• This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn more.

Elections How much FPM - FM alliance affect negatively on voting

#1
I read some places it affected FM more negatively, with how much Hariri fed his people with Hate against us for years...just to elect General as president and ally with the ones for years he labeled Syrian- HA lackeys.

It did affect our people voting too, not as much as FM though.
 
  • Advertisement
  • zero

    New Member
    #2
    Not really.. FM lost a lot of support before they even allied with FPM. You could be right, maybe it affected the vote a little, but that is not the main reason for sure.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #3
    The main reason is. The sunnis dont like Gebran and they are now used to the alliance with LF. In Zahle masalan like 8K voted. Halla2 yemken most meto in Syria maba3ref. Bas 8K? Sounds weird to me. Same as most areas sunnis didnt vote. In the North we have tried Hariri and he doesnt do shit. All he cares is about Beirut.
     

    zero

    New Member
    #4
    The main reason is. The sunnis dont like Gebran and they are now used to the alliance with LF. In Zahle masalan like 8K voted. Halla2 yemken most meto in Syria maba3ref. Bas 8K? Sounds weird to me. Same as most areas sunnis didnt vote. In the North we have tried Hariri and he doesnt do shit. All he cares is about Beirut.
    not sure if you've noticed, but he took a big loss in beirut. Lets be honest, not many people outside of some Christians like bassil. its not really about that. Many sunnis didnt vote for Hariri because of his ineptitude. Even many of the ones that did vote, voted mostly to counter HA/Amal and NOT for their love of Saad.

    Though you are right Sunnis prefer geagea over Bassil/Aoun. Not hard to understand why.
     

    zero

    New Member
    #5
    They feel let down, and this is reflected in their immigration rates which, if im not mistaken has been highest of any sect in recent years.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #6
    not sure if you've noticed, but he took a big loss in beirut. Lets be honest, not many people outside of some Christians like bassil. its not really about that. Many sunnis didnt vote for Hariri because of his ineptitude. Even many of the ones that did vote, voted mostly to counter HA/Amal and NOT for their love of Saad.
    What counter?
    Out of 1.8, 500K voted for the duo. The duo are not stoppable in their community. That is a given. Their vote was about 30-31%. I do believe but this is the max they can get in any election. The sunni and christian % were poor bro. Both.... i do know definetely there are more people in Keserwen Jbeil etc their % in 2008 was 67%. I seriously dont know why they didnt vote.

    Also the sunnis bro are used and comfortable with LF as an ally. In Zahle they got alot of votes. Hariri stupidity and not being able to get these people onboard made them go to Mikati and Karami. Ma7ada fakar karami makes it.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #8
    You have half of the Minnieh district in Australia if not more. If you look at the registered outside 3andak thousands upon thousands of sunnis from Tripoli. Also he took a hit from those who were naturalised in and living in Syria. They are probably all dead. Also mate do you be honest he hasn't done anything for the North. He wins in Akkar due to his sunni propaganda but he doesn't do anything for the district. He has won it since 2005 and they are poorer than ever. All they do is go to the LAF and get martyred and their lives are not better. Out of all the percentages you can see the shia mobilized heavily to make sure that mafe khare2 with a shia seat. They say the turnout is 60% it is bullshit. It is 90% for the shia turnout. The rest live outside the country. Probably only 10% voted against them if that. The christian percentages could have been higher as there are many who live in the country but simply didnt go and vote and that can be seen with the percentages this time round. One would think a city like Jbeil who has a 5-10% increase in population more would vote but they simply didn't. The sunnis also should have had a higher turnout BUT it won't be that much higher maybe 10% max. The rest live outside the country.
     

    zero

    New Member
    #9
    What counter?
    Out of 1.8, 500K voted for the duo. The duo are not stoppable in their community. That is a given. Their vote was about 30-31%. I do believe but this is the max they can get in any election. The sunni and christian % were poor bro. Both.... i do know definetely there are more people in Keserwen Jbeil etc their % in 2008 was 67%. I seriously dont know why they didnt vote.

    Also the sunnis bro are used and comfortable with LF as an ally. In Zahle they got alot of votes. Hariri stupidity and not being able to get these people onboard made them go to Mikati and Karami. Ma7ada fakar karami makes it.
    I mean to counter HA/Amal and their allies influence. Meaning that they are voting mainly anti-HA/Amal/co. than pro-Saad Hariri.

    There are other reasons for sure. Obviously saad couldnt use his financial prowess as effectively anymore with players like Mikati and Makhzoumi on the field. Most hated the election law altogether (again tied to hariris ineptitude). I dont know, about Zahle specifically. We need a better indepth look at the numbers from last election to this one. but to me it seems like the biggest problem is he was losing his own supporters.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #10
    I mean to counter HA/Amal and their allies influence. Meaning that they are voting mainly anti-HA/Amal/co. than pro-Saad Hariri.

    There are other reasons for sure. Obviously saad couldnt use his financial prowess as effectively anymore with players like Mikati and Makhzoumi on the field. Most hated the election law altogether (again tied to hariris ineptitude). I dont know, about Zahle specifically. We need a better indepth look at the numbers from last election to this one. but to me it seems like the biggest problem is he was losing his own supporters.
    sade2ne Hariri has always had these numbers. He just took more seats due to the electoral law in place. The only district which I can see that he was supposed to get 2 seats but didn't is Zahle. They say that some sunnis went with LF and dropped FM. Even if he lost 5-10% of his vote I wouldn't think it was strange. It is quiet normal. Alot of naturalized this time didn't vote, money wasn't used, no falafel sandwich ma3 bebsi :p
     

    zero

    New Member
    #11
    sade2ne Hariri has always had these numbers. He just took more seats due to the electoral law in place. The only district which I can see that he was supposed to get 2 seats but didn't is Zahle. They say that some sunnis went with LF and dropped FM. Even if he lost 5-10% of his vote I wouldn't think it was strange. It is quiet normal. Alot of naturalized this time didn't vote, money wasn't used, no falafel sandwich ma3 bebsi :p
    oh im not talking about seats. Thats another issue. I was thinking about if we look at the % of votes.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #12
    oh im not talking about seats. Thats another issue. I was thinking about if we look at the % of votes.
    ba3ref. There are many factors that contributed to it. Money. Naturalized didn't come (which needs to be crossed off the voters list), and also the alliance between FM/FPM. Some people just hate GMA and hate Gebran.
     

    zero

    New Member
    #13
    You have half of the Minnieh district in Australia if not more. If you look at the registered outside 3andak thousands upon thousands of sunnis from Tripoli. Also he took a hit from those who were naturalised in and living in Syria. They are probably all dead. Also mate do you be honest he hasn't done anything for the North. He wins in Akkar due to his sunni propaganda but he doesn't do anything for the district. He has won it since 2005 and they are poorer than ever. All they do is go to the LAF and get martyred and their lives are not better. Out of all the percentages you can see the shia mobilized heavily to make sure that mafe khare2 with a shia seat. They say the turnout is 60% it is bullshit. It is 90% for the shia turnout. The rest live outside the country. Probably only 10% voted against them if that. The christian percentages could have been higher as there are many who live in the country but simply didnt go and vote and that can be seen with the percentages this time round. One would think a city like Jbeil who has a 5-10% increase in population more would vote but they simply didn't. The sunnis also should have had a higher turnout BUT it won't be that much higher maybe 10% max. The rest live outside the country.
    I think its clear the shiites are more active in their support for HA/AMal. The HA/Amal culture that is toxic to the rest of Lebanon has taken a hold of their community. They also probably feel threatened because of the many enemies theyve made in the region (and lebanon) so its extra motivation to vote. Also the religious connection HA has with their community does not really exist elsewhere anymore. HA/AMal have exerted full monopoly over the shia community, and its clear in some cases they did it by force, but there are also reasons for their loyalty.

    Has Saad even paid all his Saudi Oger employees? BA3dein whats he done in beirut that is so great?
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #14
    I think its clear the shiites are more active in their support for HA/AMal. The HA/Amal culture that is toxic to the rest of Lebanon has taken a hold of their community. They also probably feel threatened because of the many enemies theyve made in the region (and lebanon) so its extra motivation to vote. Also the religious connection HA has with their community does not really exist elsewhere anymore. HA/AMal have exerted full monopoly over the shia community, and its clear in some cases they did it by force, but there are also reasons for their loyalty.

    Has Saad even paid all his Saudi Oger employees? BA3dein whats he done in beirut that is so great?
    I agree but that is their choice. We live in a democratic country and they can vote for whoever they see fit. Hariri I don't know if he has paid the Oger employees. What is being done in Beirut which is so great is not much BUT you have the central gov and the actual economy is in Beirut. You have projects here and there, Solidere etc... what do you have in the North? You have Renee Mouawad airport which is not used, you have Al Mina port that is not used to its capabilities as the one in Beirut wants to have a stranglehold on everything eventhough prior to the civil war the port was used and used very good with goods from greece, turkey and syria coming to Tripoli. Now go to Tripoli and see the rubbish. it is just disgusting... poor people lying on the ground. children with their mums in the streets utter rubbish.... hence the christian surroundings built their cities and actually rose trying to depend on their own not Tripoli as the capital of the north.
     

    Aoune32!

    Active Member
    #15
    هناك مَن يتوقع الكثير من لقاء الرئيس سعد الحريري والدكتور سمير جعجع. ويقول: دفع الحريري ثمنَ سياسته، سياسياً وانتخابياً، وبدأ عملية تصحيح في داخل «المستقبل» وفي السياسة، وقرَّر استعادة العلاقة بحليفه القديم. ولكن، هل تجوز المراهنة على تغيير في تموضع الحريري؟
    في مشهديّة لقاء «بيت الوسط» يمكن التفكير بقاعدتين: الأولى هي أنّ «للنصر آباء كثيرين لكنّ الهزيمة يتيمة»، والثانية هي أنّ الناس يقفون دائماً مع القوي لا مع الضعيف.
    في الانتخابات، ضاعف جعجع حجم كتلته النيابية، فيما خرج الحريري بأقل من طموحاته، خصوصاً في العاصمة وبعض دوائر الجنوب والبقاع.
    منطقي بعد هذه النتيجة أن يراجع الحريري حساباته: «الاعتراف» بدور وازنٍ لجعجع… بعد إنكارٍ طويل ومرير، بدأ في خريف 2016 (إتفاق عون- الحريري الرئاسي)، واستمرّ في خريف 2017 (أزمة الحريري في السعودية)، وتخلّلته في مجلس الوزراء محطات غرام مع الوزير جبران باسيل وانتقام من جعجع.
    وفي السياسة، لم يعد الحريري يرى ضرورةً لوضع كل البَيض في سلّة عون وباسيل وحدهما، فيما هما يقومان بأخذها إلى «حزب الله». واكتشف الحريري أن لا خسارة في إقامة حدّ أدنى من التوازن بين القوى المسيحية.
    وهنا تجدر العودة إلى ظروف الصفقة مع عون، في نهايات 2016. فقد كان الحريري في المنفى آنذاك، بمعنى وجوده خارج البلد وبالمعنى السياسي أيضاً. واكتشف أنّ استمرار التزامه خط 14 آذار أصبح عبثياً ولن يعيده إلى البلد ولن يوصله إلى رئاسة الحكومة. فقرّر إبرام تسوية مع الأقوياء، أي مع «حزب الله»، ولكن بطريقة غير مباشرة.
    كان الحريري في حاجة إلى وسيط، أو إلى «طبقة عازلة» تمنع الاحتكاك المباشر والموجع بينه وبين «حزب الله»، فكانت صفقة المكاسب المشتركة بينه وبين عون، والوكيلان هما باسيل ونادر الحريري. وربما اكتشف لاحقاً أنّ تعقيدات طرأت على ظروف هذه الوكالة ودور الوكيل.
    طبيعي أن يصاب جعجع آنذاك بصدمة «انقلاب» الحريري وإبرامه الصفقة مع عون: «لي رئاسة الجمهورية ولك رئاسة الحكومة». وهو اضطر إلى عقد صفقةٍ مماثلة مع عون، تمّت تسميتُها «تفاهم معراب».
    منذ انطلاق العهد، عاش جعجع وحيداً في السياسة، وعانى وحيداً في مجلس الوزراء. وكانت الخيارات أمامه محصورة بثلاثة:

    1 - أن يبقى في الحكومة شاهد زور، وهذا خيار يرفضه بقدر الإمكان.

    2 - أن يخرج من الحكومة ويعارضها من الخارج على طريقة النائب سامي الجميل. وهو خيار لا يراه مجدياً سياسياً.

    3 - أن يبقى معترضاً من داخل الحكومة، مستقوياً بتقاطع المواقف أو المصالح بينه وبين القوى الأخرى، خارج ثنائي الحريري- باسيل، كالرئيس نبيه بري و»حزب الله» والنائب وليد جنبلاط. وهذا الخيار بدا له الأكثر واقعية.
    خلال المرحلة المقبلة، سيبقى جعجع في هذا الخيار الذي أثمر صموداً في السياسة ومكاسب في الانتخابات. وسيستفيد من «فائض القوة» الانتخابي ليقنع الحريري بتشكيل توازنٍ سياسيّ يحدّ من الجموح المنتظر في اتّجاهين:
    - جموح «التيار» إلى هامش أكبر في الملفات الداخلية.
    - جموح «حزب الله» إلى هامش أكبر في قرارات الأمن والسياسة، ولاسيما دور لبنان الإقليمي
    .
    مشكلة الحريري أنه وافق في صفقة 2016 على أن يكون شريكاً مع «التيار» في جموحه، كما قرّر السكوت على جموح «حزب الله» لاقتناعه بأنّ من العبثي الاستمرار في اللعب إلى ما لا نهاية بعناوين السلاح والأمن والتورّط في الحروب الخارجية. فكل رياح الشرق الأوسط جرت بما لا تشتهي سفن 14 آذار.
    واليوم، سيكون الحريري أمام استحقاق العودة إلى رئاسة الحكومة. وهذا يعني أنه أمام استحقاق التمسّك بالتسوية أو رفضها. وهذا وضع جعجع أيضاً. والأرجح أنّ الحريري سيستمرّ في التسوية، لأنّ الخيارات المطروحة عليه اليوم ليست أفضل من خياراته في 2016.
    لذلك، هو وجعجع يدركان أنّ الخروج من التسوية يستتبع خروجهما من الحكومة، وإن كانت تتّصف بمقدار ضعيف وشكلي من التوازن. ولا مصلحة لهما في إخلاء الساحة لحكومة يرئسها أحد حلفاء «حزب الله» الكثر، المنتظرين أدوارهم.
    فعلى الأقل، سمحت مشاركة الحريري و»القوات» في الحكومة للطرفين بأن يكونا في السلطة، ومنحتهما تمثيلاً وازناً في الحكومة وقدرة على صياغة قانون الانتخاب وقطف ثماره.
    وكان لافتاً أنّ عون، ومن باب الاحتياط، رمى باكراً في وجه الجميع كرةً اسمها «حكومة الغالبية»، إذا تعذّر قيام حكومة الوحدة الوطنية. وفي الترجمة السياسية، يعني ذلك: إذا كان أحد يفكر في طرح الشروط، فنحن سنتركه ونمشي!
    يعني ذلك أيضاً أنّ على الجميع أن يستيقظ من حسابات الربح والخسارة «الصغيرة»، بين الكتل والزعامات، وينظر إلى النتيجة الكبيرة: الغالبية الحقيقية، لا الوهمية، هي غالبية «حزب الله» وحلفائه… والباقي تفاصيل.
    وهنا ينبغي التفكيرُ مجدّداً بمشكلة الحريري وجعجع من أساسها: رئيس الحكومة سيبقى مرتبطاً بباسيل، وسيشاركه المكاسب في مجلس الوزراء، كما اقتضت الصفقة. وهذا ما جرى في الجلسة الأخيرة لمجلس الوزراء في شكل فاضح. وليس على «القوات» إلّا أن تختار: تعارض أو تسكت على مضض إذا لم تكن راغبة في مغادرة «جنّة الحكومة» أو في دخول «جنّة المكاسب».
    إذاً، أفراح جعجع- الحريري لن تعيد الرجلين إلى تحالفهما القديم، ولو أنهما مقبلان على مرحلة استحقاقات سياسية قاسية تفرض عودة التحالف، أبرزها الانفتاح المنشود بين بيروت ودمشق على أرفع المستويات وأكثرها عمقاً، والذي سيجد الحريري نفسَه مضطراً إلى أن يقول فيه كلمة قاطعة ولها مترتّباتها. وفي الدرجة الثانية، على جعجع أن يقول كلمة مماثلة.
    وبناءًَ على مواقف الحريري وجعجع، يتقرّر مصير الحكومة المقبلة. لكنّ مخاض ولادة هذه الحكومة سيكون عسيراً، والوجع سيصيب أطرافاً سياسية دون أخرى!


    جعجع- الحريري: عودة التحالف مستحيلة!