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Lebanon tries to reassure markets after ali hassan khalil instigate a severe Lebanese bond plunge.

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
Lebanon Tries—Again—to Reassure Markets After Bonds Plunge

Top Lebanese officials, including the president, the caretaker prime minister and the central bank chief, are scrambling to reassure bond investors panicking over the risk of debt restructuring after initial efforts at damage-control failed to calm markets.

Top Lebanese officials, including the president, the caretaker prime minister and the central bank chief, are scrambling to reassure bond investors panicking over the risk of debt restructuring after initial efforts at damage-control failed to calm markets.

Lebanese dollar-denominated bonds began tumbling and the country’s credit risk surged last week after Khalil said in an interview with Al Akhbar newspaper that the country was considering restructuring its debt.

Trying to clear up confusion and calm investor nerves, he said a day later that while a program of fiscal reforms to control one of the world’s highest debt burdens doesn’t include a restructuring, it may entail a rescheduling of debt. Lebanese officials also said the securities in question were local, not Eurobonds.

But the plunge in Lebanese bonds last week showed how just talking about the country’s debt problem -- let alone fixing it -- is proving to be a challenge.

Investors didn’t wait for politicians to work out the semantics, with the price of the 2028 bonds plunging below 72 cents on the dollar on Friday. The surge in the cost to insure the country’s debt through credit default swaps has been among the most in the world over the past year, CMA prices show.

Despite an unblemished record of bond repayment through war and political strife, Lebanon is coming to a reckoning with years of fiscal overreach. While maintaining that an imminent restructuring is unlikely, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has gone as far as calculating how much investors could recover should Lebanon overhaul its sovereign debt.

Lebanon’s public debt, estimated at over 160 percent of gross domestic product this year, is projected to rise to near 180 percent by 2023, second only to Japan’s, the IMF says. Its “debt affordability” is the weakest of all the sovereigns rated by Moody’s Investors Service.

Still run by a caretaker government eight months after elections, Lebanon has been mired in sectarian and political strife since Syria crisis began in 2011.

The recommendations under consideration by the Lebanese government include spending cuts as well as tax and electricity reforms, according to Khalil.

Lebanon has also committed to reducing the budget deficit by 1 percent annually over five years as part of reforms to unlock $11 billion in aid allocated during a donor conference last year.

Before the government stepped in last month by offering Treasury bonds closer to market rates, the central bank, also known as Banque du Liban, pulled the weight of Lebanon’s debt burden by means of what it called “financial engineering.” Offering commercial lenders above-market rates for deposits, it encouraged them to purchase sovereign notes while buying the government debt that wasn’t absorbed by banks.

While that enabled the central bank to keep interest rates low and stable, its domestic holdings jumped to 50 percent of the government’s total local-currency debt as of last September, from about 27 percent at the end of 2010, according to Moody’s.

Last week “showed there is clearly a lack of coordination within the government as well as no unified strategy on how to deal with the financing issue,” said Ray Jian, London-based portfolio manager and head of emerging markets aggregate debt at Amundi Asset Management.

Liquidity conditions are “a function of confidence,” Jian said. “The restructure word and lack of coordination in the government definitely is not inspiring that.”
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
at the moment the article was written, the bonds were selling at 0.72c for the dollar, now they are in the 0.50c for the dollar, at that rate Lebanon's losses would amount to 10 billion dollars.

this is not the first time ali hassan khalil causes such a severe blow to the Lebanese economy. he has already caused the loss of another 10 billion dollars by intentionally delaying the deir aamar electricity plant for 5 long years.

in the meanwhile, amal supporters are in the street chanting "bel rou7 bel dam nafdika ya imam". go figure.
 

!Aoune32

Well-Known Member
at the moment the article was written, the bonds were selling at 0.72c for the dollar, now they are in the 0.50c for the dollar, at that rate Lebanon's losses would amount to 10 billion dollars.

this is not the first time ali hassan khalil causes such a severe blow to the Lebanese economy. he has already caused the loss of another 10 billion dollars by intentionally delaying the deir aamar electricity plant for 5 long years.

in the meanwhile, amal supporters are in the street chanting "bel rou7 bel dam nafdika ya imam". go figure.

thats what happens when you give an incompetent the ministry of Finance.
 

Jo

Administrator
Master Penguin
at the moment the article was written, the bonds were selling at 0.72c for the dollar, now they are in the 0.50c for the dollar, at that rate Lebanon's losses would amount to 10 billion dollars.
Shou fahhamna ne7na?

These bonds were a direct threat to the 3ezz w karame of Amal. We shouldnt try to fix it or we would be jeopardizing Lebanon fragile setup.
 

Libnene Qu7

Super Ultra Senior Member
Orange Room Supporter
at the moment the article was written, the bonds were selling at 0.72c for the dollar, now they are in the 0.50c for the dollar, at that rate Lebanon's losses would amount to 10 billion dollars.

this is not the first time ali hassan khalil causes such a severe blow to the Lebanese economy. he has already caused the loss of another 10 billion dollars by intentionally delaying the deir aamar electricity plant for 5 long years.

in the meanwhile, amal supporters are in the street chanting "bel rou7 bel dam nafdika ya imam". go figure.

This is what happens when you assign the minstry of finance to a ja7sh baltaji who was head of the marbad in Zahrani during the war. To my knowledge, finance ministers never quite going to universities because this is the nature of finance. Bas ne7na we have to live with this kalb ibn kalb because some (perhaps many) Shiites prefer to eat shit if it means pissing off their neighbors.
 

lebanese1

Legendary Member
ضاهر:هناك احد المسؤولين الماليين يدفع بتصريحاته اقتصاد البلد نحو الانهيار

الاثنين ١٤ كانون الثاني ٢٠١٩ 10:59 سياسة

أشار النائب ميشال ضاهر في تصريح على مواقع التواصل الاجتماعي إلى انه "هناك احد المسؤولين الماليين يدفع بتصريحاته اقتصاد البلد نحو الانهيار الشامل حيث بت لا اعرف اذا كان عبر تصريحاته يعي ماذا يصرح او ان عملية احداث هذا الانهيار هو من ضمن خطة منظمة ومدروسة لفرض تركيبة جديدة على واقع البلد الله يستر".
 

Resign

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
his retraction was worth 1.5 cents on the dollar




LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Lebanon’s dollar-denominated bonds rose on Monday after Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil said the government was “absolutely not proposing” a restructuring of public debt and was committed to paying all upcoming dues.

The bonds rose broadly across the curve with the 2025 issue reaping some of the biggest gains, adding nearly 1.5 cents, according to Tradeweb data.

The moves only partially reverse some of the steep losses triggered last Thursday and Friday by comments by Khalil about public debt
 

!Aoune32

Well-Known Member
This is what happens when you assign the minstry of finance to a ja7sh baltaji who was head of the marbad in Zahrani during the war. To my knowledge, finance ministers never quite going to universities because this is the nature of finance. Bas ne7na we have to live with this kalb ibn kalb because some (perhaps many) Shiites prefer to eat shit if it means pissing off their neighbors.

Thats why there should be no deal. Take the MOF ghasban 3an ra2ebto. Chou hal 7mar 7eda. Fe 7ada bi2oul li 2alo houwe. L 3ama chou ja7ash.
 
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Resign

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
it's too quite on this front for some reason
i wonder why those social media heroes that only attack Bassil, President and FPM are quiet about this
i wonder why FPM are quiet about this

This is a huge scandal and should not go unnoticed
 

lebanese1

Legendary Member
البستاني : فلينتبه السياسيون لأقوالهم ...ففي المال السياسة تحسب بالنتائج لا بالنوايا

14JANUARY2019

الهيكلة والجدولة في سوق السندات تعني مسارا إفلاسيا يجب تفادي الحديث عنها
دعا النائب الدكتور فريد البستاني المسؤولين السياسيين إلى توخي الحذر والإنتباه في التصريحات واالمواقف التي تصدر عنهم حول الأوضاع المالية ، لأنه "في المال تحسب السياسة بالنتائج لا بالنوايا" خصوصا ما يتصل منها بالدين العام وكيفية تعامل الدولة معه .

كلام البستاني الذي ورد في مقال له في جريدة البناء حول الدين العام والمسؤولية السياسية أشار إلى أنه "في قاموس تجار السندات، إعادة الهيكلة أو إعادة الجدولة هما مؤشّر واضح على مستوى الأزمة التي يعيشها لبنان، والتي تستدعي القيام بإجراءين يعكسان مساراً إفلاسياً للدولة ويرفعان من احتمالات التخلّف عن السداد، وتعني بين احتمالي إعادة الهيكلة والجدولة فرضية القلق من مصادرة الدولة لنسبة من قيمة السندات لتخفيف مديونيتها كما حالات إعادة الهيكلة المعروفة، وتسبّب في حالات إعادة الجدولة قلقاً آخر بأن تفرض الدولة على حاملي السندات تجديداً قسرياً في اكتتاباتهم على فترات طويلة، وكلّ من الحالتين تعني دخول لبنان في سباق مع الإفلاس وهو مؤشر سيّئ وخطير

"وأضافا البستاني اليس صعباً على من يتابع التأثيرين الداخلي والخارجي للثقة، ملاحظة درجة المتابعة الحثيثة التي يبديها الخارج في قراءة الانكماش وتأثيراته، ومواكبة الإدارة السياسية وتعاملها مع الوضع المالي، وقد ظهرت تصنيفات لبنان في حال تراجع بإشارة أولى مع مؤشر «موديز» الذي نقل تصنيف لبنان من مستقرّ إلى سلبي، بالربط مع حال التعثر الحكومي، والمؤشر يهتمّ بتصنيف الدول واقتصاداتها لجهة درجة الثقة بقدرتها على الوفاء بالتزاماتها، وهو أمر غاية في الحساسية والخطورة ، بينما كشفت تعاملات السوق مع كلام وزير المالية عن الجدولة والهيكلة لسندات دين رغم توضيحاته أن لبنان في وضع حساس ودقيق لا يحتمل المخاطرة .

وختم البستاني بالقول أن السياسيين المطالبين بالأفعال التي تخرج لبنان من التعثر الحكومي لرفع منسوب الثقة فيه مدعون إن لم يستطيعوا تقديم الأفعال الإنتباه للأقوال التي قد تصيب الثقة الهشة أصلا بالوضع السياسي في لبنان مستعينا بقول المتنبي «لا خيل عندك تهديها ولا مال… فليسعد النطق إنْ لم يسعد الحال«.
البناء
 

Iron Maiden

Paragon of Bacon
Orange Room Supporter
it's too quite on this front for some reason
i wonder why those social media heroes that only attack Bassil, President and FPM are quiet about this
i wonder why FPM are quiet about this

This is a huge scandal and should not go unnoticed
Since when did fpm media do anything right on the communication field?
Bas mnih 7ass bl sokhen berri
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
barely 3 years in control and things are becoming disastrous to the economy

1- miscalculating the selselet by over $1.2 Bil
2- out of control jobs at the public sector
3- erratic and unprofessional statements about the economy that has damaged our already tattered reputation



anno, with sanyoura we knew he was a thief, but at least a smart one who kept things under control
now we have a thief and a dumb one for that matter
 

HannaTheCrusader

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
not only a muslim is in charge of finance , but a shia for that matter

he has issues differentiating between CDs and CDs latem
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
Since when did fpm media do anything right on the communication field?
Bas mnih 7ass bl sokhen berri
it is not just FPM's media, no one is even daring to address the subject head on. and el anka men heik baddo yerja3 hayda el 3amil 3ali hassan khalil wazir meliyi in the new government.
 

Jo

Administrator
Master Penguin
it is not just FPM's media, no one is even daring to address the subject head on. and el anka men heik baddo yerja3 hayda el 3amil 3ali hassan khalil wazir meliyi in the new government.
I think everyone is afraid of talking about the subject, just not to create a buzz around it.
 

Resign

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
I think everyone is afraid of talking about the subject, just not to create a buzz around it.

yet Baltaji is threatening another civil war
i think media are quiet about this by orders from the President/Central bank
it's an embarrassment for Lebanon and not just Amal movement
 

Walidos

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
I think everyone is afraid of talking about the subject, just not to create a buzz around it.
The damage is done... unfortunately markets are like this, an event is like a bad stain, takes a second to create and a lot of time to erase, even with the best detergents... you can lose 40% value over a statement, but you don’t recover a 40% crash with a statement... only actions and results over a long period of re-building trust.

But who are we kidding, with Hassan Khalil coming back to the ministry, how can you instill trust? The minimum of governance and accountability is to replace him in the ministry which won’t happen... la2anno nkeye ni this or that. We can’t build a country with nkeyet
 

Dark Angel

Legendary Member
I think everyone is afraid of talking about the subject, just not to create a buzz around it.
very true this is one side of it. but no one also addressed his earlier act of pride either when he announced that he proudly stopped deir aamar power plant over a questionable 30 million USD in TVA, tallying losses of more than 10 billion dollars on the Lebanese economy.

they should at least address how on earth and why on earth would our minister of finance intentionally induce billions of dollars of losses on our economy. either he is incompetent or he is a 3amil. there should be an investigation and if he does not end up in prison he should never hold any official position in the state ever again, let alone reinstating him as the minister of finance.
 

Resign

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
Riad Saleme doing his magic

صدر اليوم عن مصرف لبنان قرارٌ يوجب على "المؤسّسات التي تقوم بعمليّات التحاويل النقديّة بالوسائل الإلكترونيّة أن تسدّد قيمة التحاويل النقديّة الواردة إليها من الخارج بالليرة اللبنانيّة حصراً".
 
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