Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Rashaya-West Bekaa district

eLad

eLad

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
Number of MPs: 6
1 Maronites
1 Orthodox
1 Shia
2 Sunnis
1 Druze


Voters: 140,950

Christians: 31,321
Shias: 20,689
Sunnis: 68,047
Druze : 20,534
Other: 359
 
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  • Tsunami27

    Tsunami27

    Well-Known Member
    I think that a list of FPM / LF / Abdulrahim / HA / LCP if formed can get easily 3 candidates elected, given that Christians participation is above 50% (considerable boost to the 30% that voted last time). There are different scenarios of the winning candidates, depending on preferential votes and their distribution. Abdulrahim and Ferzli are locked down. The third could be one of the following
    a) LF maronite candidate
    b) LCP candidate (they should pick his sect carefully. He can't be sunni cause FM will get the second seat. Cant be Shi3a cause HA wont vote for the list)
    c) Hezbollah's candidate if they unify their preferential votes

    On the other side, LF can also ally with FM and PSP to form a coalition that will also easily secure 3 candidates elected (ideally 1 sunni FM, 1 christian LF, and 1 druze PSP) and fight seriously for the 4th seat
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    I think that a list of FPM / LF / Abdulrahim / HA / LCP if formed can get easily 3 candidates elected, given that Christians participation is above 50% (considerable boost to the 30% that voted last time). There are different scenarios of the winning candidates, depending on preferential votes and their distribution. Abdulrahim and Ferzli are locked down. The third could be one of the following
    a) LF maronite candidate
    b) LCP candidate (they should pick his sect carefully. He can't be sunni cause FM will get the second seat. Cant be Shi3a cause HA wont vote for the list)
    c) Hezbollah's candidate if they unify their preferential votes

    On the other side, LF can also ally with FM and PSP to form a coalition that will also easily secure 3 candidates elected (ideally 1 sunni FM, 1 christian LF, and 1 druze PSP) and fight seriously for the 4th seat
    Will HA ally with LF?
    I think the LF will go with FM and PSP and take the three seats.
     
    Tsunami27

    Tsunami27

    Well-Known Member
    Will HA ally with LF?
    I think the LF will go with FM and PSP and take the three seats.
    I think that this will make more sense to LF unless FM insists on nominating Robert Ghanem while the LF decides to run with a pure LF candidate. They can only nominate the Maronite candidate cause the Orthodox one will already be Ferzli from the other list
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    I think that this will make more sense to LF unless FM insists on nominating Robert Ghanem while the LF decides to run with a pure LF candidate. They can only nominate the Maronite candidate cause the Orthodox one will already be Ferzli from the other list
    How do you know that Ferzli will be on the other list? We want to give him a good show for his money and place an Orthodox candidate also.
     
    Tsunami27

    Tsunami27

    Well-Known Member
    How do you know that Ferzli will be on the other list? We want to give him a good show for his money and place an Orthodox candidate also.
    No one would do that. The guy will get the most preferential votes among all candidates (maybe second most after Abdulrahim). It makes no sense for FPM to field another Orthodox. They can field a pure maronite FPMer if they want to
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    No one would do that. The guy will get the most preferential votes among all candidates (maybe second most after Abdulrahim). It makes no sense for FPM to field another Orthodox. They can field a pure maronite FPMer if they want to
    Does he have that much support in this district?
     
    JB81

    JB81

    Legendary Member
    الانباء: مراد سيترأس لائحة مدعومة من حزب الله والتيار الوطني
    السبت 28 تشرين الأول 2017 00:06سياسة
    أكدت مصادر صحيفة "الانباء" الكويتية أن "الوزير السابق عبدالرحيم مراد سيترأس لائحة في البقاع الغربي مدعومة من حزب الله والتيار الوطني وقوى أخرى، ومن المرجح لها أن تفوز بثلاثة مقاعد من أصل ستة، خصوصا في ظل البلبلة التي تسود أوساط تيار المستقبل في البقاع الغربي وكثرة المرشحين الذين يحسبون أنفسهم على تيار المستقبل".
    وأشارت المصادر الى أن "معركة الانتخابات النيابية المقبلة في البقاع الغربي ستتميز بكثافة الاقتراع لأن المنافسة ستكون قوية بين جبهتين تشكلان عمود هذه الدائرة، حيث وصلت نسبة الاقتراع فيها عام 2009 إلى 53% وهي نسبة اقتراع خفيفة بعدما بلغ عدد الناخبين 123000 ناخب ووصل عدد المقترعين إلى 65000 مقترع، وبرزت الكتلة السنية في دائرة البقاع الغربي - راشيا لتصل إلى 49%، دروز وشيعة 14.6%، روم أرثوذكس وموارنة 7.8%، وقد حصد تحالف تيار المستقبل وحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي في العام 2009: 34000 صوت في مقابل تحالف أمل وحزب الله والفرزلي ومراد الذي حصد 27000 صوت، لكن في هذه المرحلة ما قبل الانتخابات المقبلة ترى المصادر أن تحالف "أمل - حزب الله - مراد – الفرزلي" زاد تأثيره".
    ورجحت المصادر أن "يعود مراد إلى البرلمان اللبناني بتأييد شعبي استطاع أن يعززه من خلال مؤسساته، الا أن أحد حلفاء مراد الذي خرج من التحالف معه وهو د.محمد القرعاوي ينوي تشكيل لائحة ثالثة لمواجهة حليفه السابق مراد وصديقه الجديد تيار المستقبل".
     
    C

    California Republic

    New Member
    Does he have that much support in this district?
    he is the strongest among christens besides tayyar there

    they got the majority of Christians votes back in 2009, I think about 58%
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    he is the strongest among christens besides tayyar there

    they got the majority of Christians votes back in 2009, I think about 58%
    7abibe Ferzli only got 51% of the Orthodox vote in 2009 and only 34% voted. The shia upped their voters to 70% participation rate. We need to do the same and this district will be one to look at.
    FPM or LF should also field a maronite candidate in the face of Ghanem.
     
    C

    California Republic

    New Member
    In this district and for the Christians, there are several main players, FPM and Elie Farzeli with a certain presence of Robert Ghanem and the LF (at the part of the Maronites)

    LF here is less than Zahla and Baablek

    FPM and Elie Al-Farzli are able to achieve the goal (as PMA candidate)

    A list with LF also is benefitial but I think Ghanem will make it unless there ia a strong alliance with FM
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    In this district and for the Christians, there are several main players, FPM and Elie Farzeli with a certain presence of Robert Ghanem and the LF (at the part of the Maronites)

    LF here is less than Zahla and Baablek

    FPM and Elie Al-Farzli are able to achieve the goal (as PMA candidate)

    A list with LF also is benefitial but I think Ghanem will make it unless there ia a strong alliance with FM
    Then FPM goes for a maronite candidate and Elie Ferzli. Both are added to the block. Or what happens IF the christian participation is above 50% and LF goes kameina ma3 WJ? Can they get 2 seats? We don't want Ghanem ba2a.
     
    C

    California Republic

    New Member
    It is not ruled out that the Tayyar and Eli Farzaly will ally with Abdulrahim Murad, Faisal AlDaoud , will have the power to secure 3 seats, but ruled out the possibility of more than one Christian seat

    The alliance with FM is able to get 4 seats
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    It is not ruled out that the Tayyar and Eli Farzaly will ally with Abdulrahim Murad, Faisal AlDaoud , will have the power to secure 3 seats, but ruled out the possibility of more than one Christian seat

    The alliance with FM is able to get 4 seats
    4 seats but more than one christian seat?
    The christian seat in for Elie or another candidate?
     
    C

    California Republic

    New Member
    4 seats but more than one christian seat?
    The christian seat in for Elie or another candidate?

    Certainly is not another Sunni seat because Murad will win through his size and the preferential votes, Elie Ferzli with Tayyar will win

    WJ is likely with FM, competing Faisal AlDawood for the Druze seat using the weapon of preferential votes

    I think the fourth seat is either Maronite or Shiite
     
    C

    California Republic

    New Member
    In general, Tayyar/Ellie with Murad and Faisal may allow us two Christian seats. Because the FPM preferential votes will be directed towards the Maronite seat, and the Ferzli has sufficient votes for the Orthodox seat but it is not easy
     
    TayyarBeino

    TayyarBeino

    Legendary Member
    عقد رئيس "التيار الوطني الحر" وزير الخارجية والمغتربين جبران باسيل سلسلة لقاءات في المقر العام لـ"التيار"، والتقى الوزير السابق عبد الرحيم مراد، الذي لفت الى أن "اللقاء تطرق الى الانتخابات، ونحن سعداء بأنه تم توقيع مرسوم دعوة الهيئات الناخبة، ولا مبرر لأي تشكيك في هذا الموضوع. لقد تداولنا ايضا في الانتخابات في دول الاغتراب، وتحدد 29 نيسان المقبل موعدا لاقتراع المغتربين، الذين نتمنى عليهم الإقبال على الاقتراع بكثافة"، موضحا أنه "على الصعيد المحلي، أصبح الأمر واضحا أن التحالفات لن تكون ثابتة في كل الدوائر، ونتمنى للجميع التوفيق والتعاون المستمر سواء أكان قبل الانتخابات ام بعدها".
     
    TayyarBeino

    TayyarBeino

    Legendary Member
    نجل أمين عام لحزب الله مرشّح

    علم "ليبانون ديبايت" أنّ نجل الأمين العام السابق لحزب الله عباس الموسوي ويدعى ياسر قد اختير للترشّح ضمن لوائح الحزب في منطقة البقاع الشمالي. إشارة إلى أنّ حزب الله وحركة أمل يخوضان المعركة في البقاع الشمالي متحالِفَين.

    وسيُرشح الحزب أربعة أشخاص بينهم الموسوي واللواء جميل السيّد بينما الحركة ستُرشّح شخصًا واحدًا. وينضم إليهم المرشح عن المقعد الكاثوليكي الوزير والنائب السابق ألبير منصور.

    رادار موقع ليبانون ديبايت
    2018 -كانون الثاني -2
     
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