Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Baabda district

Placebo

Placebo

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Somebody should teach the FpM electoral machine some Math, especially in Baabda.

And for the delusional people thinking that FPM will do better than 2009 because of the ‘3ahed’, somebody should slap you sideways so you wake up.
 
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    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    Somebody should teach the FpM electoral machine some Math, especially in Baabda.

    And for the delusional people thinking that FPM will do better than 2009 because of the ‘3ahed’, somebody should slap you sideways so you wake up.
    I'm so worried about what we have done in Baabda. If we want to maximise our chances of electing 2 MPs and ally with HA/Amal, we should have nominated 2 Maronite candidates instead of 3. Otherwise, find a different ally who will not compete with us for the 3rd seat on the list.
     
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    Lemon

    Well-Known Member
    I'm so worried about what we have done in Baabda. If we want to maximise our chances of electing 2 MPs and ally with HA/Amal, we should have nominated 2 Maronite candidates instead of 3. Otherwise, find a different ally who will not compete with us for the 3rd seat on the list.
    HA/Amal threatens the third seat even if FPM had 2 maronite candidates. Only good solution is not to ally with anyone whom you wouldn't want to win with you.
     
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    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    HA/Amal threatens the third seat even if FPM had 2 maronite candidates. Only good solution is not to ally with anyone whom you wouldn't want to win with you.
    I understand that we have more votes than HA/Amal in Baabda, meaning we have a better chance of winning two than they do. This chance is reduced when we run three candidates.
     
    vegojimbo

    vegojimbo

    Legendary Member
    I'm so worried about what we have done in Baabda. If we want to maximise our chances of electing 2 MPs and ally with HA/Amal, we should have nominated 2 Maronite candidates instead of 3. Otherwise, find a different ally who will not compete with us for the 3rd seat on the list.
    I believe it was a tactic to prevent Amal from including Joe Hobeika into the list. It is well known Berri wanted Hobeika and was propping him. Had FPM only fielded 2 candidates, FPM would be in a weak position to block Hobeika from entering the list. Amal would instruct many of its voters to put Hobeika as tafdili since Amal/Ha winning the shiite seats is ta7sil 7asel. And since FPM's list can realistically win only 2 maronite seats in Baabda, it would seriously undermine its chances of securing both seats, and Hobeika (and by extension Berri) would have high chances of grabbing a seat leaving FPM with only 1 seat.

    So I don't think the decision to nominate 3 FPM candidates is as foolish as it seems.
     
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    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    I believe it was a tactic to prevent Amal from including Joe Hobeika into the list. It is well known Berri wanted Hobeika and was propping him. Had FPM only fielded 2 candidates, FPM would be in a weak position to block Hobeika from entering the list. Amal would instruct many of its voters to put Hobeika as tafdili since Amal/Ha winning the shiite seats is ta7sil 7asel. And since FPM's list can realistically win only 2 maronite seats in Baabda, it would seriously undermine its chances of securing both seats, and Hobeika (and by extension Berri) would have high chances of grabbing a seat leaving FPM with only 1 seat.

    So I don't think the decision to nominate 3 FPM candidates is as foolish as it seems.
    I'm not convinced.

    1. Are you saying that Amal was willing to sacrifice a Shiite seat in order to get Hobeika elected? Amal/HA/Hobeika can't possibly get 3 seats between them, so it must be that they were willing to sacrifice a Shiite seat.

    2. Why run with Amal/HA in the first place?

    3. Now that Hobeika is not on the list, can we just drop one of our candidates? If it's too late, can't he announce that he is no longer interested so that our votes can be divided by two and not be three?
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    With 3 maronite candidates the electoral machine of FPM should choose only between 2 as the third will go to LF. Why let the people fight over 3 candidates and maybe losing 2 in the process to an LFer and another maronite?
     
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    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    I believe it was a tactic to prevent Amal from including Joe Hobeika into the list. It is well known Berri wanted Hobeika and was propping him. Had FPM only fielded 2 candidates, FPM would be in a weak position to block Hobeika from entering the list. Amal would instruct many of its voters to put Hobeika as tafdili since Amal/Ha winning the shiite seats is ta7sil 7asel. And since FPM's list can realistically win only 2 maronite seats in Baabda, it would seriously undermine its chances of securing both seats, and Hobeika (and by extension Berri) would have high chances of grabbing a seat leaving FPM with only 1 seat.

    So I don't think the decision to nominate 3 FPM candidates is as foolish as it seems.
    I'm not convinced.

    1. Are you saying that Amal was willing to sacrifice a Shiite seat in order to get Hobeika elected? Amal/HA/Hobeika can't possibly get 3 seats between them, so it must be that they were willing to sacrifice a Shiite seat.

    2. Why run with Amal/HA in the first place?

    3. Now that Hobeika is not on the list, can we just drop one of our candidates? If it's too late, can't he announce that he is no longer interested so that our votes can be divided by two and not be three?
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    I'm not convinced.

    1. Are you saying that Amal was willing to sacrifice a Shiite seat in order to get Hobeika elected? Amal/HA/Hobeika can't possibly get 3 seats between them, so it must be that they were willing to sacrifice a Shiite seat.

    2. Why run with Amal/HA in the first place?

    3. Now that Hobeika is not on the list, can we just drop one of our candidates? If it's too late, can't he announce that he is no longer interested so that our votes can be divided by two and not be three?
    The shia duo cannot win the 2 shias. I think the LF and WJ gang will win the shia seat also. Who is their shia candidate??
     
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    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    The shia duo cannot win the 2 shias. I think the LF and WJ gang will win the shia seat also. Who is their shia candidate??
    If our list wins three seats, and the Shiite duo have two of their candidates ahead of our second (because we are dividing our votes into three), they they will win both Shiite seats. Perhaps they weren't able to win them alone without allying with FPM. By allying with them we could be gifting them one of our seats. I'm very bothered by this.
     
    vegojimbo

    vegojimbo

    Legendary Member
    I'm not convinced.

    1. Are you saying that Amal was willing to sacrifice a Shiite seat in order to get Hobeika elected? Amal/HA/Hobeika can't possibly get 3 seats between them, so it must be that they were willing to sacrifice a Shiite seat.

    2. Why run with Amal/HA in the first place?

    3. Now that Hobeika is not on the list, can we just drop one of our candidates? If it's too late, can't he announce that he is no longer interested so that our votes can be divided by two and not be three?
    1- I think they may sarifice a shiite seat (at least Amal might) in order to get a christian one and at the same time deal a blow to FPM by making it lose a maronite seat and have it only get 1 MP elected in Baabda.
    2- no idea. It's likely FPM's electoral machine found FPM has less than 2 hassel in Baabda on its own, and wanted to maximize its chances of winning the second seat.
    3- doesn't work that way. Even if a candidate withdraws now, his name will still appear on the ballots and he will still have a chance of being elected. After getting elected, he can resign.
     
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    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    1- I think they may sarifice a shiite seat (at least Amal) in order to get a christian one and at the same time deal a blow to FPM by making it lose a maronite seat and have it only get 1 MP elected in Baabda.
    2- no idea
    3- doesn't work that way. Even if a candidate withdraws now, his name will still appear on the ballots and he will still have a chance of being elected. After getting elected, he can resign.
    Fair enough. I still think if one announces his intention for his supporters to vote for the other two candidates, and if this is backed up centrally by the FPM makana, then that candidate will only receive a small number of votes (maybe a couple of hundred) which hopefully won't impact the outcome.
     
    vegojimbo

    vegojimbo

    Legendary Member
    Fair enough. I still think if one announces his intention for his supporters to vote for the other two candidates, and if this is backed up centrally by the FPM makana, then that candidate will only receive a small number of votes (maybe a couple of hundred) which hopefully won't impact the outcome.
    you have a point, but this is politics not bay byout. You can't just announce a candidate then have him withdraw after the deadline. That can only show 2 things: either you fielded the candidate to block another potential candidate from being nominated or your electoral machine is seriouly amateurish (couldn't they have known 3 candidates would hurt their chances more than 2, before the time to choose the list nominations is over?) I don't think it will sit well with HA that FPM plays such a game.
     
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    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    you have a point, but this is politics not bay byout. You can't just announce a candidate then have him withdraw after the deadline. That can only show 2 things: either you fielded the candidate to block another potential candidate from being nominated or your electoral machine is seriouly amateurish (couldn't they have known 3 candidates would hurt their chances more than 2, before the time to choose the list nominations is over?) I don't think it will sit well with HA that FPM plays such a game.
    Exactly, this politics. Who cares what HA think when their ally has been trying to screw us over for decades? And when they used their puppets on the constitutional council to extend the parliamentary term? You make it sound like as if it was a master stroke to block Hobeika when in actual fact we are doing all we can to gift them one of our seats. How hard would it have been to say ‘no deal’? I can’t see how we haven’t stuffed up Baabda and I hope I’m wrong. We will know in a few weeks.
     
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    La Blague

    Well-Known Member
    Exactly, this politics. Who cares what HA think when their ally has been trying to screw us over for decades? And when they used their puppets on the constitutional council to extend the parliamentary term? You make it sound like as if it was a master stroke to block Hobeika when in actual fact we are doing all we can to gift them one of our seats. How hard would it have been to say ‘no deal’? I can’t see how we haven’t stuffed up Baabda and I hope I’m wrong. We will know in a few weeks.
    There could be a deal with HA to give some of their surplus tafdili to either Hekmat or Nagi
    It would explain the alliance and the fielding of 3 candidates
     
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    Sherlock

    New Member
    FPM are optimistic that we are close to getting two deputies, the reason for the alliance (perhaps) because the third seat may be possible in case of low electoral quotient or dispersion of competing lists. It is really difficult to achieve but only theoretical.
     
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    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    There could be a deal with HA to give some of their surplus tafdili to either Hekmat or Nagi
    It would explain the alliance and the fielding of 3 candidates
    And Amal would be okay with that? So HA would screw over Amal in order to elect FPM's second?
     
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    unitedlb

    Well-Known Member
    FPM are optimistic that we are close to getting two deputies, the reason for the alliance (perhaps) because the third seat may be possible in case of low electoral quotient or dispersion of competing lists. It is really difficult to achieve but only theoretical.
    I so hope you are right. I have been worried about Baabda for a few months now.
     
    Lebnaouneh

    Lebnaouneh

    Well-Known Member
    Apparently the reason for the 3 nominations is that Hikmat Dib brings a lot of votes from Hadath and FPM cannot guarantee them if he is not a candidate, however Alain Aoun and Naji Gharios came before him in the party by-elections for candidates so they kept them and added Hikmat as the 3rd
     
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