Elections Is it fair to assume that for FPM this is 2005 alliances again?

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  • My Moria Moon

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    #2
    Me, I have no opinion, because I never understood the need of engaging in any elections.. Yes, I know, a very bad habit.
    (Bumping up your thread ;)
     

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    #5
    I notice you usually are initiated in the world of lebanese elections.
    What are your specific predictions freelebanon? Will FPMs parliamentary block grow or shrink?
    I am just a heavy follower because i enjoy it. FPM block will probably shrink due to the nature of the law but not in a critical way. I predict FPM+ tachnag to grab between 15 & 20 mps. Less than 15 will be pictured as a disaster and more than 20 a pleasant surprise !
     

    Nonan

    Well-Known Member
    #6
    I am just a heavy follower because i enjoy it. FPM block will probably shrink due to the nature of the law but not in a critical way. I predict FPM+ tachnag to grab between 15 & 20 mps. Less than 15 will be pictured as a disaster and more than 20 a pleasant surprise !
    That is quite a decrease. The bigger picture for me (because to be honest, the parliament is a bit useless) is whether there is a realignment of FM+LF+PSP on one hand and HA+Amal+mararda and frata on the other hand, all against FPM. Otherwise, why is the FPM having such a hard time forming alliances. Having entered “the game”, FPM lost their moral high ground of 2005, only to also lose their alliances too... could that be it?
     

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    #7
    That is quite a decrease. The bigger picture for me (because to be honest, the parliament is a bit useless) is whether there is a realignment of FM+LF+PSP on one hand and HA+Amal+mararda and frata on the other hand, all against FPM. Otherwise, why is the FPM having such a hard time forming alliances. Having entered “the game”, FPM lost their moral high ground of 2005, only to also lose their alliances too... could that be it?
    Because FPM always represented the alternative. Now a lot of NGO’s are forming and allying together to run the election by selling themselves as the new alternatives. Those people have no effect on the ikta3 followers or the chi3a duo followers , they only take from FPM. FPM will be weaker after this election for sure. The biggest winners from this law will be the chi3a duo and to a lesser extend the Lebanese forces.
     

    Nonan

    Well-Known Member
    #8
    Because FPM always represented the alternative. Now a lot of NGO’s are forming and allying together to run the election by selling themselves as the new alternatives. Those people have no effect on the ikta3 followers or the chi3a duo followers , they only take from FPM. FPM will be weaker after this election for sure. The biggest winners from this law will be the chi3a duo and to a lesser extend the Lebanese forces.
    Indeed, it why is that? Isn’t it because in some way FPM failed to deliver on its “alternative” vision? It didn’t make any dent in the chi3a duo followers nor in the FM followers. It adopted a sectarian discourse that shut these communities off, while its objectives (reform, public services, etc.) should inherently been cuttin across all underserved communities. Or maybe the Lebanese voter is too cynical and thinks that this reform ما فيا خبز
     

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    #9
    Indeed, it why is that? Isn’t it because in some way FPM failed to deliver on its “alternative” vision? It didn’t make any dent in the chi3a duo followers nor in the FM followers. It adopted a sectarian discourse that shut these communities off, while its objectives (reform, public services, etc.) should inherently been cuttin across all underserved communities. Or maybe the Lebanese voter is too cynical and thinks that this reform ما فيا خبز
    Its a bit of everything you stated in ur post. True FPM failed to deliver on its alternative vision for many reasons. Some of them are on FPM alone while others are due to being faught by the rest of the traditional parties in Lebanon. In order to survive politically , FPM tried to beat those traditional parties in their own game using their own rules as playing fairly got them nothing.This helped them reach the presidency and become stronger in the state but made them lose in the process many of the people who supported their cause when it was pure and idealistic.
    What i hate about those NGOs is that they only have a chance in the christian street and will only make FPM weaker while the chi3a duo , FM and jumblatt are becoming stronger. + many of them are hypocrites.
     

    Nonan

    Well-Known Member
    #10
    .
    What i hate about those NGOs is that they only have a chance in the christian street and will only make FPM weaker while the chi3a duo , FM and jumblatt are becoming stronger. + many of them are hypocrites.
    I think what FPM needs is a vision and a new strategy. Ok, they got Aoun to he presidency, now what? What are the objectives for the next 5 years and how do they get there? I always thought, since 2015, that fighting the civil society (as represented by unaffiliated people and NGOs) was a losing approach by FPM, but I got lynched here. FPM came off weak and petty and played entirely into the كلون يعني كلون, whether fair or not. They should have anticipated that, by playing the same games as Amal and co to beat them, they leave themselves vulnerable to other idealistic movements. In any case, we are where we are, where do we got next?
     

    My Moria Moon

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    #12
    G
    Because FPM always represented the alternative. Now a lot of NGO’s are forming and allying together to run the election by selling themselves as the new alternatives. Those people have no effect on the ikta3 followers or the chi3a duo followers , they only take from FPM. FPM will be weaker after this election for sure. The biggest winners from this law will be the chi3a duo and to a lesser extend the Lebanese forces.
    Good observation.
     
    #17
    Bass ana ma bsadd2ak. Nothing personal, but your analysis records ma betshajji3.
    Give me a couple of years so I might forget your certainity about Hariri NOT being kidnapped by Mouhammad Ben Salman.. And I might reconsider.:)
    Lol, metl ma baddak :)
    By the way he wasn't, and he continues to insist that he wasn't even today :)
     

    My Moria Moon

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    #18
    Lol, metl ma baddak :)
    By the way he wasn't, and he continues to insist that he wasn't even today :)
    Bass ana I don't believe him neither on this.

    3ala fekra, what are your predictions anyway, regarding FPMs parliamentary block evolution, or devolution, and in the blurred light of the current election alliances?
     

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    #19
    I think what FPM needs is a vision and a new strategy. Ok, they got Aoun to he presidency, now what? What are the objectives for the next 5 years and how do they get there? I always thought, since 2015, that fighting the civil society (as represented by unaffiliated people and NGOs) was a losing approach by FPM, but I got lynched here. FPM came off weak and petty and played entirely into the كلون يعني كلون, whether fair or not. They should have anticipated that, by playing the same games as Amal and co to beat them, they leave themselves vulnerable to other idealistic movements. In any case, we are where we are, where do we got next?
    Well FPM was born on idealistic views and many of its current or ex supporters are free thinkers who cannot be taken to places they are not convinced about. Unlike other parties whose base is not affected by anything and they will follow them to death if they need to.
    It was the normal thing that FPM will take the biggest blow from this people mini revolution.
    The biggest failure in FPM was the internal election and the way jubran was appointed not the way they are running their ministries.
     

    Nonan

    Well-Known Member
    #20
    Well FPM was born on idealistic views and many of its current or ex supporters are free thinkers who cannot be taken to places they are not convinced about. Unlike other parties whose base is not affected by anything and they will follow them to death if they need to.
    It was the normal thing that FPM will take the biggest blow from this people mini revolution.
    The biggest failure in FPM was the internal election and the way jubran was appointed not the way they are running their ministries.
    I agree about the Gebran election fiasco. I would also add the reaction to the civil movements that summer (2015), the weird ballet with Berri and the excessive “Christian rights speech”. But all this underscores how poor and counterproductive FPM’s communication strategy has been / is. If anything, I think this is their biggest flaw (giving them credit that there is a sound strategy). They shoot themselves in the foot way too often and are naive...
     

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