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Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Beirut 1 district

dodzi

Legendary Member
If anyone knows the app MySay, they allow every app user of voting and bring up an unscientific poll. You need to say where you vote, so this is pretty interesting
 
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  • I wanna know if am proven wrong later... but opt-in polls are useless to predict tafdili distribution.
    Accurate prediction requires much more data and advanced methodologies. Not something a local company can accomplish.

    Pseudo-independents ala Paula, remains to be seen how much they will be swallowed. They do provide a potential avenue of surprise in the initial results but ri7iton 7a totla3 sooner or later regardless after election.
     
    I wanna know if am proven wrong later... but opt-in polls are useless to predict tafdili distribution.
    Accurate prediction requires much more data and advanced methodologies. Not something a local company can accomplish.

    Pseudo-independents ala Paula, remains to be seen how much they will be swallowed. They do provide a potential avenue of surprise in the initial results but ri7iton 7a totla3 sooner or later regardless after election.
    The only reason paula yaacoubian became an independant is that hariri refused to take her on his list. She is 14 of feb in disguise like many of the mujtama3 madani faces . The founder of hizb sabaa was a kataebi. unfortunately all of those will mostly eat from FPM plate .
     
    The only reason paula yaacoubian became an independant is that hariri refused to take her on his list. She is 14 of feb in disguise like many of the mujtama3 madani faces . The founder of hizb sabaa was a kataebi. unfortunately all of those will mostly eat from FPM plate .
    Its no longer Feb 14 vs FPM or whatever... other than this agree.
    Am saying these trojan horse "independents", might catch some swaths of population off guard this election (size remains to be seen).
    But that won't last long or snowball.
     

    walidos

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Why do you assume that hear people (aka independents) will be a drag on FPM? I will be happy if Ziad Abs makes it, or Gilbert Doumit- much better than pharaon or Gemayel or Tueini... these people though not FPM are almost certain to vote pro FPM if FPM is driving the right projects and agenda... which so far, and excluding day to day politics and questionable leadership decisions within the party, it is (electricity, gas, foreign affairs)... they are likely to support in pushing reform and anti corruption measures. FPM need not treat them like the plague
     
    Why do you assume that hear people (aka independents) will be a drag on FPM? I will be happy if Ziad Abs makes it, or Gilbert Doumit- much better than pharaon or Gemayel or Tueini... these people though not FPM are almost certain to vote pro FPM if FPM is driving the right projects and agenda... which so far, and excluding day to day politics and questionable leadership decisions within the party, it is (electricity, gas, foreign affairs)... they are likely to support in pushing reform and anti corruption measures. FPM need not treat them like the plague
    Its because they wont be replacing pharaon and his likes . They will end up taking votes from FPM enough to make them both lose and pharaon wins or best case scenario they will take FPM place if they managed to make it. Kataeb and LF eat from each others plates. Mujtama3 madani eats from FPM.
     

    Lebnaouneh

    Well-Known Member
    Why do you assume that hear people (aka independents) will be a drag on FPM? I will be happy if Ziad Abs makes it, or Gilbert Doumit- much better than pharaon or Gemayel or Tueini... these people though not FPM are almost certain to vote pro FPM if FPM is driving the right projects and agenda... which so far, and excluding day to day politics and questionable leadership decisions within the party, it is (electricity, gas, foreign affairs)... they are likely to support in pushing reform and anti corruption measures. FPM need not treat them like the plague
    It is them that are treating FPM like the plague, raising concern about their motives
     

    HannaTheCrusader

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    another one that will crash badly

    م يفعل أحد حتى الآن ما فعله المرشح عن المقعد السني في دائرة بيروت الثانية فؤاد مخزومي: تحويل الموظفين في شركاته الأمنية إلى ماكينة انتخابية، إعلانات فوق إعلانات فوق إعلانات، وهدايا فوق هدايا، لكن لا هذه نفعت ولا تلك. معلومات www.elections18.com تؤكد أن أحداً من المرشحين الجديين لم يقبل الانضمام إلى اللائحة التي يحلم المخزومي بتشكيلها، وهو ما يسبب إرباكاً حقيقياً له، فبعد سحب رئيس تحرير اللواء صلاح سلام غالبية من كان المخزومي يعول عليهم، رفض عضو بلدية بيروت السابق سعد الدين الوزان الترشح إلى جانب مخزومي، وتشير معلومات www.elections18.com إلى أن الدكتور محمد البعاضيري رفض أن يواصل الطريق مع المخزومي وهو يفاوض اليوم الثنائية الشيعية للانضمام إليهما بعدما تبين له أن المخزومي غير جديّ ويستحيل على لائحته تأمين حاصل انتخابي. علماً أن المخزومي يوحي بأشياء كثيرة عبر الإعلان الانتخابي لكن الماكينات الانتخابية تبتسم حين تُسأل عنه وتؤكد على اختلاف مشاربها أن تأمينه نصف حاصل إنتخابيّ سيعتبر مفاجأة كبرى.
     

    TayyarBeino

    Legendary Member
    طورسركيسيان: سأترشح للانتخابات ولا علاقات مع تيار المستقبل
    الثلاثاء 13 آذار 2018 20:19سياسة

    cropped_1334855483_Majlis_(28).jpg


    أكد النائب سيرج طورسركيسيان في حديث تلفزيوني انه "خارج تيار المستقبل منذ عام تقريبا"، مشيرا إلى انه "على علاقة جيدة مع رئيس الحكومة سعد الحريري لكن لا علاقات مع تيار المستقبل".
    وقال: "سأحاول العودة إلى مجلس النواب وسنخوض معركة قاسية"، لافتا إلى انه "سأترشح للانتخابات، اللائحة ستكون مزيجا من السياسة والمجتمع المدني والاهالي يتجاوبون معنا"
     

    The Jade

    Legendary Member
    It seems almost confirmed that the watani list will be made up of Ziad Abs, Paula Yaacoubian and the Li Baladi list.

    Talking to many Beirutis that seem to favor that list and no longer trust the parties in power or currently in parliament. However, political discussions in this forum seem to disregard the existence of other than the traditional parties... This will make the surprise ever better
    Yes, this list makes sense.
    Watani promised to have lists ready by the end of the month.
    I think this would be a very interesting list with really good candidates.
    But the battle will be tough in Beirut.
    Definitely a battle worth watching
     
    this types of lists will end up as nehme mahfoud, will show their color after election is over and join future movement.
    Paula Yacoubian is definetly going to get into future movement after election is done, no one takes her serious she is seperate from fm.
     

    The Jade

    Legendary Member
    Its because they wont be replacing pharaon and his likes . They will end up taking votes from FPM enough to make them both lose and pharaon wins or best case scenario they will take FPM place if they managed to make it. Kataeb and LF eat from each others plates. Mujtama3 madani eats from FPM.
    There are many ways to look at it.
    People who would vote Civil Society would not vote for anyone else. They would've stayed home on election day.
    These are people who lost hope in the actual ruling group and how can you blame them?

    Mech ma3rouf *** min bi tiz min!

    Everyone is allied with everyone in this election, there is no more real opposition to the people in power.
    This encourages the division of the cake, which is what happened in the past few years.

    Civil society is indeed made of a lot of disgruntled pro-FPMers, but instead of blaming the former, why don't you ask yourself what made these people turn away from the FPM?
    Isn't it the FPM's fault for not being able to keep these supporters with them?
    Why are parties so quick to blame others for their failures?

    Instead of attacking civil society groups and cozying up to the thieves, which alienates their ex-supporters even more, they should embrace them or at least have a tacit agreement in certain districts.

    Do you prefer a Charbel Nahas or a Saad Hariri?
    Do you prefer a Gilbert Doumit or a Ghassan Achkar?
    Do you prefer a Yorgui Teyrouz or a Nasri Lahoud?

    The FPM has clearly said it prefers the latter......whose fault is it if people don't want to vote FPM then?
     
    There are many ways to look at it.
    People who would vote Civil Society would not vote for anyone else. They would've stayed home on election day.
    These are people who lost hope in the actual ruling group and how can you blame them?

    Mech ma3rouf *** min bi tiz min!

    Everyone is allied with everyone in this election, there is no more real opposition to the people in power.
    This encourages the division of the cake, which is what happened in the past few years.

    Civil society is indeed made of a lot of disgruntled pro-FPMers, but instead of blaming the former, why don't you ask yourself what made these people turn away from the FPM?
    Isn't it the FPM's fault for not being able to keep these supporters with them?
    Why are parties so quick to blame others for their failures?

    Instead of attacking civil society groups and cozying up to the thieves, which alienates their ex-supporters even more, they should embrace them or at least have a tacit agreement in certain districts.

    Do you prefer a Charbel Nahas or a Saad Hariri?
    Do you prefer a Gilbert Doumit or a Ghassan Achkar?
    Do you prefer a Yorgui Teyrouz or a Nasri Lahoud?

    The FPM has clearly said it prefers the latter......whose fault is it if people don't want to vote FPM then?
    The problem for me is that the majority of the mujtama3 madani are bunch of hypocrites ( hariri in disguise) Few of them are decent.
    Yes you have charbel nahas in moujtama3 madani but you have also paula yaacoubian.
    Other than that i agree. FPM is indeed responsible for those people leaving cause it was supposed to be up to their expecations ( speaking about the people who might end up trying the mojtama3 madani) . However i on a personal level still believe FPM is way better than the rest of the rulling class and all the mojtama3 madani will achieve is weakening FPM in their area of strength in favour of the rest of the rulling class without winning anything themselves.

    In other words, mujtama3 madani chances only exist where FPM exits . They dont have any chances in the rest of the districts .
     
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