Is nabih berri finished?

Rafidi

Rafidi

Legendary Member
The title of the thread is very unrealistic and funny.

How can an 82 year old man, who has been arguably the most powerful man in Lebanon for three decades "finish"? Even if he retires today or is deposed, that still wont amount to "being finished".
 
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  • Rafidi

    Rafidi

    Legendary Member
    We will look back at this thread in 2076 and say yep we were wrong.
    I heard he does blood replacement therapy. He can afford fresh and young blood periodically. He wants to be forever young. He would likely live above 100 and still be speaker. We still have another 30 years to go. :lol:
     
    Mrsrx

    Mrsrx

    Somehow a Member
    Staff member
    I heard he does blood replacement therapy. He can afford fresh and young blood periodically. He wants to be forever young. He would likely live above 100 and still be speaker. We still have another 30 years to go. :lol:
    Health Organization (WHO) certified the global eradication of smallpox in 1980.
    In 1980, Berri was elected leader of the Amal Movement.

    Coincidence?!....i think not!
     
    opium

    opium

    Well-Known Member
    No he is not finished, even he decides to step out. Unless if Hezbollah chooses to run against him, even in this case Amal can still get around 20 % of the votes.
    Unfortunately there are no other serious replacement for him.
    7irak is still weak in Shiaas regions and not organised.
    I can think of communist party, but I don't think they can gather more than 15 % from the votes. And in this case they will still be minorities.

    From total SHIAA votes I expect the following forecast in the next elections.

    Communists+ 7irak + Independents 20 %
    14 March and allies 15 %
    Amal 25 %
    Hizballah 40 %
     
    Rafidi

    Rafidi

    Legendary Member
    No he is not finished, even he decides to step out. Unless if Hezbollah chooses to run against him, even in this case Amal can still get around 20 % of the votes.
    Unfortunately there are no other serious replacement for him.
    7irak is still weak in Shiaas regions and not organised.
    I can think of communist party, but I don't think they can gather more than 15 % from the votes. And in this case they will still be minorities.

    From total SHIAA votes I expect the following forecast in the next elections.

    Communists+ 7irak + Independents 20 %
    14 March and allies 15 %
    Amal 25 %
    Hizballah 40 %
    I'd rather not vote, than to vote outside of HA/Amal. The economy is bad, Berri is corrupt, people are hungry etc. But there are bigger dangers that only Shia unity and bloc votes can overcome. Take for instance the danger of naturalizing Palestinians. The reason I wont be too excited about the so called 7irak or revolutionaries or whatever name they give themselves. They would like agree, under the right dose of international pressure, to accept tawteen. Hezballah will never agree to that. I wont vote communist either. Communism seeks to replace our identity as Shia. One can conveniently say communism was more alive in the Shia community than in other communities in the past when we lacked a self identity as Shia and with weak leadership.

    We may get distracted by the economy, fighting corruption and other day to day issues but the fact remains that we live in a volatile region with existential threats to our identity. Imagine Israehell had succeeded to invade, occupy and annex the South. And I end up as an internally displaced person in Lebanon. With the electoral law based on districts, I'd be disenfranchised. I wont be able to vote in other regions of Lebanon. Perhaps, a reason why people identify more with their sect or region. The people have been divided into sects and regions. Without a one district promotional electoral law, and hopefully a non sectarian one, it would he hard to have a solid national identity.
     
    SeaAb

    SeaAb

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    No he is not finished, even he decides to step out. Unless if Hezbollah chooses to run against him, even in this case Amal can still get around 20 % of the votes.
    Unfortunately there are no other serious replacement for him.
    7irak is still weak in Shiaas regions and not organised.
    I can think of communist party, but I don't think they can gather more than 15 % from the votes. And in this case they will still be minorities.

    From total SHIAA votes I expect the following forecast in the next elections.

    Communists+ 7irak + Independents 20 %
    14 March and allies 15 %
    Amal 25 %
    Hizballah 40 %
    Fixed your numbers for you...

    From total SHIAA votes I expect the following forecast in the next elections.

    Communists+ 7irak + Independents 5 %
    14 March and allies 1 %
    Amal 14 %
    Hizballah 80 %
     
    AtheistForYeezus

    AtheistForYeezus

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I'd rather not vote, than to vote outside of HA/Amal. The economy is bad, Berri is corrupt, people are hungry etc. But there are bigger dangers that only Shia unity and bloc votes can overcome. T
    Stop complaining about corruption. This tribal and sectarian mentality you espouse is one the main reasons the same corrupt leaders get reelected.
    So count yourself as the problem.
     
    Jacques Hirac

    Jacques Hirac

    New Member
    I'd rather not vote, than to vote outside of HA/Amal. The economy is bad, Berri is corrupt, people are hungry etc. But there are bigger dangers that only Shia unity and bloc votes can overcome. Take for instance the danger of naturalizing Palestinians. The reason I wont be too excited about the so called 7irak or revolutionaries or whatever name they give themselves. They would like agree, under the right dose of international pressure, to accept tawteen. Hezballah will never agree to that. I wont vote communist either. Communism seeks to replace our identity as Shia. One can conveniently say communism was more alive in the Shia community than in other communities in the past when we lacked a self identity as Shia and with weak leadership.

    We may get distracted by the economy, fighting corruption and other day to day issues but the fact remains that we live in a volatile region with existential threats to our identity. Imagine Israehell had succeeded to invade, occupy and annex the South. And I end up as an internally displaced person in Lebanon. With the electoral law based on districts, I'd be disenfranchised. I wont be able to vote in other regions of Lebanon. Perhaps, a reason why people identify more with their sect or region. The people have been divided into sects and regions. Without a one district promotional electoral law, and hopefully a non sectarian one, it would he hard to have a solid national identity.
    Are there any prominent Shia independants that are not necessarily against Hezbollah?
    I mean, assuming Berri is seen as corrupt by Shia voters as well, what makes him so necessary?
    I believe the fears you stated are valid concerns, but I can't see how this translates to "I'd rather not vote, than to vote outside of HA/Amal".
    The thing is, as long as there is no healthy political competition, as long as other candidates do not even have a chance, Shia voters who are sympathetic of Hezbollah will always be stuck with this dilemma of either hurting Hezbollah or supporting corruption.
    I think the best thing for Hezbollah's fight against corruption, assuming it is true, is to have the Shia voter decide who represents him. For that to happen, the voter needs choices other than a pro-America list vs a pro-Iran list. If say Berri represents just 15% of the voters and some other political party with national values similar to those of Hezbollah represents 20%, wouldn't that free Hezbollah from the burdens of "conserving Shia unity" at the expense of its own perceived purity?
     
    Rafidi

    Rafidi

    Legendary Member
    Are there any prominent Shia independants that are not necessarily against Hezbollah?
    I mean, assuming Berri is seen as corrupt by Shia voters as well, what makes him so necessary?
    I believe the fears you stated are valid concerns, but I can't see how this translates to "I'd rather not vote, than to vote outside of HA/Amal".
    The thing is, as long as there is no healthy political competition, as long as other candidates do not even have a chance, Shia voters who are sympathetic of Hezbollah will always be stuck with this dilemma of either hurting Hezbollah or supporting corruption.
    I think the best thing for Hezbollah's fight against corruption, assuming it is true, is to have the Shia voter decide who represents him. For that to happen, the voter needs choices other than a pro-America list vs a pro-Iran list. If say Berri represents just 15% of the voters and some other political party with national values similar to those of Hezbollah represents 20%, wouldn't that free Hezbollah from the burdens of "conserving Shia unity" at the expense of its own perceived purity?
    There are many, many, many independent Shia who are pro Hezballah. I am a prime example. I do not belong to Hezballah as a member, or follower neither are my family members, who do not even care about politics. I am as independent, unaffiliated, unconcerned with partisanship politics as anyone else who is just a regular Lebanese going after his daily life. And I do not express my opinions regarding politics publicly. I find this forum very useful in expressing my opinions and aspirations privately, without having that influence my image publicly.

    By the way, Jamil al Sayyid is another good example of a pro Hezballah Shia who is independent. You will find many many more in state positions, in business, politics, journalism and in all spheres of Lebanese life and society. For this very reason, it is very shortsighted for any other sect or political party who think they can undo Hezballah. Hezballah is no longer just a political party or an armed wing. Hezballah is a movement that has believers even outside it's own organisation. This is actually what makes Hezballah strong. When you have the largest religious community in Lebanon, and even outside the Shia community, from the doctor to the taxi driver to the carpenter, to the pilot, to the lawyer, and to the labourer all identify with Hezballah, that is strength, power and confidence that the entire universe cannot defeat.

    We arent members of Hezballah but we approve of Hezbollah's actions as Shia Lebanese and citizens of this country and we have trust, confidence, and faith in its leadership especially in the person of Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah.

    Many Shia agree Berri is corrupt. You can experience that yourself. If you end up entering a taxi or uber and you can identify the driver as Shia by asking him where he is from, try to get his opinion on Berri. Do that with ten, twenty, fifty drivers or more if possible. Trust me, at least 70% or may be more will tell you he is either the cause for our poverty as a community or simply, he is corrupt.

    Nonetheless, we cant pretend that Berri is all evil and no good. He has also been good for the sect and for the country. He has played a stabilizing role. Hezballah did not always have more votes than Amal. There was a time they were equally popular, if Amal was not even more popular. The popularity gradually shifted in favor of Hezballah. Perhaps, Berri or his way of leadership was a factor determinant. But he hasn't been affected because of the prevailing unity between Amal and Hezballah, which we want to see till the day of resurrection. Berri has always had state influence and played diplomatic roles. Also, we cant afford any division among Shias. Berri is very old and sooner or later, he will give way for someone else in a peaceful, calm, and respectful way free of any conflict.

    Berri leads Amal but that doesnt mean because we disagree with Berri on certain aspects, we have to entirely disagree with all of Amal as a party. There are respectable people in Amal movement and no matter how critical of Berri and his cronies we can be, we still respect Amal as our mother organisation created by Imam Musa al Sadr. Even within Amal you will find disagreement and discontent among its members. There have been a few cases that have come into public knowledge - of Amal members either resigning or being forced to resign because they voiced discontent. Mohammad Obeid is one such example. He is very critical of Berri and he was part of Amal's leadership structure, and after leaving his position he still sympathetic to Amal as the movement of Imam Imam Musa al Sadr and he is also pro Hezballah. Maybe we can also call him an ex Amal member and an independent pro Hezballah Shia Lebanese.


     
    I

    illusion84

    Member
    No he is not finished, even he decides to step out. Unless if Hezbollah chooses to run against him, even in this case Amal can still get around 20 % of the votes.
    Unfortunately there are no other serious replacement for him.
    7irak is still weak in Shiaas regions and not organised.
    I can think of communist party, but I don't think they can gather more than 15 % from the votes. And in this case they will still be minorities.

    From total SHIAA votes I expect the following forecast in the next elections.

    Communists+ 7irak + Independents 20 %
    14 March and allies 15 %
    Amal 25 %
    Hizballah 40 %
    Ya reit

    Fixed your numbers for you...

    From total SHIAA votes I expect the following forecast in the next elections.

    Communists+ 7irak + Independents 5 %
    14 March and allies 1 %
    Amal 14 %
    Hizballah 80 %
    If HA/Amal still gets 94% of Shia votes after all what's going on this country is doomed!
     
    Jacques Hirac

    Jacques Hirac

    New Member
    @Rafidi , thanks for better explaining the HA/Amal bond.
    If I understood correctly, there are some kind of historic and religious bonds between the two parties that make them inseparable.
    Will watch the vids later.
    However, from my point of view, this bond does not mean much in politics. I think it is even a liability.
    Under these conditions, if this "lebnen deyra wahde" thing ever reaches fruition, even as an HA sympathizer, I am more likely to vote for independent candidates than to vote for HA themselves.

    There are many, many, many independent Shia who are pro Hezballah
    Such profiles, do they join on HA/Amal lists in elections or do they run as independents?
    If they choose to run in separate lists as independents, is it perceived as some kind of treachery or threat to Shia unity?
     
    JeanH

    JeanH

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    No he is not finished, even he decides to step out. Unless if Hezbollah chooses to run against him, even in this case Amal can still get around 20 % of the votes.
    Unfortunately there are no other serious replacement for him.
    7irak is still weak in Shiaas regions and not organised.
    I can think of communist party, but I don't think they can gather more than 15 % from the votes. And in this case they will still be minorities.

    From total SHIAA votes I expect the following forecast in the next elections.

    Communists+ 7irak + Independents 20 %
    14 March and allies 15 %
    Amal 25 %
    Hizballah 40 %
    bruhh in no way shape or form amal and HA will get less than 90% of shiaa vote in the next elections, kabber 3a2lak ya zalame, 7irak and communist 20 %lol
     
    Muki

    Muki

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    No he is not finished, even he decides to step out. Unless if Hezbollah chooses to run against him, even in this case Amal can still get around 20 % of the votes.
    Unfortunately there are no other serious replacement for him.
    7irak is still weak in Shiaas regions and not organised.
    I can think of communist party, but I don't think they can gather more than 15 % from the votes. And in this case they will still be minorities.

    From total SHIAA votes I expect the following forecast in the next elections.

    Communists+ 7irak + Independents 20 %
    14 March and allies 15 %
    Amal 25 %
    Hizballah 40 %
    lol this post is hilarious
     
    Rafidi

    Rafidi

    Legendary Member
    @Rafidi , thanks for better explaining the HA/Amal bond.
    If I understood correctly, there are some kind of historic and religious bonds between the two parties that make them inseparable.
    Will watch the vids later.
    However, from my point of view, this bond does not mean much in politics. I think it is even a liability.
    Under these conditions, if this "lebnen deyra wahde" thing ever reaches fruition, even as an HA sympathizer, I am more likely to vote for independent candidates than to vote for HA themselves.
    If Lebanon is taken as one electoral district, and based on a non sectarian electoral law and one man - one vote law is passed, many independents will gain voice. The true size of every politician and party and line of thinking will manifest. Under a de-sectarianized Lebanon, I wont mind voting for independents who are pro resistance.

    Such profiles, do they join on HA/Amal lists in elections or do they run as independents?
    If they choose to run in separate lists as independents, is it perceived as some kind of treachery or threat to Shia unity?
    I think you should ask first about the voters, not the candidates. Most would vote for Hezballah.

    As for the candidates, recently, during the byelection in Tyr to replace Nawwaf el Musawi, Bashra al Khalil (who's a favourite for me) had to withdraw her candidacy for Hassan Izziddine to win unchallenged. Hezballah met with her and I dont know how they were able to convince her to withdraw her candidacy (we'd see in the next election if Hezballah will file her as a candidate. Possible agreement). She is a prominent lawyer, who defended Saddam Hussein in his trial after he was arrested. She was Saddam's lawyer (quite an irony you may think). She's very much independent and pro Hezballah but still wanted to contest for MP. And she deserves to become an MP and I personally would vote for her. There are many prominent Shia voices who are not part and parcel of Hezballah but are even more pro Hezballah than a member of Hezballah himself might be. The role of resistance that Hezballah has played and made many sacrifices for and its successes cannot be overstated. No sincere and respectable Shia or Lebanese can deny, disrespect, downplay or neglect that role.
     
    I

    illusion84

    Member
    @Rafidi , thanks for better explaining the HA/Amal bond.
    If I understood correctly, there are some kind of historic and religious bonds between the two parties that make them inseparable.
    Will watch the vids later.
    However, from my point of view, this bond does not mean much in politics. I think it is even a liability.
    Under these conditions, if this "lebnen deyra wahde" thing ever reaches fruition, even as an HA sympathizer, I am more likely to vote for independent candidates than to vote for HA themselves.



    Such profiles, do they join on HA/Amal lists in elections or do they run as independents?
    If they choose to run in separate lists as independents, is it perceived as some kind of treachery or threat to Shia unity?
    Inseparable ? Of course; same as LF and FPM are inseparable as you may find supporters of both parties in the same family.

    You may find two brothers where one is HA supporter the other is an Amal supporter; however that does not mean that they like each others.

    Maybe the leadership of both parties are doing their best to preserve their "strategic" alliance; but the base hate each others same way as Ounists and LF followers.

    BTW even in the leadership they are not so fond of each others but مجبر أخاك لا بطل
     
    SAVO

    SAVO

    Member
    No he is not finished, even he decides to step out. Unless if Hezbollah chooses to run against him, even in this case Amal can still get around 20 % of the votes.
    Unfortunately there are no other serious replacement for him.
    7irak is still weak in Shiaas regions and not organised.
    I can think of communist party, but I don't think they can gather more than 15 % from the votes. And in this case they will still be minorities.

    From total SHIAA votes I expect the following forecast in the next elections.

    Communists+ 7irak + Independents 20 %
    14 March and allies 15 %
    Amal 25 %
    Hizballah 40 %

    Why you are assuming that comunist are exclusive in shia community ?
    As a matter of fact a large number of sunnis are in lcp .way more than shia..

    Beside communists are secular and think lebanese wise rather than a narrow sectarian wise ..
    The @Rafidi is affraid about some shia privilege gained during wissaya ..and have nothing to do with israel since comunists also fought against israel ..
    Lcp program is mostly economic and reformist and it is not a radical program..
     
    Last edited:
    Rafidi

    Rafidi

    Legendary Member
    Why you are assuming that comunist are exclusive in shia community ?
    As a matter of fact a large number of sunnis are in lcp .way more than shia..

    Beside communists are secular and think lebanese wise rather than a narrow sectarian wise ..
    The @Rafidi is affraid about some shia privilege gained during wissaya ..and have nothing to do with israel since comunists also fought against israel ..
    Lcp program is mostly economic and reformist and it is not a radical program..
    I have never enjoyed any government, political or sectarian favors or privileges. I am born and bred abroad. I only visit Lebanon.

    I do not fancy the communist party or anything communism because it is not our identity as a community. It is a foreign ideology. If we wont adapt to our sectarian identity, then we can adapt to our national identity as Lebanese through a civil state or secularism. Communism isnt an option for me. That is my opinion.
     
    Steven Gerrard

    Steven Gerrard

    New Member
    I have never enjoyed any government, political or sectarian favors or privileges. I am born and bred abroad. I only visit Lebanon.

    I do not fancy the communist party or anything communism because it is not our identity as a community. It is a foreign ideology. If we wont adapt to our sectarian identity, then we can adapt to our national identity as Lebanese through a civil state or secularism. Communism isnt an option for me. That is my opinion.
    I was born and raised in Beirut and I've seen enough to vote for an independent candidate in the elections. I never vote HA/Amal.

    They have continued the cycle of corruption, especially in the South where the infrastructure is so poor. Shia unity to me is an excuse and people are still living in the past when it comes to criticism. No one is denying resistance, but who will take accountability/responsibility over the poor standard of living in the South?
     
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