Geographical Representation in 2018 Elections

Aoune32!

Aoune32!

Well-Known Member
I would like to look closer at the geographical distribution of parties across the whole map and how the christian parties have a bigger span across the map federalism will sure fail.

1568590283768.png

The only way for the christians to have federalism is that there is major christian displacement in the 'atraf' and they come further inwards into mount lebanon.
 
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  • Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    This is the geographical distribution.
    1568590406964.png

    As we can see that FPM and LF have a larger distribution across the whole country than its muslim counterparts.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Let us stat with FPM.

    So this is their distribution. You can see in 2009 they had 11 party members and 16 non-party members. In 2009 most of the FPM party members were in Mount Lebanon region + Jezzine. The rest were non party members like Emile Rahmeh in Baalbeck and Franjiyeh and co in Zgharta. They have virtually no representation in Beirut, Akkar, Zahle or the South or the North 4 christian districts.

    1568590694518.png

    In 2018 FPM has now 18 members with 11 non-members. So it has flipped if one might say with representation in Zahle, Akkar, West Bekaa, Christian north district and Beirut. Work needs to be done more in the South and Baalbeck. FPM reliance on non-members also went from from 16 in 2009.

    FPM is the leading party which its distribution covers the whole map or most of it. FPM won representation in 11 districts.

    So outside Mount Lebanon FPM now has representation in West Bekaa, Zahle, the Christian 4 districts, Akkar and even Beirut 1 and Beirut 2.
     
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    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Next is FM.

    Their geographical distribution is as follows.

    Party members in 2009 were 27 members with 7 non-members. Due to them having a sunni majority in Akkar they took 6 seats. The sunni in Akkar are 65% of the constituent. No other sect could be represented in Akkar as the election law was majority.

    1568591308601.png

    In 2018 you can see they now have 13 members and 7 non-members. They got absolutely hammered by this law. In 2009 they had 26.5% of the Parliament in 2018 15.6% of the Parliament. They lost about 10% of the representation in Parliament. Huge loss by FM. With the sunnis leading the sects in Zahle they were only able to place 1 sunni figure in it which leads me to believe that alot of those that gained citizenship in 94 didn't come and vote. The FM geographical span in the country is in a few districts.

    Beirut II, Tripoli-Minnieh-Dinnieh, Akkar, Zahle, West Bekaa, Chouf, Saida and now has entered Baalbeck. No representation in Mount Lebanon nor the South except for Saida and now no representation in Beirut 1 and none in the CHRISTIAN North District where as in 2009 they had 2 from Al-Koura. FM won seats in 8 districts.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Then Amal is an interesting one.

    In 2009 their strongold is in the South no doubt about that. In 2009 they had 1 member in Baalbeck, 1 in Beirut 2 and the rest in the South. 8 members and 5 non-members.



    1568592083233.png

    In 2018 their geographic distribution increased snatching one in Baabda, one in West Bekaa and one in Jezzine. As you can see 2 in christian majority districts and 1 in a majority sunni district. The 8 members in 2009 became 11 members in 2018 and 6 non-members. Amal is represented in 7 districts.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Now comes the LF and this is the point of the thread. The two christian parties have wide representation across the whole map and will be the most affected by federalism IF they weren't transferred to Mount Lebanon.

    1568592538463.png

    The LF in 2009 had 8 members and no reliance on non-members. In 2018 it extended its reach and relied on 2 non-members.
    The 2 in Baalbeck-Hermel is incorrect it is 1.

    But in 2009 they had no representation in Mount Lebanon, none in Beirut, none in Baalbeck-Hermel, none in Akkar. In 2018 they received 1 in Baalbeck-Hermel, 1 in Aley-Chouf, 1 in Baabda, 2 Jbeil-Keserwen, 1 in Akkar and 2 in Beirut. The representation of the party in Mount Lebanon is 6 and in 2009 it was 0. Their geographical distribution is the second leading party AFTER FPM.
    They are represented in 9 districts.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    HA

    1568593081878.png

    In 2009 11 for HA. 9 members and 2-non members. Their biggest representation is in Baalbeck. It looks like there is a trade-off between Berri and HA. HA to get most in Baalbeck for Amal to get most of the South. In 2018 HA received 13 increasing his share mainly in Zahle and Beirut.
    He lost 1 in Baalbeck-Hermel and one in Baabda to Amal. HA representation is in 6 districts.
     
    Mockinggbird

    Mockinggbird

    New Member
    HA

    View attachment 13440

    In 2009 11 for HA. 9 members and 2-non members. Their biggest representation is in Baalbeck. It looks like there is a trade-off between Berri and HA. HA to get most in Baalbeck for Amal to get most of the South. In 2018 HA received 13 increasing his share mainly in Zahle and Beirut.
    He lost 1 in Baalbeck-Hermel and one in Baabda to Amal. HA representation is in 6 districts.
    It would be interesting to see the percentages of each party by municipality
    FPM should identify the white spaces and plan for next elections
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    It would be interesting to see the percentages of each party by municipality
    FPM should identify the white spaces and plan for next elections
    Each party has its max in the elections especially the muslims. Look at the map of HA and Amal there is no expanding from there only losing seats. They won all their shia seats.

    FPM can expand 1-2 seats and can lose alot also. They have 29 MPs with LF 15 that is 44. Kataeb 3.
    47 MPs which means that there is still 17 Mps outside the parties i.e Marada, SSNP, Mikati 2, etc etc.
     
    Lebmonage

    Lebmonage

    Legendary Member
    I would like to look closer at the geographical distribution of parties across the whole map and how the christian parties have a bigger span across the map federalism will sure fail.

    View attachment 13434

    The only way for the christians to have federalism is that there is major christian displacement in the 'atraf' and they come further inwards into mount lebanon.
    Wlak the Mount Lebanon you keep singing about was at a historical point a Shia homeland, before the Shia were displaced by the Mamluks from the North and Mount Lebanon and joined their coreligionists in Jabal Amel for refuge. Countless Shia families converted into Maronite Christianity.

    This forum is filled up with bigots who are idle with abundant time to spew BS.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Wlak the Mount Lebanon you keep singing about was at a historical point a Shia homeland, before the Shia were displaced by the Mamluks from the North and Mount Lebanon and joined their coreligionists in Jabal Amel for refuge. Countless Shia families converted into Maronite Christianity.

    This forum is filled up with bigots who are idle with abundant time to spew BS.
    7abibe was, had, has, is. i am looking at the geographical representation of all the sects on the map. your post was something done 50000 years ago. get over it. ur not a special sect. same as the rest.
     
    Lebmonage

    Lebmonage

    Legendary Member
    7abibe was, had, has, is. i am looking at the geographical representation of all the sects on the map. your post was something done 50000 years ago. get over it. ur not a special sect. same as the rest.
    The most special sect; the truest Lebanese of the land...the sect that has most indigenous ties to the land and with other Lebanese... Conversions have happened both into it and out of it with other communities. The Shia held sway at a time (in the 11th and 12th centuries) from Tripoli and Donniye in the North to Keserwan and Jbeil in Mount Lebanon to Jabal Amel in the South and the Bekaa in the East. The Sunni caliphate, vis a vis the Mamluks and the Takfiri fatwas of Ibn Taymiyyah (the father of wahhabism/salafism) caused harm in ethnic cleansing certain regions of its Shia presence. The Maronites benefitted the most from the Sunni caliphate treatment of the Shia, as the Maronites replaced the Shia and dominated in Mount Lebanon after the expulsion. The same Mount Lebanon the extremist sectarianists of the Maronite sect like to boast about and think its their birthright and the "original Lebanon". That "original Lebanon" is the origin of some others whom you want to exclude when calling for your wet dream federalism.

    We can get over it...but for some people who have always talked about muhajjareen and there is a ministry of the displaced, we can as well go back and talk about the ancient muhajjreen.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    The most special sect; the truest Lebanese of the land...the sect that has most indigenous ties to the land and with other Lebanese... Conversions have happened both into it and out of it with other communities. The Shia held sway at a time (in the 11th and 12th centuries) from Tripoli and Donniye in the North to Keserwan and Jbeil in Mount Lebanon to Jabal Amel in the South and the Bekaa in the East. The Sunni caliphate, vis a vis the Mamluks and the Takfiri fatwas of Ibn Taymiyyah (the father of wahhabism/salafism) caused harm in ethnic cleansing certain regions of its Shia presence. The Maronites benefitted the most from the Sunni caliphate treatment of the Shia, as the Maronites replaced the Shia and dominated in Mount Lebanon after the expulsion. The same Mount Lebanon the extremist sectarianists of the Maronite sect like to boast about and think its their birthright and the "original Lebanon". That "original Lebanon" is the origin of some others whom you want to exclude when calling for your wet dream federalism.

    We can get over it...but for some people who have always talked about muhajjareen and there is a ministry of the displaced, we can as well go back and talk about the ancient muhajjreen.
    your post is all bullshit. Get over urself. 2eltelak minnak a special sect. same as the rest. read what i said before u type. i said due to the christians all over the land federalism will fail. i for once in my life am thinking that the country needs to go to Syria as it is a failed state. Get ur head of ur sect and my sect w heik osas. Ur sect arent special bro. Also ur hate for your maronite bros in the country get over it. what is done was done no one can change it.
     
    Frisbeetarian

    Frisbeetarian

    Legendary Member
    Federalism will invariably fail. Now a state that encompasses Lebanon and Syria that I can get behind. The ultimate goal being the unification of Lebanon, Syria, Palestine and Jordan and the creation of a West Asian coalition a la EU encompassing Turkey, Iran, our newly created nation, Egypt, Iraq and Armenia.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Federalism will invariably fail. Now a state that encompasses Lebanon and Syria that I can get behind. The ultimate goal being the unification of Lebanon, Syria, Palestine and Jordan and the creation of a West Asian coalition a la EU encompassing Turkey, Iran, our newly created nation, Egypt, Iraq and Armenia.
    Keep dreaming. :)
    Lebanon and Syria 2al the SSNP. You must be in the same fish tank as our defense minister.
     
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