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Is this a good time to invest your LBPs in Real estate?

SoFP1

SoFP1

The Chosen One
Orange Room Supporter
so why would anybody buy in Lebanon if they can't get 50$ a week. People are not even getting their salaries in LBP. Soon everybody will be selling to leave the country and then the prices will even go lower. this is why they are shoving down the throats ads to buy as they are stuck with a lot of housing stock that they know they can't sell and will be worth less with time.

Their catching phrase is what you are telling me. that real estate is better than money that you can't withdraw.



Well only if you can't leave Lebanon you need real estate but if you can leave then why get stuck with something you might never be able to get rid off, some people who live abroad are actually getting their money when they are threatening with lawsuits. Worst case scenario you get a haircut, if you get a headcut then the whole country is doomed anyway.
I advise people to leave, real estate actually goes against the direction I am giving as it forces you to stay...if you're staying there regardless then buy because you are staying in it, but it is not a good investment.
Leave? What about their useless USD in lebanese banks? Leave it to be taken away? You are missing the point.
 
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  • shadow1

    shadow1

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Leave? What about their useless USD in lebanese banks? Leave it to be taken away? You are missing the point.
    that is exactly that: useless. I can understand if you have money in the bank you want to cling to straws. The reality is something else. The banks have most of their money lent to the govt and the govt is broke with no hope of repaying. And also a lot of money lent to the private sector is now well and truly in the bad debt category. So if banks were to report their finances according to international accounting standards they are well and truly insolvent. That means what you hold in the bank is gone. Otehrwise they would give pple more than 100 or 200 a week.
    What is needed now is a govt to restore some confidence. But this is Lebanon and like I said a million times its politicians are not fit to run a ghost town with one stray cat in it.
    So as sad as it is, bite the bullet and go on and try to build from scratch. If by a miraculous act you get some of your deposits back treat it as the returnof the prodigal son.
     
    Mrsrx

    Mrsrx

    Not an expert!
    Staff member
    that is exactly that: useless. I can understand if you have money in the bank you want to cling to straws. The reality is something else. The banks have most of their money lent to the govt and the govt is broke with no hope of repaying. And also a lot of money lent to the private sector is now well and truly in the bad debt category. So if banks were to report their finances according to international accounting standards they are well and truly insolvent. That means what you hold in the bank is gone. Otehrwise they would give pple more than 100 or 200 a week.
    What is needed now is a govt to restore some confidence. But this is Lebanon and like I said a million times its politicians are not fit to run a ghost town with one stray cat in it.
    So as sad as it is, bite the bullet and go on and try to build from scratch. If by a miraculous act you get some of your deposits back treat it as the returnof the prodigal son.
    That is exactly the point why a house can be a good idea...worst case you have a house thats is worthless....but still if your wife kicks you out you will crash there and invite your friends for whiskey and cigars
     
    shadow1

    shadow1

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    That is exactly the point why a house can be a good idea...worst case you have a house thats is worthless....but still if your wife kicks you out you will crash there and invite your friends for whiskey and cigars
    if you can get your hands on the money why not send it overseas (my acct no 023987653245536618257788602). What Danny told you is not only possible but very probable. Real estate value will go down no doubt. If you cant get it overseas real estate may probably be your best option next to having it secure from robbers in Lebanon. Make no mistake robberies will grow exponentially . Just imagine a scenario where govt cant pay salaries (without printing money) why would any of the security forces in Lebanon do their job? After all they are in it for the money and nothing else. The total breakdown in law and order will be frightening. Buy a gun or an automatic rifle.
     
    Mrsrx

    Mrsrx

    Not an expert!
    Staff member
    if you can get your hands on the money why not send it overseas (my acct no 023987653245536618257788602). What Danny told you is not only possible but very probable. Real estate value will go down no doubt. If you cant get it overseas real estate may probably be your best option next to having it secure from robbers in Lebanon. Make no mistake robberies will grow exponentially . Just imagine a scenario where govt cant pay salaries (without printing money) why would any of the security forces in Lebanon do their job? After all they are in it for the money and nothing else. The total breakdown in law and order will be frightening. Buy a gun or an automatic rifle.
    I think all of our accounts are overseas. @SoFP1 and my point are both obviously considering that you cannot get the USD out of a lebanese bank account to a foreign one....if so kenit ma7loule
    its between let it rot or buy smth that may keep some value
     
    shadow1

    shadow1

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I think all of our accounts are overseas. @SoFP1 and my point are both obviously considering that you cannot get the USD out of a lebanese bank account to a foreign one....if so kenit ma7loule
    its between let it rot or buy smth that may keep some value
    how would you pay for real estate if u cant get your money out of the bank? I am not clear on this point. If you have it overseas keep it there and dont even consider repatriating a cent. I am waiting for the dollar to hit 6000000ll so I can buy it
     
    SoFP1

    SoFP1

    The Chosen One
    Orange Room Supporter
    how would you pay for real estate if u cant get your money out of the bank? I am not clear on this point. If you have it overseas keep it there and dont even consider repatriating a cent. I am waiting for the dollar to hit 6000000ll so I can buy it
    You can buy with a check, local check only. It is like swapping worthless money with a property!
     
    Mrsrx

    Mrsrx

    Not an expert!
    Staff member
    how would you pay for real estate if u cant get your money out of the bank? I am not clear on this point. If you have it overseas keep it there and dont even consider repatriating a cent. I am waiting for the dollar to hit 6000000ll so I can buy it
    Prices are up because banks are trying to lower liabilities by doing the following:

    Construction company took a loan of 1 Million dollars
    Person A has 500 K dollars
    Person B has 500 K dollars

    bank is at 0+ interest on paper but in reality
    construction is going broke it will never pay back
    Person As money does not really exist and the bank owes it to him
    Same for person B

    Person A asks to buy with his $ an appartment built by the construction company
    construction company promises this money to clear its loans ...same does person B

    The exchange of hands of this property removed 1 million of liability owed to persons A and B
    and removed 1 million of bad debt as well so the babk hedged their position.
    Banks are encouraging this trying to limit their losses so they are recommending and facilitating this type of transactions so prices are going up and banks are happy to see that because they will need less transactions

    At some point demand will go down and with the haircut the economy will get worse so real estate will drop live every other asset.

    That was my point and saying yes you would own that property that will maybe lose 40% of its value mid term...and lets hope ot goes back up long term for you.
     
    shadow1

    shadow1

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Banks are encouraging this trying to limit their losses so they are recommending and facilitating this type of transactions so prices are going up and banks are happy to see that because they will need less transactions
    I read this in a newpaper. Is it being done or just hearsay? If it is you are right in your approach I would do that without any hesitation only because anything is better than nothing. Financially Lebanon now is a state no other country has ever experienced.
    Buy land not dwellings because it is a simply a matter of time before the security situation collapses entirely. The clock is ticking very fast.
     
    Mrsrx

    Mrsrx

    Not an expert!
    Staff member
    I read this in a newpaper. Is it being done or just hearsay? If it is you are right in your approach I would do that without any hesitation only because anything is better than nothing. Financially Lebanon now is a state no other country has ever experienced.
    Buy land not dwellings because it is a simply a matter of time before the security situation collapses entirely. The clock is ticking very fast.
    Ive heard of real examples of this happening (family friends were able to sell of buy).
    Careful though this is an artificial bubble as i mentionned at the end of what i quoted ...houses will lose a lot of value the real question is take out your cash in LBP go to an exchange and buy dollars at the current rate. Take the loss in cash or bet on real estate going up if the money is not vital for now and you have a stash in a foreign bank (accept the 35 to 40% forex loss vs buy a house thay may devalue as well)...these are the options people are left with i think (@SoFP1 correct me if im wrong about being able to switch USD to LBP)
     
    SoFP1

    SoFP1

    The Chosen One
    Orange Room Supporter
    Ive heard of real examples of this happening (family friends were able to sell of buy).
    Careful though this is an artificial bubble as i mentionned at the end of what i quoted ...houses will lose a lot of value the real question is take out your cash in LBP go to an exchange and buy dollars at the current rate. Take the loss in cash or bet on real estate going up if the money is not vital for now and you have a stash in a foreign bank (accept the 35 to 40% forex loss vs buy a house thay may devalue as well)...these are the options people are left with i think (@SoFP1 correct me if im wrong about being able to switch USD to LBP)
    Yes you can switch USD to LBP, then LBP to USD at the unofficial rate, now you will lose 50% at today's rate (2250). You can only withdraw around 10MM LBP per week (yes there are also restrictions to withdraw LBP) so by the time you withdraw a big amount, the exchange rate might be even higher and the loss is greater.
     
    الحرس الجمهوري

    الحرس الجمهوري

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Yes you can switch USD to LBP, then LBP to USD at the unofficial rate, now you will lose 50% at today's rate (2250). You can only withdraw around 10MM LBP per week (yes there are also restrictions to withdraw LBP) so by the time you withdraw a big amount, the exchange rate might be even higher and the loss is greater.
    Riad Salameh said that Banks are not required by law to give you USD bills.
    But what about the restrictions on LBP withdrawals. Is this legal too?
     
    shadow1

    shadow1

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Riad Salameh said that Banks are not required by law to give you USD bills.
    At the official rate so you effectively lost 40% of your dollar deposits and considering inflation so we are up to our ears in it. I need someone efficient in numbers to give me the right percentage.
     
    الحرس الجمهوري

    الحرس الجمهوري

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    At the official rate so you effectively lost 40% of your dollar deposits and considering inflation so we are up to our ears in it. I need someone efficient in numbers to give me the right percentage.
    You mean if one decides to withdraw his deposits in LBP?
    I don't think it's a good idea.

    I was just questioning the legality of putting restrictions on LBP withdrawals.
    Riad 7amemeh failed to address this part during his interview.

    He defended the banks' right not to hand out dollars but ignored the fact they're also placing limits on LBP withdrawals.
     
    Telex

    Telex

    New Member
    If one more person talks about the loss of LBP i am going to have a stroke.
     
    LEBANESE-CIA

    LEBANESE-CIA

    Legendary Member
    The haircut is already in action, the bank are fixing the dollar price at 1507 LL while people are rushing to withdraw theor LIRA and going to SARRAF to exchange it for 2500 + they are loosing 1000 LL to the dollar ( that is already a 66 % haircut)

    Now the banks are making money from this mechanism, HOW ? they give the dollars to SARRAF he sells the dollar at 2500 LL and they split the profit between banks (legal crooks) and sarraf (secondary crooks)

    The burden is paid by the ordinary lebanese depositor.

    none of the official has addressed this issue yet since the crisis started. ALL lies and ALL shy to approach reality.


    Now we are in a Catch 22 situation,, If you have $ you cant transfer abraod, and they give you few hundreds per week.
    if you have LL and you wish to convert it in the bank to dollar the price is 1520 , but you have to put it for 15 months term deposits.
    (now in this scenario , who knows what happen next month let alone in 15 months , and you still cant access the $$ because it is term deposit.)

    If you want to withdraw your LL and convert it to dollar in the secondary market (sarraf) you loose over 60% of the value.

    The lebanese are screwed big time Due to the mismanagment of the corrupt banks , central banck and the MAFIA cartel since then 1990's .


    N.B each lebanese bank dealing with $ has a corresponding bank oversease(USA), each bank deposit money abroad. this is considered bank assets abroad. A class action law suit or individual law suit against any lebanese bank in USA with smart lawyer handling the case can appease the court to freeze assets equivalent to the money owed by the bank to the client (YOU) ( of course after the bank refuse to transfer the money abroad).

    The plan by the corrupt mafia from the central bank to the banks to berri jublat hariri and the whole corrupted officials is to do not Haircut but HEADCUT. My they all rest in hell, say inshallah!
     
    J

    joseph_lubnan

    Legendary Member
    I do not think it is a good time to buy anything in Lebanon now. Your best option is to wait until a path emerges. Unfortunately the politicians are delaying. Had they formed a good government quickly you would have seen the path forward emerge already. The biggest threat to Lebanon today are those in charge of forming its government, regardless of levels of debts and corruption.

    If you want to fix anything, force your politicians to form a good confidence-inspiring government.
     
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