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Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Nabatiyeh-Marjayoun-Bint Jbeil-Hasbayya district

gramsci

Legendary Member
Very silly that there are more than 2 lists. To beat the duo in this district they should have one list with FM, FPM and the LCP. Or one with FM and FPM and one whole list of LCP. The LCP has alot of votes in this district. Will it be enough for a 7assel, maba3ref??
i have no clue about how much estimated the vote for Lcp or about hassel , i have a feeling that at least one of the seat can win , but indeed , too much lists will disperse the vote.
the electoral battle is going to be between shia duo , and LF/ DL list (this list indirectly may be supported by ahmad asaad list), on political issue , and here the takhween and mouqawama stuff will close the debate .
between the shia duo and LCP about class conflict , anti sectarianism , social justice ,anti corruption and reforms ..
i do not understand the title of electoral battle of fpm and FM ..
 
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  • Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    indeed , that will disperse the vote.
    They should have done what was done in baalbeck. LCP for the shia seats and FPM for the orthodox with FM for the sunni + Arslen for the druze.
    That would have been a powerful list. I hope at least one LCP member gets into Parliament. Just to have a voice for the truly neglected people in the area. What Berri has done in the south is disgusting.
     

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    @Aoune32! if u got any statistics post it here
    All I know it depends on the participation rate. If it is at 50% then you will have approx 225K voters. 225/11 is about 21K that is the 7asel. That is if 50% vote. Normally in these areas the voters are about 40-45% max participation rate. It could be because they are out of the country or moved to Dahiye masalan. These participation rate is ma3 teklif char3e in 2009.

    The druze by themselves dont have a 7assel.
    The sunnis are just off a 7assel and the only ones who have a 7assel is the christians.
    45K with 50% participation rate is 22.5K.
    This time we can get a 60% participation rate as there is now competition. The villages of Bent Jbeil la7aloun fe about 15K christians.

    If FM and FPM and the LCP on one list they would have got at least 3-4 seats i am sure but now they are not one list. I dont know. They have alot of votes but not sure if they can get a 7assel each list by itself. i find it hard to believe that the LCP main areas the South and main sect the shia cannot get a 7assel.

    Also dont forget that the LCP didnt participate in 2009 only 2005. Anwar Yassine got 19K votes approx. Now in 2018 the LCP should easily get a 7assel.
     
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    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    All I know it depends on the participation rate. If it is at 50% then you will have approx 225K voters. 225/11 is about 21K that is the 7asel. That is if 50% vote. Normally in these areas the voters are about 40-45% max participation rate. It could be because they are out of the country or moved to Dahiye masalan. These participation rate is ma3 teklif char3e in 2009.

    The druze by themselves dont have a 7assel.
    The sunnis are just off a 7assel and the only ones who have a 7assel is the christians.
    45K with 50% participation rate is 22.5K.
    This time we can get a 60% participation rate as there is now competition. The villages of Bent Jbeil la7aloun fe about 15K christians.

    If FM and FPM and the LCP on one list they would have got at least 3-4 seats i am sure but now they are not one list. I dont know. They have alot of votes but not sure if they can get a 7assel each list by itself. i find it hard to believe that the LCP main areas the South and main sect the shia cannot get a 7assel.

    Also dont forget that the LCP didnt participate in 2009 only 2005. Anwar Yassine got 19K votes approx. Now in 2018 the LCP should easily get a 7assel.
    its hards to predict about lcp my friend..
    there was an estimate that LCP voters are circa 20 % of the total .. or if we talk with numbers , 35 000 votes i guess it could be achieved in this caza..
    but this talk is 10 years ago .. i dunno how much the situation is changed,. one positive thing is hanna gharib is an awesome person , and he did really made a huge change in lcp ..hope that will repay ..
    depend on how the part will repotition themselves..
    if it tuen to mokawama and anti moukawama battle .. the duo will win it .. if it keep the moqawama issue out of debate , and concentrate on social economic issues .. the duo are in hard position and the favorite is LCP -
     

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    its hards to predict about lcp my friend..
    there was an estimate that LCP voters are circa 20 % of the total .. or if we talk with numbers , 35 000 votes i guess it could be achieved in this caza..
    but this talk is 10 years ago .. i dunno how much the situation is changed,. one positive thing is hanna gharib is an awesome person , and he did really made a huge change in lcp ..hope that will repay ..
    depend on how the part will repotition themselves..
    if it tuen to mokawama and anti moukawama battle .. the duo will win it .. if it keep the moqawama issue out of debate , and concentrate on social economic issues .. the duo are in hard position and the favorite is LCP -
    One thing for sure if the LCP doesn't get an MP this time round the party should be disbanded. It is not what people want and khalas they want the duo.
     

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    One thing for sure if the LCP doesn't get an MP this time round the party should be disbanded. It is not what people want and khalas they want the duo.
    nah they have reasons to exist way beyong electoral result ... lets say hanna gharib put the party in a good trails after more than 25 years of disasters..
    the party must take its position in defending the workers class ,the basic rights of lebanese people ..and they are part of the international communist ..they were in moscow in novembe alongside comunist parties from more than 140 countries..
     
    They should have done what was done in baalbeck. LCP for the shia seats and FPM for the orthodox with FM for the sunni + Arslen for the druze.
    That would have been a powerful list. I hope at least one LCP member gets into Parliament. Just to have a voice for the truly neglected people in the area. What Berri has done in the south is disgusting.
    LCP is more popular among christians in the South than any "major" christian party! Why should they give a free seat for FPM? They already said they won't ally with any ruling party! The number of votes that LCP would get is unknown but enough to be headache for the shia duo. They can get 12,000 votes easily and probably more.
     

    Dark Angel

    Legendary Member
    LCP is more popular among christians in the South than any "major" christian party! Why should they give a free seat for FPM? They already said they won't ally with any ruling party! The number of votes that LCP would get is unknown but enough to be headache for the shia duo. They can get 12,000 votes easily and probably more.
    utterly wrong. substantiate ur claim with evidence. the LCP has absolutely no support in the Christian south. the Christians in the south are like the Christians elsewhere in Lebanon, the LCP doesnt even register on their scale of allegiances.
     
    utterly wrong. substantiate ur claim with evidence. the LCP has absolutely no support in the Christian south. the Christians in the south are like the Christians elsewhere in Lebanon, the LCP doesnt even register on their scale of allegiances.
    As if the Christian parties ever cared about the christians in the deep south! The was always neglicted by the Christian parties since they have a little electoral value. Only Kaetab have an office in marjyoun and LF holds a very few small municipalities. That's it.
     

    Dark Angel

    Legendary Member
    As if the Christian parties ever cared about the christians in the deep south! The was always neglicted by the Christian parties since they have a little electoral value. Only Kaetab have an office in marjyoun and LF holds a very few small municipalities. That's it.
    you made a wrong claim, have the decency to stand and correct it, instead of jumping from one lie to the next, what is based on lies will never be a better alternative.
     

    opium

    Well-Known Member
    Lcp majority between Christians in the south? I don't even know one person supporting them.... Even kawmie have now less than 5% in Christian towns.
     
    you made a wrong claim, have the decency to stand and correct it, instead of jumping from one lie to the next, what is based on lies will never be a better alternative.
    They got a fair share of Christian vote in 2005, the last time they presented a candidate.

    Lcp majority between Christians in the south? I don't even know one person supporting them.... Even kawmie have now less than 5% in Christian towns.
    They are not a majority, however they have more presence than the "christian" parties that always ignored the christian areas in the South.
     

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    They got a fair share of Christian vote in 2005, the last time they presented a candidate.



    They are not a majority, however they have more presence than the "christian" parties that always ignored the christian areas in the South.
    That's a big lie; I am from there and I know that communists don't constitute 5% of the Christian population. Before the 90s, many claimed to be communists just to give their children free education in the Soviet Union but, now, in some villages, communists have 0 presence.
     

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    That's a big lie; I am from there and I know that communists don't constitute 5% of the Christian population. Before the 90s, many claimed to be communists just to give their children free education in the Soviet Union but, now, in some villages, communists have 0 presence.
    Choosing to vote communist mean choosing a moderate position against sectarian polarisation ..
    If christian opt to vote for their sectarian parties , just like the shia option to vote for their Duo..
    And its good that soviet union is not there anymore , so no one need to pretend to be communist ..
    So its election.. People have the freedom to choose what the best than can rappresent them in the parliament .. Wether they are christians or muslim or atheist.. Btw communist we among christian , souha bechara was from a christian family from ebl l saqi , many other communist resistance fighters were from the south christian , and many were from the other christian towns in lebanon.. Just look to the list of LcP martyrs and you will realize that not all christian pretended to be communist to get education from soviet union, but were convinced communist ..
     

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    Choosing to vote communist mean choosing a moderate position against sectarian polarisation ..
    If christian opt to vote for their sectarian parties , just like the shia option to vote for their Duo..
    And its good that soviet union is not there anymore , so no one need to pretend to be communist ..
    So its election.. People have the freedom to choose what the best than can rappresent them in the parliament .. Wether they are christians or muslim or atheist.. Btw communist we among christian , souha bechara was from a christian family from ebl l saqi , many other communist resistance fighters were from the south christian , and many were from the other christian towns in lebanon.. Just look to the list of LcP martyrs and you will realize that not all christian pretended to be communist to get education from soviet union, but were convinced communist ..
    1- Souha Beshara is from a Christian family from Deir Mimas.
    2- I am talking specifically about the Southern Christian villages; you claimed that communists are very popular in these villages; I am telling you this is not true. Now, you're telling me that most of the communists and communist martyrs are Christians; who said otherwise?
    3- I didn't say all of the Christians pretended to be communists, I said many claimed and many doesn't mean all.
    4- Please answer what I say not what you assumed that I said.
     

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    1- Souha Beshara is from a Christian family from Deir Mimas.
    2- I am talking specifically about the Southern Christian villages; you claimed that communists are very popular in these villages; I am telling you this is not true. Now, you're telling me that most of the communists and communist martyrs are Christians; who said otherwise?
    3- I didn't say all of the Christians pretended to be communists, I said many claimed and many doesn't mean all.
    4- Please answer what I say not what you assumed that I said.
    I didnt claim anything. And never said communist are very popular in these areas..
    I said that communist could rappresent a good vote option for christians because it create a bridge with shia majority ..
    I never said that communist are majority among christians.but also i cannot say that no christians vote communist . I personally know many who are active members of comunist party from various christian towns in the south .
    Yes correct , bechara is from deir mimas , my error.. I used to know her dad , who worked in cola area in a supermarket of communist party , end on 80 's .
     

    gramsci

    Legendary Member
    utterly wrong. substantiate ur claim with evidence. the LCP has absolutely no support in the Christian south. the Christians in the south are like the Christians elsewhere in Lebanon, the LCP doesnt even register on their scale of allegiances.
    Since u are putting ur self in defence of the christians of the south..
    On 1987 a man from nabatieh , called " Elias chahine " , he was a devoute catholic , not communist and not affiliated to any party , living in his house in a quartier called " hay el rahbat " , was killed with his wife with cold blood by a commando of amal , leaded by a so called " zaki chokr " ( who by the way killed later in saida against palestinians).. During this period amal was haunting the communist militants and killing them.. But this catholic old man was not communist why he was killed ? Yalla ya shater . Go ask ur za3eem to bring justice to your christian brother .. And if he do so i will vote him with blind eyes.
     

    Abotareq93

    Legendary Member
    I didnt claim anything. And never said communist are very popular in these areas..
    I said that communist could rappresent a good vote option for christians because it create a bridge with shia majority ..
    I never said that communist are majority among christians.but also i cannot say that no christians vote communist . I personally know many who are active members of comunist party from various christian towns in the south .
    Yes correct , bechara is from deir mimas , my error.. I used to know her dad , who worked in cola area in a supermarket of communist party , end on 80 's .
    I am sorry @gramsci; I was answering @Randomizer. Sorry, I got confused between you and him. I apologize again.
     
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