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Lebanon’s Economic crisis - Reasons And Way outs

Resign

Resign

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
Action Plan for Avoiding a Lost Decade
FIRAS ABI NASSIF, EDWARD ASSEILY, BILAL BAZZY, HALA BEJANI, AMER BISAT, HENRI CHAOUL, ISHAC DIWAN, HANEEN EL SAYED, ALI EL REDA YOUSSEF, SAEB EL ZEIN, NABIL FAHED, PHILIPPE JABR, SAMI NADER, MAY NASRALLAH, PAUL RAPHAEL, JEAN RIACHI, NISREEN SALTI, KAMAL SHEHADI, NASSER SAIDI, MAHA YAHYA, BASSAM YAMMINE, GERARD ZOUEIN
  • JANUARY 06, 2020
  • A CITIZEN INITIATIVE
Summary: An independent group of development specialists, economists and finance experts met in Beirut late-December to discuss the ongoing economic crisis and the path forward. This note summarizes the deliberations and puts forth a ten-point action plan meant to arrest the crisis and place the country on a path of sustained recovery.


HOW DID WE GET HERE?
The economic crisis is, at its core, a governance crisis emanating from a dysfunctional sectarian system that hindered rational policymaking and permitted a culture of corruption and waste. The country, led by the public sector, lived beyond its means. Decades of pursuing this model left the economy with high debt and a bloated banking sector.

Inevitably, the dramatic debt increase resulted in an-expanding debt-servicingburden. The large yearly funding needs rendered the country vulnerable to external and regional shocks. As external financial flows into Lebanon slowed, the central bank resorted to desperate and extremely expensive efforts to attract them. Ultimately, this proved unsustainable. Since October, we’ve had a virtual cessation of capital inflows and a sharp acceleration of outflows.

WHERE ARE WE NOW?
This situation leaves the country with three simultaneous crises.

The first is a balance of payments and currency crisis. For 2020, we estimate the gap between USD supply and USD demand at $8 billion. If this gap is not filled, the economy will experience difficulties including the servicing of external debt, imported goods’ shortages, currency devaluation, and economic contraction.

The second crisis is that of public finance.Beginning with a 10 percent of GDP deficit in 2019, government revenues are now collapsing under the weight of the recession and the banking crisis described below. Inflation-adjusted spending is also crumbling. We estimate a $3 billion primary budget deficit (excluding interest payments) for 2020. In the current situation, funding this deficit will prove challenging.

The third crisis is that of the banking system. With almost half of banks’ assets invested in Lebanese sovereign risk including with the Banque du Liban (BDL) and another quarter representing risky private sector claims, banks are effectively insolvent and illiquid. Despite the loose and inefficient capital and banking controls recently put in place, the sector is experiencing a deposit run. In similar international experiences, the central bank usually steps in and provides the liquidity that banks need. However, the BdL is constrained by its limited USD reserves and by fears that an oversupply of LBP would lead to further currency weakening.

CONSEQUENCES OF CONTINUING ON THE CURRENT PATH
Persisting with the current ad hoc approach to policy making will lead Lebanon on a path of implosion and political disintegration. We foresee seven consequences:

  1. The economy will experience a deep recession.USD shortages will force the economy to adjust to lower imports. Bank and capital controls will hit a private sector that is dependent on liquidity and credit; business closures, salary reductions, and layoffs have already become common. The public sector will retrench given difficult financing conditions. Under this scenario, we forecast the economy will experience a double-digit contraction in 2020—i.e., a recession equivalent to what the US experienced during the Great Depression.
  2. The Foreign Exchange (FX) will weaken sharply. The LBP will adjust downwards to bring the supply and demand of USD into balance. Left to its own devices, we estimate the FX could lose up to half its value leading to high inflation. In turn, this will have a massive negative impact on the cost of living, the availability of essential goods, food and healthcare, businesses and unemployment.
  3. Capital and bank controls will intensify. Banks will continue rationing deposit withdrawals and external transfers. The private sector’s liquidity crunch will deepen and disorderly and un-managed debt defaults (including on Eurobonds) will prove inevitable. BdL will hemorrhage international reserves.
  4. Debilitating social conditions will intensify.This kind of economic collapse will cause catastrophic wealth destruction. Poverty rates could rise to more than 40 percent of the Lebanese population with 1.6 million people unable to afford food and basic nonfood items. Unemployment will increase and much of the middle class could be eliminated.
  5. A seismic political shift is likely to occur. The current political parties will not emerge unscathed. The security repercussions of social unrest will be significant and difficult to predict.
  6. Without addressing the root causes, the crises will prove long lasting. To put it in stark terms, this would become a decade long economic crisis—one from which chances of recovery are significantly dim. A “lost decade” will result from this scenario.
  7. Finally, international financial support is likely to fall far short of what is needed to relieve the economy.
IS THERE A BETTER APPROACH?
We think there is. Below we outline a three-year program that aims to arrest the crisis, deal with its root causes and set the country back on a path of recovery. The program seeks to ensure equitable burden sharing of the crisis’ fallout while protecting the most vulnerable especially during the period of transition. The ten concrete steps below should be implemented in parallel rather than piecemeal.

  1. Establish an empowered economic emergency steering committee to design, negotiate and implement the program. In parallel, create participatory mechanisms to discuss with civil society the policy package, and to empower citizens to monitor its implementation.
  2. Replace the ad hoc and self-administered capital and banking controls. Controls are likely needed for an extended period even in the best of scenarios. They need to be run in a centralized and transparent fashion backed by proper legislation.
  3. Decisively deal with public sector debt.Immediately announce a moratorium on debt payments (external and domestic), hire legal counsel, and convene a creditor’s committee. Our view is that Lebanon’s fundamentals justify a debt load ranging between 60 and 80 percent of GDP over the medium term. To reach this target, creditors should be offered a menu of concessions including lower principal, reduced interest rates, and extended maturities.
  4. Embark on a credible fiscal reform. Public spending, currently inefficient, wasteful, and vulnerable to corruption, must be transformed. The electricity sector is but one example. A wholesale governance and regulatory reform program is needed to curb the rent seeking culture. These reforms, along with savings accruing from lower debt servicing, should allow for increased spending on social sectors and infrastructure. Second, a broad revenue reform is needed that focuses less on raising tax rates and more on addressing weak collection and overt reliance on specific sectors. Third, we recommend the adoption of a binding and credible “fiscal rule” that caps the size of future budget deficits.
  5. Deal with private sector debt. The private sector is facing a severe crisis. Convene a creditor/debtor roundtable to agree on a standardized menu of financial relief actions aiming to safeguard viable firms while orderly liquidating those that aren’t. The existing draft Bankruptcy and Restructuring law should be promptly passed.
  6. Repair BdL’s balance sheet. BDL is a large lender to the government and has an estimated USD30 billion negative net FX position rendering it vulnerable to devaluations. Until this is dealt with, it is tough to see confidence in the LBP returning.
  7. Bring the banking sector back to health as a prerequisite to reinvigorating the economy. Public debt restructuring and mounting Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) will render many banks insolvent. Complicating matters, banks are highly exposed to the BdL whose own balance sheet is impaired. Current bank equity is far from sufficient to cover these hits. Our estimates suggest $20-25 billion of fresh capital is urgently needed. Current shareholders need to assume the losses and be required to bring in fresh capital. This may also necessitate a reduction in the number of banks. In parallel, foreign loans and State assets could conceivably be used to recapitalize the sector (see below). As the above is not likely to be enough, there is a near certain need for reducing portions of large deposits and swapping them into bank equity.
  8. Preserve social peace through a focus on social justice. This involves a distribution of losses that is concentrated on the richest in society while sparing small bank depositors. Foreign funding should be used to blunt the pain of adjustment. A safety net must be put in place to fight poverty and support health and education. And workers should be helped to transition out of decaying sectors into those that benefit from the devaluation.
  9. Re-think the FX/monetary policy mix. The fixed (and overvalued) exchange rate regime has contributed to large current account deficits, hurt export-oriented sectors, andforced BdL to maintain elevated interest rates. Looking forward, we recommend a more flexible exchange rate arrangement centered around a weaker LBP. However, until confidence in the LBP returns, it will be dangerous to allow the currency to freely float. Some form of currency management will have to be maintained for the medium term.
  10. Secure a multi-year Stabilization and Structural Reform Facility. We estimate that a three-year $25 billion fund is needed. This facility should be used to shore up BDL’s net reserves, help fund the immediate government budgetary needs, finance badly needed social spending, and contribute to bank recapitalization. The economic program recommended above can garner this kind of support, including from the World Bank, the EU, and the GCC. However, it will realistically require an IMF program as an umbrella. We also think there is scope to partly fund this facility with state assets and possibly hoped-for oil and gas revenues. We cannot overstate the importance of good governance, transparency and accountability in this regard.
CONCLUSION
The consequences of the current path are catastrophic. Delays will only increase dislocation, exponentially magnify the needed adjustment, and place the burden on those least able to shoulder it. A better option is available. It won’t be easy, may at times prove painful and will certainly require a new social contract. But we sincerely believe this approach will pave the way to a better and prosperous future.

SIGNATORIES (IN THEIR PERSONAL CAPACITIES)
Firas Abi Nassif, Edward Asseily, Bilal Bazzy, Hala Bejani, Amer Bisat, Henri Chaoul, Ishac Diwan, Haneen El Sayed, Ali El Reda Youssef, Saeb el Zein, Nabil Fahed, Philippe Jabr, Sami Nader, May Nasrallah, Paul Raphael, Jean Riachi, Nisreen Salti, Nasser Saidi, Kamal Shehadi, Maha Yahya, Baasam Yammine, Gerard Zouein
 
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  • Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Posting this here to read it later

    source:
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    Action Plan for Avoiding a Lost Decade
    FIRAS ABI NASSIF, EDWARD ASSEILY, BILAL BAZZY, HALA BEJANI, AMER BISAT, HENRI CHAOUL, ISHAC DIWAN, HANEEN EL SAYED, ALI EL REDA YOUSSEF, SAEB EL ZEIN, NABIL FAHED, PHILIPPE JABR, SAMI NADER, MAY NASRALLAH, PAUL RAPHAEL, JEAN RIACHI, NISREEN SALTI, KAMAL SHEHADI, NASSER SAIDI, MAHA YAHYA, BASSAM YAMMINE, GERARD ZOUEIN
    • JANUARY 06, 2020
    • A CITIZEN INITIATIVE
    Summary: An independent group of development specialists, economists and finance experts met in Beirut late-December to discuss the ongoing economic crisis and the path forward. This note summarizes the deliberations and puts forth a ten-point action plan meant to arrest the crisis and place the country on a path of sustained recovery.


    HOW DID WE GET HERE?
    The economic crisis is, at its core, a governance crisis emanating from a dysfunctional sectarian system that hindered rational policymaking and permitted a culture of corruption and waste. The country, led by the public sector, lived beyond its means. Decades of pursuing this model left the economy with high debt and a bloated banking sector.

    Inevitably, the dramatic debt increase resulted in an-expanding debt-servicingburden. The large yearly funding needs rendered the country vulnerable to external and regional shocks. As external financial flows into Lebanon slowed, the central bank resorted to desperate and extremely expensive efforts to attract them. Ultimately, this proved unsustainable. Since October, we’ve had a virtual cessation of capital inflows and a sharp acceleration of outflows.

    WHERE ARE WE NOW?
    This situation leaves the country with three simultaneous crises.

    The first is a balance of payments and currency crisis. For 2020, we estimate the gap between USD supply and USD demand at $8 billion. If this gap is not filled, the economy will experience difficulties including the servicing of external debt, imported goods’ shortages, currency devaluation, and economic contraction.

    The second crisis is that of public finance.Beginning with a 10 percent of GDP deficit in 2019, government revenues are now collapsing under the weight of the recession and the banking crisis described below. Inflation-adjusted spending is also crumbling. We estimate a $3 billion primary budget deficit (excluding interest payments) for 2020. In the current situation, funding this deficit will prove challenging.

    The third crisis is that of the banking system. With almost half of banks’ assets invested in Lebanese sovereign risk including with the Banque du Liban (BDL) and another quarter representing risky private sector claims, banks are effectively insolvent and illiquid. Despite the loose and inefficient capital and banking controls recently put in place, the sector is experiencing a deposit run. In similar international experiences, the central bank usually steps in and provides the liquidity that banks need. However, the BdL is constrained by its limited USD reserves and by fears that an oversupply of LBP would lead to further currency weakening.

    CONSEQUENCES OF CONTINUING ON THE CURRENT PATH
    Persisting with the current ad hoc approach to policy making will lead Lebanon on a path of implosion and political disintegration. We foresee seven consequences:

    1. The economy will experience a deep recession.USD shortages will force the economy to adjust to lower imports. Bank and capital controls will hit a private sector that is dependent on liquidity and credit; business closures, salary reductions, and layoffs have already become common. The public sector will retrench given difficult financing conditions. Under this scenario, we forecast the economy will experience a double-digit contraction in 2020—i.e., a recession equivalent to what the US experienced during the Great Depression.
    2. The Foreign Exchange (FX) will weaken sharply. The LBP will adjust downwards to bring the supply and demand of USD into balance. Left to its own devices, we estimate the FX could lose up to half its value leading to high inflation. In turn, this will have a massive negative impact on the cost of living, the availability of essential goods, food and healthcare, businesses and unemployment.
    3. Capital and bank controls will intensify. Banks will continue rationing deposit withdrawals and external transfers. The private sector’s liquidity crunch will deepen and disorderly and un-managed debt defaults (including on Eurobonds) will prove inevitable. BdL will hemorrhage international reserves.
    4. Debilitating social conditions will intensify.This kind of economic collapse will cause catastrophic wealth destruction. Poverty rates could rise to more than 40 percent of the Lebanese population with 1.6 million people unable to afford food and basic nonfood items. Unemployment will increase and much of the middle class could be eliminated.
    5. A seismic political shift is likely to occur. The current political parties will not emerge unscathed. The security repercussions of social unrest will be significant and difficult to predict.
    6. Without addressing the root causes, the crises will prove long lasting. To put it in stark terms, this would become a decade long economic crisis—one from which chances of recovery are significantly dim. A “lost decade” will result from this scenario.
    7. Finally, international financial support is likely to fall far short of what is needed to relieve the economy.
    IS THERE A BETTER APPROACH?
    We think there is. Below we outline a three-year program that aims to arrest the crisis, deal with its root causes and set the country back on a path of recovery. The program seeks to ensure equitable burden sharing of the crisis’ fallout while protecting the most vulnerable especially during the period of transition. The ten concrete steps below should be implemented in parallel rather than piecemeal.

    1. Establish an empowered economic emergency steering committee to design, negotiate and implement the program. In parallel, create participatory mechanisms to discuss with civil society the policy package, and to empower citizens to monitor its implementation.
    2. Replace the ad hoc and self-administered capital and banking controls. Controls are likely needed for an extended period even in the best of scenarios. They need to be run in a centralized and transparent fashion backed by proper legislation.
    3. Decisively deal with public sector debt.Immediately announce a moratorium on debt payments (external and domestic), hire legal counsel, and convene a creditor’s committee. Our view is that Lebanon’s fundamentals justify a debt load ranging between 60 and 80 percent of GDP over the medium term. To reach this target, creditors should be offered a menu of concessions including lower principal, reduced interest rates, and extended maturities.
    4. Embark on a credible fiscal reform. Public spending, currently inefficient, wasteful, and vulnerable to corruption, must be transformed. The electricity sector is but one example. A wholesale governance and regulatory reform program is needed to curb the rent seeking culture. These reforms, along with savings accruing from lower debt servicing, should allow for increased spending on social sectors and infrastructure. Second, a broad revenue reform is needed that focuses less on raising tax rates and more on addressing weak collection and overt reliance on specific sectors. Third, we recommend the adoption of a binding and credible “fiscal rule” that caps the size of future budget deficits.
    5. Deal with private sector debt. The private sector is facing a severe crisis. Convene a creditor/debtor roundtable to agree on a standardized menu of financial relief actions aiming to safeguard viable firms while orderly liquidating those that aren’t. The existing draft Bankruptcy and Restructuring law should be promptly passed.
    6. Repair BdL’s balance sheet. BDL is a large lender to the government and has an estimated USD30 billion negative net FX position rendering it vulnerable to devaluations. Until this is dealt with, it is tough to see confidence in the LBP returning.
    7. Bring the banking sector back to health as a prerequisite to reinvigorating the economy. Public debt restructuring and mounting Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) will render many banks insolvent. Complicating matters, banks are highly exposed to the BdL whose own balance sheet is impaired. Current bank equity is far from sufficient to cover these hits. Our estimates suggest $20-25 billion of fresh capital is urgently needed. Current shareholders need to assume the losses and be required to bring in fresh capital. This may also necessitate a reduction in the number of banks. In parallel, foreign loans and State assets could conceivably be used to recapitalize the sector (see below). As the above is not likely to be enough, there is a near certain need for reducing portions of large deposits and swapping them into bank equity.
    8. Preserve social peace through a focus on social justice. This involves a distribution of losses that is concentrated on the richest in society while sparing small bank depositors. Foreign funding should be used to blunt the pain of adjustment. A safety net must be put in place to fight poverty and support health and education. And workers should be helped to transition out of decaying sectors into those that benefit from the devaluation.
    9. Re-think the FX/monetary policy mix. The fixed (and overvalued) exchange rate regime has contributed to large current account deficits, hurt export-oriented sectors, andforced BdL to maintain elevated interest rates. Looking forward, we recommend a more flexible exchange rate arrangement centered around a weaker LBP. However, until confidence in the LBP returns, it will be dangerous to allow the currency to freely float. Some form of currency management will have to be maintained for the medium term.
    10. Secure a multi-year Stabilization and Structural Reform Facility. We estimate that a three-year $25 billion fund is needed. This facility should be used to shore up BDL’s net reserves, help fund the immediate government budgetary needs, finance badly needed social spending, and contribute to bank recapitalization. The economic program recommended above can garner this kind of support, including from the World Bank, the EU, and the GCC. However, it will realistically require an IMF program as an umbrella. We also think there is scope to partly fund this facility with state assets and possibly hoped-for oil and gas revenues. We cannot overstate the importance of good governance, transparency and accountability in this regard.
    CONCLUSION
    The consequences of the current path are catastrophic. Delays will only increase dislocation, exponentially magnify the needed adjustment, and place the burden on those least able to shoulder it. A better option is available. It won’t be easy, may at times prove painful and will certainly require a new social contract. But we sincerely believe this approach will pave the way to a better and prosperous future.

    SIGNATORIES (IN THEIR PERSONAL CAPACITIES)
    Firas Abi Nassif, Edward Asseily, Bilal Bazzy, Hala Bejani, Amer Bisat, Henri Chaoul, Ishac Diwan, Haneen El Sayed, Ali El Reda Youssef, Saeb el Zein, Nabil Fahed, Philippe Jabr, Sami Nader, May Nasrallah, Paul Raphael, Jean Riachi, Nisreen Salti, Nasser Saidi, Kamal Shehadi, Maha Yahya, Baasam Yammine, Gerard Zouein
    a very interesting article! the best part of it is the first sentence:
    "The economic crisis is, at its core, a governance crisis emanating from a dysfunctional sectarian system that hindered rational policymaking and permitted a culture of corruption and waste. "

    i have a feeling that all the proposals and suggestions that MIGHT work, will be hindered by the same system that got us here. Who trusts that the sharks who got us here will step back and allow such reform to happen... and why would they do it. Unless they are FORCED out... not only by the protesters in the street, but also by their supporters.
    You don't need to CURSE your leader if you are too attached to him and the umbilical cord cannot be broken, but AT LEAST do not show a blind allegiance... make them feel that your support rests on how they behave.
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    a very interesting article! the best part of it is the first sentence:
    "The economic crisis is, at its core, a governance crisis emanating from a dysfunctional sectarian system that hindered rational policymaking and permitted a culture of corruption and waste. "

    i have a feeling that all the proposals and suggestions that MIGHT work, will be hindered by the same system that got us here. Who trusts that the sharks who got us here will step back and allow such reform to happen... and why would they do it. Unless they are FORCED out... not only by the protesters in the street, but also by their supporters.
    You don't need to CURSE your leader if you are too attached to him and the umbilical cord cannot be broken, but AT LEAST do not show a blind allegiance... make them feel that your support rests on how they behave.
    You’re right
    But right now we have the golden opportunity to push for the change
    Why not have a government full of economists and financial experts like the people who wrote this article

    they have a plan already
    They can explain it to the people
    The people will trust them and let them govern

    what the hell is Diab’s plan ?
    Look at this joke of government they’re forming and how they’re forming it.

    if the people trust the government
    They will be the ones protecting it
    Partisans will flip once they see progress
    Others who want to revolt for the za3im will be instantly put in their place.

    Diab is a bad idea
    He did not address the nation
    He did not present any action plan
    He formed his government with zero transparency
    He will fail and this will prolong the crisis....
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    You’re right
    But right now we have the golden opportunity to push for the change
    Why not have a government full of economists and financial experts like the people who wrote this article

    they have a plan already
    They can explain it to the people
    The people will trust them and let them govern

    what the hell is Diab’s plan ?
    Look at this joke of government they’re forming and how they’re forming it.

    if the people trust the government
    They will be the ones protecting it
    Partisans will flip once they see progress
    Others who want to revolt for the za3im will be instantly put in their place.

    Diab is a bad idea
    He did not address the nation
    He did not present any action plan
    He formed his government with zero transparency
    He will fail and this will prolong the crisis....
    that's where i fault the revolution. This paper is great, and the economists/specialists behind it seem to know what they are talking about.
    Can you imagine if they were organized ? i am not saying necessarily a political party, call it an emergency committee! whatever! and if we cannot change our rotten system now, one of them, a SUNNI, should come forward as a candidate ready to implement the plan! regardless of what the Mufti thinks. He can even go as far as to say: YOU deal with politics, give me "economy", "finance", "trade", etc. Why care about foreign ministry, education, sports, etc... let the politicians deal with those, and let the experts handle the crucial ministries, maybe with "special powers"
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    that's where i fault the revolution. This paper is great, and the economists/specialists behind it seem to know what they are talking about.
    Can you imagine if they were organized ? i am not saying necessarily a political party, call it an emergency committee! whatever! and if we cannot change our rotten system now, one of them, a SUNNI, should come forward as a candidate ready to implement the plan! regardless of what the Mufti thinks. He can even go as far as to say: YOU deal with politics, give me "economy", "finance", "trade", etc. Why care about foreign ministry, education, sports, etc... let the politicians deal with those, and let the experts handle the crucial ministries, maybe with "special powers"
    No Nito
    This is why i blame Michel Aoun
    Alla yse3edon the thouwar

    They are regular, some of them uneducated average Lebanese people who got sick and tired of the situation

    they’re not an organized group
    People who lost everything and just hit the streets.

    i would expect a wise President to listen to his people and Form this expert committee himself and kick the thieves out

    This President has failed to obtain the trust of the people, he stood against them...

    Even without Perogatives, his prestigious position alone and popular backup allows him to do whatever he wants and push whatever government he wants instead of taking sides...
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    No Nito
    This is why i blame Michel Aoun
    Alla yse3edon the thouwar

    They are regular, some of them uneducated average Lebanese people who got sick and tired of the situation

    they’re not an organized group
    People who lost everything and just hit the streets.

    i would expect a wise President to listen to his people and Form this expert committee himself and kick the thieves out

    This President has failed to obtain the trust of the people, he stood against them...

    Even without Perogatives, his prestigious position alone and popular backup allows him to do whatever he wants and push whatever government he wants instead of taking sides...
    let's agree to disagree on this... i am not saying PMA is doing a great job, but i dont think he can do anything on his own, and i dont think his resignation will change anything.
    The system is rotten, and the sharks are still here. Look at them now, we are in a free fall, and yet they are still fighting over seats and portfolios... the thawra HAS the role, and should take the initiative.

    And i am sorry, you are asking PMA to help and to form a committee, but when he invited the thawra to help him do that, they said NO.
    so ... what do you want?

    the thawra HAS TO GET ORGANIZED and offer ALTERNATIVES...
    don't bother say no... cause nothing will convince me to be honest...
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    let's agree to disagree on this... i am not saying PMA is doing a great job, but i dont think he can do anything on his own, and i dont think his resignation will change anything.
    The system is rotten, and the sharks are still here. Look at them now, we are in a free fall, and yet they are still fighting over seats and portfolios... the thawra HAS the role, and should take the initiative.

    And i am sorry, you are asking PMA to help and to form a committee, but when he invited the thawra to help him do that, they said NO.
    so ... what do you want?

    the thawra HAS TO GET ORGANIZED and offer ALTERNATIVES...
    don't bother say no... cause nothing will convince me to be honest...
    ON HIS OWN ?

    i’m telling you instead of seizing the moment
    Turning the table and fully supporting the protests puting himsef at the service of the Lebanese AS IT SHOULD BE
    HE WOULD NEVER BE ALONE

    Remember Aoun in 1989 ?
    He had the chance to do it again
    And people from all sects will march and camp around the palace and support him.

    He failed
    And stood idle
    He didn’t even declare emergency
    He should resign...
    Really, this is pure common sense
    We need some good caliber President at this crucial moment.
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    ON HIS OWN ?

    i’m telling you instead of seizing the moment
    Turning the table and fully supporting the protests puting himsef at the service of the Lebanese AS IT SHOULD BE
    HE WOULD NEVER BE ALONE

    Remember Aoun in 1989 ?
    He had the chance to do it again
    And people from all sects will march and camp around the palace and support him.

    He failed
    And stood idle
    He didn’t even declare emergency
    He should resign...
    Really, this is pure common sense
    We need some good caliber President at this crucial moment.
    you didn't answer my question
    HE INVITED THEM SEVERAL TIMES... why didn't they go?
    you want him to be at the service of the people, and don't want those specialists to talk to him. And yet he wants you to save them.
    I am sorry, but that logic is sinking
    You are stuck with the hate of one person, rather than trying to find a solution.
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    you didn't answer my question
    HE INVITED THEM SEVERAL TIMES... why didn't they go?
    you want him to be at the service of the people, and don't want those specialists to talk to him. And yet he wants you to save them.
    I am sorry, but that logic is sinking
    You are stuck with the hate of one person, rather than trying to find a solution.
    They don’t trust him...
    They HATE him lol...

    they don’t believe in him
    Since day 1 OTV and FPM propaganda machine did nothing but demonizing the protests.
    And on top of that invited Ahl el wafa and Bassil made a speech.
    From the very beginning he proved that he’a NOT bay el kel.

    People hate him dude..
    Aoun lost it khalas it’s too late now

    He is the President even with the 0 perogatives he has the capacity to lead the people and lead the way.

    He’s probably old and not 100% aware of what’s going on.
    I mostly blame the bunch of witches advising him
    Mainly the witches who were installed by bassil like Pierre Raffoul and Salim Jreysari
    No wonder Mireille left.

    Bassil ****ed up big time
    FPMers have a duty to realize what the hell is going on with the President and revolt inside the party...
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    They don’t trust him...
    They HATE him lol...

    they don’t believe in him
    Since day 1 OTV and FPM propaganda machine did nothing but demonizing the protests.
    And on top of that invited Ahl el wafa and Bassil made a speech.

    People hate him dude..
    Aoun lost it khalas it’s too late now

    He is the President even with the 0 perogatives he has the capacity to lead the people and lead the way.

    He’s probably old and not 100% aware of what’s going on.
    I mostly blame the bunch of witches advising him
    Mainly the witches who were installed by bassil like Pierre Raffoul and Sami Jreysari
    No wonder Mireille left.

    Bassil ****ed up big time
    FPMers have a duty to realize what the hell is going on with the President and revolt inside the party...
    we are not going anywhere with this discussion.
    you are contradicting yourself in every post.
    go back and read your posts, before i proceed.
    I tell you let the thawra take the initiative, you say NO it's the job of the president.. i say ok then let them go help the president, you say no they hate him they dont trust him.
    DO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU WANT?
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    we are not going anywhere with this discussion.
    you are contradicting yourself in every post.
    go back and read your posts, before i proceed.
    I tell you let the thawra take the initiative, you say NO it's the job of the president.. i say ok then let them go help the president, you say no they hate him they dont trust him.
    DO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU WANT?
    Ya khaye if people who are responsible do not want to be responsible let them RESIGN and do elections.

    There is no 7irak or organized group protesting
    Lak the Lebanese people is revolting
    There is no party or group here

    The President is the Person who should either listen to his people support them/Resign or Oppress them

    he chose to oppress them.
     
    Drama Queen

    Drama Queen

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    we are not going anywhere with this discussion.
    you are contradicting yourself in every post.
    go back and read your posts, before i proceed.
    I tell you let the thawra take the initiative, you say NO it's the job of the president.. i say ok then let them go help the president, you say no they hate him they dont trust him.
    DO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU WANT?
    Resign has a point. President Aoun sucks.
    Jiboulna 7ada mish kherfen ne2dar netfeham ma3o plz.
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    the issue is the corruption in the state not Taef. if they implemented Taef in the first place we wouldnt be in this mess. A senate, independent judiciary and decentralisation.
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    Ya khaye if people who are responsible do not want to be responsible let them RESIGN and do elections.

    There is no 7irak or organized group protesting
    Lak the Lebanese people is revolting
    There is no party or group here

    The President is the Person who should either listen to his people support them/Resign or Oppress them

    he chose to oppress them.
    ya khaye i dont care if he resigns... let him resign.
    i am asking for an ALTERNATIVE, you said no, the president should work.
    I
    WANT
    AN
    ALTERNATIVE

    he resigns today, guess who will elect another president? the existing majority.. guess who they might elect??? bravo! you guessed.

    Create an alternative, let people/rebels rally behind them, let's go to early elections... and hopefully we will have a NEW class of thinkers
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    Resign has a point. President Aoun sucks.
    Jiboulna 7ada mish kherfen ne2dar netfeham ma3o plz.
    that's very shortsighted... you guys make it seem like the President holds all the cards, and he is old and not able to perform (bala me3na).
    Aoun became part of the problem (whether those who support him like it or not)
    But to point the finger squarely at him is myopic.
    The issue started well before him, and will continue after him if he leaves.
    He shouldnt leave alone... everyone should leave if he has to leave and you want real change.
    You don't want the same existing majority to form a government.. not Berri, Not jumblatt, not franjieh, not SSNP, no one... if you want change.
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    the issue is the corruption in the state not Taef. if they implemented Taef in the first place we wouldnt be in this mess. A senate, independent judiciary and decentralisation.
    Taef regrettably cemented the sectarian system.. decentralization might help, but will not be the solution. Corruption and lack of reform come from the broken system that is paralyzed by those who use the sectarian weapons.
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    ya khaye i dont care if he resigns... let him resign.
    i am asking for an ALTERNATIVE, you said no, the president should work.
    I
    WANT
    AN
    ALTERNATIVE

    he resigns today, guess who will elect another president? the existing majority.. guess who they might elect??? bravo! you guessed.

    Create an alternative, let people/rebels rally behind them, let's go to early elections... and hopefully we will have a NEW class of thinkers
    NITO
    Every person has a duty to do
    Look at the protests, they’re unorganized, decentralized
    They fight each other on opening 1 lane vs closing the whole road.

    The situation is as follows, the Lebanese people lost the trust in the state and the President and they’re revolting
    Everyone has a duty
    Especially Partisans to ask their representatives and MPs to resign so we go for elections.

    Schedule an election in 3 months and the people will be forced to organize themselves and find the Alternative.
    However let’s start somewhere
    Else it’s revolts, road blocks and eventually bloodshed.
     
    loubnaniTO

    loubnaniTO

    Legendary Member
    Staff member
    Super Penguin
    NITO
    Every person has a duty to do
    Look at the protests, they’re unorganized, decentralized
    They fight each other on opening 1 lane vs closing the whole road.

    The situation is as follows, the Lebanese people lost the trust in the state and the President and they’re revolting
    Everyone has a duty
    Especially Partisans to ask their representatives and MPs to resign so we go for elections.

    Schedule an election in 3 months and the people will be forced to organize themselves and find the Alternative.
    However let’s start somewhere
    Else it’s revolts, road blocks and eventually bloodshed.
    ok great. GOOD LUCK.. i will sit back and watch.
    bring down the president, dont provide an alternative, and i am sure everything will be ok. GOOD LUCK.
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    Taef regrettably cemented the sectarian system.. decentralization might help, but will not be the solution. Corruption and lack of reform come from the broken system that is paralyzed by those who use the sectarian weapons.
    this is where i disagree. it is the people who are corrupt and lack reform not the law or the constitution. the lack of is due to the people.
     
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