Parliamentary elections 2018 Elections: Tyr-Zahrani district

[eLad]

Number of MPs: 7
1 Catholic
6 Shias


Voters: 297,979

Christians: 37,369
Shias: 238,853
Sunnis: 20,732
Druze : 68
Alawis: 19
Other: 938

 

[Placebo]

Number of MPs: 7
1 Catholic
6 Shias


Voters: 297,979

Christians: 37,369
Shias: 238,853
Sunnis: 20,732
Druze : 68
Alawis: 19
Other: 938

An alliance in this district against HA/AMAL can easily snatch 1, even 2, Mps.
Will anybody dare to field full lists though?

 

[!Aoune32]

An alliance in this district against HA/AMAL can easily snatch 1, even 2, Mps.
Will anybody dare to field full lists though?

The LF, FM and FPM if they go together they can easily snatch 2 seats. 57K sunni and christian numbers are quiet a bit.

 

[!Aoune32]

@Randomiser at least two seats can be taken away from this district. what would you have preferred?

 

[Randomiser]

@Randomiser at least two seats can be taken away from this district. what would you have preferred?

Assuming that All Christians and Sunnis in this district are going to 'vote' against Amal for FPM/LF/FM Alliance along with Shia 'opposition' is a very false.

The turnout is much pretty high compared to the national average under the majoritiarn system where all results were already known(90% for Amal/HA), what do you think would happen when there is a sort of competition?

Nabih Berri is not an idiot, he'll find away to grab the Christian votes by having influential Christian figure in his list...

The 'opposition' vote will split between many lists, and I'm sure there will be 'dummy' lists just to split the Christian/Sunni/Shia 'opposition' vote even more.

 

[!Aoune32]

Assuming that All Christians and Sunnis in this district are going to 'vote' against Amal for FPM/LF/FM Alliance along with Shia 'opposition' is a very false.

The turnout is much pretty high compared to the national average under the majoritiarn system where all results were already known(90% for Amal/HA), what do you think would happen when there is a sort of competition?

Nabih Berri is not an idiot, he'll find away to grab the Christian votes by having influential Christian figure in his list...

The 'opposition' vote will split between many lists, and I'm sure there will be 'dummy' lists just to split the Christian/Sunni/Shia 'opposition' vote even more.

We could have placed Zahrani with Saida and Jezzine with Tyre?

 

[Randomiser]

We could have placed Zahrani with Saida and Jezzine with Tyre?

Put them with the rest of 'deep' South, HA/Amal were always calling for large districts and I don't see a reason for them to 'divide' their "stronghold" into smaller districts if they really wanted PR on large districts.

 

[!Aoune32]

South Lebanon’s Second District: Christian voters have increased by 5.9%, Muslim voters by 22%

The number of Christian registered voters in South Lebanon’s Second District has increased from 35,142 in 2009 to 37,239 in 2017, i.e. by 5.9%. Maronite voters have increased by 7.3% and Greek Catholic voters by 3.4%. As for Muslim voters, they have increased from 213,448 in 2009 to 260,459 in 2017 (22%) as Sunni voters increased by 21.9% and Shia’a voters by 22%.

 

[!Aoune32]

FPM should field a candidate in this district. I reckon if FPM and FM ally they can snatch the catholic seat in this district. They are 1/6 of the vote.

 

[Abotareq93]

FPM should field a candidate in this district. I reckon if FPM and FM ally they can snatch the catholic seat in this district. They are 1/6 of the vote.

FM don't have significant votes in this district; there are almost no Sunnis. But if FPM and LF ally in this district, they might get one 7assel but I think this would be extremely difficult

 

[!Aoune32]

FM don't have significant votes in this district; there are almost no Sunnis. But if FPM and LF ally in this district, they might get one 7assel but I think this would be extremely difficult

Sunnis have 20K votes with the LF and FPM they should get it easy.

 

[Abotareq93]

Sunnis have 20K votes with the LF and FPM they should get it easy.

20000 votes where excatly? In which villages or cities?

 

[!Aoune32]

20000 votes where excatly? In which villages or cities?

I dont know the area well but the first post it says 20K sunni votes. So with FM easy the catholic seat.

 

[Abotareq93]

I dont know the area well but the first post it says 20K sunni votes. So with FM easy the catholic seat.

OK, so, if 60% of the voters participated, the 7assel would be 25500. If 60% of the Christian and Sunni voters participated and if all of these votes went to one list, the list they support will get 34000 votes which is 1.3 7assel which means one seat. But, this is impossible as many Christians and Sunnis will vote for Berri's list. I apologize, what I said was inaccurate; even if LF and FPM ally, they won't get the 7assel. By the way 60% is a very optimistic rate of participation.

 

[!Aoune32]

OK, so, if 60% of the voters participated, the 7assel would be 25500. If 60% of the Christian and Sunni voters participated and if all of these votes went to one list, the list they support will get 34000 votes which is 1.3 7assel which means one seat. But, this is impossible as many Christians and Sunnis will vote for Berri's list. I apologize, what I said was inaccurate; even if LF and FPM ally, they won't get the 7assel. By the way 60% is a very optimistic rate of participation.

Thanks
It is worth a fight. Why should we just give it to Berri heike??? He wants to fight us for the shia seat in Jbeil we should fight him in Marjeyoun and Zahrani.

 

[!Aoune32]

Aslan how many christians vote in this district??? Eno 25% la2ano bya3erfo l natije salaf. We need to go all out and let the duo work for their MPs. In the other districts the LCP should ally with FPM and take a seat or two. If played properly this shia duo should take out of 27 shia MPs 23 max. Maybe now a fairer law and FPM we could get one seat in this district. It is worth a shot.

 

[Abotareq93]

Thanks
It is worth a fight. Why should we just give it to Berri heike??? He wants to fight us for the shia seat in Jbeil we should fight him in Marjeyoun and Zahrani.

I agree with you; if I were Bassil, I would ally with LF and FM and make a list in both districts

 

[!Aoune32]

I agree with you; if I were Bassil, I would ally with LF and FM and make a list in both districts

100% and we tell Hariri we support his list in Minnieh/Dinnieh, Tripoli and Akkar also Beirut II has 50K christians. 1 candidate FPM Zahrani and 1 candidate Marjeyoun. At least give them a hard time even if we lose.

 

[Abotareq93]

100% and we tell Hariri we support his list in Minnieh/Dinnieh, Tripoli and Akkar also Beirut II has 50K christians. 1 candidate FPM Zahrani and 1 candidate Marjeyoun. At least give them a hard time even if we lose.

I think there is already an FPM Orthodox candidate in Marjeyoun- Hasbaya- Nabatiyeh- Bent Jbeil; his name is Shadi Massaad. But I am not sure if this is final and if he has any chances to beat Assaad Hardane

 

[!Aoune32]

We need to make a full list in this district. Even if 50% participate and half the sunnis and christians we could win the catholic seat. If no one wants to go with the LCP they can form a list by themselves and have a battle with the shia duo.