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Elections Elections: Beirut 1 district

eLad

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
#1
Number of MPs: 8

1 Maronite
1 Orthodoxe
1 Catholic
4 Armenians
1 Minorities


Voters 133,806

Christians: 114,957
Shias: 2,663
Sunnis: 13,060
Other: 3,126
 
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  • hakim117

    Well-Known Member
    #6
    Sunni votes will swing one seat one way pr the other
    I dont know if they have that power Hanna. Muslim are a tiny minority in this district. 5/3 seems the most logical to me. 7000 sunni out of 125000 voters wont make that much of a difference I believe. Bass I believe LF Tayyar Tashnag wont take all the seats. I think a third list will manage to get 1. What do you think?
     
    #7
    This district has low threshold, Lets say there are 130000 voters ( although this number could be different)...and that this time 50% vote and not 40%, we end up with a threshold of around 8,000. Of course its still a big number, but it's within reach of many parties/figures.
    Ziad Abs and some other independent rebellious figures could try to assert themselves, so as many other christian parties such as Kataeb/SSNP/Marada could try to influence the outcome. Tashnag could enter alone and get 2 candidates at most, so basically with no improvement on last time. Other Armenian groups could influence the third seat without the 14 march robe this time but wont be able to decide it on their own. I think the fourth armenian seat will be decided entirely by all other christian votes.

    LF and FPM will get at most one MP each. That is AT MOST. Yes the district is secterian and so this gives them a boost, but its Beirut and it has its own calculations, Saying they could add up other figures under their wings is just not realistic because alliances could change so easily. For sure though Ziad Abs would make it if he decides to go on.
     

    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    #8
    This district has low threshold, Lets say there are 130000 voters ( although this number could be different)...and that this time 50% vote and not 40%, we end up with a threshold of around 8,000. Of course its still a big number, but it's within reach of many parties/figures.
    Ziad Abs and some other independent rebellious figures could try to assert themselves, so as many other christian parties such as Kataeb/SSNP/Marada could try to influence the outcome. Tashnag could enter alone and get 2 candidates at most, so basically with no improvement on last time. Other Armenian groups could influence the third seat without the 14 march robe this time but wont be able to decide it on their own. I think the fourth armenian seat will be decided entirely by all other christian votes.

    LF and FPM will get at most one MP each. That is AT MOST. Yes the district is secterian and so this gives them a boost, but its Beirut and it has its own calculations, Saying they could add up other figures under their wings is just not realistic because alliances could change so easily. For sure though Ziad Abs would make it if he decides to go on.
    40000 voted in 2009 not 130000. threshold is very low in this district
     
    #9
    40000 voted in 2009 not 130000. threshold is very low in this district
    It is an estimation that there are 130000 registered voters, and that this time instead of 40% of voting and less ( due to deals done in beirut 2 in 2009 and due to majoritarian law), this time it will be 50% voting or more, which means 65000 votes which divided by 8 seats is around 8000 votes as the threshold.
     
    #11
    I dont know if they have that power Hanna. Muslim are a tiny minority in this district. 5/3 seems the most logical to me. 7000 sunni out of 125000 voters wont make that much of a difference I believe. Bass I believe LF Tayyar Tashnag wont take all the seats. I think a third list will manage to get 1. What do you think?
    If you go by 2009 results, FPM performed terribly and still lost by 2000 - 3000 votes.Relied mainly on the Armenian vote. Adding Medawar to Beirut 1, with make the alliance of FPM - Tashnag get 5 seats out of 8 if FPM performs badly again. This is why I see no point of adding LF to the list.

    Beirut Madinati might take seats away from the other list.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #12
    Betzakar Beirut 1 kenet ma3 Beirut 2 w Hariri and the Syrians keno ye5do kel l MPs in 2000-2005. How things change :)
    Now we have returned how it was before East and West Beirut with West Beirut having 2 christians la2ano fe 50K christian voters. Very well done to the christian parties. Very pleased with this district.
     

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    #13
    I dont know if they have that power Hanna. Muslim are a tiny minority in this district. 5/3 seems the most logical to me. 7000 sunni out of 125000 voters wont make that much of a difference I believe. Bass I believe LF Tayyar Tashnag wont take all the seats. I think a third list will manage to get 1. What do you think?

    possible

    but remeber we are talking about fractions in here

    1.51 or 1.49 translate to 1 MP
     
    #14
    Betzakar Beirut 1 kenet ma3 Beirut 2 w Hariri and the Syrians keno ye5do kel l MPs in 2000-2005. How things change :)
    Now we have returned how it was before East and West Beirut with West Beirut having 2 christians la2ano fe 50K christian voters. Very well done to the christian parties. Very pleased with this district.
    Very true. In 2009 elections, they did not abide by 1960 law.And split Medawar from Beirut 1, because it is loaded with Armenian vote. This was a major point of fight during Doha agreement.

    In a majority election, this district would be sweep for FPM - Tashnag easily now.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #15
    Very true. In 2009 elections, they did not abide by 1960 law.And split Medawar from Beirut 1, because it is loaded with Armenian vote. This was a major point of fight during Doha agreement.

    In a majority election, this district would be sweep for FPM - Tashnag easily now.
    How Beirut is now split is fair as it comes. Armenians are christians. Those bastards who gave us the other law should be hanged.
     

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    #16
    he can bring down hmade , if he get more tafdili than him and its very possible


    علم "ليبانون ديبايت" انّ تيّار التوحيد العربي الذي يرأسه الوزير السابق وئام وهاب، بصدد ترشيح العميد المتقاعد منير شعبان عن المقعد الدرزي في بيروت، وهو كان قد ابلغ حزب الله بهذه الخطوة.
     

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    #17
    he can bring down hmade , if he get more tafdili than him and its very possible


    علم "ليبانون ديبايت" انّ تيّار التوحيد العربي الذي يرأسه الوزير السابق وئام وهاب، بصدد ترشيح العميد المتقاعد منير شعبان عن المقعد الدرزي في بيروت، وهو كان قد ابلغ حزب الله بهذه الخطوة.
    You mean Ghazi Aridi? Hmedeh is an MP in Chouf
     

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    #19
    You mean Ghazi Aridi? Hmedeh is an MP in Chouf

    i think hmade for beirut

    anyway jumbi has no choice but toi beg hariri ( and heseb and tayyar)

    ن جهة أخرى، أجرى رئيس «اللقاء الديموقراطي» النائب وليد جنبلاط اتصالاً بالحريري، تناولا خلاله عدداً من القضايا. وقد جاء هذا الاتصال بعد فترة من القطيعة بين الرجلين، رافقها تراشق إعلامي واتهامات متبادلة بينهما، قبل أن ينخفض سقف الهجوم منذ مدة. وكانت مصادر جنبلاطية قد أشارت لـ«الأخبار» الى أن «هناك قراراً بالتهدئة، رغم عدم وجود تواصل مباشر بين قيادات المستقبل والاشتراكي». ولفتت إلى أن التهدئة «أثمرت هذا الاتصال الذي سوف