Lebanon's Next President

[JB81]

Presidential elections are scheduled to happen 90 days before the current president term ends aka August 2022, if the 2022 general election results are similar to 2018, Suleiman Frangieh is most likely to become the next president.

Not before ybous therese

 

[zero]

ask HA. only they get to decide.

 

[flag-waver]

Presidential elections are scheduled to happen 90 days before the current president term ends aka August 2022, if the 2022 general election results are similar to 2018, Suleiman Frangieh is most likely to become the next president.

Depends on the blocks in power from the elections. w nchalla la2.

 

[flag-waver]

ask HA. only they get to decide.

If the blocks play their role properly and stop blocking the elections as they did in the past we can have a President. Let them go to Parliament and vote for the man they see as President easy!

 

[VipModz]

Not before ybous therese

ask HA. only they get to decide.

Depends on the blocks in power from the elections. w nchalla la2.

With the new quadruple alliance (Berri, Hariri, Jumblatt, Frangieh) they don't need FPM or HA or LF approval, assuming they get similar results next year:

FM: 21 | Amal: 17 | PSP: 9 | Marada: 7 | AZM: 4 | SSNP: 3 | Elie Ferezli: 1 | Adnan Trabulsi: 1 | Kassem Hachem: 1 | Abdul Rahim Mrad: 1

in total: 65 which is enough to elect a president according to the 1/2+1 rule

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

With the new quadruple alliance (Berri, Hariri, Jumblatt, Frangieh) they don't need FPM or HA or LF approval, assuming they get similar results next year:

FM: 21 | Amal: 17 | PSP: 9 | Marada: 7 | AZM: 4 | SSNP: 3 | Elie Ferezli: 1 | Jihad Samad: 1 | Kassem Hachem: 1 | Faysal Karami: 1

in total: 65 which is enough to elect a president according to the 1/2+1 rule

Good point. Yikes, close one too.

These elections will be make-or-break for almost everyone involved, and on so many levels.

Personally, I don't see FM maintaining their number (they've been on a steady decline since 2006). Also, aren't Marada only 3 MPs, or is my memory failing me?

 

[Aegon]

Yea FM is most certainly dropping in mps.
And Franjieyeh only has 3, where did u get 7?

And again this poll is a joke.

 

[VipModz]

Also, aren't Marada only 3 MPs, or is my memory failing me?

They are 3 but their takatol is 7

 

[Notorious]

With the new quadruple alliance (Berri, Hariri, Jumblatt, Frangieh) they don't need FPM or HA or LF approval, assuming they get similar results next year:

FM: 21 | Amal: 17 | PSP: 9 | Marada: 7 | AZM: 4 | SSNP: 3 | Elie Ferezli: 1 | Jihad Samad: 1 | Kassem Hachem: 1 | Faysal Karami: 1

in total: 65 which is enough to elect a president according to the 1/2+1 rule

That’s a BIG assumption.

 

[VipModz]

And Franjieyeh only has 3, where did u get 7?

كتلة التكتل الوطني

they have a deceased MP but as I said "assuming they get similar results"

 

[Aegon]

With the new quadruple alliance (Berri, Hariri, Jumblatt, Frangieh) they don't need FPM or HA or LF approval, assuming they get similar results next year:

FM: 21 | Amal: 17 | PSP: 9 | Marada: 7 | AZM: 4 | SSNP: 3 | Elie Ferezli: 1 | Jihad Samad: 1 | Kassem Hachem: 1 | Faysal Karami: 1

in total: 65 which is enough to elect a president according to the 1/2+1 rule

Franjiyeh i think has the highest chance of being elected just because of his various alliances, although he is the least qualified.
Bassil and Geagea are probably the most divisive candidates and will not be elected unless there is agreement amoungst LF and FPM similar to Aouns election. This is highly unlikely.

Someone who is considered "Strong Christian" and consensual can only be elected in this environment.

 

[flag-waver]

With the new quadruple alliance (Berri, Hariri, Jumblatt, Frangieh) they don't need FPM or HA or LF approval, assuming they get similar results next year:

FM: 21 | Amal: 17 | PSP: 9 | Marada: 7 | AZM: 4 | SSNP: 3 | Elie Ferezli: 1 | Adnan Trabulsi: 1 | Kassem Hachem: 1 | Abdul Rahim Mrad: 1

in total: 65 which is enough to elect a president according to the 1/2+1 rule

These results wont be the same. FM is going
for probably about 12-15 MP’s at most. SSNP will only get 1. Baalbeck and Marjeyoun MPs going to FPM maybe 1 in Koura bas.

 

[flag-waver]

Franjiyeh i think has the highest chance of being elected just because of his various alliances, although he is the least qualified.
Bassil and Geagea are probably the most divisive candidates and will not be elected unless there is agreement amoungst LF and FPM similar to Aouns election. This is highly unlikely.

Someone who is considered "Strong Christian" and consensual can only be elected in this environment.

La2.
It all depends on the LF and the size of their block. I wouldn’t place Geagea or Bassil or Franjiyeh. Would like to see someone who can fix the country economically.

 

[Patriot]

La2.
It all depends on the LF and the size of their block. I wouldn’t place Geagea or Bassil or Franjiyeh. Would like to see someone who can fix the country economically.

Geagea should drop his presidency ambitions and focus on grooming this guy for the position

 

[Aegon]

La2.
It all depends on the LF and the size of their block. I wouldn’t place Geagea or Bassil or Franjiyeh. Would like to see someone who can fix the country economically.

It does not matter if LF have 30 mps, they will still have veto from HA and Amal mps. Actually Berri's convenient line is he "will support whomever Christians agree on". Which mean LF and FPM.

But yes i agree, what we NEED is someone who is qualified and capable to fix the economy.
I personally like carlos ghosn, his resume speaks for itself.

 

[flag-waver]

It does not matter if LF have 30 mps, they will still have veto from HA and Amal mps. Actually Berri's convenient line is he "will support whomever Christians agree on". Which mean LF and FPM.

But yes i agree, what we NEED is someone who is qualified and capable to fix the economy.
I personally like carlos ghosn, his resume speaks for itself.

Carlos Ghosn
La2…
Im with @Patriot I would like to see Ziad Hawat but for now we need two things.

1) Decentralisation
2) Economy

The Presidency shouldn’t be like this. You go to
Parliament vote for one and he becomes President easy. This veto shit should stop.

If the LF get 30 MPs we also have nearly 1/4 of the Parliament and we will also have a veto. We nearly half of the christian MPs.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

@Aegon @flag-waver Guys, we weren't kidding when we said the president can't do shit in this system. Even if someone with the competence to fix the economy gets the position, irrespective of their political affiliation or lack thereof, they will quickly discover that they are fighting bare-handed in a gunfight.

 

[flag-waver]

@Aegon @flag-waver Guys, we weren't kidding when we said the president can't do shit in this system. Even if someone with the competence to fix the economy gets the position, irrespective of their political affiliation or lack thereof, they will quickly discover that they are fighting bare-handed in a gunfight.

I don’t have the same opinion my friend. I think the President can do ktir bas wa2fo l nkeyet. Ma bas 3andak the Presidency. 3andak 29 MPs with 11 ministers who can block any decision.

 

[Bandar]

With the new quadruple alliance (Berri, Hariri, Jumblatt, Frangieh) they don't need FPM or HA or LF approval, assuming they get similar results next year:

FM: 21 | Amal: 17 | PSP: 9 | Marada: 7 | AZM: 4 | SSNP: 3 | Elie Ferezli: 1 | Adnan Trabulsi: 1 | Kassem Hachem: 1 | Abdul Rahim Mrad: 1

in total: 65 which is enough to elect a president according to the 1/2+1 rule

The alliance you described has never truly existed and will never exist, because sunni loyalty to hariri is not that strong and definitely not strong enough to withstand alliance with traditional M8 parties. Berri’s entire political strategy also relies on very good relations with HA. Also FM will not get 21 MP in the next election, he will be lucky with 10.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

I don’t have the same opinion my friend. I think the President can do ktir bas wa2fo l nkeyet. Ma bas 3andak the Presidency. 3andak 29 MPs with 11 ministers who can block any decision.

You can block (sometimes) but you cannot pass anything. A president will be wanting to enact his plan for the country. Baddo ymashe el 2osas, mesh ywa22ef. Blocking doesn't help him at all, not in the slightest.