النواب السابق ايلي الفرزلي.
    http://www.elnashra.com/news/show/1111529/الديار-نقاشات-جدية-داخل-التيار-حول-النتائج-المتوقع
     
    #17
    علمت "الديار" ان الساعات القليلة الماضية شهدت نقاشات جدية داخلالتيار الوطني الحرحول النتائج المتوقعة منقانون الانتخابات الجديد، بعد ان اظهرت دراسة جديدة ان ما حكي عن نيل التيار 24 نائبا والطاشناق نائبين لتصبح الكتلة 26 نائبا امر غير واقعي في المجلس النيابي الجديد، وما جرى عرضه خلال لقاء داخلي اظهر ان "التيار" لن يتمكن من الحصول على اكثر من عشرين نائبا مع الطاشناق وذلك اذا ما انضم اليهم النائب الشيعي في جبيل.

    وقد جاء في النتائج ان التيار سيفوز بنائبين في الشوف وعاليه، ونائب في بعبدا، و3 في المتن، ونائب للطاشناق،3 في كسروان جبيل، ونائب شيعي، نائب عن مقعد جزين، وواحد في البقاع، واثنان في الشمال، في بيروت الاولى نائب واثنان للطاشناق، وفي زحلة نائب واحد، وفي البقاع الغربي مقعد لنائب رئيس مجلس النواب السابق ايلي الفرزلي.
    http://www.elnashra.com/news/show/1111529/الديار-نقاشات-جدية-داخل-التيار-حول-النتائج-المتوقع
    The tafdeeli in a place like Maten would become a game. A difference of thousand or hundreds of votes could be the difference, but even more, muslim votes for instance whether sunnis/shias druze make up 12000 registered voters potentially 7,000 votes that has minimal effect on the percentage each list gets, but could decide who makes it from each list. Ya3neh even if FPM made a list of their own with no alliances and shia wanted to vote for them, the shia wouldnt add anything to FPM's percentage but could influence who makes it amongst them.
     

    Mighty Goat

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    #18
    Future movement is up in the air. it risks losing up to half its block size, and will give rise to ashraf rifi in addition to some extremist candidates.
    An analysis of the two new political parties that are playing at grassroots recruitment, one can easily spot these names from public Sunnis of Beirut and Tripoli that were essentially supporters of Future Movement. If these two groups manage to gather momentum in these two areas they will certainly take seats from Future Movement.

    The voter profile of this group is secular Sunnis supported by Beiruti Christians.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #20
    Hariri is going to have a hard time. This election will be make or break for him. There is not one district he can claim he can win outright in.
     

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