Elections Elections: Nabatiyeh-Marjayoun-Bint Jbeil-Hasbayya district

eLad

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
#1
Number of MPs: 11
1 Orthodox
8 Shia
1 Sunni
1 Druze


Voters: 451,050

Christians: 45,130
Shias: 355,130
Sunnis: 32,883
Druze : 16,377
Alawis: 38
Other: 1,492
 
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  • Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #4
    SSNP is dominate in Marjayoun, so they'll probably get it.


    This district is a battleground between HA/Amal and the Civic Movement(including the Shia "opposition"), they can get 3-4 seats.
    The district should have been cut even more with Bent Jbeil and Nabatiyeh as one and Marjeyoun and Hasbaya as one.
     
    #5
    The district should have been cut even more with Bent Jbeil and Nabatiyeh as one and Marjeyoun and Hasbaya as one.
    It's actually better to combine them for Christian representation, Shia are 60% in Marjeyoun-Hasbaya District.

    There is 23,000 Christians in Marjeyoun-Hasabaya for 1 Christian seat, However there is 22,000 Christians in Nabatiyeh and Bent Jbiel with no Christian seat. Thus there will be about 45,000+ Christian voters in the Shia Heartline,
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #6
    It's actually better to combine them for Christian representation, Shia are 60% in Marjeyoun-Hasbaya District.

    There is 23,000 Christians in Marjeyoun-Hasabaya for 1 Christian seat, However there is 22,000 Christians in Nabatiyeh and Bent Jbiel with no Christian seat. Thus there will be about 45,000+ Christian voters in the Shia Heartline,
    What is the advantage thought? They could have voted in their candidate if seperated.
     
    #7
    What is the advantage thought? They could have voted in their candidate if seperated.
    Larger District = better representation for all, especially for small groups.

    With Marjeyoun-Hasbaya as 1 district, Christians won't be able to influence more than 0.7 Candidate out of 5.
    But with the Combined District, the Christians elect 1.07 Candidate out 11, while they are allocated 1 seat. It's fair.
     

    opium

    Well-Known Member
    #8
    Ok I will give it a shot, finally a chance to get rid of Assaad Hardan. Let us hope that the Christians turn out on elections there won't be minimal as it used to be.

    And no Ssnp are not dominate here, maybe in Druze towns they have some influence 20-25%, but surely not in Christians towns.
     

    Placebo

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    #9
    What might happen is that ha/amal/ssnp will boost the voting rate and make the threshold very difficult to break by any other opposing list, especially if it's the orthodox seat at stake.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #10
    FPM should field the christian candidate and some shia there. If Berri wants to take a christians seat in Jezzine and the shia in Jbeil FPM needa to field candidates in their heartland also. Maybe ally with the LCP and see if you can snatch a seat or 2.
     

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    #11
    FPM should field the christian candidate and some shia there. If Berri wants to take a christians seat in Jezzine and the shia in Jbeil FPM needa to field candidates in their heartland also. Maybe ally with the LCP and see if you can snatch a seat or 2.
    bravo..
    an accord between FPM and LCP is more than natural .. charbel nahhas is the key.. that will be a big challenge for the shia duo in the south.. also in bekaa
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #12
    bravo..
    an accord between FPM and LCP is more than natural .. charbel nahhas is the key.. that will be a big challenge for the shia duo in the south.. also in bekaa
    It is time the shia duo is broken. With the proportional law FPM doesnt need HA nor vice versa. FPM should be going with the LCP in the South and see what he can do. I am positive they will be able to capture a seat or 2. We seem to forget the participation rate is about 47% so we amp up the rate and vote. People know the outcome hence the rate is slow.
    Charbel nahhas should make a list in Beirut and go for it.
     

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    #13
    It is time the shia duo is broken. With the proportional law FPM doesnt need HA nor vice versa. FPM should be going with the LCP in the South and see what he can do. I am positive they will be able to capture a seat or 2. We seem to forget the participation rate is about 47% so we amp up the rate and vote. People know the outcome hence the rate is slow.
    Charbel nahhas should make a list in Beirut and go for it.
    that would be a nightmare for berri.. since he think that the shia sect in unpenetrable :D..
     

    JB81

    Legendary Member
    #15
    I think FPM stance in that region will be in accordance with HA. Not sure if HA and Amal are running on same list since they eat from each others share this way. So, the alliances can be HA-FPM-and maybe some other party, Amal-SSNP-Jumblatt, LCP-Civil Society-elAssad.

    In this case, FPM have a big chance to get the Orthodox seat.
     

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    #16
    Not all the shia hene ma3oun. They just have not got competition. What is the LCP power in this district??
    based on various result it must not be less than 20 %... but u know in this election u cannot predict since the lcp is absent since the 1987 .. and they are under constant harrassement from amal and ha.. and economic restriction ...but still there are some strongholds like in kfarrouman , khyam , bint jbeil , nabatieh ,marje3youn ...
    i doubt that fpm is still in time for this accord but i wish it , since i personally would vote for both ..but they must have a electoral program and not only accord to get a seat here and there .. that in case it happen , will be a huge challenge , adding to it the tough presence of fpm in jezzin , getting through the deep south will make fpm to overcome its sectarian limitation ... but this is a red line for amal and HA, syria and iran ..( they massacred the comunist there to control the shia sect entirely )...

    Btw: i vote in this district.
     
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    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #17
    based on various result it must not be less than 20 %... but u know in this election u cannot predict since the lcp is absent since the 1987 .. and they are under constant harrassement from amal and ha.. and economic restriction ...but still there are some strongholds like in kfarrouman , khyam , bint jbeil , nabatieh ,marje3youn ...
    i doubt that fpm is still in time for this accord but i wish it , since i personally would vote for both ..but they must have a electoral program and not only accord to get a seat here and there .. that in case it happen , will be a huge challenge , adding to it the tough presence of fpm in jezzin , getting through the deep south will make fpm to overcome its sectarian limitation ... but this is a red line for amal and HA, syria and iran ..( they massacred the comunist there to control the shia sect entirely )...

    Btw: i vote in this district.
    I know exactly what they did to the LCP and its members there. :)
    The communists were the leading force against the Israeli aggressor. They massacred the communists and had the whole shia sect obeying them.
     

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    #19
    Yemken netla3 arayeb ya3ne?
    Lebanon is small i guess all people are relative in somehow ..
    I had never voted in the past in lebanon ..and my name is on electoral list there on those lists , but i highly doubt that i go to lebanon to vote .
     

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