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Elections: Batroun-Koura-Bsharre-Zgharta district

JB81

Legendary Member
Till now it seems that only Jubran will make it from FPM list. FPM should work on securing a 2nd spot ( probably in koura) Its very hard though.
FPM can secure another seat allying with independents, like Tawk in Bsharreh can bring few thousands of votes, or m3awad in Zgharta can be an option.
 
Taking the numbers of last elections
considering 20-25% of votes in koura
and 10-15% in zgharta and bcharre
will get FPM a second seat in addition to Batroun
Most probably it will be the third seat in koura or third seat in zgharta
 
Getting only 1 out of 10 seats in an all Christian district does not make sense to FPM
It will be a very weak showing....
More ground work should be done in this district in addition to working on local alliances
 

JB81

Legendary Member
Getting only 1 out of 10 seats in an all Christian district does not make sense to FPM
It will be a very weak showing....
More ground work should be done in this district in addition to working on local alliances
There's a reason why FPM is weak in this district. Away from Batroun that is closer in it's political affiliation to it's southern neighbors in Mount Lebanon; the rest of cazas in the district are directly and indirectly influenced by local national leaders that made a block into Aoun's sweeping influence toward the North. You have Franjiyeh in Zgharta and Geagea in Bsharre; and both strongly extend their influence into Koura, and made lesser impact into Batroun. For instance, Akkar is like Batroun were FPM is #1 too. Got 2 out of the 5 Northern cazas.

Lots of work needs to be done; FPM can bring an mp on its own; allying with couple personalities in Bsharre, Zgharta and maybe SSNP in Koura will ultimately get 2-3 mps
 
Maybe it’s a reason for the chronic weakness in bcharre and zgharta
But koura is bit different... it’s also orthodox majority with no single leader
A lot could be for grab over there
Maybe there is a lack of interest from FPM to work seriously in these areas
But this new election law will make it a necessity to give importance to these areas since FPM will be logically losing ground in keserwan metn baabda
 

freelebanonn

Well-Known Member
Maybe it’s a reason for the chronic weakness in bcharre and zgharta
But koura is bit different... it’s also orthodox majority with no single leader
A lot could be for grab over there
Maybe there is a lack of interest from FPM to work seriously in these areas
But this new election law will make it a necessity to give importance to these areas since FPM will be logically losing ground in keserwan metn baabda
koura christians wise is around 75 % orthodox and 25% maronites. The biggest difference is made in the maronites villages where LF takes more then 70% of the votes . This is due to the fact that those villages were historically part of becharre but were added to koura in mid 20 century to make the SSNP candidates lose the election . Add to them the sunnite votes who have a significant influence on the battle and LF/Makarri alliance will secure the win. Since 2005 and FPM/ SSNP alliance in koura is getting the majority of orthodox votes but the difference is not enough to compensate the huge difference in the maronite and sunnite votes.

due to FPM being the 3rd force after SSNP and LF in koura, and almost irrelevant in zgharta + Becharre. Getting a 2nd seat will be very hard. Even if they do get that 2nd seat it probably will go to an ally on that list and not to an fpmers .
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
issam fares still holds plenty of influence across the north, in akkar as well as in koura, so he may be able to sway couple of seats towards FPM if he is willing to reenter the political scene, though i see it as a slim possibility.
 
Maybe it’s a reason for the chronic weakness in bcharre and zgharta
But koura is bit different... it’s also orthodox majority with no single leader
A lot could be for grab over there
Maybe there is a lack of interest from FPM to work seriously in these areas
But this new election law will make it a necessity to give importance to these areas since FPM will be logically losing ground in keserwan metn baabda
koura christians wise is around 75 % orthodox and 25% maronites. The biggest difference is made in the maronites villages where LF takes more then 70% of the votes . This is due to the fact that those villages were historically part of becharre but were added to koura in mid 20 century to make the SSNP candidates lose the election . Add to them the sunnite votes who have a significant influence on the battle and LF/Makarri alliance will secure the win. Since 2005 and FPM/ SSNP alliance in koura is getting the majority of orthodox votes but the difference is not enough to compensate the huge difference in the maronite and sunnite votes.

due to FPM being the 3rd force after SSNP and LF in koura, and almost irrelevant in zgharta + Becharre. Getting a 2nd seat will be very hard. Even if they do get that 2nd seat it probably will go to an ally on that list and not to an fpmers .
Jebran tawk took around 4000 votes in 2009 compared to 12000 for the LF
This is 25% in bcharre
In Zgharta it was 55-45 to Frangieh against moawad
So achieving a 15-20% in these two districts seems reasonable with strong local allies
in addition to a 20-25% in koura and 35-40% in batroun will ensure the 2 MPs
 

JeanH

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
Jebran tawk took around 4000 votes in 2009 compared to 12000 for the LF
This is 25% in bcharre
In Zgharta it was 55-45 to Frangieh against moawad
So achieving a 15-20% in these two districts seems reasonable with strong local allies
in addition to a 20-25% in koura and 35-40% in batroun will ensure the 2 MPs
Lf in bcharre in 2009 never really put any effort in the elections since there was no competition , they have more than 75 %
 

JB81

Legendary Member
Will the new ma3mou3a reshuffle election positioning close to M14 vs. M8 camp again? Looks like Hariri may comeback with such platform to take away this anti-HA rhetoric from Riffi and others.
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
latest numbers

تضم هذه الدائرة 10 مقاعد نيابية:
2 موارنة لقضاء البترون
2 موارنة لقضاء بشري
3 موارنة لقضاء زغرتا
3 أرثوذكس لقضاء الكورة.

مجموع عدد الناخبين في هذه الدائرة: 246977 ناخ

في البترون (60128 ناخب) يتوزع الناخبون :
41964 موارنة، 10070 أرثوذكس، 1994 كاثوليك، 3764 سنة، 1034 شيعة.

في بشري (49148) يتوزع الناخبون :
46512 موارنة، 1380 أرثوذكس، 554 كاثوليك، 109 سنة، 27 شيعة.

في زغرتا (77443 ناخب) يتوزع الناخبون :
61121 موارنة، 4376 أرثوذكس، 868 كاثوليك، 9976 سنة، .
151 شيعة


في الكورة (60258 ناخب) يتوزع الناخبون :
12991 موارنة، 35335 أرثوذكس، 713 كاثوليك، 8626 سنة، 1202 شيعة


@Jo
 
Likes: Jo

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
great news indeed
this way kataeb will support ouwat and will be wiped out in
zahle, chouf-aley and wipe botros hareb in batroun ( cause ouwat will have a betetr chance at picking 2nd batroun seat instead of hareb)
and ouwat will lose any hope of a deat in matn ( cause sami , mourr will pick the 2 there)


best news ever

يؤكد المقربون من النائب ايلي ماروني لموقع election18 ان التطورات الاخيرة تحسّن تلاقي القوات والكتائب اللّذين يستعدان لخوض الانتخابات جنبا الى جنب. ويشير هؤلاء الى ان حزبي القوات والكتائب يكونون دائما مع بعضهما البعض حين "يدق الخطر عالبواب"
 
great news indeed
this way kataeb will support ouwat and will be wiped out in
zahle, chouf-aley and wipe botros hareb in batroun ( cause ouwat will have a betetr chance at picking 2nd batroun seat instead of hareb)
and ouwat will lose any hope of a deat in matn ( cause sami , mourr will pick the 2 there)


best news ever

يؤكد المقربون من النائب ايلي ماروني لموقع election18 ان التطورات الاخيرة تحسّن تلاقي القوات والكتائب اللّذين يستعدان لخوض الانتخابات جنبا الى جنب. ويشير هؤلاء الى ان حزبي القوات والكتائب يكونون دائما مع بعضهما البعض حين "يدق الخطر عالبواب"
I don't think its that easy :)
batikh yikaser ba3do. I just hope that FPM has a candidate in Tripoli ;)
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
thats basically the whole marada
his son is another useless i2ta3i , all he acfes about is watches, show offs and to make money
at least his father , has more genuine interests, and does some khadamat
toni is another brat
we are doomed in this region , people sees themselves as sheep, willingly accepting to me willed freely from one za3eem to his next of sperm ,etc...
we are sperm willed



وصول فرنجية الى بيت الوسط للقاء الحريري يرافقه طوني فرنجية وفنيانوس
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
hahahaah
idiot
you want bassil, better beg him
seems hairri told me, sorry donkey
i cnat give you sunni votes good luck, maybe rifi can

فرنجية من بيت الوسط:
- لقائي مع الرئيس الحريري كان ودياً وتحدّثنا بالسياسة وكان هناك اتّفاق على كافة الأمور
- "المردة" تقوم بمصلحتها في كافة الدوائر التي تتواجد فيها ونحن في جو حوار مع "القوات" ولسنا في جو تحالف
- أبوابنا مفتوحة دائماً للوزير باسيل ولغيره
- هل يكون النأي بالنفس مع إسرائيل أيضاً؟ نسلّط الضوء على السلبيات ولا نتكلّم عن كلّ ما هو إيجابي
 
لكن تحركات كنعان ورياشي بقيت في اطار النوايا والتصريحات الإيجابية، لكنها بالفعل لم تؤد الى نتائج فعلية في تقريب وجهات النظر بين حزب القوات اللبنانية وحزب التيار الوطني الحر.
اما بالنسبة الى الدكتور سمير جعجع، فبعد دراسته بالعمق تصريح الوزير جبران باسيل بأنه ليس بوارد الاجتماع معه في المدى المنظور، فقد اتخذ الدكتور سمير جعجع قرارا لم يبلغه الى احد، باستثناء شخصية تعمل على تقريب وجهات النظر بين رئيس الجمهورية العماد ميشال عون والدكتور سمير جعجع قائد القوات اللبنانية، كذلك تحاول التخفيف من تصريحات الوزير جبران باسيل بالنسبة للخلاف مع القوات اللبنانية.
وقرار الدكتور سمير جعجع هو التالي: لا تبحثوا معي بعد الان حصول أي اجتماع مع الوزير جبران باسيل، وان القوات اللبنانيـة ألـغت من قاموسها اسم جبران باسيل. وان الاجتماع الوحيد الذي قد يحصل هو بين رئيس الجمهورية العماد ميشال عون والدكتور سمير جعجع، اما غير ذلك فغير وارد بتاتا ان يستقبل الدكتور سمير جعجع الوزير جبران باسيل، وان الآتي في دائرة البترون في الانتخابات النيابية هو الذي سيفصل ويضع كلمة الفصل في شأن العلاقة بين القوات اللبنانية والوزير جبران باسيل في الانتخابات النيابية بعد 4 اشهر ونصف.