Lebanon’s Economic crisis - Reasons And Way outs

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  • Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    his allowed to have an opinion. it is a public forum. ur the one trolling.
    his opinion about anything, even about why Trump should be impeached or why my car needs repais, is that Aoun should resign. This called trolling
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    his opinion about anything, even about why Trump should be impeached or why my car needs repais, is that Aoun should resign.
    ya zalame our country is going through really tough times. he is stating his opinion. it is really bad and i dont think lebanon has ever had this situation before.
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    unfortunately that looks like the case. the debt is increasing and nothing is done to stop it.
    It’s only logical
    Read the article
    They’re warning of catastrophic circumstances and those people are experts
    I actually know one of them personally

    we’re speaking very high caliber experts.

    The state won’t be able to pay salaries
    The army and security forces will disintegrate
    State collapse

    Hezbollah can self sustain and will run the country militia style
    Just wait for it...
    This will force people to arm themselves and protect their areas

    1980s all over again.
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    It’s only logical
    Read the article
    They’re warning of catastrophic circumstances and those people are experts
    I actually know one of them personally

    we’re speaking very high caliber experts.

    The state won’t be able to pay salaries
    The army and security forces will disintegrate
    State collapse

    Hezbollah can self sustain and will run the country militia style
    Just wait for it...
    This will force people to arm themselves and protect their areas

    1980s all over again.
    agree with this. parties are already arming themselves and have been for some time. the situation is bad and we need urgent decisions made which no one is up to the challenge.
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    @Resign
    if a war does happen and the state collapses then it will never end. the jarab countries are in tatters and it took 15 years to stop the war. this time 30. the parties kelloun will be able to sustain. they will find a way as they always have since 75. HA or not same as the rest of the parties. it is the governments job
    not to get to this stage.
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    It’s only logical
    Read the article
    They’re warning of catastrophic circumstances and those people are experts
    I actually know one of them personally

    we’re speaking very high caliber experts.

    The state won’t be able to pay salaries
    The army and security forces will disintegrate
    State collapse

    Hezbollah can self sustain and will run the country militia style
    Just wait for it...
    This will force people to arm themselves and protect their areas

    1980s all over again.
    eh sa7 el nom, you needed an article written today to realize what we have been telling for years. 16% interest did not give you any hints about it.
    Nor the many articles from
    Here is in article from 2011 that was talking about it, while Raya el hassan the mustaqbal minister was saying no don't worry ma fi shi.



    Abigail Fielding-Smith

    JANUARY 24 2011

    Crisis exposes Lebanon’s weaknesses
    In recent years, Lebanon has been eating, drinking, sunbathing and luxury apartment-building its way to annual economic growth rates of 8 per cent. The expansion has been accompanied by unprecedented financial transfers, largely from the Lebanese diaspora. Now that the western-backed government of Saad Hariri, the caretaker prime minister, has been toppled, however, the spectre of violence has returned and a protracted political crisis is anticipated. In this scenario, the vulnerabilities of the economy are being exposed, analysts warn. The country’s growth has been driven primarily by domestic consumption, which is sensitive to the political atmosphere. According to research by Byblos Bank, consumer confidence has dropped almost every month since the latest political tensions began in July. “The 8 per cent growth in 2010 was mostly the result of construction activity and tourism, which are not necessarily economic sectors with a great sustainability record,” says Marcus Marktanner, an economics professor at the American University of Beirut. “If the crisis escalates, the same two industries have also the potential to deflate the economy again.” Although there is limited evidence so far, a slowdown in the real economy is widely expected. Following the government’s collapse, the Institute of International Finance revised down its growth predictions for this year from 7 per cent to 4 per cent. The Lebanese monetary and financial systems are famously resilient and optimists say this makes it likely the economy will bounce back, as it did after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri (the former prime minister and father of Saad) in 2005, the war with Israel in 2006 and the internal armed clashes of 2008. Lebanon’s financial institutions have evolved to withstand short-term political turbulence well. The Central Bank’s foreign currency holdings, just more than $30bn, are some of the highest on a per-capita basis in the world, which has enabled it to meet the increased demand for dollars. “The Lebanese pound is stable,” Raya Hassan, the caretaker finance minister, said last week. “We went through tougher crises before and there is not one time where we did not fulfil our obligations. We have resiliency to confront such crises.” But if the crisis persists, Lebanon’s financial sector could face trouble. Although bankers say there are no signs of capital flight, rating agency Moody’s pronounces it a “significant risk”. Moreover, the agency says a growth slowdown combined with market uncertainties could hurt the banks, even in the absence of a sharp or prolonged flight of capital. “The stability of the financial and economic system has been based on the strong growth in deposit inflows; so a reversal of this trend or the outflow of deposits, although highly unlikely at this stage, has always been the key risk for the system in the absence of reforms to reduce the government’s borrowing needs,” says Nassib Ghobril, head of research at Byblos Bank. Although the banks have comfortable liquidity buffers, capital flight would put pressure on their ability to refinance government debt – of which $3.5bn in eurobonds is due to mature this year – at current interest rates. Lebanon’s government owes more than $50bn, much of which is held by domestic banks. In spite of the prosperity and stability of recent years, the government has failed to decrease the debt in nominal terms, but points out that it has succeeded in reducing at as proportion of gross domestic product. Riad Salameh, the central bank governor, warned last week that if the crisis continued, it would have a “negative impact” on the debt-to-GDP ratio.
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    eh sa7 el nom, you needed an article written today to realize what we have been telling for years. 16% interest did not give you any hints about it.
    Nor the many articles from
    Here is in article from 2011 that was talking about it, while Raya el hassan the mustaqbal minister was saying no don't worry ma fi shi.


    Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here.
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    Crisis exposes Lebanon’s weaknesses Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Save Abigail Fielding-Smith JANUARY 24 2011Print this page In recent years, Lebanon has been eating, drinking, sunbathing and luxury apartment-building its way to annual economic growth rates of 8 per cent. The expansion has been accompanied by unprecedented financial transfers, largely from the Lebanese diaspora. Now that the western-backed government of Saad Hariri, the caretaker prime minister, has been toppled, however, the spectre of violence has returned and a protracted political crisis is anticipated. In this scenario, the vulnerabilities of the economy are being exposed, analysts warn. The country’s growth has been driven primarily by domestic consumption, which is sensitive to the political atmosphere. According to research by Byblos Bank, consumer confidence has dropped almost every month since the latest political tensions began in July. “The 8 per cent growth in 2010 was mostly the result of construction activity and tourism, which are not necessarily economic sectors with a great sustainability record,” says Marcus Marktanner, an economics professor at the American University of Beirut. “If the crisis escalates, the same two industries have also the potential to deflate the economy again.” Although there is limited evidence so far, a slowdown in the real economy is widely expected. Following the government’s collapse, the Institute of International Finance revised down its growth predictions for this year from 7 per cent to 4 per cent. The Lebanese monetary and financial systems are famously resilient and optimists say this makes it likely the economy will bounce back, as it did after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri (the former prime minister and father of Saad) in 2005, the war with Israel in 2006 and the internal armed clashes of 2008. Lebanon’s financial institutions have evolved to withstand short-term political turbulence well. The Central Bank’s foreign currency holdings, just more than $30bn, are some of the highest on a per-capita basis in the world, which has enabled it to meet the increased demand for dollars. “The Lebanese pound is stable,” Raya Hassan, the caretaker finance minister, said last week. “We went through tougher crises before and there is not one time where we did not fulfil our obligations. We have resiliency to confront such crises.” But if the crisis persists, Lebanon’s financial sector could face trouble. Although bankers say there are no signs of capital flight, rating agency Moody’s pronounces it a “significant risk”. Moreover, the agency says a growth slowdown combined with market uncertainties could hurt the banks, even in the absence of a sharp or prolonged flight of capital. “The stability of the financial and economic system has been based on the strong growth in deposit inflows; so a reversal of this trend or the outflow of deposits, although highly unlikely at this stage, has always been the key risk for the system in the absence of reforms to reduce the government’s borrowing needs,” says Nassib Ghobril, head of research at Byblos Bank. Although the banks have comfortable liquidity buffers, capital flight would put pressure on their ability to refinance government debt – of which $3.5bn in eurobonds is due to mature this year – at current interest rates. Lebanon’s government owes more than $50bn, much of which is held by domestic banks. In spite of the prosperity and stability of recent years, the government has failed to decrease the debt in nominal terms, but points out that it has succeeded in reducing at as proportion of gross domestic product. Riad Salameh, the central bank governor, warned last week that if the crisis continued, it would have a “negative impact” on the debt-to-GDP ratio.
    16%
    as in the gov borrowing on 16% interests?
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    eh sa7 el nom, you needed an article written today to realize what we have been telling for years. 16% interest did not give you any hints about it.
    Nor the many articles from
    Here is in article from 2011 that was talking about it, while Raya el hassan the mustaqbal minister was saying no don't worry ma fi shi.


    Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here.
    Subscribe to read | Financial Times

    Crisis exposes Lebanon’s weaknesses Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Save Abigail Fielding-Smith JANUARY 24 2011Print this page In recent years, Lebanon has been eating, drinking, sunbathing and luxury apartment-building its way to annual economic growth rates of 8 per cent. The expansion has been accompanied by unprecedented financial transfers, largely from the Lebanese diaspora. Now that the western-backed government of Saad Hariri, the caretaker prime minister, has been toppled, however, the spectre of violence has returned and a protracted political crisis is anticipated. In this scenario, the vulnerabilities of the economy are being exposed, analysts warn. The country’s growth has been driven primarily by domestic consumption, which is sensitive to the political atmosphere. According to research by Byblos Bank, consumer confidence has dropped almost every month since the latest political tensions began in July. “The 8 per cent growth in 2010 was mostly the result of construction activity and tourism, which are not necessarily economic sectors with a great sustainability record,” says Marcus Marktanner, an economics professor at the American University of Beirut. “If the crisis escalates, the same two industries have also the potential to deflate the economy again.” Although there is limited evidence so far, a slowdown in the real economy is widely expected. Following the government’s collapse, the Institute of International Finance revised down its growth predictions for this year from 7 per cent to 4 per cent. The Lebanese monetary and financial systems are famously resilient and optimists say this makes it likely the economy will bounce back, as it did after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri (the former prime minister and father of Saad) in 2005, the war with Israel in 2006 and the internal armed clashes of 2008. Lebanon’s financial institutions have evolved to withstand short-term political turbulence well. The Central Bank’s foreign currency holdings, just more than $30bn, are some of the highest on a per-capita basis in the world, which has enabled it to meet the increased demand for dollars. “The Lebanese pound is stable,” Raya Hassan, the caretaker finance minister, said last week. “We went through tougher crises before and there is not one time where we did not fulfil our obligations. We have resiliency to confront such crises.” But if the crisis persists, Lebanon’s financial sector could face trouble. Although bankers say there are no signs of capital flight, rating agency Moody’s pronounces it a “significant risk”. Moreover, the agency says a growth slowdown combined with market uncertainties could hurt the banks, even in the absence of a sharp or prolonged flight of capital. “The stability of the financial and economic system has been based on the strong growth in deposit inflows; so a reversal of this trend or the outflow of deposits, although highly unlikely at this stage, has always been the key risk for the system in the absence of reforms to reduce the government’s borrowing needs,” says Nassib Ghobril, head of research at Byblos Bank. Although the banks have comfortable liquidity buffers, capital flight would put pressure on their ability to refinance government debt – of which $3.5bn in eurobonds is due to mature this year – at current interest rates. Lebanon’s government owes more than $50bn, much of which is held by domestic banks. In spite of the prosperity and stability of recent years, the government has failed to decrease the debt in nominal terms, but points out that it has succeeded in reducing at as proportion of gross domestic product. Riad Salameh, the central bank governor, warned last week that if the crisis continued, it would have a “negative impact” on the debt-to-GDP ratio.
    this is not the time to exchange the blame
    In fact i supported FPM until 2019
    So go bark elsewhere

    until i realized that FPM failed
    And all others too

    We need to wake up and act
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    this is not the time to exchange the blame
    In fact i supported FPM until 2019
    So go bark elsewhere

    until i realized that FPM failed
    And all others too

    We need to wake up and act
    its is too late. there is no money coming into the gov. even ports revenues arent going to the ministry. the state has already collapsed just bandaid solutions now.
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    what you see currently on the streets is nothing compared to what could be. wait
    until the state fully collapses and then see. everyone has failed. people, politicians and our corrupt institutions.
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Meanwhile
    Those are the people who want to deal with the crisis

    رئيس حزب التوحيد العربي الوزير السابق وئام وهاب لل LBCI:
    - على المردة أن "يحلحلوها شوي"، فحقيبة الأشغال جيّدة
    - الخلاصة: رأيي في حظوظ حقيقية لبهاء الحريري
     
    !Aoune32

    !Aoune32

    Well-Known Member
    Meanwhile
    Those are the people who want to deal with the crisis

    رئيس حزب التوحيد العربي الوزير السابق وئام وهاب لل LBCI:
    - على المردة أن "يحلحلوها شوي"، فحقيبة الأشغال جيّدة
    - الخلاصة: رأيي في حظوظ حقيقية لبهاء الحريري
    loooool
    they are not doing anything. they dont think there is a crisis. let them burn.
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    16%
    as in the gov borrowing on 16% interests?
    yes, and lending as well high interest is high risk, the scheme was to give high interest so that people deposit their money in the banks and buy the bonds so that the central can keep the scheme going of using this money to finance the expenses.
     
    Danny Z

    Danny Z

    Legendary Member
    this is not the time to exchange the blame
    In fact i supported FPM until 2019
    So go bark elsewhere

    until i realized that FPM failed
    And all others too

    We need to wake up and act
    No time to exchange blame but the first page of this thread is about you blaming Aoun, za77et that's exactly what you want: exchange blame, well actually not exchange just put blame on Aoun. za77et.
     
    Resign

    Resign

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    No time to exchange blame but the first page of this thread is about you blaming Aoun, za77et that's exactly what you want: exchange blame, well actually not exchange just put blame on Aoun. za77et.
    I’m not blaming the crisis on Aoun
    As a person who voted FPM
    And a member of a family who fully voted FPM in 2018 i have the right to criticize and state my opinion

    i am not blaming the crisis on Aoun
    I am expressing my disappointment and dissatisfaction with how Aoun and FPM are dealing with the crisis...

    Yes they failed,
    I voted them and in some way i feel responsible to ask them to resign.
     
    Nonan

    Nonan

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    or COMPLETE CHAOS and start from scratch ;) coup d'etat... a real revolution...
    I think President Aoun should resign. I think Gl Aoun should do a coup d’état, and take over. I think he should appoint judge Aoun as the head of an anti corruption body that drags all the corrupt politicians to court. A new government should be formed with MP Aoun as minister of health to restructure the health system and MP Aoun (Salim) as minister of Bahwara to hold the country...
     
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