Elections Elections: Jezzine-Saida district

[eLad]

Number of MPs: 5
2 Maronites
1 Catholic
2 Sunnis

Voters: 120,898

Christians: 48,329
Shias: 19,085
Sunnis: 52,343
Druze : 616
Alawis: 10
Other: 515

 

[lebanese1]

Ziad Assouad clearly unhappy

الصفحة الرسمية للنائب زياد أسود - Ziad Assouad
June 4 at 6:09pm ·

في حدا يشرحلي كيف هيك دائرة إنتخابية بتكون متساوية وبترفع الغبن وبتصحح التمثيل و...... و..... و.... من كل الشعارات ؟؟؟
صيدا + جزين:
٤٨،٣٢٩ مسيحيين
٥٢،٣٤٣ سنة
١٩،٠٨٥ شيعة
من ضمنهم ١٠،٠٠٠ روم كاثوليك
٢،٥٠٠٠ مسيحي مختلف​

 

[lebanese1]

هيدي للتوضيح ولحتى الحاضر يعلم الغايب. لا رابط جغرافي بين صيدا وجزين الا بعد ان يصار الى ضم المناطق المسيحية في شرق صيدا والموصولة بقضاء الزهراني لأسباب معلومة-مجهولة.
لماذا نضحي بقضاء جزين هكذا ؟ حصل شيء مشابه لهذا، على ايام تقسيمات السوريين الانتخابية، إذ ضم قضاءان شماليان لبعضهما دون اتصال جغرافي.

 

[lebanese1]

https://scontent-lht6-1.xx.fbcdn.ne...=2ccdf9f038a0c2e2d8cbedd9f7ac8a7f&oe=59E5CEC1

 

[lebanese1]

منشان هيك وحتى ما نكون عم نطرق شعارات فارغة، يجب ضم القرى الكاثوليكية الواقعة على الطريق والتي تفصل صيدا عن جزين، الى قضاء جزين ليصبح الوضع شبه متعادل ولا تعود تنتج هيمنة مع ضم المنطقتين انتخابيا.
الموافقة على المطروح يعني الموافقة على ما فعله السوريون سابقا عندما ضمت بشري الى المنية في انتخابات على ايام السوريين. ويعني المسافة تبعد بين المعلن والممارس.
يحصل الان أسوأ بما لا يقاس​

 

[lebanese1]

Jezzine's situation is not good at all with this law. Look at this very plausible scenario.

Based on 2009's results:
-FPM+LF together will have around 16000-17000 votes
-Hariri will have around 24000 votes
-Samir Azar + Oussama Saad will get around 23000 vote

Consequently.
-FPM+LF together will have 1 seat
-Hariri will have 2 seats
-Samir Azar + Oussama Saad will get 2 seats.

If preferential votes are counted 3amoudiyyan, Hariri will grab the 2 sunni seats of Saida at the expense of Oussama Saad and thus the 2 seats won by the Saad-Azar alliance will be both Christians and will go to Berri. and Jezzine will thus be back to the pre-2009 era.

 

[LVV]

Jezzine's situation is not good at all with this law. Look at this very plausible scenario.

Based on 2009's results:
-FPM+LF together will have around 16000-17000 votes
-Hariri will have around 24000 votes
-Samir Azar + Oussama Saad will get around 23000 vote

Consequently.
-FPM+LF together will have 1 seat
-Hariri will have 2 seats
-Samir Azar + Oussama Saad will get 2 seats.

If preferential votes are counted 3amoudiyyan, Hariri will grab the 2 sunni seats of Saida at the expense of Oussama Saad and thus the 2 seats won by the Saad-Azar alliance will be both Christians and will go to Berri. and Jezzine will thus be back to the pre-2009 era.

Wrong Tafdily in Jezzin will give Christian parties 1 more seat
23000/61000 divided by 5 = 12,200 meaning they don't have 24,400 for 2 seats

 

[lebanese1]

Wrong Tafdily in Jezzin will give Christian 1 more seat

Care to explain how?

 

[LVV]

Care to explain how?

??????? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ??????

 

[lebanese1]

??????? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ??????

wrong link

 

[LVV]

Wrong Tafdily in Jezzin will give Christian parties 1 more seat
23000/61000 divided by 5 = 12,200 meaning they don't have 24,400 for 2 seats

 

[LVV]

Care to explain how?

Simple math first you are assuming numbers ; let's take them 23000 will give them one seat; they need 24,400 Spécially if Tafdily in Jezzin go to second Christian candidate
Elementary my dear Watson

 

[LVV]

Care to explain how?

So lesson of the day

 

[lebanese1]

Simple math first you are assuming numbers ; let's take them 23000 will give them one seat
Elementary my dear Watson

FPM+LF will have (17000*5/64000)= 1.33
Hariri will have (24000*5/6000)= 1.88
Saad-Azar will have (23000*5/64000) = 1.80

So FPM-LF will have 1 not 2.

Recheck your math!

 

[LVV]

FPM+LF will have (17000*5/64000)= 1.33
Hariri will have (24000*5/6000)= 1.88
Saad-Azar will have (23000*5/64000) = 1.80

So FPM-LF will have 1 not 2.

Recheck your math!

Not if Harriri and FPM and LF on the same list
First list will have 41,000 meaning 3,2
Second list 23,000 1,80

 

[lebanese1]

Not if Harriri and FPM and LF on the same list

Nothinbg will change if they are on the same list. Hariri's priority is to get the 2 sunni seats, not to give FPM/LF a 2nd Christian seat.

 

[LVV]

Nothinbg will change if they are on the same list. Hariri's priority is to get the 2 sunni seats, not to give FPM/LF a 2nd Christian seat.

That's for Harriri to decide not for you , perhaps this will be part of an electoral pact all over Lebanon anyway it seems we are going back to 1960 law all this is an academic
Debate

 

[lebanese1]

That's for Harriri to decide not for you , perhaps this will be part of an electoral pact all over Lebanon

So it is not the law that gives 2 seats but the alliances.

 

[LVV]

So it is not the law that gives 2 seats but the alliances.

So what alliances are everything in that case

 

[LVV]

Why do you assume Azzar saad will get 23,000 votes; HA will not vote FPM the end of the alliance