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Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Chouf-Aley district

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
أوقفت مديرية المخابرات في الجيش اللبناني رواد نور الدين الذي ينتمي الى الحزب الإشتراكي على خلفية تهديده من يحمل علم التيار الوطني الحر بالقتل.
i am expecting there will more attempts to intimidate the voters, do not be intimidated. vote in large numbers and turn a page on jumblat's hegemony over the chouf area. the druze are our brothers and a vote against jumblat is not a vote against the druze.
 

lebanese1

Legendary Member
if there was any directions for the chouf they will be issued before the beginning of the vote; if that happens i will post them on the forum, if no directions are issued by then, vote mario.

as per Bassil, Mario is fine. So if no instructions are given, he better sticks with Atallah
 

Mockinggbird

New Member
as per Bassil, Mario is fine. So if no instructions are given, he better sticks with Atallah
No Mario is not fine and will need every vote
All Christians combined have around 4 to 4.5 hassel
If we consider fpm gets 50%
Than mario needs every single vote to pass
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
as per Bassil, Mario is fine. So if no instructions are given, he better sticks with Atallah
no man, mario still needs plenty of support, so does ghassan, but mario has a better chance to break through on a Maronite seat, because nehme tohme (atallah's competitor on the Catholic seat) will be covered with a tremendous amounts of votes under jumblat's personal directive, while naji bustani (in particular) and ghattas khouri are the weakest link, more vulnerable and can be easier to overcome. but let's wait for the directives. if they do not come my vote goes to mario.
 
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lebanese1

Legendary Member
no man, mario still needs plenty of support, so does ghassan, but mario has a better chance to break through on a Maronite seat, because nehme tohme (atallah's competitor on the Catholic seat) will be covered with a tremendous amounts of votes under jumblat's personal directive, while naji bustani (in particular) and ghattas khouri are the weakest link, more vulnerable and can be easier to overcome. but let's wait for the directives. if they do not come my vote goes to mario.

I think FM will give sunni votes to Ghattas.
 

lebanese1

Legendary Member
no man, mario still needs plenty of support, so does ghassan, but mario has a better chance to break through on a Maronite seat, because nehme tohme (atallah's competitor on the Catholic seat) will be covered with a tremendous amounts of votes under jumblat's personal directive, while naji bustani (in particular) and ghattas khouri are the weakest link, more vulnerable and can be easier to overcome. but let's wait for the directives. if they do not come my vote goes to mario.

I dont think PSP can give tohmeh more than 2000-3000 druze votes. I really think atallah should be supported.
 

lebanese1

Legendary Member
72 000 Christians in Chouf. 50% Participation means 36 000 voters. If FPM has 40% of them, hol 14 000. If they are split 40/60 between Mario and Ghassan, hol 6000 vs 8000. It is super hard for Tohmeh to beat Ghassan and Mario should be safe.
 

freelebanonn

Legendary Member
72 000 Christians in Chouf. 50% Participation means 36 000 voters. If FPM has 40% of them, hol 14 000. If they are split 40/60 between Mario and Ghassan, hol 6000 vs 8000. It is super hard for Tohmeh to beat Ghassan and Mario should be safe.
If you dont get the needed hawasil it wont matter anymore. FPM list must reach the 4th hassel . Haram!
 

lebanese1

Legendary Member
If you dont get the needed hawasil it wont matter anymore. FPM list must reach the 4th hassel . Haram!

I didn't get your point sorry. Can you clarify?

If we get 4 7awasel and all votes go to Mario, then the SSNP or ali hajj will take the 4th seat. So it is really important to give Atallah plenty of votes to overcome Tohmeh. After that neither SSNP OR HAJJ will get more than 6000 votes, so Mario will be the guaranteed 2nd winner.
 

freelebanonn

Legendary Member
I didn't get your point sorry. Can you clarify?

If we get 4 7awasel and all votes go to Mario, then the SSNP or ali hajj will take the 4th seat. So it is really important to give Atallah plenty of votes to overcome Tohmeh. After that neither SSNP OR HAJJ will get more than 6000 votes, so Mario will be the guaranteed 2nd winner.
I know that. I meant that even if FPM split the tafdilis in a smart way it wont matter if we failed to reach the 4th hassel. Jumblat is working so hard on ensuring we dont get it.
I am not raising my hopes high in this district. Tough one for FPM with many barabases against you and a sectarian opponent who is preventing you by forces and threats to make a decent campaign for yourself. Your followers most of them live far away . etc.
 

lebanese1

Legendary Member
I know that. I meant that even if FPM split the tafdilis in a smart way it wont matter if we failed to reach the 4th hassel. Jumblat is working so hard on ensuring we dont get it.
I am not raising my hopes high in this district. Tough one for FPM with many barabases against you and a sectarian opponent who is preventing you by forces and threats to make a decent campaign for yourself. Your followers most of them live far away . etc.

the presence of 2-3 lists that may not reach the treshold could help hopefully...
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
72 000 Christians in Chouf. 50% Participation means 36 000 voters. If FPM has 40% of them, hol 14 000. If they are split 40/60 between Mario and Ghassan, hol 6000 vs 8000. It is super hard for Tohmeh to beat Ghassan and Mario should be safe.
the hassel is expected to be between 12000 and 14000 in the district, meaning that FPM will be needing to secure the higher fraction after the hassel, and is related to the results in alley as well.

it is safer to strike at the weakest links, which is one of the 3 maronite seats, because if ghassan atallah does not manage to win, and after having obtained most the preferential votes from FPM, the second on the list will not be an FPMer.

it depends what FPM is aiming for, if they want nehme tohme's head, it will be a riskier battle, is it worth it though? maybe. i personally would rather go for what guarantees the most number of seats for the card holders.
 

lebanese1

Legendary Member
the hassel is expected to be between 12000 and 14000 in the district, meaning that FPM will be needing to secure the higher fraction after the hassel, and is related to the results in alley as well.

it is safer to strike at the weakest links, which is one of the 3 maronite seats, because if ghassan atallah does not manage to win, and after having obtained most the preferential votes from FPM, the second on the list will not be an FPMer.

it depends what FPM is aiming for, if they want nehme tohme's head, it will be a riskier battle, is it worth it though? maybe. i personally would rather go for what guarantees the most number of seats for the card holders.

read my posts above (recopied below). with just 6000 votes, mario should be very safe. we really want both ghassan and mario

72 000 Christians in Chouf. 50% Participation means 36 000 voters. If FPM has 40% of them, hol 14 000. If they are split 40/60 between Mario and Ghassan, hol 6000 vs 8000. It is super hard for Tohmeh to beat Ghassan and Mario should be safe.

If we get 4 7awasel and all votes go to Mario, then the SSNP or ali hajj will take the 4th seat. So it is really important to give Atallah plenty of votes to overcome Tohmeh. After that neither SSNP OR HAJJ will get more than 6000 votes, so Mario will be the guaranteed 2nd winner.
 

gramsci

Legendary Member
as communist it is our interest that walid junblat line get broken .
PSP were always LCP allies in lebanon , during Kamal junblat original line . this alliance was broken by syrian during the 80's and the wissaye time .
fot the future prospective is the recomposition of the National movement , for a leftist-socialist and secular lebanon .alongside all leftist socialist movements in lebanon-
for this phase our interest that the Duo Berri _ junblat ( ghazi kanaan axis ) get broken.
so our political line converge with FPM .. even if we are not allied,

and thats why i said that druze are the most secular in lebanon , and i keep on my thesis , they will be when they get rid of the corrupt walid and back to kamal junblat original line .
 
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gramsci

Legendary Member
as communist it is our interest that walid junblat line get broken .
PSP were always LCP allies in lebanon , during Kamal junblat original line . this alliance was broken by syrian during the 80's and the wissaye time .
fot the future prospective is the recomposition of the National movement , for a leftist-socialist and secular lebanon .alongside all leftist socialist movements in lebanon-
for this phase our interest that the Duo Berri _ junblat ( ghazi kanaan axis ) get broken.
so our political line converge with FPM .. even if we are not allied,

and thats why i said that druze are the most secular in lebanon , and i keep on my thesis , they will be when they get rid of the corrupt walid and back to kamal junblat original line .

That how we politically will revenge for Kamal junblat and every communist martyr . and not how walid jjunblat thugs crimes in mount lebanon , (they must held accountable for that in any future )where most persons killed just because they were christian , when lot of them in fact were comunist sympathizers ..
the list is long ,, but the battle is political .
 

Thawra # Furoshima

Well-Known Member
read my posts above (recopied below). with just 6000 votes, mario should be very safe. we really want both ghassan and mario

72 000 Christians in Chouf. 50% Participation means 36 000 voters. If FPM has 40% of them, hol 14 000. If they are split 40/60 between Mario and Ghassan, hol 6000 vs 8000. It is super hard for Tohmeh to beat Ghassan and Mario should be safe.

If we get 4 7awasel and all votes go to Mario, then the SSNP or ali hajj will take the 4th seat. So it is really important to give Atallah plenty of votes to overcome Tohmeh. After that neither SSNP OR HAJJ will get more than 6000 votes, so Mario will be the guaranteed 2nd winner.
Completely bullshit
Mario is the absolute priority
Hajj or SSNP have not 6000 or even 4000 in chouf
Completely Habel
Crap Crap
 

Mockinggbird

New Member
Completely bullshit
Mario is the absolute priority
Hajj or SSNP have not 6000 or even 4000 in chouf
Completely Habel
Crap Crap
100%
All fpmers in chouf should vote Mario
Attalah is fighting for a seat that is unique in this district
So in any case if tohme is last from psp list and does not get a hassel
It will go to Attalah and he wins
Fpm should not risk this seat is very symbolic
One seat in chouf is more than enough
It would be a huge symbolic victory
And Mario Aoun is in the best position to make it
First he is the only one from coastal chouf
Second he is only facing one strong candidate (Edwein) for three available seats
Jumbi is the biggest force in this district and he is not fighting for any Maronite seat !
What’s the point of fighting a seat that is targeted by jumblatt when the Maronite can be easier ???!
Personally I will vote Mario Aoun me and all my family
I advise you do the same
 

Mockinggbird

New Member
read my posts above (recopied below). with just 6000 votes, mario should be very safe. we really want both ghassan and mario

72 000 Christians in Chouf. 50% Participation means 36 000 voters. If FPM has 40% of them, hol 14 000. If they are split 40/60 between Mario and Ghassan, hol 6000 vs 8000. It is super hard for Tohmeh to beat Ghassan and Mario should be safe.

If we get 4 7awasel and all votes go to Mario, then the SSNP or ali hajj will take the 4th seat. So it is really important to give Atallah plenty of votes to overcome Tohmeh. After that neither SSNP OR HAJJ will get more than 6000 votes, so Mario will be the guaranteed 2nd winner.

Who told you fpm have 4 hawassel??
Very very risky game based on nothing but nonsense
All votes should go to Mario
Bala habal
Fpm might end up with nothing at all!!
Lf strategy if placing one candidate is much more effective
This is turning into real bs
Hope there is something I don’t know
But it looks really unprofessional
 

Thawra # Furoshima

Well-Known Member
100%
All fpmers in chouf should vote Mario
Attalah is fighting for a seat that is unique in this district
So in any case if tohme is last from psp list and does not get a hassel
It will go to Attalah and he wins
Fpm should not risk this seat is very symbolic
One seat in chouf is more than enough
It would be a huge symbolic victory
And Mario Aoun is in the best position to make it
First he is the only one from coastal chouf
Second he is only facing one strong candidate (Edwein) for three available seats
Jumbi is the biggest force in this district and he is not fighting for any Maronite seat !
What’s the point of fighting a seat that is targeted by jumblatt when the Maronite can be easier ???!
Personally I will vote Mario Aoun me and all my family
I advise you do the same
I vote in alley Cesar Abu Khalil
If I was in Shouf Mario
But a lot of my friends and family voting Mario
Tommorow we celebrate victory hopefully
For the first time we have deputies in Shouf Alley
 
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