Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections 2018 analysis and discussions.

gramsci

gramsci

Legendary Member
Kamal Jumblatt e il sogno laico di un asceta

Interesting article i was reading about kamal junblat and druse community..

Ironically talking , from ur descrition , they look like the mountain clan in game of thrones.. Shaga should be walid junblat ( as tyrion said : shaga love axes) since they practice cutting penis sport lol

 
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  • N

    new hope

    Member
    if FPM and LF had a total of 35 mp or so - and if they knew how to work together in the future - I think they will have the upper hand in the state and no one can stand in front of them. fm will follow jumblat will follow even the independent christian mp will follow them and can build a good start for the regime

    as for the moujtama3 madani to whom i voted - should remain a pressure on them to do even better a tool of control to let them know nothing is given for granted

    i m happy so far no clashes have been reported in the christian areas - and hope it will be spread to sunni shia druz area in the future
     
    Dark Angel

    Dark Angel

    Legendary Member
    if FPM and LF had a total of 35 mp or so - and if they knew how to work together in the future - I think they will have the upper hand in the state and no one can stand in front of them. fm will follow jumblat will follow even the independent christian mp will follow them and can build a good start for the regime

    as for the moujtama3 madani to whom i voted - should remain a pressure on them to do even better a tool of control to let them know nothing is given for granted

    i m happy so far no clashes have been reported in the christian areas - and hope it will be spread to sunni shia druz area in the future
    metl el 3am yel3ab beit byout..
     
    Dark Angel

    Dark Angel

    Legendary Member
    Unless you prefer destructive strategy as usual
    unfortunately, or fortunately, neither you nor myself put the actual strategies. so these things remain under the banner of wishful thinking. reality will not be as rosy as you are painting it.

    this is the reality though, if FPM ends up with a strong block, then yes, the LF and others will cooperate with it. otherwise the LF will be part of a larger front against the president and his block.
     
    F

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    the koullouna watani LIE

    صوتي لأي بديل؟

    مروان معلوف

    بعد يومين يتوجه اللبنانيون الى صناديق الاقتراع للانتخاب بعدما حُرموا من هذا الحق بسبب التمديد ثلاث مرات متتالية.
    خلال فترة التمديد، ونظراً لإنعدام الديناميكية السياسية والطرق الديمقراطية الطبيعية لممارسة حقنا بالمحاسبة عبر الانتخابات، توجهنا الى محاربة الآداء السياسي، بدايةً عبر التحركات المناهضة للتمديد ومن ثم لجأنا إلى التحركات المطالبة بمحاربة الفساد وبناء الدولة.
    استطاع الحراك خلال فترة وجيزة إعادة الأمل للبنانيين بالمشاركة بالحياة السياسية واسترجاع الحقوق المهدورة للمواطن اللبناني، لأول مرة منذ سنوات تحرك اللبنانيون بعيداً عن الطوائف والاحزاب.
    مع تتطور الحراك بات من الواضح ضرورة خلق بديل سياسي جدي لتغيير الواقع السياسي.
    وهنا يكمن السؤال الاساسي الذي يجب الاجابة عليه في ٦ ايار، اي بديل سياسي نطمح اليه؟ وما هي أسس لهكذا بديل؟
    الكثير من الأشخاص طرحوا عليّ السؤال التالي: لماذا رفضت الانضمام الى لائحة كلنا وطني بدائرة الشمال الثالثة؟ ولمن ستصوت؟


    اولاً، وقبل الغوص بالاجابة على تلك الاسئلة، يجب توضيح بعض النقاط:

    ١- هناك الكثير من الناس سيلعبون دور "المطاوع" بعدما أنشر هذا المنشور، كما أنهم سيعتبرون انه لم يكن يتوجب علينا أن نحاسب ما يُسمى بالمجتمع المدني على قاعدة أن هذه المرحلة يجب تصويب السهام على الاحزاب الحاكمة فقط. أما ردي على "مطاوعي" المجتمع المدني ان سبب وصولنا إلى هذا الوضع هو عدم محاسبة كل من أخطأ خلال كل مرحلة الحراك إلى اليوم، فقد كنّا نعمل وفق منطق "بسيطة غلطنا وخلينا نكمل".

    2- لست من حاملي نظرية "ما بهم اي بديل بس مهم نغيير الأحزاب الحاكمة والوجوه الراسخة" لأن المشكلة لا تكمن في الوجوه اذا كانت جديدة او قديمة بل بالآداء. الوجوه الجديدة اثبتت بمراحل سابقة انها قد تكون اسوأ من القديمة وتؤدي الى احباط مضاعف لدى الراغبين بالتغيير، وتجربة وزير تسلّم وزارة الداخلية منذ عدة سنوات اثبت عدم صوابية هذه النظرية إذ إننا لم نرى أي تغيير جوهري في الوزارة المذكورة.

    3- كما أنني لست مع النظرية القائلة بأنه يتوجب على المجتمع المدني ان يتوحد لكي يكون له حظوظ االفوز. بدايةً لا وجود لشيء اسمه مجتمع مدني عند الحديث عن خوض المعترك السياسي وبالأخص الانتخابات النيابية. على هذا الأساس، رفضت تسمية مجتمع مدني من الأيام الأولى للتحركات المناهضة للتمديد، كما لو كانت الاحزاب مجتمعات عسكرية. ما يُسمى مجتمع مدني ليس كتلة منظمة وموحدة في الرؤية والطروحات، والدليل على ذلك ان ضمن هذا المجتمع المدني من يعتبر ان بشير الجميل بطل وآخر يعتبر ان الشرتوني بطل. هناك من يعتبر ان الخصخصة هي الحل ومن يعتبر ان الخصخة هي الشر الاعظم. لذا من عمل على توحيد الأضداد و خضع لابتزاز مطلب التوحيد واستجاب له يبدو أنه فعل ذلك لان الممولين المحتملين للانتخابات كانوا قد فرضوا عليه هكذا خيار أو لأن الاولية للـ "ماركيتينغ" من أجل تحفيز الناس للتصويت...

    بعد هذه التوضيحات، لماذا رفضت الانضمام للائحة كلنا وطني في دائرة الشمال الثالثة؟ ولماذا لن أصوت للائحة كلنا وطني في زحلة؟ الجواب بسيط جداً:
    1- كلنا وطني فشلت ببناء خطاب سياسي واضح، لقد وضعوا كل النقاط الخلافية من سلاح حزب الله، للخطة الاقتصادية، وغيرها الكثير من الامور السياسية المفصلية جانباً لتفادي الخلافات. ولذا اصبح شعار هذه اللوائح مرتكز على ان الإنجاز يكمن فقط بترشيح ٦٦ مرشح بـ٩ دوائر. كما لو أن هذا العمل هو الإنجاز الذي ينتظره اللبنانيين والمتمثل بعدد المرشحين او عدد الدوائر.
    وبما انه الانجاز هو كمي بعدد الدوائر والمرشحين، دعونا نرى من هم هؤلاء المرشحين التغييرين؟


    2- أصبحوا التغيريين هم حزب سبعة، بما أن كلنا وطني، بكل بساطة، سلمت على طبق من فضة كل العمل التراكمي الذي عملنا عليه لحزب سبعة، الذي لديه أكثر من 20 مرشح بالدوائر التسعة. حزب جديد ثمة علامات استفهام على تمويله وعلى برنامجه السياسي واستعماله المال كباقي الاحزاب الحاكمة؟ حتى الساعة لم نتعرف على مصادر تمويله! كما أنهم لم يعرفونا على رجال الأعمال الذين يمولون هذا الحزب. هيذا الحزب الذي رشح اعلامية انسحبت من الانتخابات من بيت الوسط واهدت انسحابها الى سعد الحريري، حزب سياسي يضم خبراء اقتصاديين كانوا من المطبلين سابقاً للسياسات الاقتصادية للحكومات المتعاقبة، حزب سياسي مبني على كذبة اعلامية والكترونية، حزب سياسي جذب المرشحين بوعود كاذبة عن تمويل حملاتهم الإنتخابية. والاهم ان كلنا وطني سلموا لهذا الحزب (يلي اصاب احد الصحافيين بتسميته بـ"حزب ستديو الفن") المراكز الأوفر حظاً للخرق بالدوائر. بمواجهة غياب الخطاب، ثمة شباب وشابات لم يقبلوا أن يساوموا مع حزب سبعة والراكبين على موجة الحراك، كلائحة مدنية في الشوف وعاليه (صوتي كان اكيد راح الها لو بصوّت بالشوف وعاليه).

    3- بالاضافة إلى ما تقدم، هل ما يمثلنا كتغييريين لوائح تضم:
    •وزراء سابقين خلال الاحتلال السوري كالوزير يوسف سلامه في كسروان؟
    •مرشحين عونيين سابقيين، ليس واضحاً لماذا خرجوا من التيار طالما أنهم مع العهد (بغض النظر عن الاشخاص)
    •مرشحين من حزب الخضر الذي جاءت رئيسته ايام الحراك مع مخابرات الجيش لتهديدنا؟
    •مرشحين كانوا اساس للاستابلشمنت لسنين كبولا يعقوبيان وغادة عيد؟
    •مرشح مخضرم بالسياسة كان يُشاجر بسبب "تسمية الشخص الذي سيظهر على التفاز لقراءة البيان"؟ المرشح نفسه كان يعتبر ان حزب سبعة خطر كبير ومن ثم تحالف معه!
    •مرشحين من الحزب الشيوعي بدائرة وبدائرة أخرى يشكل الحزب الشيوعي لائحة مضادة؟
    بعد هذه الجردة لا يبقى من نغمة ٦٦ مرشح بـ٩ دوائر الا 5 الى 6 مرشحين يستحقون المتابعة، ولكن أي مشروع سياسي يخدمون؟ تحديد الجهة التي سأمنحها صوتي لا يرتكز على معيار مبني فقط على الشخص ونزاهته، إذ إن الاهم هو الخطاب والمشروع السياسي الذي يخدمه هذا المرشح (لأن في كتير من مرشحي الاحزاب نضاف وناجحين بمجالاتهم).
    بالعودة الى اشكالية الخطاب للوائح كلنا وطني، هل التغير الذي نطمح إليه هو التغير الذي اعتبر أن خصوصية طرابلس تقتضي تكفير العلمانيين وشيطنة الزواج المدني (بيان صادر عن مرشح حزب سبعة في طرابلس) واعتبر ان خصوصية الاشرفية تقضي بأن يرفع مرشح عوني سابق شعار شعب - جيش – مقاومة؟

    بمعنى أوضح، كأن ما يرسم على أنه تغيير يقول لنا أن الخلاف مع الطبقة السياسية ليس مبنياً على إختلاف سياسي، وإنما على آليات التطبيق، وهذا ما سوف يقدمه لنا (البديل ما غيرو) بطريقة أفضل!
    من الواضح أن كلنا وطني استعملت نفس النهج الراسخ لبناء تحالفتها وخطابها، كما كان معهود في السابق.
    لجميع هذه الأسباب رفضت الإنضمام الى لوائح كلنا وطني في الشمال، والتحدي يكمن في 7 أيار من خلال المضي باتجاه بناء البديل الجدي الذي لم ولن يساوم على مبادئ الجمهورية.



    2018 -أيار -04
    I am tagging you in case you missed the article @Placebo @The Jade @manifesto @mrsrx
     
    The Jade

    The Jade

    Legendary Member
    I am tagging you in case you missed the article @Placebo @The Jade @manifesto @mrsrx
    Didn't miss it, just thought that not every article written with bad intentions and based on tante josiane's stories she overheard while doing her nail nails should be answered.

    But since I'm here, that's an interview that Abs did after the video that someone edited and posted online about Hezb's weapons: (بالفيديو) زياد عبس: التغيير آت في بيروت الاولى بـ 6 ايار

    You can start at 17:40 for the weapons issue.

    Other allegations have also been answered in the media, but that this "journalist" refused to acknowledge.

    If you have specific questions, I'll be happy to answer them
     
    Isabella

    Isabella

    The Queen Of "Bazella"
    Orange Room Supporter
    I am tagging you in case you missed the article @Placebo @The Jade @manifesto @mrsrx
    To
    T

    Wow Marwan maalouf! Haven't heard of him since the protests but I remember for a period in time he was everywhere and very well spoken!

    I would not have voted for koullouna watani in Zahle either, I stated that had I been able to vote my vote would have gone to Salim aoun and fpm despite me not being a supporter for so many reasons but mainly because he is literally the best candidate running in Zahle, and I would go so far as to say the only honest one!

    Also I agree that hezeb sabaa is questionable af! If I'm hoping for anyone to win from koullouna watani lists it would be charbel nahas, the rest are just either bland or questionable af! So I agree with his article even though I've been trying not to get too involved in Lebanese politics since the protests happened because that's when I realised there will be no meaningful change coming, and Lebanese people are hopeless...

    However, reading election threads on the forum last night has brought back feelings of absolute disgust! Fpmer's main focus in those threads has been harrassing the people who stated they have voted for koullouna watani, people who for the most part used to be fpm supporters! I talked about this briefly with seaab last night, but what you guys (by you guys I mean fpmers) still don't get is that anyone who chooses a vote for koullouna watani is voting for change, change that you were supposed to represent, change you were given 10+ years to bring... Instead you attack and harrass everyone who still hopes change could come! Why? Because their vote would have gone to your lists? No it wouldn't have! They would have stayed home and not voted! People have bet on the unknown by placing their hopes and faiths in fpm previously, it's okay for them to be disappointed and attempt to place another bet now!

    To make a long story short, koullouna watani may be a "lie" but it's a lie people choose to believe because the suggested alternative is 10 years of lies! Ye3ne no mesh enno ma fi better option, fpm wants to present itself as the best among the worst, well they got dethroned by koullouna watani lol! and just like Marwan maalouf who was capable of self evaluation and criticism, everyone who has done the same for fpm is no longer an fpmer or a supporter for that matter...
     
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    Abotareq93

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    غرفة العمليات المركزية الخاصة بالانتخابات في وزارة الداخلية: وصول 85% حتّى الساعة من صناديق الاقتراع إلى المراكز الخاصّة بها
     
    rae27

    rae27

    Active Member
    To
    T

    Wow Marwan maalouf! Haven't heard of him since the protests but I remember for a period in time he was everywhere and very well spoken!

    I would not have voted for koullouna watani in Zahle either, I stated that had I been able to vote my vote would have gone to Salim aoun and fpm despite me not being a supporter for so many reasons but mainly because he is literally the best candidate running in Zahle, and I would go so far as to say the only honest one!

    Also I agree that hezeb sabaa is questionable af! If I'm hoping for anyone to win from koullouna watani lists it would be charbel nahas, the rest are just either bland or questionable af! So I agree with his article even though I've been trying not to get too involved in Lebanese politics since the protests happened because that's when I realised there will be no meaningful change coming, and Lebanese people are hopeless...

    However, reading election threads on the forum last night has brought back feelings of absolute disgust! Fpmer's main focus in those threads has been harrassing the people who stated they have voted for koullouna watani, people who for the most part used to be fpm supporters! I talked about this briefly with seaab last night, but what you guys (by you guys I mean fpmers) still don't get is that anyone who chooses a vote for koullouna watani is voting for change, change that you were supposed to represent, change you were given 10+ years to bring... Instead you attack and harrass everyone who still hopes change could come! Why? Because their vote would have gone to your lists? No it wouldn't have! They would have stayed home and not voted! People have bet on the unknown by placing their hopes and faiths in fpm previously, it's okay for them to be disappointed and attempt to place another bet now!

    To make a long story short, koullouna watani may be a "lie" but it's a lie people choose to believe because the suggested alternative is 10 years of lies! Ye3ne no mesh enno ma fi better option, fpm wants to present itself as the best among the worst, well they got dethroned by koullouna watani lol! and just like Marwan maalouf who was capable of self evaluation and criticism, everyone who has done the same for fpm is no longer an fpmer or a supporter for that matter...
    I’m sure most koullouna watani candidates are full of good intentions and want to work hard. But I’m not sure they’re locally funded anymore, it’s very possible and probable they’re not, as they’re certain to be FPM’s biggest Achilles heel, and there’s no shortage of people working on making sure the latter fail either.

    What I do not accept, is this glossing over of facts. Yes 10 years have passed and it’s a long time but you cannot just decide it’s FPM’s fault, that the people have let them try and and they in turn have failed.
    Vote for whoever you want but do so knowing that every other party at a certain point of time in the last 10 years has worked on making sure FPM’s coalition fails, has worked towards discrediting their right to represent, has stayed silent while FPM was the only one shouting, on and on and on ....

    In a parallel universe, probably fpm baroud koullouna watani and all the likes would have been represented under one umbrella, because really theres absolutely nothing that differentiates them from one another. They all want a forward thinking modern secular government without corruption.

    But now as it stands, today, FPM are the strongest bunch in the Christian community and yes your only hope to a solution to this country, whether you want to admit it or not.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Hayde awal marra there are true elections in the druze area chouf-aley. Let the best man win. There are 13 seats and I hope WJ doesnt get more than 5.
    FPM should get 2 in Chouf
    LF 1 in Chouf
    3/8 is a good result for the christians

    Aley nchalla 1 LF and 1 FPM and Arslen 3/5 also a good result. Fu-- WJ the snake. His block shouldnt be more than 8 in all of Lebanon.
     
    AtheistForJesus

    AtheistForJesus

    Well-Known Member
    I’m sure most koullouna watani candidates are full of good intentions and want to work hard. But I’m not sure they’re locally funded anymore, it’s very possible and probable they’re not, as they’re certain to be FPM’s biggest Achilles heel, and there’s no shortage of people working on making sure the latter fail either.

    What I do not accept, is this glossing over of facts. Yes 10 years have passed and it’s a long time but you cannot just decide it’s FPM’s fault, that the people have let them try and and they in turn have failed.
    Vote for whoever you want but do so knowing that every other party at a certain point of time in the last 10 years has worked on making sure FPM’s coalition fails, has worked towards discrediting their right to represent, has stayed silent while FPM was the only one shouting, on and on and on ....

    In a parallel universe, probably fpm baroud koullouna watani and all the likes would have been represented under one umbrella, because really theres absolutely nothing that differentiates them from one another. They all want a forward thinking modern secular government without corruption.

    But now as it stands, today, FPM are the strongest bunch in the Christian community and yes your only hope to a solution to this country, whether you want to admit it or not.

    What funding? I barley saw any billboard for Charbel Nahas or other Kulluna Watani candidates. They are dirt poor.

    Paula is the exception. She's rich. But I don't think any foreign country benefits from funding Sab3a. It's mostly donations.
     
    Iron Maiden

    Iron Maiden

    Paragon of Bacon
    Staff member
    What funding? I barley saw any billboard for Charbel Nahas or other Kulluna Watani candidates. They are dirt poor.

    Paula is the exception. She's rich. But I don't think any foreign country benefits from funding Sab3a. It's mostly donations.
    Sab3a are funded by businessmen and benefactors, but never revealed who they were.

    Also billboards are not the most expensive thing, tv appearences are the biggest spending point.

    Also nahas keeps haunting my fb page thru fb ads asking for donations, he's worse than the founder of wikipedia..
     
    rae27

    rae27

    Active Member
    What funding? I barley saw any billboard for Charbel Nahas or other Kulluna Watani candidates. They are dirt poor.

    Paula is the exception. She's rich. But I don't think any foreign country benefits from funding Sab3a. It's mostly donations.
    Three months ago maybe they were dirt poor that can’t even organize a proper event, but now there’s more ads of them on tv than any other party.
     
    AtheistForJesus

    AtheistForJesus

    Well-Known Member
    @Iron Maiden I think w're doomed.
    The Civil Community will win 2-3 seats in the best scenario. They will face opposition from Berri and other MPs, and will feel unable to pass any bills until they bite the bullet and ally with other parties.

    But they should resist this temptation and work hard in order to earn people's trust. Hopefully in 4 years (or was it 5?) people will feel more motivated to vote for them.

    They may be 2 or 3 MPs but they will be remembered as the politicians who opposed this and that decision.
     
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