Elections Elections: Nabatiyeh-Marjayoun-Bint Jbeil-Hasbayya district
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It's actually better to combine them for Christian representation, Shia are 60% in Marjeyoun-Hasbaya District.
There is 23,000 Christians in Marjeyoun-Hasabaya for 1 Christian seat, However there is 22,000 Christians in Nabatiyeh and Bent Jbiel with no Christian seat. Thus there will be about 45,000+ Christian voters in the Shia Heartline,
There is 23,000 Christians in Marjeyoun-Hasabaya for 1 Christian seat, However there is 22,000 Christians in Nabatiyeh and Bent Jbiel with no Christian seat. Thus there will be about 45,000+ Christian voters in the Shia Heartline,
Larger District = better representation for all, especially for small groups.
With Marjeyoun-Hasbaya as 1 district, Christians won't be able to influence more than 0.7 Candidate out of 5.
But with the Combined District, the Christians elect 1.07 Candidate out 11, while they are allocated 1 seat. It's fair.
With Marjeyoun-Hasbaya as 1 district, Christians won't be able to influence more than 0.7 Candidate out of 5.
But with the Combined District, the Christians elect 1.07 Candidate out 11, while they are allocated 1 seat. It's fair.
It is time the shia duo is broken. With the proportional law FPM doesnt need HA nor vice versa. FPM should be going with the LCP in the South and see what he can do. I am positive they will be able to capture a seat or 2. We seem to forget the participation rate is about 47% so we amp up the rate and vote. People know the outcome hence the rate is slow.
Charbel nahhas should make a list in Beirut and go for it.
Charbel nahhas should make a list in Beirut and go for it.
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I think FPM stance in that region will be in accordance with HA. Not sure if HA and Amal are running on same list since they eat from each others share this way. So, the alliances can be HA-FPM-and maybe some other party, Amal-SSNP-Jumblatt, LCP-Civil Society-elAssad.
In this case, FPM have a big chance to get the Orthodox seat.
In this case, FPM have a big chance to get the Orthodox seat.
based on various result it must not be less than 20 %... but u know in this election u cannot predict since the lcp is absent since the 1987 .. and they are under constant harrassement from amal and ha.. and economic restriction ...but still there are some strongholds like in kfarrouman , khyam , bint jbeil , nabatieh ,marje3youn ...
i doubt that fpm is still in time for this accord but i wish it , since i personally would vote for both ..but they must have a electoral program and not only accord to get a seat here and there .. that in case it happen , will be a huge challenge , adding to it the tough presence of fpm in jezzin , getting through the deep south will make fpm to overcome its sectarian limitation ... but this is a red line for amal and HA, syria and iran ..( they massacred the comunist there to control the shia sect entirely )...
Btw: i vote in this district.
i doubt that fpm is still in time for this accord but i wish it , since i personally would vote for both ..but they must have a electoral program and not only accord to get a seat here and there .. that in case it happen , will be a huge challenge , adding to it the tough presence of fpm in jezzin , getting through the deep south will make fpm to overcome its sectarian limitation ... but this is a red line for amal and HA, syria and iran ..( they massacred the comunist there to control the shia sect entirely )...
Btw: i vote in this district.
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