Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Baabda district

Placebo

Placebo

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Lebnaouneh said:
Apparently the reason for the 3 nominations is that Hikmat Dib brings a lot of votes from Hadath and FPM cannot guarantee them if he is not a candidate, however Alain Aoun and Naji Gharios came before him in the party by-elections for candidates so they kept them and added Hikmat as the 3rd
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It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.
 
L

Lemon

Well-Known Member
Placebo said:
It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.
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FPM doesn't have to distribute the votes evenly between the three.
 
Placebo

Placebo

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Lemon said:
FPM doesn't have to distribute the votes evenly between the three.
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Math :

If Ha’s candidates each get 10k
Whereas FPM candidates get as follows :
Alain aoun :11k
Gharios: 7k
Hikmat dib : 5k

And the list ends up winning 3 (which is the expected result)
Then 2 HA will make it; but only 1 FPM

If FPM had 2 candidates ans managed to give each around 11k, the probability of winning 2 would have been much higher.
 
F

freelebanonn

Legendary Member
Placebo said:
It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.
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100% they should have ran alone with 2 candidates bil ksour el akbar they would have secured both.
 
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lebanese1

Legendary Member
Placebo said:
Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.
Click to expand...

they are very likely to get 4 since their opponents are not united.
Based on 2009:
- FPM and allies = 45 000
- Opponents = 37 000

If Opponents are split to 2 lists (32 000 + 5 000), [45 000 / (45 000 + 32 000)] x 6 = 3.51 seat vs 2.49 for the other list.
 
Thinker

Thinker

Active Member
Placebo said:
It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.
Click to expand...
HA has only one candidate and the other is Amal, so maybe each party in that district will work for his own candidate only. Ali Amar will get much more tafdili than Amal candidate in da7ye. FPM can in that case win two maronites if the share of the alliance was 3 seats.
 
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lebanese1

Legendary Member
لوحظ ان الخلاف بين حركة امل والتيار الوطني الحر انعكس خلافات على العمل الانتخابي في بعبدا حيث حصل اشكال كلامي خلال اعلان اللائحة رسميا امام الجميع، ومن بعدها حصل انقسام كبير ادى الى عدم تعاون الماكينات الانتخابية، وبات كل فريق يعمل لمرشحيه فقط.
 
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freelebanonn

Legendary Member
According to people from baabda makana, things are not looking great in the district and it seems 75% of the expats are against FPM.
 
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wdawle1

Member
geagea speaking on mtv, he saying right now they are with PSP 2.1 - 2.2 and if Kataeb were with them on list..kataeb would have won 3rd seat.
 
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freelebanonn

Legendary Member
wdawle1 said:
geagea speaking on mtv, he saying right now they are with PSP 2.1 - 2.2 and if Kataeb were with them on list..kataeb would have won 3rd seat.
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I guess this is why FPM accepted the alliance with hizb in the district . At first they werent sure that kataeb and LF will be on different lists so the decision was to form a separate liste to secure 2 seats by kaser a3la but when things became obvious they changed their minds.
 
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