First Government formation under President Aoun - updates and discussions

[lebnan_lilkel]

Many bumps ahead. HA delivered PMAs the Promise and debt from 2006. They want March 8 to have 1/3. FPM are not March 8 especially when United with LF.

 

[Indie]

Many bumps ahead. HA delivered PMAs the Promise and debt from 2006. They want March 8 to have 1/3. FPM are not March 8 especially when United with LF.

There is no M8 or M14 anymore. And if you think about it, there never really was. Just temporary and shifting alliances.

 

[lebnan_lilkel]

There is no M8 or M14 anymore. And if you think about it, there never really was. Just temporary and shifting alliances.

March 8 is still the same. Nothing changed. March 14 was fake and over. FPM was never March 8.

 

[loubnaniTO]

March 8 is still the same. Nothing changed. March 14 was fake and over. FPM was never March 8.

in what sense M8 could be a "coalition" if they couldn't agree on one candidate, and went divided to parliament... then one main M8 party says they will be with Hariri come hell or high water (aka bilsarra2 waldarrat), and the other main party hates Hariri cause he calls them terrorists.
Not sure what they agree nowadays, except for fighting Israel and going to Syria to defend Assad.. .otherwise, not sure what their agenda is.

 

[oldschool]

I think now there is:

- fm and lf with good relations with fpm
- fpm and tashnag
- berri w frafito w hezballa aam yseyro with good relations with fpm

 

[revolution425]

I think PMA alone is a good damani in any 7okomi so that is not an issue, the issue will be berri who carries significant leverage.
Also not sure how much everyone will be invested in a 7okomi that is so short lived? unless the same formation carries in the government after elections

 

[lebnan_lilkel]

in what sense M8 could be a "coalition" if they couldn't agree on one candidate, and went divided to parliament... then one main M8 party says they will be with Hariri come hell or high water (aka bilsarra2 waldarrat), and the other main party hates Hariri cause he calls them terrorists.
Not sure what they agree nowadays, except for fighting Israel and going to Syria to defend Assad.. .otherwise, not sure what their agenda is.

HA broke March 8 s pact for PMA. HA always said it was debt. However, HA cannot agree with FPM on many many issues. Starting with Berri, their weapons, Syria, etc... . They will make sure these issues are on the PM's list otherwise they may not participate. interesting times ahead.
SF said that "elkhat" won but he was referring to March 8. If HA and Berri split, then March 8 is history and Berri and SH will form a new alliance.

 

[lebnan_lilkel]

There is no M8 or M14 anymore. And if you think about it, there never really was. Just temporary and shifting alliances.

March 8 and FPM had a temporary alliance. I agree. The others were always in the same group/front and for a long time. Jumbo will be less neutral and more March 8 inclined. He sees the Christians as a threat.

 

[JB81]

FPM/Aoun will become wasateh with tashnack 7 ministers, can rely on LF(2) or HA(2) in different cases to have 8 +, Jumblatt 2 ministers, LF FM and others M14, HA Berri and others M8

 

[HannaTheCrusader]

Heseb will not nominate hairiri, they will say we have no nominee
Berri might nominate him
Most other MPs will nominate hariri

 

[JB81]

Heseb will not nominate hairiri, they will say we have no nominee
Berri might nominate him
Most other MPs will nominate hariri

HA may not, but don't forget that both parties have talks regardless of public and hostile statements of FM. So don't count HA out. After all, it is in best interest of HA to build bridges with all parties, FM and the Sunnis in particular

 

[HannaTheCrusader]

HA may not, but don't forget that both parties have talks regardless of public and hostile statements of FM. So don't count HA out. After all, it is in best interest of HA to build bridges with all parties, FM and the Sunnis in particular

Am not making judgments , all I said the info I got tonight

Is kike Heseb wants to take a wait and look posture. Understandable

 

[elAshtar]

I think PMA alone is a good damani in any 7okomi so that is not an issue, the issue will be berri who carries significant leverage.
Also not sure how much everyone will be invested in a 7okomi that is so short lived? unless the same formation carries in the government after elections

You never know for how long this government would last in a country like Lebanon. And Aoun assurances alone are not enough.

 

[elAshtar]

in what sense M8 could be a "coalition" if they couldn't agree on one candidate, and went divided to parliament... then one main M8 party says they will be with Hariri come hell or high water (aka bilsarra2 waldarrat), and the other main party hates Hariri cause he calls them terrorists.
Not sure what they agree nowadays, except for fighting Israel and going to Syria to defend Assad.. .otherwise, not sure what their agenda is.

M8 is still there when it is related to regional politics and Lebanon identity. internally, it's FPM, HA and LF against FM Berri and Juju

 

[elAshtar]

Amazing Gebran
he now beats Berri in pulling rabbits from his hat

Hahaha
How do you think he convinced FM and LF. smma3 kel wahad me baddo yesma3o
Only Berri knows how to deal with him. he told Aoun to come to Ein el tine without bassil. (Jannat el atfal .. manazelohom )

 

[elAshtar]

Honestly what is your problem with that statement? Please don't mention past statements. All parties have their fair share of making accusations and turning on them.

This statement by Bassil is very good for the country interest. We need to get our institutions up and running again.

Bassil is the worst thing that ever happened to tayyar. He is responsible for the sectarian speech. It affected many FPMers really bad that they stopped using their brains.

 

[elAshtar]

HA may not, but don't forget that both parties have talks regardless of public and hostile statements of FM. So don't count HA out. After all, it is in best interest of HA to build bridges with all parties, FM and the Sunnis in particular

These were never serious talks. there is no reason for HA to nominate Saad. And if they do, although I doubt it, they will only declare that if Berri reached an agreement with Sa3uda.

 

[elAshtar]

أبو زيد لـ"المركزية": حكومة وحدة وطنية اذا أمكن والتشكيل لن يتأخر ومن مُدّد له لن يبقى في موقعه لكن القرار للحكومة والرئيس​

.. jdeed abu zaid bel maselha. He need to gain some experience

 

[elAshtar]

It seems Berri might demand the 1/3 of the government (without counting aoun and fpm ministers).

Is that reasonable/feasible?

That's HA demand as well.

 

[elAshtar]

The problem I see in the formation of new government is this... will HA agree to have ministers in a government where their Prime Minister is attacking them left and right, calls them terrorists, and is adamantly against their involvement in Syria?
and if they do not participate, what would Amal do then? will they participate without HA? and if they don't, will we have a non-MITHAKYE government?

This is not important. there are more important demands. as for the Methaqeyya, you need to ask Bassilio . I would expect him saying something like: well, we nominated them but they refused, it's their fault.
And that would be the worst thing he can do to his father in law .
Most likely and for the good of everyone, they will reach an agreement with Berri.