Number of MPs: 7
1 Catholic
6 Shias
Voters: 297,979
Christians: 37,369
Shias: 238,853
Sunnis: 20,732
Druze : 68
Alawis: 19
Other: 938
An alliance in this district against HA/AMAL can easily snatch 1, even 2, Mps.
Will anybody dare to field full lists though?
@Randomiser at least two seats can be taken away from this district. what would you have preferred?
Assuming that All Christians and Sunnis in this district are going to 'vote' against Amal for FPM/LF/FM Alliance along with Shia 'opposition' is a very false.
The turnout is much pretty high compared to the national average under the majoritiarn system where all results were already known(90% for Amal/HA), what do you think would happen when there is a sort of competition?
Nabih Berri is not an idiot, he'll find away to grab the Christian votes by having influential Christian figure in his list...
The 'opposition' vote will split between many lists, and I'm sure there will be 'dummy' lists just to split the Christian/Sunni/Shia 'opposition' vote even more.
We could have placed Zahrani with Saida and Jezzine with Tyre?
FPM should field a candidate in this district. I reckon if FPM and FM ally they can snatch the catholic seat in this district. They are 1/6 of the vote.
FM don't have significant votes in this district; there are almost no Sunnis. But if FPM and LF ally in this district, they might get one 7assel but I think this would be extremely difficult
Sunnis have 20K votes with the LF and FPM they should get it easy.
20000 votes where excatly? In which villages or cities?
I dont know the area well but the first post it says 20K sunni votes. So with FM easy the catholic seat.
OK, so, if 60% of the voters participated, the 7assel would be 25500. If 60% of the Christian and Sunni voters participated and if all of these votes went to one list, the list they support will get 34000 votes which is 1.3 7assel which means one seat. But, this is impossible as many Christians and Sunnis will vote for Berri's list. I apologize, what I said was inaccurate; even if LF and FPM ally, they won't get the 7assel. By the way 60% is a very optimistic rate of participation.
Thanks
It is worth a fight. Why should we just give it to Berri heike??? He wants to fight us for the shia seat in Jbeil we should fight him in Marjeyoun and Zahrani.
I agree with you; if I were Bassil, I would ally with LF and FM and make a list in both districts
100% and we tell Hariri we support his list in Minnieh/Dinnieh, Tripoli and Akkar also Beirut II has 50K christians. 1 candidate FPM Zahrani and 1 candidate Marjeyoun. At least give them a hard time even if we lose.