Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Beirut 1 district

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lebanese1

Legendary Member
FPM list wont get 5 hawasil. Its probably 4-4 or 4-3-1 if civil movement managed a seat. Tachnag wont be able to divide their votes on 3 candidates so it will be on 2. FPM will take sahnawi ( almost guaranted according to FPM makana) and the 4th seat will be a toss between pano, tachnag and hanchag.
if civil movement don't get a 7asel, it can very well end up as 5-3.

as for tashnag, if they think that the list has high chances of getting 5 seats, they can easily give 4 000 votes to each of their 3 candidates and make them win.

last, massoud achkar can be the 4th winner too
 
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    wdawle1

    Member
    FPM list wont get 5 hawasil. Its probably 4-4 or 4-3-1 if civil movement managed a seat. Tachnag wont be able to divide their votes on 3 candidates so it will be on 2. FPM will take sahnawi ( almost guaranted according to FPM makana) and the 4th seat will be a toss between pano, tachnag and hanchag.
    Which begs question, whats point of adding hanchag and FM to the list when we will get 4 with them or without them.
    Per 2009 elections, we get 4 seats facing FM, LF, Hanchag , Pharoan, Kataeb all together...
     
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    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    if civil movement don't get a 7asel, it can very well end up as 5-3.

    as for tashnag, if they think that the list has high chances of getting 5 seats, they can easily give 4 000 votes to each of their 3 candidates and make them win.

    last, massoud achkar can be the 4th winner too
    As per FPM makana 4-4 is the probable result.
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    As per FPM makana 4-4 is the probable result.
    4 for the other list is unlikely.

    3.51 7asel is equivalent to 22 800 votes if 7asel is 6 500 and 20 700 if it drops to 5 900.

    I hardly see them getting this score without FM and Henchag. (they got 14 000 without them in 2009).

    I think it is 5-3 or 4-3-1
     
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    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    4 for the other list is unlikely.

    3.51 7asel is equivalent to 22 800 votes if 7asel is 6 500 and 20 700 if it drops to 5 900.

    I hardly see them getting this score without FM and Henchag. (they got 14 000 without them in 2009).

    I think it is 5-3 or 4-3-1
    Hope so!
     
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    es27

    Active Member
    IF civil society list didn't get the hassel FPM will get 5 seats the other 3 , don't forget FPM is number one party in ashrafieh most probably 2 tachnaq Pano or ashkar sehnaoui and hanchak candidate
     
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    wdawle1

    Member
    I dont think so rabih haber said last time FPM will get higher number of seats specially if Armenian votes is high
    It depends also how much tashnag hacnhag bring armenian votes from outside the country. high armenian turnout will work to our favor.
     
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    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    I predict our voting power is 30% out of the non-armenian christian voters, while 70% to ouwet/kataeb/pharoan.
    Pharaon is in big danger of losing his seat for the 1st time since ages. Thats what matters the most. Sahnawi is very optimistic about his numbers.
     
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    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    Ouwet tafdili vote will go to Imad Wakim per Geagea, whose stronger Wakim or Pharoan in tafdili?
    Personal opinion no real info here. I dont think independant candidates can easily beat candidates backed by parties especially like the case of wakim where all LF votes will go to him from all sects in the districts .
     
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