Iran on the rise: Militarily, Technologically and Strategically. Did 40 years of US sanctions hurt or help?

proIsrael-nonIsraeli

Legendary Member
Actually it’s very simple question to answer:

Any of the homes you live in today, or the one you were born in, or the ones you parents were born in, or the ones that your grand parents we born in, any of those home are threatened by Iran?

When you talk about Jews returning back home from Poland, why do you omit mentioning Jews coming back home from Arab countries.

When do you talk about Jews coming back home why do you not speak of Arab squatters in Jewish lands.

When you cry about 800,000 Arabs chased out of Israel, why do you not cry about 1M of Jews who where chased out from all over Middle East at the same time.
 

proIsrael-nonIsraeli

Legendary Member

Viral

Well-Known Member
As long as Nadim and the cuties are getting high on Iran's accidental power outage due to external sabotage, everything seams to be fine and dandy:p
Don't worry be Happy🥳
Good Job President Trump👍


U.S. Frets That Time Is Running Out to Revive Iran Nuclear Deal


President Joe Biden’s team is beginning to grapple with the possibility that the 2015 nuclear accord with Iran he promised to revive may soon be beyond saving.

Hopes for a quick re-entry to the accord that Donald Trump abandoned have dimmed after six rounds of negotiations in Vienna, with little sign of when a seventh might start. The stalemate is compounded by Iran’s technological advances and the election of a new hard-line president, raising doubt about whether the agreement reached in 2015 would be sufficient to constrain the country’s nuclear ambitions anymore.


This week provided another example of just how far Iran has advanced in the three years since then-President Trump renounced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018 and began his “maximum pressure” campaign with its array of sanctions. On Tuesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran has taken steps to make metal fuel plates with uranium it has enriched to 20% purity. That’s banned by its deal with world powers and marks a significant step toward production of a nuclear bomb.

The more knowledge Iran gains, “the more difficult it becomes to ensure that the JCPOA can be the same bulwark against nuclear weapons development as it was in 2015,” said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation at the Arms Control Association. “It’s a dangerous game. Iran is putting the Vienna talks at risk by pursuing nuclear activities that cannot be fully reversed.”

Hardline Cleric Ebrahim Raisi's First News Conference After Winning Presidential Election

Ebrahim Raisi Photographer: Ali Mohammadi/Bloomberg

The election of Ebrahim Raisi as president in June also makes it more difficult: A key strategy for the U.S. has been to rejoin the accord and then reach what it calls a “longer and stronger” deal addressing issues such as extending restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, some of which are set to expire as soon as 2025. The U.S. also would seek to open negotiations to limit Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for groups the U.S. considers terrorists.

Raisi has made clear that his government, which will take office in August, will entertain no such discussions.

“That illusion is gone now,” said Richard Goldberg, an analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which opposes the nuclear accord. “It’s been taken away by Raisi.”


‘Breakout’ Time

Iran would receive some clear benefits from finding a way to get back into the JCPOA with the U.S.: the end of many punishing sanctions that hobbled its economy, before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The harshest restriction was the effective ban on the legal sale of oil abroad, once Tehran’s biggest source of external revenue.

But three years in, Iran’s government has managed to weather those sanctions, as well as other crises such as its own military’s downing of a passenger plane following the U.S. killing of a top general early last year.

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Hovering over the efforts to revive the old deal is a fundamental question: A central goal of the 2015 agreement was to constrain Iran’s nuclear program tightly enough that it would need a full year to build a bomb if it chose to “break out” of the accord. But if Iran already has gained the ability to produce a bomb in a few months, and eventually a few weeks, is there any point in trying to get back into the deal?

Even as Iranian leaders insist they have no intention of building a bomb, they have booted out many international inspectors and are developing centrifuges that can enrich uranium 50 times faster than previously. Its nuclear “breakout” time has shrunk to “perhaps a few months,” according to State Department spokesman Ned Price.

QuickTake: Without Nuclear Deal, How Close Is Iran to a Bomb?

“We are conscious that as time proceeds Iran’s nuclear advances will have a bearing on the view of returning to the JCPOA,” Price told reporters at a briefing on Tuesday. “One of the chief advantages of the JCPOA was the elongation of that breakout time. If those advantages start to disappear, we’ll have to reassess where we are in this process.”
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

That’s forced some creative thinking, according to one person familiar with the matter. One idea is to require Iran to store its most advanced centrifuges under IAEA seal until the accord permits them to be used in 2025 under the deal’s “sunset” provisions.

Another idea is for Iran to reduce the number of centrifuges it has. People familiar with the matter say those technical talks have gone on while the broader negotiations take place.

But skeptics of the deal -- including Republicans and some Democrats in the U.S. Congress -- have long argued that the accord at best simply delayed Iran’s nuclear program.

“Much has unfolded since the 2015 Iran nuclear deal,” said Senator Ben Cardin, a Maryland Democrat. “The world is a different place.”


Lost Cause

Now, denying Iran the technology to build a bomb may be a lost cause.

“That ship has sailed -- Iran today is in possession of nuclear weapons-grade material and advanced centrifuges”
said Ray Takeyh, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Anybody who thinks that getting back to the JCPOA puts Iran’s nuclear program back in a box has no precise understanding of the box.”

There’s also the knowledge on both sides that any accord reached now could be fleeting anyhow. If a Republican wins the White House in 2024, a revived deal would probably be scrapped again. That’s resulted in short-term thinking on both sides, trying to extract gains now and leave the future to resolve itself later.

For now, though, there simply may be no other choice. Biden administration officials remain determined not to adhere to the Trump approach of provocation heaped on provocation. They are looking for some way to ease the tension and get back into a nonproliferation deal.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
And they still argue that, for all its flaws, the JCPOA remains powerful. According to one person familiar with the U.S. team’s negotiating stance, returning to the deal would have nonproliferation benefits -- at least for the time being.

“The approach reconstituting what we had and then trying to make as much progress after that is the right way to proceed -- I really don’t see any other alternative,” said Suzanne DiMaggio, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “It’s important to look at the JCPOA not only as a sound nonproliferation agreement but also as a mechanism for de-escalation.”’
 

LEBANESE-CIA

Legendary Member
Too Late, it is a matter of time.

Iran will be a nuclear power (discretly) for some time before the world wakes up and realize that.

(I read some* cables that HARP has been used in recent Iran's abnormality events ;)
 

Viral

Well-Known Member
Too Late, it is a matter of time.

Iran will be a nuclear power (discretly) for some time before the world wakes up and realize that.

(I read some* cables that HARP has been used in recent Iran's abnormality events ;)
If you carefully read credible news you’ll realize the US administration started already approaching Iran as a nuclear power.

You read the naïve and idiots who are happy talking about hopeless sabotages and superficial events happening randomly in Iran. They have no clue about recent history when India and Pakistan became nuclear powers wile the US scratching its ass. History is repeating itself. Some believe Iran will surprise the world by detonating its first bomb by Christmas.

But there is always an upside for rising Iran; KSA feeling more threatened will have to give more business to the US military industry and Israel will be there to help as well.

The Middle East will be divided into two camps: Israel and Iran. Ironically the Arabs didn’t have to be in such position if they weren't too stupid to betray each other and trust Israel and eventually pay the price. UAE - KSA eruption is just the beginning…
 

Viral

Well-Known Member
Iran is now setting the rules for the US.
Thank you President Trump...

US must guarantee it will not leave nuclear deal again, says Iran



Iran nuclear deal: President-elect Raisi issues warning over talks


1625873978358.png
Isn't he the guy on the US sanctions list?
Sound more like the Honor List...
 

Viral

Well-Known Member
But there is always an upside for rising Iran; KSA feeling more threatened will have to give more business to the US military industry and Israel will be there to help as well.
Follow up:


Saudis concerned by Iran nuke activity ‘not consistent with peaceful purposes’​

1625874296081.png
 

Ashrafieh LF

New Member
Too Late, it is a matter of time.

Iran will be a nuclear power (discretly) for some time before the world wakes up and realize that.

(I read some* cables that HARP has been used in recent Iran's abnormality events ;)
No way Israel will allow them to be a nuclear power. The second they lose faith in Biden they will handle things on their own
 

Viral

Well-Known Member
No way Israel will allow them to be a nuclear power. The second they lose faith in Biden they will handle things on their own
You can change your LF Avatar now if you like. We believe you! You proved to be an LF graduate from Geagea School that never bet on the wrong horse and Akid Akid, always had it right.🤣
 
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