Parliamentary elections 2018 Lebanon elections 2018 in numbers - who won? how many votes did they get? by caza and district

S

Sherlock

New Member
On the contrary, it's an excellent decision and has been delayed, or more accurately has not been considered until FPM take the initiative now.

The increase will be only one time because it is a new experience and then the number of seats allocated to the constituencies in Lebanon will be reduced.
 
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  • Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    On the contrary, it's an excellent decision and has been delayed, or more accurately has not been considered until FPM take the initiative now.

    The increase will be only one time because it is a new experience and then the number of seats allocated to the constituencies in Lebanon will be reduced.
    la2 its not matey. :)
    The expatriates won't vote in this maskhara. Only 92K registered and no more than 50K voted if that.
     
    S

    Sherlock

    New Member
    The expatriates turnout will be much more higher, I do not doubt it for a moment.

    In previous elections, despite the recent experience and limited time, the turnout was better than expected. How, with the development of the mechanism and giving more tmany options to the expatriate?

    The voting mechanism of expatriates will improve, but the most important and difficult is within Lebanon. The voter should not suffer the trouble of driving a long distance to his original district just to vote, as well as redistribution of some specific seats in the North and South districts so that the sects will have more fair to choose their real MPs.
     
    geogeo758

    geogeo758

    Well-Known Member
    دراسة متفائلة عن مستقبل المسيحيين في لبنان: العدد إلى ارتفاع... والتأثير كبير



    أعدت مجموعة من الباحثين والأكاديميين برئاسة د.وسام راجي، رئيس قسم الرياضيات في الجامعة الأمريكية، «دراسة ديموغرافية» خلصت الى أن عدد المسيحيين سيرتفع مجددا في لبنان وفق أدلة وبراهين نالت موافقة مراجع علمية عدة في العالم.

    واستندت الدراسة الى محورين أساسيين للوصول الى الاستنتاج أن نسبة المسيحيين ستزداد في المستقبل القريب: الهجرة ومعدل الخصوبة.

    وبينت الدراسة أن الهجرة عند الطوائف الإسلامية تزيد قليلا عن الهجرة عند الطوائف المسيحية على عكس ما هو شائع. وقال «أما بالنسبة الى معدل الخصوبة، فإن انحداره عند الطوائف الإسلامية من 5.44 في العام 1971 الى 1.82 في العام 2004، قد أدى الى تقليص الفارق بينه وبين معدل الخصوبة عند المسيحيين، ما سيؤدي الى ارتفاع نسبة المسيحيين. لكن التحدي الأكبر يبقى في وعي المغتربين لجهة تسجيل أسماء أولادهم في لبنان».

    وأشار الى أن الهجرة اليوم لا تعتمد فقط على المسافة كما في السابق، بسبب سرعة الانتقال من مكان الى آخر اليوم على عكس الماضي، بل أصبحت وفق فرصة العمل التي سيحصل عليها اللبناني المهاجر في الدولة التي سافر إليها.

    وعن خريطة ارتفاع عدد المسيحيين، قال راجي «بحسب الدراسة من المتوقع أن يصل معدل المسيحيين عام 2030 الى نحو 38%، وفي العام 2054 الى نحو 39%، وعلى لوائح الشطب الى نحو 40% عام 2030 ونحو 41.12% عام 2054».

    وأضاف «إنها عملية حسابية اعتمدت على عوامل ديموغرافية واجتماعية وسياسية عدة، فانحدار نسبة الأمية وتأخير سن الزواج وارتفاع الهجرة الداخلية من القرى الى المدن والتأثير المباشر للعولمة، كلها عوامل ساهمت بانحدار معدل الخصوبة عند الطوائف الإسلامية التي بدأت تنخفض بعد العام 2001، لكن هذا التغيير لن يبدأ بالظهور فعليا على لوائح الشطب قبل العام 2025 أي بعد 21 عاما».

    وتتمتع هذه الدراسة بصدقية كبيرة واعتمدت في مراكز علمية أكدت على صوابية استنتاجها العلمي. وأوضح راجي أن هذه الدراسة نشرت في العام 2013، وقد سلطت الأضواء عليها مصادر عدة محلية وعالمية قبل نشرها هذه السنة في مجلد أكاديمي Yearbook of international religious demography 2018 الذي تنشره في Brill في دار النشر العلمي في ولاية Boston في الولايات المتحدة والذي يشرف عليه اختصاصيون أكاديميون عالميون في مجال العلمي في ولاية الديموغرافيا، وكتبت مقالات عالمية عدة تتعلق بهده الدراسة.

    وفي خلاصة هذه الدراسة، يمكن القول انه مهما تغيرت الأعداد وتبدلت فإن من الواضح أن أي نظام سياسي وبخاصة في لبنان يجب ألا يتعلق بالنسب العددية.

    فبالإضافة الى أن النظام اللبناني هو ديموقراطي توافقي ذو طابع مختلف عن الديموقراطيات المعهودة، فإن عنصر التأثير السياسي لا يقتصر فقط على العدد بل على قدرة التأثير الاقتصادية والصحية والعلمية والاجتماعية وغيرها، ومازال المسيحيون في لبنان ذا تأثير كبير جدا ضمن هذه العوامل المذكورة.
    This is actually a very positive and reassuring result for the Christians in Lebanon. Close to 700k voters is significant. There were MANY areas in which Christians did not vote (especially the south, bekaa, and beirut). I would estimate maybe an additional 50-100K.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    This is actually a very positive and reassuring result for the Christians in Lebanon. Close to 700k voters is significant. There were MANY areas in which Christians did not vote (especially the south, bekaa, and beirut). I would estimate maybe an additional 50-100K.
    Agree.
    You can be reassured that the christian vote was no more than 75-85% with at least 1/4 or 15% not voting. The muslims la2. I am 100% sure that at least 95% of those who can vote voted.
     
    Jo

    Jo

    Administrator
    Master Penguin
    Agree.
    You can be reassured that the christian vote was no more than 75-85% with at least 1/4 or 15% not voting. The muslims la2. I am 100% sure that at least 95% of those who can vote voted.
    Christian participation was around 50%
     
    geogeo758

    geogeo758

    Well-Known Member
    Agree.
    You can be reassured that the christian vote was no more than 75-85% with at least 1/4 or 15% not voting. The muslims la2. I am 100% sure that at least 95% of those who can vote voted.
    the Christian vote was around 50-52%; however, overall it could have been slightly higher had there been more turnout in the areas I previously mentioned
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    the Christian vote was around 50-52%; however, overall it could have been slightly higher had there been more turnout in the areas I previously mentioned
    Which means the fear they tried to install in the christians is wrong. Had the christian participation been higher like 55-60% we could have had 43-45% of the vote which means that the 94 law tipped the balance and must be revoked.
     
    geogeo758

    geogeo758

    Well-Known Member
    Which means the fear they tried to install in the christians is wrong. Had the christian participation been higher like 55-60% we could have had 43-45% of the vote which means that the 94 law tipped the balance and must be revoked.
    you could say that, but tbh idk how realistic that is
    the only option really is to more registration of the internationals
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    you could say that, but tbh idk how realistic that is
    the only option really is to more registration of the internationals
    Those syrians that tipped the demographics and especially in zahle and hadath should be revoked. In hadath janaso like 1000 sunnis.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    the Christian vote was around 50-52%; however, overall it could have been slightly higher had there been more turnout in the areas I previously mentioned
    Do you know what the muslims turnout was?
     
    The_FPMer

    The_FPMer

    New Member
    The turnout could have been way lower for both Christians and Muslims had they closed the voting polls at the original agreed time which was 7 or 8 PM.
     
    Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    دراسة متفائلة عن مستقبل المسيحيين في لبنان: العدد إلى ارتفاع... والتأثير كبير



    أعدت مجموعة من الباحثين والأكاديميين برئاسة د.وسام راجي، رئيس قسم الرياضيات في الجامعة الأمريكية، «دراسة ديموغرافية» خلصت الى أن عدد المسيحيين سيرتفع مجددا في لبنان وفق أدلة وبراهين نالت موافقة مراجع علمية عدة في العالم.

    واستندت الدراسة الى محورين أساسيين للوصول الى الاستنتاج أن نسبة المسيحيين ستزداد في المستقبل القريب: الهجرة ومعدل الخصوبة.

    وبينت الدراسة أن الهجرة عند الطوائف الإسلامية تزيد قليلا عن الهجرة عند الطوائف المسيحية على عكس ما هو شائع. وقال «أما بالنسبة الى معدل الخصوبة، فإن انحداره عند الطوائف الإسلامية من 5.44 في العام 1971 الى 1.82 في العام 2004، قد أدى الى تقليص الفارق بينه وبين معدل الخصوبة عند المسيحيين، ما سيؤدي الى ارتفاع نسبة المسيحيين. لكن التحدي الأكبر يبقى في وعي المغتربين لجهة تسجيل أسماء أولادهم في لبنان».

    وأشار الى أن الهجرة اليوم لا تعتمد فقط على المسافة كما في السابق، بسبب سرعة الانتقال من مكان الى آخر اليوم على عكس الماضي، بل أصبحت وفق فرصة العمل التي سيحصل عليها اللبناني المهاجر في الدولة التي سافر إليها.

    وعن خريطة ارتفاع عدد المسيحيين، قال راجي «بحسب الدراسة من المتوقع أن يصل معدل المسيحيين عام 2030 الى نحو 38%، وفي العام 2054 الى نحو 39%، وعلى لوائح الشطب الى نحو 40% عام 2030 ونحو 41.12% عام 2054».

    وأضاف «إنها عملية حسابية اعتمدت على عوامل ديموغرافية واجتماعية وسياسية عدة، فانحدار نسبة الأمية وتأخير سن الزواج وارتفاع الهجرة الداخلية من القرى الى المدن والتأثير المباشر للعولمة، كلها عوامل ساهمت بانحدار معدل الخصوبة عند الطوائف الإسلامية التي بدأت تنخفض بعد العام 2001، لكن هذا التغيير لن يبدأ بالظهور فعليا على لوائح الشطب قبل العام 2025 أي بعد 21 عاما».

    وتتمتع هذه الدراسة بصدقية كبيرة واعتمدت في مراكز علمية أكدت على صوابية استنتاجها العلمي. وأوضح راجي أن هذه الدراسة نشرت في العام 2013، وقد سلطت الأضواء عليها مصادر عدة محلية وعالمية قبل نشرها هذه السنة في مجلد أكاديمي Yearbook of international religious demography 2018 الذي تنشره في Brill في دار النشر العلمي في ولاية Boston في الولايات المتحدة والذي يشرف عليه اختصاصيون أكاديميون عالميون في مجال العلمي في ولاية الديموغرافيا، وكتبت مقالات عالمية عدة تتعلق بهده الدراسة.

    وفي خلاصة هذه الدراسة، يمكن القول انه مهما تغيرت الأعداد وتبدلت فإن من الواضح أن أي نظام سياسي وبخاصة في لبنان يجب ألا يتعلق بالنسب العددية.

    فبالإضافة الى أن النظام اللبناني هو ديموقراطي توافقي ذو طابع مختلف عن الديموقراطيات المعهودة، فإن عنصر التأثير السياسي لا يقتصر فقط على العدد بل على قدرة التأثير الاقتصادية والصحية والعلمية والاجتماعية وغيرها، ومازال المسيحيون في لبنان ذا تأثير كبير جدا ضمن هذه العوامل المذكورة.
    Of course the question that comes out and by comparing the Jewish State with Lebanon is how much really did the Christians of Lebanon believe in Lebanon to start with.

    Zionism created a state for the Jews and made this state the strongest state in the region. It also granted all Arabs in the state equal rights and citizenship.

    Christian nationalism in Lebanon was just a corrupt political movement whose aim was destructive and racist. It made it to government by propaganda and lies. Christians themselves left the country and Muslims could not leave as much because no one wants Muslims and Muslims were poor and alienated. Only Muslims that had money immigrated. The poor stayed and multiplied.

    When it comes o Christians, these who are educated and have money immigrated. What exists today are those who were carrying arms 3alla khat el tamas. Christians in Lebanon today are backward people, violent and vulgar. This is because they are those who participated in the civil war. Come to Lebanon and you will be surprised by how the Church has made Lebanese Christians live in the ideology of the Dark Ages of Europe.

    Get over it Christians are not a nation and Christianity is not the ground of a national identity.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    Of course the question that comes out and by comparing the Jewish State with Lebanon is how much really did the Christians of Lebanon believe in Lebanon to start with.

    Zionism created a state for the Jews and made this state the strongest state in the region. It also granted all Arabs in the state equal rights and citizenship.

    Christian nationalism in Lebanon was just a corrupt political movement whose aim was destructive and racist. It made it to government by propaganda and lies. Christians themselves left the country and Muslims could not leave as much because no one wants Muslims and Muslims were poor and alienated. Only Muslims that had money immigrated. The poor stayed and multiplied.

    When it comes o Christians, these who are educated and have money immigrated. What exists today are those who were carrying arms 3alla khat el tamas. Christians in Lebanon today are backward people, violent and vulgar. This is because they are those who participated in the civil war. Come to Lebanon and you will be surprised by how the Church has made Lebanese Christians live in the ideology of the Dark Ages of Europe.

    Get over it Christians are not a nation and Christianity is not the ground of a national identity.
    You seriously believe in the shit you write? If there was no christians there is no country called Lebanon. Muslims 2al. Ma 3emlo chi la hal balad 2ella kharabo.
     
    Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    You seriously believe in the shit you write? If there was no christians there is no country called Lebanon. Muslims 2al. Ma 3emlo chi la hal balad 2ella kharabo.
    You did not read what I wrote.
     
    Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Stop writing riddles. You have a problem with the christians in the country. What you wrote is all wrong aslan.
    I do not have a problem with Christians. I have a problem with all radical religious nationalist movements, including Zionism and Islamism. But since you only see with one eye, I cannot help you use both of your eyes to read what I write.
     
    Mighty Goat

    Mighty Goat

    Legendary Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    I do not have a problem with Christians. I have a problem with all radical religious nationalist movements, including Zionism and Islamism. But since you only see with one eye, I cannot help you use both of your eyes to read what I write.
    I am laughing at you as well.
     
    Iron Maiden

    Iron Maiden

    Paragon of Bacon
    Staff member
    Of course the question that comes out and by comparing the Jewish State with Lebanon is how much really did the Christians of Lebanon believe in Lebanon to start with.

    Zionism created a state for the Jews and made this state the strongest state in the region. It also granted all Arabs in the state equal rights and citizenship.

    Christian nationalism in Lebanon was just a corrupt political movement whose aim was destructive and racist. It made it to government by propaganda and lies. Christians themselves left the country and Muslims could not leave as much because no one wants Muslims and Muslims were poor and alienated. Only Muslims that had money immigrated. The poor stayed and multiplied.

    When it comes o Christians, these who are educated and have money immigrated. What exists today are those who were carrying arms 3alla khat el tamas. Christians in Lebanon today are backward people, violent and vulgar. This is because they are those who participated in the civil war. Come to Lebanon and you will be surprised by how the Church has made Lebanese Christians live in the ideology of the Dark Ages of Europe.

    Get over it Christians are not a nation and Christianity is not the ground of a national identity.
    The lebanese christian state that shared political power with the muslims was racist and utterly corrupt, but the jewish state who kicked out everyone from the land it claimed is a strong all around swell thing :lol: :lol: :lol:
     
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