I gave zgharta as an example because LF used to say that they are the 3rd party after frangieh and mouawad in zgharta. This election proved them wrong. I can give you another example beirut 1 . I always had a bet with my friends that FPM are more than LF in beirut 1 but the general mood of the city is not in majority aounist ( LF- kataeb -aoude - pharaon and his khadamet etc) . This election with the right law proved me right.Zgharta ?? We all know that zgharta is neither ouwet nor fpm, but family business with franjieh the ceo, moawad the cfo and doueihi the cio. I am not doing propaganda, w l berhan I said mabrouk neemat efrem who was on fom list.
It s not because LF is 300% stronger than FPM in bcharreh that LF is stronger all over lebanon. I still do believe that FPM militants/ sympathizers/ supporters are more numerous than ouwet. But I believe in the potential of ouwet in the long run
It s like investing in a growth high tech startup company. While I would bet on short selling FPM value stock on the verge of dismantlment and divestiture because the breaking is inevitable. The election taught us many lessons on fpm. Fpmers are their own enemies (walid khoury vs abi ramia, gharios vs deeb, azar + bassil vs chamel. And so on)
I on the other hand bet on the potential of alain aoun+ ibrahim kanaan + chamel roukoz who will constitute a neo fpm soon. That would be a good growth stock to bet on
What i wanted to say is that LF are the best when it comes to winning media wars . 3 LFers in a neighbourhood can make you feel they are in the thousands.
Everybody including LF were betting on jubran failing to maintain aoun legacy. He proved everyone wrong in his first test.
LF did great in this election due to several factors but their result was overshadowed by FPM result thus the taste of their success was somehow bitter. Why? Well they were betting on FPM not getting more than 20 mps which will force them to come and ask for an alliance with LF to protect the 3ahed in return to succumbing to all of LF demands. They failed.
Now all what LF are trying to do is to win the media war by discrediting FPM numbers and by dissecting the results peace by peace in hope of finding any clue that threngthen their arguments.