Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Baabda district

Placebo

Placebo

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Apparently the reason for the 3 nominations is that Hikmat Dib brings a lot of votes from Hadath and FPM cannot guarantee them if he is not a candidate, however Alain Aoun and Naji Gharios came before him in the party by-elections for candidates so they kept them and added Hikmat as the 3rd
It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.
 
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    Lemon

    Well-Known Member
    It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
    It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
    HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

    Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
    It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.
    FPM doesn't have to distribute the votes evenly between the three.
     
    Placebo

    Placebo

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    FPM doesn't have to distribute the votes evenly between the three.
    Math :

    If Ha’s candidates each get 10k
    Whereas FPM candidates get as follows :
    Alain aoun :11k
    Gharios: 7k
    Hikmat dib : 5k

    And the list ends up winning 3 (which is the expected result)
    Then 2 HA will make it; but only 1 FPM

    If FPM had 2 candidates ans managed to give each around 11k, the probability of winning 2 would have been much higher.
     
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    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
    It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
    HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

    Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
    It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.
    100% they should have ran alone with 2 candidates bil ksour el akbar they would have secured both.
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
    It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.
    they are very likely to get 4 since their opponents are not united.
    Based on 2009:
    - FPM and allies = 45 000
    - Opponents = 37 000

    If Opponents are split to 2 lists (32 000 + 5 000), [45 000 / (45 000 + 32 000)] x 6 = 3.51 seat vs 2.49 for the other list.
     
    Zouki

    Zouki

    Member
    It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
    It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
    HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

    Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
    It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.
    HA has only one candidate and the other is Amal, so maybe each party in that district will work for his own candidate only. Ali Amar will get much more tafdili than Amal candidate in da7ye. FPM can in that case win two maronites if the share of the alliance was 3 seats.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    It’s about ksourrr
    So whomever gets the highest ,gets the 4th or 3rd

    I still don’t get why gebran agreed to ally with Shia
    Stupid mistake imho
    Its because Gebran's a ***** and doesnt want to piss HA off idiot.
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    لوحظ ان الخلاف بين حركة امل والتيار الوطني الحر انعكس خلافات على العمل الانتخابي في بعبدا حيث حصل اشكال كلامي خلال اعلان اللائحة رسميا امام الجميع، ومن بعدها حصل انقسام كبير ادى الى عدم تعاون الماكينات الانتخابية، وبات كل فريق يعمل لمرشحيه فقط.
     
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    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    According to people from baabda makana, things are not looking great in the district and it seems 75% of the expats are against FPM.
     
    HannaTheCrusader

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    According to people from baabda makana, things are not looking great in the district and it seems 75% of the expats are against FPM.

    anotehr lie
    tayyar will easily gets 50% of any expat christian votes
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    According to people from baabda makana, things are not looking great in the district and it seems 75% of the expats are against FPM.
    I suppose they had this data before forming the list... and this is not different than 2009
     
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    wdawle1

    Member
    geagea speaking on mtv, he saying right now they are with PSP 2.1 - 2.2 and if Kataeb were with them on list..kataeb would have won 3rd seat.
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    geagea speaking on mtv, he saying right now they are with PSP 2.1 - 2.2 and if Kataeb were with them on list..kataeb would have won 3rd seat.
    this is true. that's the only reason why FPM is somehow safe on the same list with HA/Amal.
     
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    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    geagea speaking on mtv, he saying right now they are with PSP 2.1 - 2.2 and if Kataeb were with them on list..kataeb would have won 3rd seat.
    I guess this is why FPM accepted the alliance with hizb in the district . At first they werent sure that kataeb and LF will be on different lists so the decision was to form a separate liste to secure 2 seats by kaser a3la but when things became obvious they changed their minds.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Kataeb if allied the third seat???
    Ya3ne FPM la7ala ma3anda 7assel in Baabda???
     
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    new hope

    Member
    Kataeb if allied the third seat???
    Ya3ne FPM la7ala ma3anda 7assel in Baabda???
    fpm have 7assel and a bit more
    they were saying 1 psp 1 lf .. if kataeb an harar joined a third would be kataeb .. but it s just talks
     
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