Is nabih berri finished?

A

Anti Iran

New Member
I have never seen such a withdrawn Nabih Berri in Lebanese politics as I do lately. He has always been an intermediary among all parties and movements. Today, he is nothing more than a mere shadow of Hezballah. It is true that HA has long been steering Amal movement’s strategic strings for its own end, but lately it seems that Amal has been completely swallowed.

The name of Abbas Ibrahim is shining everywhere in the press as if Syria is looking forward to promoting AI into some political leadership so to absorb the bulk of the Amal movement who would not follow HA’s ideology. Jamil el Sayyed is too hated by most Lebanese people that he can hardly manage to replace Berri as head of the Parliament.

The “3e2deh l senniyyeh” is, in the opinion of many, a diversion created by HA to keep the sunnis busy. HA is aware that the compactness and the strength of the shiite duo will soon stumble and maybe collapse with the passing of Berri. Seeing the inevitability of the FM movement to “grab” some anti-HA shiites in the future the same way Rafic Hariri used to “purchase” some shiites MPs , ministers, imams, etc., HA is breaching the sunni arena through a preemptive strike.

Needless to say that Alwaleed Sukkarieh and Qaasem Hashem belong to Berri’s block. Berri would have never accepted to blackmail Hariri by “lending” his two MPs to HA and its “ketleh l tasheworiyeh” (which is an HA invention afterall). That reveals a total unprecedent submissiveness of berri to HA.
 
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  • Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    I have never seen such a withdrawn Nabih Berri in Lebanese politics as I do lately. He has always been an intermediary among all parties and movements. Today, he is nothing more than a mere shadow of Hezballah. It is true that HA has long been steering Amal movement’s strategic strings for its own end, but lately it seems that Amal has been completely swallowed.

    The name of Abbas Ibrahim is shining everywhere in the press as if Syria is looking forward to promoting AI into some political leadership so to absorb the bulk of the Amal movement who would not follow HA’s ideology. Jamil el Sayyed is too hated by most Lebanese people that he can hardly manage to replace Berri as head of the Parliament.

    The “3e2deh l senniyyeh” is, in the opinion of many, a diversion created by HA to keep the sunnis busy. HA is aware that the compactness and the strength of the shiite duo will soon stumble and maybe collapse with the passing of Berri. Seeing the inevitability of the FM movement to “grab” some anti-HA shiites in the future the same way Rafic Hariri used to “purchase” some shiites MPs , ministers, imams, etc., HA is breaching the sunni arena through a preemptive strike.

    Needless to say that Alwaleed Sukkarieh and Qaasem Hashem belong to Berri’s block. Berri would have never accepted to blackmail Hariri by “lending” his two MPs to HA and its “ketleh l tasheworiyeh” (which is an HA invention afterall). That reveals a total unprecedent submissiveness of berri to HA.
    I think there will be a major upset in the shia community with Berri passing on. This is probably why HA is trying to be more involved in the gov and is demanding to gain the health ministry. Berri has been the politician for over 40 years for the shia community. There won't be anyone like him in Amal. Amal could go and some will go to HA.
     
    Rachel Corrie

    Rachel Corrie

    Legendary Member
    I have never seen such a withdrawn Nabih Berri in Lebanese politics as I do lately. He has always been an intermediary among all parties and movements. Today, he is nothing more than a mere shadow of Hezballah. It is true that HA has long been steering Amal movement’s strategic strings for its own end, but lately it seems that Amal has been completely swallowed.

    The name of Abbas Ibrahim is shining everywhere in the press as if Syria is looking forward to promoting AI into some political leadership so to absorb the bulk of the Amal movement who would not follow HA’s ideology. Jamil el Sayyed is too hated by most Lebanese people that he can hardly manage to replace Berri as head of the Parliament.

    The “3e2deh l senniyyeh” is, in the opinion of many, a diversion created by HA to keep the sunnis busy. HA is aware that the compactness and the strength of the shiite duo will soon stumble and maybe collapse with the passing of Berri. Seeing the inevitability of the FM movement to “grab” some anti-HA shiites in the future the same way Rafic Hariri used to “purchase” some shiites MPs , ministers, imams, etc., HA is breaching the sunni arena through a preemptive strike.

    Needless to say that Alwaleed Sukkarieh and Qaasem Hashem belong to Berri’s block. Berri would have never accepted to blackmail Hariri by “lending” his two MPs to HA and its “ketleh l tasheworiyeh” (which is an HA invention afterall). That reveals a total unprecedent submissiveness of berri to HA.
    Both Sukkariyyeh and Hashem are part of the six Sunni MPs. So what are you saying?

    This thread is more about wishful thinking than facts.
     
    F

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    I have never seen such a withdrawn Nabih Berri in Lebanese politics as I do lately. He has always been an intermediary among all parties and movements. Today, he is nothing more than a mere shadow of Hezballah. It is true that HA has long been steering Amal movement’s strategic strings for its own end, but lately it seems that Amal has been completely swallowed.

    The name of Abbas Ibrahim is shining everywhere in the press as if Syria is looking forward to promoting AI into some political leadership so to absorb the bulk of the Amal movement who would not follow HA’s ideology. Jamil el Sayyed is too hated by most Lebanese people that he can hardly manage to replace Berri as head of the Parliament.

    The “3e2deh l senniyyeh” is, in the opinion of many, a diversion created by HA to keep the sunnis busy. HA is aware that the compactness and the strength of the shiite duo will soon stumble and maybe collapse with the passing of Berri. Seeing the inevitability of the FM movement to “grab” some anti-HA shiites in the future the same way Rafic Hariri used to “purchase” some shiites MPs , ministers, imams, etc., HA is breaching the sunni arena through a preemptive strike.

    Needless to say that Alwaleed Sukkarieh and Qaasem Hashem belong to Berri’s block. Berri would have never accepted to blackmail Hariri by “lending” his two MPs to HA and its “ketleh l tasheworiyeh” (which is an HA invention afterall). That reveals a total unprecedent submissiveness of berri to HA.
    Nice analysis. Hizbullah might be starting to work from now for the post berri era and how this will affect the chi3ite community in lebanon. Before, everyone of them had a clear role . Berri for politics ,corruption and personal khadamet and hizbullah for the ideology religion and arms. Now hizbullah insisting on getting the health ministry can be seen as a direction to start taking both roles in the near future and to fill the gap berri will be leaving behind after his death .
     
    A

    Anti Iran

    New Member
    Both Sukkariyyeh and Hashem are part of the six Sunni MPs. So what are you saying?

    This thread is more about wishful thinking than facts.
    This is an analysis, not a wishful thinking. Berri is very old and has not undergone any succession plan for Amal, unlike many others such as PMA, jumblat, frangieh, amine gemayel, etc.
    The gap that Berri will leave behind him could weaken the shiite street to such an extent that Hariri could exploit , hence HA’s move to keep hariri busy in his own street
     
    A

    Anti Iran

    New Member
    Or
    Nice analysis. Hizbullah might be starting to work from now for the post berri era and how this will affect the chi3ite community in lebanon. Before, everyone of them had a clear role . Berri for politics ,corruption and personal khadamet and hizbullah for the ideology religion and arms. Now hizbullah insisting on getting the health ministry can be seen as a direction to start taking both roles in the near future and to fill the gap berri will be leaving behind after his death .
    HA needs a “moderate” shiite figure, one that is not perceived as a terrorist by western countries, to deal with foreign diplomats on his behalf. Abbas Ibrahim seems to fit this role and massive media coverage is introducing AI to the public.
    Anyway, the shia duo era will soon fall. HA knows that and is trying to snatch as much prerogatives as he can before the departure of Berri. Do not be surprised if HA start claiming out loud on the “mouthelatheh” or constitution amendments in favor of the shiite community.
     
    Iron Maiden

    Iron Maiden

    Paragon of Bacon
    Staff member
    Or

    HA needs a “moderate” shiite figure, one that is not perceived as a terrorist by western countries, to deal with foreign diplomats on his behalf. Abbas Ibrahim seems to fit this role and massive media coverage is introducing AI to the public.
    Anyway, the shia duo era will soon fall. HA knows that and is trying to snatch as much prerogatives as he can before the departure of Berri. Do not be surprised if HA start claiming out loud on the “mouthelatheh” or constitution amendments in favor of the shiite community.
    The day they claim mouthelathé is the day they push for federalism themselves. Nasrallah is smart enough to see that that call would strip him of any local cover he still has.
     
    A

    Anti Iran

    New Member
    The day they claim mouthelathé is the day they push for federalism themselves. Nasrallah is smart enough to see that that call would strip him of any local cover he still has.
    They won t claim it, but will push others to claim it in their stead, especially christians who are more eager to federalism than muslims in general.
     
    F

    freelebanonn

    Legendary Member
    They won t claim it, but will push others to claim it in their stead, especially christians who are more eager to federalism than muslims in general.
    Muslims will benefit the least from a federal system. I know i will sound sectarian to many here but the truth is that the economy strives the most in the christian areas and taxes are paid the most in those areas and the law is implemented the most in those areas too.

    Most of the bekaa, south and north where muslims are a majority depend mainly on the taxes and economy of mount lebanon and beirut . With a federal system they will be forced to sustain themselves by themselves which will put their leaders on a risk of facing a real uprising for the first time ever.

    This is in my opinion one of the main reasons why muslim in lebanon will never accept a federal system unless a war happened and this new system was forced upon them by foreign powers .

    Day after day though i am being convinced more and more that a federal system is the only remaining solution or else this country is doomed.
     
    NAFAR

    NAFAR

    Well-Known Member
    Well actually there is nothing called Amal anymore; HA/Amal are one party with two different sections.
    Berri absence will not change anything; HA will get a puppet to replace him and the waiting queue is very long from Ibrahim to Sayed to Mo Obeid to Khalil and all the orta.
    One thing Shiite are very good at, is unity.........so don't have high hopes that Berri absence will change anything.
     
    Rachel Corrie

    Rachel Corrie

    Legendary Member
    Muslims will benefit the least from a federal system. I know i will sound sectarian to many here but the truth is that the economy strives the most in the christian areas and taxes are paid the most in those areas and the law is implemented the most in those areas too.

    Most of the bekaa, south and north where muslims are a majority depend mainly on the taxes and economy of mount lebanon and beirut . With a federal system they will be forced to sustain themselves by themselves which will put their leaders on a risk of facing a real uprising for the first time ever.

    This is in my opinion one of the main reasons why muslim in lebanon will never accept a federal system unless a war happened and this new system was forced upon them by foreign powers .

    Day after day though i am being convinced more and more that a federal system is the only remaining solution or else this country is doomed.
    Habibi, reduce your arrogance pill that you take...mount Lebanon and Beirut are mixed areas. You may be shocked to find out that you're still lesser in numbers in terms of money and population wise.

    You do not want to accept that you lost the civil war. You don't want to accept that the president does not have executive powers, even if someone with hundred times the strength and charisma of Aoun is elected. You don't want to realize its a parliamentary system. You don't want to realize that in a sectarian system, even the least sectarian people will lean towards their sect. You don't want to see that in a sectarian system the three national heads of state are each viewed as sectional leaders and not national leaders. That means a Shia views Aoun, the same way a Maronite views Berri (both are seen as and with the mentality: he is your president and not ours, and on the national level, he is a figure head). And you don't want to realize that one figure head from one sect cannot impose rules on another sect. That is why we almost had a mini civil war over Wahab because a Sunni PM and Sunni officials acted like we are in Saudi Arabia to arrest a political figure from another sect. We didn't even hear anything anymore.

    If there is any war, or you start one (and you can't start one), you will lose it all eventually. No foreign powers will save you. The same foreign powers who wanted you to settle in Canada will sell you, especially if they realize you are the weaker side and overrepresented and they come to conclude your are an unnecessary burden to them.
     
    Jorje

    Jorje

    Legendary Member
    Hariri could exploit? Harri is the most pathetic, useless, weak politician in all of Lebanon. He's still a bloated corpse though, waiting to be feasted on by Bassil and co.
     
    NAFAR

    NAFAR

    Well-Known Member
    .

    If there is any war, or you start one (and you can't start one), you will lose it all eventually. No foreign powers will save you. The same foreign powers who wanted you to settle in Canada will sell you, especially if they realize you are the weaker side and overrepresented and they come to conclude your are an unnecessary burden to them.
    This is the mentality that will lead us to a war... this big khassy will lead us to a war, abd as I experienced first hand it is a common shiite power drunkness thinking nowdays....maybe it is the maronites destiny as it was for the last 1400 years.
     
    manifesto

    manifesto

    Well-Known Member
    Habibi, reduce your arrogance pill that you take...mount Lebanon and Beirut are mixed areas. You may be shocked to find out that you're still lesser in numbers in terms of money and population wise.

    You do not want to accept that you lost the civil war. You don't want to accept that the president does not have executive powers, even if someone with hundred times the strength and charisma of Aoun is elected. You don't want to realize its a parliamentary system. You don't want to realize that in a sectarian system, even the least sectarian people will lean towards their sect. You don't want to see that in a sectarian system the three national heads of state are each viewed as sectional leaders and not national leaders. That means a Shia views Aoun, the same way a Maronite views Berri (both are seen as and with the mentality: he is your president and not ours, and on the national level, he is a figure head). And you don't want to realize that one figure head from one sect cannot impose rules on another sect. That is why we almost had a mini civil war over Wahab because a Sunni PM and Sunni officials acted like we are in Saudi Arabia to arrest a political figure from another sect. We didn't even hear anything anymore.

    If there is any war, or you start one (and you can't start one), you will lose it all eventually. No foreign powers will save you. The same foreign powers who wanted you to settle in Canada will sell you, especially if they realize you are the weaker side and overrepresented and they come to conclude your are an unnecessary burden to them.
    Man, don't waste your time. Kil 3e2deton lal Maronites enno they no longer dominate the state like they used to during Maronitism.
    No one killed and harmed the Shiites as much as Maronites and their Sunni allies and they have the audacity to pretend they're the Middle East's most persecuted sect, when in reality they're responsible for the region's ugliest massacres.

    If they think this is year 1200-something where they can conspire with Sunnis to drive us out of Keserwan and Jezzine they're very mistaken.
    The current geopolitical environment is not in their favor. Geagea will remain a sarsour and never see the presidency.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    This is the mentality that will lead us to a war... this big khassy will lead us to a war, abd as I experienced first hand it is a common shiite power drunkness thinking nowdays....maybe it is the maronites destiny as it was for the last 1400 years.
    Let their power go to their head. :)
    It is not the first time. When the christians held their ground in 75 ma7ada fakkar that the war will last 15 years and no one thought that the christians will actually hold arms. They thought that we are like the christians of Syria, Iraq and Egypt. Just holding our cross and walking. The christians showed them the true meaning of resistance and it is their destiny to do the same thing again if need be.
     
    A

    Anti Iran

    New Member
    Hariri could exploit? Harri is the most pathetic, useless, weak politician in all of Lebanon. He's still a bloated corpse though, waiting to be feasted on by Bassil and co.
    He’s a businessman like his father, surely less competent, more arrogant and more complacent than him. But he is a businessman afterall, and the one thing he has mastered is bribery. So yes, why wouldn’t he purchase shiite imams?
     
    Lebanese Pride

    Lebanese Pride

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Let their power go to their head. :)
    It is not the first time. When the christians held their ground in 75 ma7ada fakkar that the war will last 15 years and no one thought that the christians will actually hold arms. They thought that we are like the christians of Syria, Iraq and Egypt. Just holding our cross and walking. The christians showed them the true meaning of resistance and it is their destiny to do the same thing again if need be.
    You FPMers are something else (not talking directly about you here Aoun32) when its in your favor you praise the Chritstian resistance and when its not Geagea becomes a criminal.

    We told you that their ego will get the best of them and they will turn once they suck you dry and you didnt listen :)

    Let Rachelle and her boyfriend talk, history speaks louder and if anyone thinj they can drive us out of our lands they will discover what their Palesto friends discovered in 1975.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    You FPMers are something else (not talking directly about you here Aoun32) when its in your favor you praise the Chritstian resistance and when its not Geagea becomes a criminal.

    We told you that their ego will get the best of them and they will turn once they suck you dry and you didnt listen :)

    Let Rachelle and her boyfriend talk, history speaks louder and if anyone thinj they can drive us out of our lands they will discover what their Palesto friends discovered in 1975.
    I support GMA becoming President as he is a christian who represents the majority of the christians and I also support the sacrifice that the christian resistance did in those days. I know what the christians are capable of and I have no fear for their population in Lebanon. I was never with the MOU or any pact with HA. They do not care about the country only themselves and their arms and they used to MOU for a christian cover. Nothing else to it really.
     
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    B

    bachir1916

    Well-Known Member
    Habibi, reduce your arrogance pill that you take...mount Lebanon and Beirut are mixed areas. You may be shocked to find out that you're still lesser in numbers in terms of money and population wise.

    You do not want to accept that you lost the civil war. You don't want to accept that the president does not have executive powers, even if someone with hundred times the strength and charisma of Aoun is elected. You don't want to realize its a parliamentary system. You don't want to realize that in a sectarian system, even the least sectarian people will lean towards their sect. You don't want to see that in a sectarian system the three national heads of state are each viewed as sectional leaders and not national leaders. That means a Shia views Aoun, the same way a Maronite views Berri (both are seen as and with the mentality: he is your president and not ours, and on the national level, he is a figure head). And you don't want to realize that one figure head from one sect cannot impose rules on another sect. That is why we almost had a mini civil war over Wahab because a Sunni PM and Sunni officials acted like we are in Saudi Arabia to arrest a political figure from another sect. We didn't even hear anything anymore.

    If there is any war, or you start one (and you can't start one), you will lose it all eventually. No foreign powers will save you. The same foreign powers who wanted you to settle in Canada will sell you, especially if they realize you are the weaker side and overrepresented and they come to conclude your are an unnecessary burden to them.
    What civil war we had lost?
    Unless you call an all out invasion by the Syrian army using fighter jets ?
    If that is the case then it is safe to say you Muslims also lost the civil war in 1982 when the Isralis beat the shit out of you.
    We never had a civil war, the war was between the Christians and all Jarabs the Syrian jarabi army included.
    We fought against all Muslims of Lebanon, all Arabs, and also against the Syrian army for a decade and a half, and you still could not defeat us
    You muslims of Lebanon were hiding behind the Syrian army and their tanks and your PLO friends for 15 years, without them we would have popped up all like bed bugs.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    What civil war we had lost?
    Unless you call an all out invasion by the Syrian army using fighter jets ?
    If that is the case then it is safe to say you Muslims also lost the civil war in 1982 when the Isralis beat the shit out of you.
    We never had a civil war, the war was between the Christians and all Jarabs the Syrian jarabi army included.
    We fought against all Muslims of Lebanon, all Arabs, and also against the Syrian army for a decade and a half, and you still could not defeat us
    You muslims of Lebanon were hiding behind the Syrian army and their tanks and your PLO friends for 15 years, without them we would have popped up all like bed bugs.
    We don't wish for a civil war. We want our people (all of them) to stay in Lebanon and live a normal life. But it looks like some don't want this and they are bent to let the people of this country live in sh**. We want to fix our country and reform it. It's sad what is happening to it seriously.
     
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