Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Jezzine-Saida district

eLad

eLad

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Number of MPs: 5
2 Maronites
1 Catholic
2 Sunnis

Voters: 120,898

Christians: 48,329
Shias: 19,085
Sunnis: 52,343
Druze : 616
Alawis: 10
Other: 515
 
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    Ziad Assouad clearly unhappy

    الصفحة الرسمية للنائب زياد أسود - Ziad Assouad
    June 4 at 6:09pm ·

    في حدا يشرحلي كيف هيك دائرة إنتخابية بتكون متساوية وبترفع الغبن وبتصحح التمثيل و...... و..... و.... من كل الشعارات ؟؟؟
    صيدا + جزين:
    ٤٨،٣٢٩ مسيحيين
    ٥٢،٣٤٣ سنة
    ١٩،٠٨٥ شيعة
    من ضمنهم ١٠،٠٠٠ روم كاثوليك
    ٢،٥٠٠٠ مسيحي مختلف
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member



    هيدي للتوضيح ولحتى الحاضر يعلم الغايب. لا رابط جغرافي بين صيدا وجزين الا بعد ان يصار الى ضم المناطق المسيحية في شرق صيدا والموصولة بقضاء الزهراني لأسباب معلومة-مجهولة.
    لماذا نضحي بقضاء جزين هكذا ؟ حصل شيء مشابه لهذا، على ايام تقسيمات السوريين الانتخابية، إذ ضم قضاءان شماليان لبعضهما دون اتصال جغرافي.
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    منشان هيك وحتى ما نكون عم نطرق شعارات فارغة، يجب ضم القرى الكاثوليكية الواقعة على الطريق والتي تفصل صيدا عن جزين، الى قضاء جزين ليصبح الوضع شبه متعادل ولا تعود تنتج هيمنة مع ضم المنطقتين انتخابيا.
    الموافقة على المطروح يعني الموافقة على ما فعله السوريون سابقا عندما ضمت بشري الى المنية في انتخابات على ايام السوريين. ويعني المسافة تبعد بين المعلن والممارس.
    يحصل الان أسوأ بما لا يقاس
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    Jezzine's situation is not good at all with this law. Look at this very plausible scenario.

    Based on 2009's results:
    -FPM+LF together will have around 16000-17000 votes
    -Hariri will have around 24000 votes
    -Samir Azar + Oussama Saad will get around 23000 vote

    Consequently.
    -FPM+LF together will have 1 seat
    -Hariri will have 2 seats
    -Samir Azar + Oussama Saad will get 2 seats.

    If preferential votes are counted 3amoudiyyan, Hariri will grab the 2 sunni seats of Saida at the expense of Oussama Saad and thus the 2 seats won by the Saad-Azar alliance will be both Christians and will go to Berri. and Jezzine will thus be back to the pre-2009 era.
     
    LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    Jezzine's situation is not good at all with this law. Look at this very plausible scenario.

    Based on 2009's results:
    -FPM+LF together will have around 16000-17000 votes
    -Hariri will have around 24000 votes
    -Samir Azar + Oussama Saad will get around 23000 vote

    Consequently.
    -FPM+LF together will have 1 seat
    -Hariri will have 2 seats
    -Samir Azar + Oussama Saad will get 2 seats.

    If preferential votes are counted 3amoudiyyan, Hariri will grab the 2 sunni seats of Saida at the expense of Oussama Saad and thus the 2 seats won by the Saad-Azar alliance will be both Christians and will go to Berri. and Jezzine will thus be back to the pre-2009 era.
    Wrong Tafdily in Jezzin will give Christian parties 1 more seat
    23000/61000 divided by 5 = 12,200 meaning they don't have 24,400 for 2 seats
     
    LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    Care to explain how? :)
    Simple math first you are assuming numbers ; let's take them 23000 will give them one seat; they need 24,400 Spécially if Tafdily in Jezzin go to second Christian candidate
    Elementary my dear Watson
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    Simple math first you are assuming numbers ; let's take them 23000 will give them one seat
    Elementary my dear Watson
    FPM+LF will have (17000*5/64000)= 1.33
    Hariri will have (24000*5/6000)= 1.88
    Saad-Azar will have (23000*5/64000) = 1.80

    So FPM-LF will have 1 not 2.

    Recheck your math!
     
    LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    FPM+LF will have (17000*5/64000)= 1.33
    Hariri will have (24000*5/6000)= 1.88
    Saad-Azar will have (23000*5/64000) = 1.80

    So FPM-LF will have 1 not 2.

    Recheck your math!
    Not if Harriri and FPM and LF on the same list
    First list will have 41,000 meaning 3,2
    Second list 23,000 1,80
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    Not if Harriri and FPM and LF on the same list
    Nothinbg will change if they are on the same list. Hariri's priority is to get the 2 sunni seats, not to give FPM/LF a 2nd Christian seat.
     
    LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    Nothinbg will change if they are on the same list. Hariri's priority is to get the 2 sunni seats, not to give FPM/LF a 2nd Christian seat.
    That's for Harriri to decide not for you , perhaps this will be part of an electoral pact all over Lebanon anyway it seems we are going back to 1960 law all this is an academic
    Debate
     
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    lebanese1

    Legendary Member
    That's for Harriri to decide not for you , perhaps this will be part of an electoral pact all over Lebanon
    So it is not the law that gives 2 seats but the alliances. :)
     
    LVV

    LVV

    Well-Known Member
    Why do you assume Azzar saad will get 23,000 votes; HA will not vote FPM the end of the alliance
     
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