Lebanon's Next President

Next president:

  • Suleiman Frangieh

    Votes: 3 10.7%
  • Gebran Bassil

    Votes: 10 35.7%
  • Samir Geagea

    Votes: 9 32.1%
  • Joseph Aoun

    Votes: 6 21.4%
  • Demianos Qatar

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Michel Aoun (extention)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Riad Salame

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    28

The_FPMer

Well-Known Member
France couldn’t care less, and Biden doesn't know where he is. They had their best opportunity with Trump, so I doubt there will even be a next president.

Anyway, I vote Geagea, just because I like seeing the Aounies and Hezbos trolled.
If only mad trolling skillz builds nations. You're a regular on Patriots.win most likely eh?
 

Mrsrx

Not an expert!
Staff member
If only mad trolling skillz builds nations. You're a regular on Patriots.win most likely eh?
Serious question do you really think the lebanese president can have a real positive impact on the country?

From where i stand, the way the role was drawn in Taef (by R.Hariri apparently from what Karim Pakradoni said but who knows) the position only has a blocking powers but 0 constructive powers.
So the lebanese president can only hold the country hostage if it is being massacred by the PM and co but can never do much to combat it. The role is a negative role and any powerful president will only block everything and that is why the grey weak are useful in this position.

In short either the president makes life difficult for everyone as they block everything and the country spirals downwards while everyone squanders to make deals to unblock it and the president will be viewed as a d**khead or they fall in line and get what they get from what is left from the cake.
 

Dr. Strangelove

Nuclear War Expert
Staff member
Serious question do you really think the lebanese president can have a real positive impact on the country?

From where i stand, the way the role was drawn in Taef the position only has a blocking power but 0 constructive powers.
So the lebanese president can only hold the country hostage if it is being massacred by the PM and co but can never do much to combat it. The role is a negative role and any powerful president will only block everything and that is why the grey weak are useful in this position.

In short either the president makes life difficult for everyone as they block everything and the country spirals downwards while everyone squanders to make deals to unblock it and the president will be viewed as a d**khead or they fall in line and get what they get from what is left from the cake.
You're absolutely right, I think. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only way the president can have a meaningful proactive role is if he's (truly) supported by a rock-solid majority in parliament. Even then, he'd have to basically change the entire political class without inciting civil war.

The realities of a flawed parliamentarian system...
 

Mrsrx

Not an expert!
Staff member
You're absolutely right, I think. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only way the president can have a meaningful proactive role is if he's (truly) supported by a rock-solid majority in parliament. Even then, he'd have to basically change the entire political class without inciting civil war.

The realities of a flawed parliamentarian system...
A flawed parliamentary confessional system where people vote according to religion and that president if supported by 100% of christians would only have 64/128 (in the case where christians vote for the christians at a 100% rate) which is not enough to even pass a law.
As peope vote this way it garantees the impossibility of having a solid majority without having to resort to any shady dealings.

Another safety measure for the system is that the Speaker of the house controls the schedule so that rocksolid majority becomes useless(in this system would rely on Berri's goodwill if you want to avoid the civil war)

The last wall is the PM choice... again to avoid that civil war.

As long as the lebanese vote this way the system is built to be either blocked or go with the flow without making any significant change and keep those who have control in control.

In short this system baddo 7are2 and its not only about the president. Lets say we get a goodwilled PM what can they do ! nothing. So hole "early elections" 7ake is useless. Lebanon needs a full fledged consitutional rewrite and most importantly we need to turn it off and on again.
 

Dr. Strangelove

Nuclear War Expert
Staff member
A flawed parliamentary confessional system where people vote according to religion and that president if supported by 100% of christians would only have 64/128 (in the case where christians vote for the christians at a 100% rate) which is not enough to even pass a law.
As peope vote this way it garantees the impossibility of having a solid majority without having to resort to any shady dealings.

Another safety measure for the system is that the Speaker of the house controls the schedule so that rocksolid majority (in this system would rely on Berri's goodwill if you want to avoid the civil war)

The last wall is the PM choice... again to avoid that civil war.

As long as the lebanese vote this way the system is built to be either blocked or go with the flow without making any significant change and keep those who have control in control.

In short this system baddo 7are2 and its not only about the president. Lets say we get a goodwilled PM what can they do ! nothing. So hole "early elections" 7ake is useless. Lebanon needs a full fledged consitutional rewrite and most importantly we need to turn it off and on again.
I agree with every word.

Of course, you'd still have a way out of this "rigged game" if you could either form a party that speaks to people across all confessions (easier said than done, since you'd also be turning some people from "your" sect off by flirting with the so-called "other" voter) or find a political partner representing the "other" that's as willing to fix the country as you are.

A lot of "ifs" come with that statement, too. You need to successfully dodge the sectarian environment that will constantly be encouraged by the mafia state (which has more money and more influence than you) until you establish that majority. You need to find willing popular support that will stick by you. You need to find a political ally that will be equally stubborn and well-meaning...

When one looks at that way, one could maybe understand why the FPM banked so much on Hezbollah coming good even after all these years. Personally, I'd rather see the FPM actively court non-Christian voters and actually aim for that cross-sectarian parliamentary majority. It's a lofty ambition, probably an unattainable dream, but it does seem like this is what the FPM is trying to do going forward.

At any rate, there will be no fixing this country with a brain-dead voterbase. Nothing can change without meaningful popular support. Therein lies the real root of our problems, if you ask me.
 

Mrsrx

Not an expert!
Staff member
I agree with every word.

Of course, you'd still have a way out of this "rigged game" if you could either form a party that speaks to people across all confessions (easier said than done, since you'd also be turning some people from "your" sect off by flirting with the so-called "other" voter) or find a political partner representing the "other" that's as willing to fix the country as you are.

A lot of "ifs" come with that statement, too. You need to successfully dodge the sectarian environment that will constantly be encouraged by the mafia state (which has more money and more influence than you) until you establish that majority. You need to find willing popular support that will stick by you. You need to find a political ally that will be equally stubborn and well-meaning...

When one looks at that way, one could maybe understand why the FPM banked so much on Hezbollah coming good even after all these years. Personally, I'd rather see the FPM actively court non-Christian voters and actually aim for that cross-sectarian parliamentary majority. It's a lofty ambition, probably an unattainable dream, but it does seem like this is what the FPM is trying to do going forward.

At any rate, there will be no fixing this country with a brain-dead voterbase. Nothing can change without meaningful popular support. Therein lies the real root of our problems, if you ask me.
Back when i used to support FPM it was for this reason as the party did not market itself as a christian one but preached a non confessional system. Unfortunately things change.

baby steps ... a far from perfect system is where you have 1 side that governs and another side as the opposition and the opposition should behave like grownups because they simply lost the elections. You can start building that by instanting lists of 128 people (in lebanon 2 lists 50% each because we always find a way to get blocked)for the whole country from all confessions. That would make all lists court everyone and would make people vote for everyone and kill regional zou3ama and their weight drops heavily. At least on a transitional basis.


When a side wins you let it govern for a few years by actually getting their way. In order to do that some "blocking" factors such as Telet Mou3attel and Speaker should be lifted.

Anyway all of this is wishful thinking.... i do not have any hope left in me to be honest.
 

Aegon

Well-Known Member
This thread is a joke. Why would you even consider Riad Salameh? The most hated man in Lebanon. Unless this Lady Gaga poster is Riad himself or he is a clueless 14 yo kid.

And he is not even asking a question. Is it "Who do you want as President?" or "Who do you think has the most chance of becoming President?"
 

Dr. Strangelove

Nuclear War Expert
Staff member
This thread is a joke. Why would you even consider Riad Salameh? The most hated man in Lebanon. Unless this Lady Gaga poster is Riad himself or he is a clueless 14 yo kid.

And he is not even asking a question. Is it "Who do you want as President?" or "Who do you think has the most chance of becoming President?"
Someone's in a rather bad mood. 😅

Who else do you think might be in the running instead of Riri, then?
 

JB81

Legendary Member
The Taef should be amended giving the President more powers; to have a semi-presidential system

More powers to the president, it means the President should be voted directly from the people( keep it confessional, only a Maronite can run)

I think this is good improvement to the political system
 
If LF backs anyone from their party or block for presidency other than Samir Geagea, say Georges Adouane or Ziad Hawat for example, would FPM back the LF-backed candidate too ?

Provided that no one from FPM has any chance to get it this time.
 

JB81

Legendary Member
If LF backs anyone from their party or block for presidency other than Samir Geagea, say Georges Adouane or Ziad Hawat for example, would FPM back the LF-backed candidate too ?

Provided that no one from FPM has any chance to get it this time.

If FPM remains the biggest Christian party; than, either Bassil, an FPMer or anyone they pick

As for LF; you have the same problem like FPM with Berri, Hariri, Joumblat, however, a veto from HA

HA doesn't trust LF; so veto in a real sense since no one can trespass HA in such sensitive position as the Presidency.

Michel Sleiman was a mistake that HA learned not to accept Trust even a centrist candidate, how is it an LF who are arch enemies Saudi slaves
 
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