Hassan Diab Government [IMF Negotiations Officially Underway]

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  • Nonan

    Nonan

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Not intra party quarreling, Aoun is telling the government to act but he is not part of the revising the numbers.
    Deciding what the lost numbers are is key to what haircut is to be taken who gets the haircut, According to Kanaan the government is underestimating the loss so that the haircut could be bigger on small investors and he does not agree with it. It is probably true that the government might be sleeping with the bankers as people are Maurice Sehnaoui are advising the government on what to do, it is not like he is a third party, there is conflict of interest when a banker advices the government on how much his haircut will be.
    It is true the president is pushing the government but these numbers are key for any future solution and what the IMF will give if they give any.
    You got it all wrong Kan3an is saying the government overestimated the losses. He’s siding with the banks trying to hide the losses and ultimately shift some of the them to the depositors instead of the shareholders (ie bank owners)
     
    Walidos

    Walidos

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    You got it all wrong Kan3an is saying the government overestimated the losses. He’s siding with the banks trying to hide the losses and ultimately shift some of the them to the depositors instead of the shareholders (ie bank owners)
    Not entirely accurate. He is not underestimating the losses, he is proposing the government doesn’t default on debt which is due in 2027... think of it this way:
    The government needs to cover say 80 billion dollars if debt. It defaults on 100% its current loans: it gets its entire support package from the IMF, or a mix of IMF and donor states if any... the banks bear heavy losses ( I doubt they would lend the state anymore).
    Or it defaults on all loans till 2027, say 60 billion, it then needs less from the IMF. The positive in that view is the banks would still likely be happy to lend the state if needed in the future, and the impact on the average jo, though Tough, is eased vs the first scenario.

    the downside is that there is less incentive for the state to make radical reforms and it is easier for the political mafia to reverse the situation back to siphoning funds if they win elections (which their media machines are working hard to secure).
     
    oldschool

    oldschool

    Active Member
    ^ the other downside is if you don’t erase that debt now, way less people will lend you money as your economy and banks and everyone will be burdened by that future debt.

    Think about it, if you know a person owes a shitload of money in a few years, would you give them money now knowing he has other debts to repay?

    So basically the economy will not restart and will do so very slowly, the banks will still have that debt on their sheets so they’ll be zombie banks anyway, and in the end they will repay depositors in worthless lebanese lira and get away from it like that and the people will be ****ed.

    Kanaan is beinn a pompous idiot and so is Alain aoun. Now we all know why aoun chose gebran as head of the party.
     
    The_FPMer

    The_FPMer

    Active Member
    ^ the other downside is if you don’t erase that debt now, way less people will lend you money as your economy and banks and everyone will be burdened by that future debt.

    Think about it, if you know a person owes a shitload of money in a few years, would you give them money now knowing he has other debts to repay?

    So basically the economy will not restart and will do so very slowly, the banks will still have that debt on their sheets so they’ll be zombie banks anyway, and in the end they will repay depositors in worthless lebanese lira and get away from it like that and the people will be ****ed.

    Kanaan is beinn a pompous idiot and so is Alain aoun. Now we all know why aoun chose gebran as head of the party.
    But Gebran should be able to control them if he's against their actions.
     
    Nonan

    Nonan

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Not entirely accurate. He is not underestimating the losses, he is proposing the government doesn’t default on debt which is due in 2027... think of it this way:
    The government needs to cover say 80 billion dollars if debt. It defaults on 100% its current loans: it gets its entire support package from the IMF, or a mix of IMF and donor states if any... the banks bear heavy losses ( I doubt they would lend the state anymore).
    Or it defaults on all loans till 2027, say 60 billion, it then needs less from the IMF. The positive in that view is the banks would still likely be happy to lend the state if needed in the future, and the impact on the average jo, though Tough, is eased vs the first scenario.

    the downside is that there is less incentive for the state to make radical reforms and it is easier for the political mafia to reverse the situation back to siphoning funds if they win elections (which their media machines are working hard to secure).
    What is not true? If you artificially lessen the losses then the shareholders artificially inflate their net worth. Given that the money is indeed lost, you are de facto transferring value to the shareholders, who have earned billions of inflated interest rates over the years, at the expense of the economy of the country. There is a reason why, after every financial crisis, all economists, serious ones, not pseudo charlatans like ken3an, advocate for bad banks taking on all bad assets and liquidating them separately, allowing for the”good banks” to start fresh.
    Honestly just listen to Bifani’s interview. Super clear. It was posted here a few pages ago.
    As I said many times, Kan3an has lost any shred of credibility in my view, and his A$$hole attitude does not help either.
     
    Walidos

    Walidos

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    What is not true? If you artificially lessen the losses then the shareholders artificially inflate their net worth. Given that the money is indeed lost, you are de facto transferring value to the shareholders, who have earned billions of inflated interest rates over the years, at the expense of the economy of the country. There is a reason why, after every financial crisis, all economists, serious ones, not pseudo charlatans like ken3an, advocate for bad banks taking on all bad assets and liquidating them separately, allowing for the”good banks” to start fresh.
    Honestly just listen to Bifani’s interview. Super clear. It was posted here a few pages ago.
    As I said many times, Kan3an has lost any shred of credibility in my view, and his A$$hole attitude does not help either.
    You are still not getting it... and quite emotional I should add... it’s not artificial anything, it’s a different approach. If you don’t agree with it’s absolutely fine, I have told you earlier I also don’t agree that Kanaan’s approach is the right one... but ma badda hal2ad.
     
    Red Phoenix

    Red Phoenix

    Legendary Member
    tayyar will lose votes but its nothing like the catastrophic scenarios some people are imagining, especially if gma is still alive.
    the sectarian side of things is very underestimated and the fear/hate that the communities feel towards each other is far bigger than it looks like.

    so ma tsenn ktir snenak 3ala fpm or fm or anal or any other party.
    fpm lost all its allies

    if they can win sa7ten 3a albo la bassil

    but i wont be putting my money on it this time
     
    Manifesto

    Manifesto

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    You are still not getting it... and quite emotional I should add... it’s not artificial anything, it’s a different approach. If you don’t agree with it’s absolutely fine, I have told you earlier I also don’t agree that Kanaan’s approach is the right one... but ma badda hal2ad.
    Eh ma badda hal add... the country is on the brink of collapse and the IMF is warning that it won't tolerate further stalling on reforms, but Mr. Kanaan is more interested in inflating his ego and proving that his theory is the correct one.

    Do you hear what you're saying, little Willy?
     
    Walidos

    Walidos

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Eh ma badda hal add... the country is on the brink of collapse and the IMF is warning that it won't tolerate further stalling on reforms, but Mr. Kanaan is more interested in inflating his ego and proving that his theory is the correct one.

    Do you hear what you're saying, little Willy?
    Inta go hate on Gebran Bassil, ma kharjak serious debates :lol:
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    You are still not getting it... and quite emotional I should add... it’s not artificial anything, it’s a different approach. If you don’t agree with it’s absolutely fine, I have told you earlier I also don’t agree that Kanaan’s approach is the right one... but ma badda hal2ad.
    It is also based on an exchange rate so that changes the number depending what rate you choose. Also IMF is saying its numbers are closer to gov than to parliament that means there is no absoute number, indeed different approaches provide different numbers.


    Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni told local newspaper The Daily Star that there would be no changes to the figures presented to the IMF, but the government was "willing to examine the different approaches to the issue of public debt and financial losses".

    But Nahas told Al Jazeera, "I don't understand this. If you're changing the approaches, then the numbers will change, its basic mathematics: if the equation changes the numbers will change."

    I fault all of them for not explaining how they came to their numbers so that we can conclude on what they are doing. I understand that IMF doesn’t give you anything for free and would want you to overestimate your losses so that they make you sell assets to foreigners and some big short finance advisers who advise for the government earn high salaries from organizations affiliated with the IMF (all you have to do is browse Levantine partners website and you will their global financial reach, i am saying they are corrupt, but they definitely have interests in the the global world economy and might be willing to please the IMF) and maybe kanaan is trying to avoid that by showing the right numbers but we do not know because kellou 7aki.
     
    Last edited:
    The_FPMer

    The_FPMer

    Active Member
    fpm lost all its allies

    if they can win sa7ten 3a albo la bassil

    but i wont be putting my money on it this time
    Daddy HA still backs them and that's the most important thing for FPM. Ba2we byemsho deghre.
     
    Nonan

    Nonan

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Nahas told Al Jazeera, "I don't understand this. If you're changing the approaches, then the numbers will change, its basic mathematics: if the equation changes the numbers will change."

    I fault all of them for not explaining how they came to their numbers so that we can conclude on what they are doing. I understand that IMF doesn’t give you anything for free and would want you to overestimate your losses so that they make you sell assets to foreigners and some big short finance advisers who advise for the government earn high salaries from organizations affiliated with the IMF (all you have to do is browse Levantine partners website and you will their global financial reach, i am saying they are corrupt, but they definitely have interests in the the global world economy and might be willing to please the IMF) and maybe kanaan is trying to avoid that by showing the right numbers but we do not know because kellou 7aki.
    Now this is the most creative defense of Kan3an yet. He is siding with Berri and Hariri against Bifani because he wants to protect Lebanese State assets from IMF corruption? This should be in top 3 posts for 2020 no? Hariri, Berri and Kan3an, the heroes protecting Lebanese State assets against greedy multilateral development institutions and their corrupt masters coming in to raid our gold
     
    Nonan

    Nonan

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    You are still not getting it... and quite emotional I should add... it’s not artificial anything, it’s a different approach. If you don’t agree with it’s absolutely fine, I have told you earlier I also don’t agree that Kanaan’s approach is the right one... but ma badda hal2ad.
    1) as to not getting it, I suggest you rethink your assumptions about what people get and don’t. Some of us work in this field and have worked with these multilateral institutions. Some of us not only get it but know the exact process of what is being discussed
    2) emotional? Sorry, I forgot you lived in the UK. Our country is going down the drain and you have someone who is supposed to be a clean MP, aligned with the president and the government and who is actively undermine the government. And behaving like an arrogant prick too. As I said in numerous posts before, he failed miserably on substance and on form here. Even if he disagrees with the numbers (and he has no grounds to and no understanding of the magnitude , again listent to Biffani’s interview ) undermining the government when it is fighting with Berri, Hariri and Joumblatt is a capital crime in my view. Sorry about being emotional about it. You’re right. My total exposure to the Lebanese banking system is .3% of my assets. And I live abroad. So why should I care if the country goes to hell?
     
    O

    Orange Hope

    Well-Known Member
    It is also based on an exchange rate so that changes the number depending what rate you choose. Also IMF is saying its numbers are closer to gov than to parliament that means there is no absoute number, indeed different approaches provide different numbers.


    Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni told local newspaper The Daily Star that there would be no changes to the figures presented to the IMF, but the government was "willing to examine the different approaches to the issue of public debt and financial losses".

    But Nahas told Al Jazeera, "I don't understand this. If you're changing the approaches, then the numbers will change, its basic mathematics: if the equation changes the numbers will change."

    I fault all of them for not explaining how they came to their numbers so that we can conclude on what they are doing. I understand that IMF doesn’t give you anything for free and would want you to overestimate your losses so that they make you sell assets to foreigners and some big short finance advisers who advise for the government earn high salaries from organizations affiliated with the IMF (all you have to do is browse Levantine partners website and you will their global financial reach, i am saying they are corrupt, but they definitely have interests in the the global world economy and might be willing to please the IMF) and maybe kanaan is trying to avoid that by showing the right numbers but we do not know because kellou 7aki.
    Do you have a link for the interview with Nahas?
     
    Dark Angel

    Dark Angel

    Legendary Member
    Existing? People are very, very concerned with FPM's internal elections and leadership disputes.
    elaborate, i didn't get what you want to say. i am just curious to figure out why he has become the subject of so much hatred.

    obviously his crimes and his guilt should surpass all others for him to be at the receiving end of such hatred. this topic actually deserves a thread of its own.
     
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