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Is this a good time to invest your LBPs in Real estate?

SoFP1

SoFP1

The Chosen One
Orange Room Supporter
When bankruptcy is eventually declared officially in Lebanon when they default on the next bond real estate will loose but also people who "number money" in a bank will get a haircut or headcut and everything will crumble, prices of real estate and bank accounts so everything will reflect what is exactly worth it, and people will not afford more the real estate they would own or they would want to own. so buying now or buying later, same shit really
Why wouldn't people afford what they own if you buy something in cash right now. Later on, even if the whole system crashes and there is a "head-cut" and a real estate collapse, the cash that disappears and never comes back but the property you own will gain its value back eventually.
 
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  • Mrsrx

    Mrsrx

    Somehow a Member
    Staff member
    When bankruptcy is eventually declared officially in Lebanon when they default on the next bond real estate will loose but also people who "number money" in a bank will get a haircut or headcut and everything will crumble, prices of real estate and bank accounts so everything will reflect what is exactly worth it, and people will not afford more the real estate they would own or they would want to own. so buying now or buying later, same shit really
    May seems to be secured (unfortunately). I agree it is a lose lose situation but the question now is how to hedge your assets keep it liquid or buy assets...this is the choices people have (or at least banks gave them)
     
    Mrsrx

    Mrsrx

    Somehow a Member
    Staff member
    Why wouldn't people afford what they own if you buy something in cash right now. Later on, even if the whole system crashes and there is a "head-cut" and a real estate collapse, the cash that disappears and never comes back but the property you own will gain its value back eventually.
    Not sure what danny meant but still can happen.
    If all your sources of revenue dry up and you only own real estate you would not be able to afford upkeep on it but that is fine you can abandon it for a while...the worse scenario if people have 0 liquidity and need cash for basics (food, electricity and so on) they will need to liquidate at a very low price and will not be able to wait it out to appreciate.
     
    SoFP1

    SoFP1

    The Chosen One
    Orange Room Supporter
    Not sure what danny meant but still can happen.
    If all your sources of revenue dry up and you only own real estate you would not be able to afford upkeep on it but that is fine you can abandon it for a while...the worse scenario if people have 0 liquidity and need cash for basics (food, electricity and so on) they will need to liquidate at a very low price and will not be able to wait it out to appreciate.
    It all depends on your situation. If you have $300K and you spend it all on real estate, you would not be acting wisely. If you have $300K (in Lebanon and in this situation), maybe buy something for $220K-$250K max.
     
    Mrsrx

    Mrsrx

    Somehow a Member
    Staff member
    It all depends on your situation. If you have $300K and you spend it all on real estate, you would not be acting wisely. If you have $300 (in Lebanon and in this situation), maybe buy something for $220K-$250K max.
    And if the haircut is very violent that would remove half of that as the central bank claims to garantee 75millions lbp? what does that leave people with the inflation (or hyperinflation)?
    Another scenario is an economic halt with expenses piling up...it might take a year or 2 but some panic buyers may struggle if the situation deteriorates.

    If it holds yes you are right.
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    Why wouldn't people afford what they own if you buy something in cash right now. Later on, even if the whole system crashes and there is a "head-cut" and a real estate collapse, the cash that disappears and never comes back but the property you own will gain its value back eventually.
    It will never come back, why would it come back, who would want to live in a shitty country that has no jobs and where people can't eat. Real estate would be a burden on those who own because they can't sell it and they need to maintain while most people will be immigrating in masses to make a living in a place where they can eat, a haircut you would still get some money maybe unless it is headcut,, but real estate might be worth less, who knows, whatever you can do to run to the doors is better, real estate like its name if french says: Immobilier you can't move it, but cash you're supposed to be able to, but then again, they ain't let you move it either, but if you can withdraw it then at least you are able to move it, but real estate is staying where it is at the price of the economy which is bankrupt...
     
    SoFP1

    SoFP1

    The Chosen One
    Orange Room Supporter
    It will never come back, why would it come back, who would want to live in a shitty country that has no jobs and where people can't eat. Real estate would be a burden on those who own because they can't sell it and they need to maintain while most people will be immigrating in masses to make a living in a place where they can eat, a haircut you would still get some money maybe unless it is headcut,, but real estate might be worth less, who knows, whatever you can do to run to the doors is better, real estate like its name if french says: Immobilier you can't move it, but cash you're supposed to be able to, but then again, they ain't let you move it either, but if you can withdraw it then at least you are able to move it, but real estate is staying where it is at the price of the economy which is bankrupt...
    The US Dollar that we have in Leb banks is worthless. You can't withdraw it. you can't import anything with it for trade. You can only buy perishables with it (no gold coins using checks, only cash). The best and longest lasting thing you can buy with it is real estate. if not in 2 years, it will be in 5 or 7 or 10 years. The country won't cease to exist. Even if it does, something else will emerge in its place. Real estate will eventually appreciate regardless in what country or legal entity it is in. Anyway, whatever money I am buying with is not so significant to my net worth. It is just useless leb USD in the bank that will be subject to haircut or head-cut.
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    The US Dollar that we have in Leb banks is worthless. You can't withdraw it. you can't import anything with it for trade. You can only buy perishables with it (no gold coins using checks, only cash). The best and longest lasting thing you can buy with it is real estate. if not in 2 years, it will be in 5 or 7 or 10 years. The country won't cease to exist. Even if it does, something else will emerge in its place. Real estate will eventually appreciate regardless in what country or legal entity it is in. Anyway, whatever money I am buying with is not so significant to my net worth. It is just useless leb USD in the bank that will be subject to haircut or head-cut.

    Prices will not appreciate, they will stay deflated of even depreciate.
    Here is what happened in Venezuela. Things are not rosier in Lebanon


    You might end up selling for 1Euro just like they are doing in some Italy towns...
     
    SoFP1

    SoFP1

    The Chosen One
    Orange Room Supporter
    Prices will not appreciate, they will stay deflated of even depreciate.
    Here is what happened in Venezuela. Things are not rosier in Lebanon


    You might end up selling for 1Euro just like they are doing in some Italy towns...
    Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. They are being bankrupt on purpose. I don't believe we are the same.
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves in the world. They are being bankrupt on purpose. I don't believe we are the same.
    It is all about offer and demand, if there is offer and no demand on housing the prices will drop and they can stay low for a very long time. Detroit is your best example.
     
    Mrsrx

    Mrsrx

    Somehow a Member
    Staff member
    Prices will not appreciate, they will stay deflated of even depreciate.
    Here is what happened in Venezuela. Things are not rosier in Lebanon


    You might end up selling for 1Euro just like they are doing in some Italy towns...
    Lebanon is a very very very dense country (in all its meanings).
    If prices crash any form of stability will make them rebound due to the size/population there will always be demand
     
    SoFP1

    SoFP1

    The Chosen One
    Orange Room Supporter
    It is all about offer and demand, if there is offer and no demand on housing the prices will drop and they can stay low for a very long time. Detroit is your best example.
    So a house that you can actually use (a summer house for me in Lebanon) isn't better than $0 in the bank? It is a no brainer dude. Common.
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    Lebanon is a very very very dense country (in all its meanings).
    If prices crash any form of stability will make them rebound due to the size/population there will always be demand
    demand with nobody able to buy deflates prices too, it is not like the Lebanese can afford it better in 10 years, and there are no international investors that will be interested in investing in this country today let alone after it is bankrupted, if they do is because the prices are so deflated that they can live almost for free.
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    So a house that you can actually use (a summer house for me in Lebanon) isn't better than $0 in the bank? It is a no brainer dude. Common.
    Not sure it is zero $ in the bank, you can still get 200$ a week.
     
    SoFP1

    SoFP1

    The Chosen One
    Orange Room Supporter
    demand with nobody able to buy deflates prices too, it is not like the Lebanese can afford it better in 10 years, and there are no international investors that will be interested in investing in this country today let alone after it is bankrupted, if they do is because the prices are so deflated that they can live almost for free.
    Do you live in Lebanon Danny?
     
    SoFP1

    SoFP1

    The Chosen One
    Orange Room Supporter
    Not sure it is zero $ in the bank, you can still get 200$ a week.
    lol 200 x 52 = 10,400 per year. 10 years to get $100K Common man,. It is $0. $200 not anymore, most banks are down to $100 per week and SGBL is not $50 a week.
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    lol 200 x 52 = 10,400 per year. 10 years to get $100K Common man,. It is $0. $200 not anymore, most banks are down to $100 per week and SGBL is not $50 a week.
    so why would anybody buy in Lebanon if they can't get 50$ a week. People are not even getting their salaries in LBP. Soon everybody will be selling to leave the country and then the prices will even go lower. this is why they are shoving down the throats ads to buy as they are stuck with a lot of housing stock that they know they can't sell and will be worth less with time.

    Their catching phrase is what you are telling me. that real estate is better than money that you can't withdraw.



    Well only if you can't leave Lebanon you need real estate but if you can leave then why get stuck with something you might never be able to get rid off, some people who live abroad are actually getting their money when they are threatening with lawsuits. Worst case scenario you get a haircut, if you get a headcut then the whole country is doomed anyway.
    I advise people to leave, real estate actually goes against the direction I am giving as it forces you to stay...if you're staying there regardless then buy because you are staying in it, but it is not a good investment.
     
    Nonan

    Nonan

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    So the banks artin our deposits and are acting like spoiled kids ....

    is it a good time to buy real estate to "secure" your deposits especially if you have accounts in LBP ?
    There is another alternative almost as secure as LBP bank deposits and real estate. Nigerian princes trapped in Nigeria in need of a bank account to wire money.
    I’m told it’s a sure bet with over 50% returns
     
    Telex

    Telex

    New Member
    so why would anybody buy in Lebanon if they can't get 50$ a week. People are not even getting their salaries in LBP. Soon everybody will be selling to leave the country and then the prices will even go lower. this is why they are shoving down the throats ads to buy as they are stuck with a lot of housing stock that they know they can't sell and will be worth less with time.

    Their catching phrase is what you are telling me. that real estate is better than money that you can't withdraw.



    Well only if you can't leave Lebanon you need real estate but if you can leave then why get stuck with something you might never be able to get rid off, some people who live abroad are actually getting their money when they are threatening with lawsuits. Worst case scenario you get a haircut, if you get a headcut then the whole country is doomed anyway.
    I advise people to leave, real estate actually goes against the direction I am giving as it forces you to stay...if you're staying there regardless then buy because you are staying in it, but it is not a good investment.
    For them to be accepting payments and even offering to "hold" your position until the maturity date of funds says a-lot, maybe there will be no haircut after all? I hope we wakeup and this is all just a bad dream.
     
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