Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Baabda district

[Placebo]

Apparently the reason for the 3 nominations is that Hikmat Dib brings a lot of votes from Hadath and FPM cannot guarantee them if he is not a candidate, however Alain Aoun and Naji Gharios came before him in the party by-elections for candidates so they kept them and added Hikmat as the 3rd

It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.

 

[Lemon]

It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.

FPM doesn't have to distribute the votes evenly between the three.

 

[Placebo]

FPM doesn't have to distribute the votes evenly between the three.

Math :

If Ha’s candidates each get 10k
Whereas FPM candidates get as follows :
Alain aoun :11k
Gharios: 7k
Hikmat dib : 5k

And the list ends up winning 3 (which is the expected result)
Then 2 HA will make it; but only 1 FPM

If FPM had 2 candidates ans managed to give each around 11k, the probability of winning 2 would have been much higher.

 

[freelebanonn]

It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.

100% they should have ran alone with 2 candidates bil ksour el akbar they would have secured both.

 

[HannaTheCrusader]

سباق بعبدا على الكسر الأكبر... عون وبو عاصي مرتاحان!
I hope that FPM wont regret the decision of allying with hizb in baabda instead of going solo.

It’s about ksourrr
So whomever gets the highest ,gets the 4th or 3rd

I still don’t get why gebran agreed to ally with Shia
Stupid mistake imho

 

[lebanese1]

Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.

they are very likely to get 4 since their opponents are not united.
Based on 2009:
- FPM and allies = 45 000
- Opponents = 37 000

If Opponents are split to 2 lists (32 000 + 5 000), [45 000 / (45 000 + 32 000)] x 6 = 3.51 seat vs 2.49 for the other list.

 

[Thinker]

It was a stupid mistake, which definitely will lead to FPM getting 1 out of 3, (in case the list ends up with 3)
It's simple Math. FPM has around 20k in that district (+/-) 2k. And so does HA.
HA will split their votes evenly between their 2 candidates, while FPM has to distribute it between 3. Which automatically kills the chance for the second FPMer to make it through.

Based on the results of 2009, the same alliance received the equivalent of ~3.2 Hassels. While the opposing List got 2.8.
It doesn't require a Genius mathematician to know the outcome of this. I don't know what the FPM electoral machine was smoking when they took this decision.

HA has only one candidate and the other is Amal, so maybe each party in that district will work for his own candidate only. Ali Amar will get much more tafdili than Amal candidate in da7ye. FPM can in that case win two maronites if the share of the alliance was 3 seats.

 

[!Aoune32]

It’s about ksourrr
So whomever gets the highest ,gets the 4th or 3rd

I still don’t get why gebran agreed to ally with Shia
Stupid mistake imho

Its because Gebran's a ***** and doesnt want to piss HA off idiot.

 

[lebanese1]

لوحظ ان الخلاف بين حركة امل والتيار الوطني الحر انعكس خلافات على العمل الانتخابي في بعبدا حيث حصل اشكال كلامي خلال اعلان اللائحة رسميا امام الجميع، ومن بعدها حصل انقسام كبير ادى الى عدم تعاون الماكينات الانتخابية، وبات كل فريق يعمل لمرشحيه فقط.

 

[freelebanonn]

According to people from baabda makana, things are not looking great in the district and it seems 75% of the expats are against FPM.

 

[HannaTheCrusader]

According to people from baabda makana, things are not looking great in the district and it seems 75% of the expats are against FPM.

anotehr lie
tayyar will easily gets 50% of any expat christian votes

 

[freelebanonn]

anotehr lie
tayyar will easily gets 50% of any expat christian votes

Well i wont reveal my sources but this is what i heard. Maybe its about baabda expats only and not all of them.

 

[lebanese1]

According to people from baabda makana, things are not looking great in the district and it seems 75% of the expats are against FPM.

I suppose they had this data before forming the list... and this is not different than 2009

 

[freelebanonn]

I suppose they had this data before forming the list... and this is not different than 2009

I wonder why though we are struggling when it comes to expats!

 

[lebanese1]

I wonder why though we are struggling when it comes to expats!

because they are influenced by anti-HA media/politics in the west/gulf

 

[wdawle1]

geagea speaking on mtv, he saying right now they are with PSP 2.1 - 2.2 and if Kataeb were with them on list..kataeb would have won 3rd seat.

 

[lebanese1]

geagea speaking on mtv, he saying right now they are with PSP 2.1 - 2.2 and if Kataeb were with them on list..kataeb would have won 3rd seat.

this is true. that's the only reason why FPM is somehow safe on the same list with HA/Amal.

 

[freelebanonn]

geagea speaking on mtv, he saying right now they are with PSP 2.1 - 2.2 and if Kataeb were with them on list..kataeb would have won 3rd seat.

I guess this is why FPM accepted the alliance with hizb in the district . At first they werent sure that kataeb and LF will be on different lists so the decision was to form a separate liste to secure 2 seats by kaser a3la but when things became obvious they changed their minds.

 

[!Aoune32]

Kataeb if allied the third seat???
Ya3ne FPM la7ala ma3anda 7assel in Baabda???

 

[new hope]

Kataeb if allied the third seat???
Ya3ne FPM la7ala ma3anda 7assel in Baabda???

fpm have 7assel and a bit more
they were saying 1 psp 1 lf .. if kataeb an harar joined a third would be kataeb .. but it s just talks