!Aoune32
Well-Known Member
fpm have 7assel and a bit more
they were saying 1 psp 1 lf .. if kataeb an harar joined a third would be kataeb .. but it s just talks
So LF=FPM in Baabda, ma32oul?
fpm have 7assel and a bit more
they were saying 1 psp 1 lf .. if kataeb an harar joined a third would be kataeb .. but it s just talks
geagea missed the fact that had kataeb joined geagea list, FPM would have formed a separate list from hizb and the result would have still ended the same.fpm have 7assel and a bit more
they were saying 1 psp 1 lf .. if kataeb an harar joined a third would be kataeb .. but it s just talks
geagea missed the fact that had kataeb joined geagea list, FPM would have formed a separate list from hizb and the result would have still ended the same.
0 chance.What is the chance of the Kataeb list to get 1 seat?
So LF=FPM in Baabda, ma32oul?
they can try lol
7assel about 15-16 and there is no way 14 shbat can get it, even if they all get together , including sunnis, and excluding druze
the only potential candidate against tayyar gharios, refused to resign the baladiye in order to run
تضم هذه الدائرة 6 مقاعد نيابية
3 مقاعد مارونية
2 شيعة
1 دروز
تتوزع المقاعد الحالية:
3 مقاعد مارونية + مقعد درزي للتيار الوطني الحر.
2 مقاعد شيعية لحزب الله.
وإلى جانب التيار الوطني الحر وحزب الله هناك وجود مهم في هذه الدائرة للحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي والقوات اللبنانية وتيار المستقبل، وهناك وجود ثانوي للكتائب والمردة. وقد فضل رؤساء المجالس البلدية الذي يعتبرون لاعب إنتخابي مهم عدم الاستقالة من رئاسة البلديات لخوض الانتخابات النيابية كما ينص القانون.
عام 2009 بلغ عدد الناخبين 151927 أما عام 2017 فبلغ عدد الناخبين 164222.
ويتوزع الناخبون وفق آخر تحديث لوزارة الداخلية أجري في ربيع 2017 كالتالي:
موارنة 59837 أي 36.44 بالمئة.
شيعة 41022 أي 24.98 بالمئة.
دروز 28631 أي 17.43 بالمئة.
أرثوذكس 12385 أي 7.54 بالمئة.
سنة 9946 أي 6 بالمئة.
كاثوليك 7488 أي 4.56 بالمئة.
في حال بلغت نسبة الاقتراع 56 بالمئة كما حصل عام 2009 فإن الحاصل الانتخابي يكون 15300 صوت، لكن ينتظر أن ترتفع نسبة الاقتراع فيرتفع أيضاً الحاصل الانتخابي. علماً أن حزب الله بوسعه تأمين الحاصل الانتخابي وما يكفي مرشحيه الاثنين من الأصوات التفضيلية، والتيار الوطني الحر بوسعه تأمين الحاصل الانتخابي لوحده أيضاً وما يكفي من الأصوات التفضيلية لمرشحين اثنين، أما سائر الأفرقاء فلا يمكنهم تأمين الحاص
تتحضر القوات اللبنانية في قضاء بعبدا لشهر ميلادي حافل فتنطلق ماكينتها بالعمل بمجرد أن يعلن رئيس الحزب عن مرشحه في قضاء بعبدا عصر غد الخميس، وزير الشؤون الاجتماعية بيار بو عاصي. وتكاد لا تخلو بلدة بعبداوية من نشاطين ميلاديين أقله للقوات خلال الأسبوعين المقبلين، فيما يبدو واضحاً من روزنامة القوات أن هناك تركيز كبير على بلدة الشياح ساحلاً وبلدة المرشح العبادية وسطاً.
علماً أن القوات تقدر حجمها في هذا القضاء بنحو ثمانية آلاف ناخب، فيما يقول خصومها أنها والكتائب اللبنانية قادرين على تأمين ثمانية آلاف لكن ليس لوحدها. والسيناريو الأفضل بالنسبة للقوات كان تحالفها مع الحزب التقدمي حيث يمكنهما سوياً تأمين الحاصل الانتخابي اللازم للفوز بمقعدين، إلا أن تنسيق التقدمي مع حزب الله أكبر وأهم بالنسبة لجنبلاط من تنسيقه مع القوات وهو ما يحول حتى الآن دون الرهان على تحالف قواتيّ – اشتراكيّ. وعليه فالمعركة حتى الآن معركة إثبات حضور بالنسبة للقوات وتسجيل موقف لكن ليس معركة الفوز بمقعد نيابيّ.
Who will Sunnis Vote for?
They said for psp lf list against Hezbollah ... but .. they don’t vote massively even in 2009 their participation was much lower than other sects in the district
Ok so based on 60% turnout on the numbers above, to acheive 4 seats a list needs to get at least 3.6 Hassel and thats 57,157 votes
If tayyar voters = LF voters, this will mean a swing for LF, (i think in 2009 Tayyar got more than 50% of the christian vote)
This means all chritian votes are split equally so
Total christian voters 47,808 *0.5= 28,684 for tayyar
Total druz voters 17178*0.1= 1,717 for tayyar
Total shia votes 24,613*0.98= 24,120 for tayyar
Total 54,521 that’s 2635 short of 4 seats.
Therefore if the shia duo can raise the participation to 68% it will make the difference
If the kataeb and LF vote split, it will help more
If the christian split is not 50% it will help.
Sll the above are likely and therefore i am postive/ confident about the 4 seats
Who will Sunnis Vote for?
Ok so based on 60% turnout on the numbers above, to acheive 4 seats a list needs to get at least 3.6 Hassel and thats 57,157 votes
If tayyar voters = LF voters, this will mean a swing for LF, (i think in 2009 Tayyar got more than 50% of the christian vote)
This means all chritian votes are split equally so
Total christian voters 47,808 *0.5= 28,684 for tayyar
Total druz voters 17178*0.1= 1,717 for tayyar
Total shia votes 24,613*0.98= 24,120 for tayyar
Total 54,521 that’s 2635 short of 4 seats.
Therefore if the shia duo can raise the participation to 68% it will make the difference
If the kataeb and LF vote split, it will help more
If the christian split is not 50% it will help.
Sll the above are likely and therefore i am postive/ confident about the 4 seats
I’m a bit worried about Baabda but will try to be positive here. 3.501 hasels and not 3.6 will be enough to guarantee 4 seats. This is equivalent to 58.4% of the vote. In 2009, our list across the 6 candidates achieved an average of 45,012 votes of the total 84,546 total votes, equivalent to 53.2%, so we are a tad off.
However, if we apply to same logic to the opppsing PSP/LF/FM/Kataeb list in 2009, they only got 43.1% of the vote on average across their 6 candidates. This means that we have a total of 96.3% of people who voted on average for either list. So our 53.2% should now be considered on a denominator of 96.3%, slightly inflating the figure to 55.2%, still a tad too low.
Now if Geagea’s estimates are correct, the LF/PSP/FM list in 2018 will have about 2.2 hasels. This is lower than in 2009 as you have to subtract the Kataeb voters and mujtama3 madane who are not on the same list. This means that 3.3 hasels might be enough to win us 4 seats. This equates to 55% of the vote. If we look at 2009, we are about 2% below that, and this is before we factor in the lost votes to mujtama3 madane, so it doesn’t look good from that angle.
But according to your stats of “007 returns”, 3.3 hasels equates to 52.4K votes which you think we have covered (54,521 votes). I hope so, but that 6th seat will be a big battle for us. What a risk we have taken by allying with HA and nominating 3 candidates rather than 2.
I think the druze vote will be more For fpm this time, its a double wammy of a3war loyalist and arslanbro
tayayr got like 555 OF our people
also kataeb might end up taking like 1 or 2 % from druze list
so badsically give drzue list like 45% mac max of christians
You forgot the conversion of the new hasel after you eliminate the koulouna watani and kateab lists and that favors the one with the most seats so lets say we managed 3.36 hasel PSP/LF list managed 2.39 and Kateab list plus moujtama3 madani a 0.25 hasel. The new total used will be 5.75 = 6 seats so the new hasels will become 3.506 and 2.494 . I used a very close scenario here but this is how a 4 seat for us is not far off however you calculate it unless we get like very low christian numbers for the list.I’m a bit worried about Baabda but will try to be positive here. 3.501 hasels and not 3.6 will be enough to guarantee 4 seats. This is equivalent to 58.4% of the vote. In 2009, our list across the 6 candidates achieved an average of 45,012 votes of the total 84,546 total votes, equivalent to 53.2%, so we are a tad off.
However, if we apply to same logic to the opppsing PSP/LF/FM/Kataeb list in 2009, they only got 43.1% of the vote on average across their 6 candidates. This means that we have a total of 96.3% of people who voted on average for either list. So our 53.2% should now be considered on a denominator of 96.3%, slightly inflating the figure to 55.2%, still a tad too low.
Now if Geagea’s estimates are correct, the LF/PSP/FM list in 2018 will have about 2.2 hasels. This is lower than in 2009 as you have to subtract the Kataeb voters and mujtama3 madane who are not on the same list. This means that 3.3 hasels might be enough to win us 4 seats. This equates to 55% of the vote. If we look at 2009, we are about 2% below that, and this is before we factor in the lost votes to mujtama3 madane, so it doesn’t look good from that angle.
But according to your stats of “007 returns”, 3.3 hasels equates to 52.4K votes which you think we have covered (54,521 votes). I hope so, but that 6th seat will be a big battle for us. What a risk we have taken by allying with HA and nominating 3 candidates rather than 2.
The magic number is we get more than 1.4×their number of votes. Because only these 2 lists will get the hasel a 3.5/2.5=1.4 which is the number multiplied by the LF/PSP list number will give you how much you need to beat them.
Lets say they get 37000 votes you will need 37000x1.4 + 1= 51801 the number u need to get 4 seats. I love the math in this law everything has a ratio and is proportional
You are right but the case i studied was that 2 lists take the hasel only that would make both their ksour together equal 6 . When geagea said 2.2 he was counting the first kaser of laweye7 which included the social scociety and kateab list but the second hasel with both of them gone will yield only 2 lists so in the SECOND hasel we need 3.5 hasel and 1 vote as i just calculated it and it can be proportional to the other list because only 2 lists made it. I hope you got my idea and yes we need one full hasel more then them to get the fourth seatNot exactly correct. The 1.4 figure only applies if the opposing list has exactly 2.5 hasels. The figure changes as the number of hasels in the opposing list changes. For example, if they get 2.2 hasels (Geagea's best estimate), we need at least 3.2 and the multiplier becomes 1.455 (i.e. 3.2/2.2). If they get 2.0, then the multiplier is 1.5.
To put it simpler, we need greater than one hasel more than the opposing list to win the 4th seat, assuming that no other list achieves the threshold.
This is very badly designed. They should have not put a checkbox at the list level, only put one at the candidate level and have some explanation on how to do it.
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