Parliamentary elections 2018 Let's have a calm look back

Silence

Silence

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
@Venomous Hummingbird asked me this in another thread.
"Hi there, what are your thoughts on the Lebanese elections as someone who's active in the moujtama3 madani? Was it below your expectations? Are you optimistic about the future? etc."
------------------------
So, although I think we all need more time to analyze things, here we go.

Beside helping 3 close friends (in 3 very different regions and who of course didn’t make it), I was not really active during the last elections for many personal and ideological reasons.
I don’t really believe in the “Civil society” naming convention but I’ll use it anyways, let’s cal it CS.

To start, there is no CS. There are individuals with different motivations and political/economic/environmental beliefs and concepts of life and of course with different - very different- levels of honesty, knowledge and egocentrism. In short, we have the good, the bad, the beautiful and the ugly, we even have the sab3a thing.

It’s not that bad, people don’t have to be clones to work together, only the nazis think so. But in order to work together they need to define their bound -even before defining common goals- they need to be what Regis Debray calls a “Human Communion”, a group with a meaningful bound. Till now, the most internally and widely used term to define this bound was the vague “people like us” (ne7na w yelli b yeshbahouna) and it sounds to my ears as ugly as the confessional “Minnina”.

This approach is so chaotic that it was enough for Sab3a to talk to their mirror mirror on the wall and their vault behind the wall to become the fer-de-lance of CS. What happened before announcing the 66 candidates of KW is a long boring story. Bottom line, 15 of those 66 are real good people, better than any of the elected, but they deserved loosing because to win you need to convince people and the CS does not know how to talk to people not even the alphabet of it. So even a Sarkis Sarkis had more chances than a Charbel Nahas, sad, very sad, but true. (to be honest Nahas did even better than we expected).

In order to face the disgusting Lebanese system with ALL his sorcerers you cannot just run a koullouna watani against them without a solid base of people who believe in you, who believe in you for your substance, but how to prove this substance to the people without being in an official position to demonstrate it….and… what substance are we talking about?

The Lebanese people don’t believe in the system, which also means that they don’t believe in those “working against the system”, it’s kind-a the same shit for them, it goes both ways. They vote for direct benefit (Berri system) or by fear of the “even worse” (Hariri/Bassil system), it looks like only HA and LF have real “Human Communions”.

Somehow there is a good side to it, I am among those who believe that nothing positive can come out of a negation, “La lil fasad” “La Lil Ta2ifiah” La… La…. you cannot define yourself by what you’re against, it only makes you as idiotic at the “Moumana3a” crowd.

So, where do we go from here?
 
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  • Lebnaouneh

    Lebnaouneh

    Well-Known Member
    @Venomous Hummingbird asked me this in another thread.
    "Hi there, what are your thoughts on the Lebanese elections as someone who's active in the moujtama3 madani? Was it below your expectations? Are you optimistic about the future? etc."
    ------------------------
    So, although I think we all need more time to analyze things, here we go.

    Beside helping 3 close friends (in 3 very different regions and who of course didn’t make it), I was not really active during the last elections for many personal and ideological reasons.
    I don’t really believe in the “Civil society” naming convention but I’ll use it anyways, let’s cal it CS.

    To start, there is no CS. There are individuals with different motivations and political/economic/environmental beliefs and concepts of life and of course with different - very different- levels of honesty, knowledge and egocentrism. In short, we have the good, the bad, the beautiful and the ugly, we even have the sab3a thing.

    It’s not that bad, people don’t have to be clones to work together, only the nazis think so. But in order to work together they need to define their bound -even before defining common goals- they need to be what Regis Debray calls a “Human Communion”, a group with a meaningful bound. Till now, the most internally and widely used term to define this bound was the vague “people like us” (ne7na w yelli b yeshbahouna) and it sounds to my ears as ugly as the confessional “Minnina”.

    This approach is so chaotic that it was enough for Sab3a to talk to their mirror mirror on the wall and their vault behind the wall to become the fer-de-lance of CS. What happened before announcing the 66 candidates of KW is a long boring story. Bottom line, 15 of those 66 are real good people, better than any of the elected, but they deserved loosing because to win you need to convince people and the CS does not know how to talk to people not even the alphabet of it. So even a Sarkis Sarkis had more chances than a Charbel Nahas, sad, very sad, but true. (to be honest Nahas did even better than we expected).

    In order to face the disgusting Lebanese system with ALL his sorcerers you cannot just run a koullouna watani against them without a solid base of people who believe in you, who believe in you for your substance, but how to prove this substance to the people without being in an official position to demonstrate it….and… what substance are we talking about?

    The Lebanese people don’t believe in the system, which also means that they don’t believe in those “working against the system”, it’s kind-a the same shit for them, it goes both ways. They vote for direct benefit (Berri system) or by fear of the “even worse” (Hariri/Bassil system), it looks like only HA and LF have real “Human Communions”.

    Somehow there is a good side to it, I am among those who believe that nothing positive can come out of a negation, “La lil fasad” “La Lil Ta2ifiah” La… La…. you cannot define yourself by what you’re against, it only makes you as idiotic at the “Moumana3a” crowd.

    So, where do we go from here?
    Everybody becomes aouneh because FPM is the only party fighting to improve the situation using a realistic approach that gets results
     
    IsaBells

    IsaBells

    All the jingle ladies, put your hands up!
    Orange Room Supporter
    I think the biggest issues with the "civil society" is that they weren't established enough, and as you said had little to nothing in common with each other other than being against the political establishment, heyde kamena for lack of a better word lol.

    People establish a base, a set of beliefs, principles etc. Before they run for elections! For example here in France macron came out of nowhere with en marche and won but people knew exactly what they were voting for, he had an established program, he explained his exact plans etc. The civil society or rather the different factions had the people's support once upon a time but they failed to invest that into a meaningful change. Much like the case with fpm, they were the biggest and the brightest stars in the sky of anti corruption, unfortunately they started dimming over time lol!

    In Lebanon we had a fully fledged party pop out of nowhere, they didn't even have a history with the 2015 protests, with big funding and serious question marks, and bam 60 candidates for elections! Ye3ne seemingly overnight we had random people running for elections on behalf of sabaa!

    Anyway I don't really know where we go from here, I hope the good people still motivated to save this country keep the spark alive and maybe work harder and don't rush things in the future, you need to build people's trust in you before you decide to invest in it!
     
    Last edited:
    Venomous Hummingbird

    Venomous Hummingbird

    New Member
    @Venomous Hummingbird asked me this in another thread.
    "Hi there, what are your thoughts on the Lebanese elections as someone who's active in the moujtama3 madani? Was it below your expectations? Are you optimistic about the future? etc."
    ------------------------
    So, although I think we all need more time to analyze things, here we go.

    Beside helping 3 close friends (in 3 very different regions and who of course didn’t make it), I was not really active during the last elections for many personal and ideological reasons.
    I don’t really believe in the “Civil society” naming convention but I’ll use it anyways, let’s cal it CS.

    To start, there is no CS. There are individuals with different motivations and political/economic/environmental beliefs and concepts of life and of course with different - very different- levels of honesty, knowledge and egocentrism. In short, we have the good, the bad, the beautiful and the ugly, we even have the sab3a thing.

    It’s not that bad, people don’t have to be clones to work together, only the nazis think so. But in order to work together they need to define their bound -even before defining common goals- they need to be what Regis Debray calls a “Human Communion”, a group with a meaningful bound. Till now, the most internally and widely used term to define this bound was the vague “people like us” (ne7na w yelli b yeshbahouna) and it sounds to my ears as ugly as the confessional “Minnina”.

    This approach is so chaotic that it was enough for Sab3a to talk to their mirror mirror on the wall and their vault behind the wall to become the fer-de-lance of CS. What happened before announcing the 66 candidates of KW is a long boring story. Bottom line, 15 of those 66 are real good people, better than any of the elected, but they deserved loosing because to win you need to convince people and the CS does not know how to talk to people not even the alphabet of it. So even a Sarkis Sarkis had more chances than a Charbel Nahas, sad, very sad, but true. (to be honest Nahas did even better than we expected).

    In order to face the disgusting Lebanese system with ALL his sorcerers you cannot just run a koullouna watani against them without a solid base of people who believe in you, who believe in you for your substance, but how to prove this substance to the people without being in an official position to demonstrate it….and… what substance are we talking about?

    The Lebanese people don’t believe in the system, which also means that they don’t believe in those “working against the system”, it’s kind-a the same shit for them, it goes both ways. They vote for direct benefit (Berri system) or by fear of the “even worse” (Hariri/Bassil system), it looks like only HA and LF have real “Human Communions”.

    Somehow there is a good side to it, I am among those who believe that nothing positive can come out of a negation, “La lil fasad” “La Lil Ta2ifiah” La… La…. you cannot define yourself by what you’re against, it only makes you as idiotic at the “Moumana3a” crowd.

    So, where do we go from here?
    Thank you for your post. Where there any threats/coercions towards the planners/organizers/candidates? Any was5anet? And do you think the clientele system can be defeated when deprived people vote for specific 5adamet? Moreover, even if couple of MPs were able to secure couple of seats, what can they do in a system that is able to block any bill? That's the million dollar question. What is the margin and the room for maneuver when you're under siege from the ruling powers?
     
    Venomous Hummingbird

    Venomous Hummingbird

    New Member
    Everybody becomes aouneh because FPM is the only party fighting to improve the situation using a realistic approach that gets results
    I hope so but you can't minimize corruption by allying with the head of corruption, the Hariri clan. Also Berri has complete immunity from HA.
     
    Silence

    Silence

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Thank you for your post. Where there any threats/coercions towards the planners/organizers/candidates? Any was5anet? And do you think the clientele system can be defeated when deprived people vote for specific 5adamet? Moreover, even if couple of MPs were able to secure couple of seats, what can they do in a system that is able to block any bill? That's the million dollar question. What is the margin and the room for maneuver when you're under siege from the ruling powers?
    There was some serious threats in North, Bekaa and South, but I don't believe that it changed drastically the results, there is a common belief among CS insiders that if all was fair, the real nbr is 4 elected/66, meaningful but it won't have changed a lot. But as @Isabella brought Macron case (and although comparing with France is unfair), I'd say that yes you have a chance when you're inside, at least to shine and build an image for the future like Macron did when he was a minister of finance under Hollande. The case of Charbel Nahas is similar, the public didn't know him before he became a minister and took a stand against all, even the FPM who brought him, it brought him a lot of respect (OK if he had the charisma of Macron and the support of the banks and the love of the media - that Macron got- he would have done a way better, but the guy does not compromise (even when he should).
     
    Lebnaouneh

    Lebnaouneh

    Well-Known Member
    I hope so but you can't minimize corruption by allying with the head of corruption, the Hariri clan. Also Berri has complete immunity from HA.
    A lot of people think otherwise, that HA is helping FPM corner Amal and Hariri has been delivering on his promises
    Let’s wait and see how things go for the next 4 years, the picture will be clear right or left by then
     
    Venomous Hummingbird

    Venomous Hummingbird

    New Member
    A lot of people think otherwise, that HA is helping FPM corner Amal and Hariri has been delivering on his promises
    Let’s wait and see how things go for the next 4 years, the picture will be clear right or left by then
    That's fairy-tale being circulated among FPMers for a long long time. Wa2ta nto5ib GMA president many thought that Berri is finished. Now everyone is voting for him w henne w mabsoutin. What promises did Hariri deliver? El corruption meshye w 3a 3aynak ya tejir. He has hit a financial rock bottom. He'll rape and pillage like never before. As for HA, SHN promised to fight corruption, so we'll see what happens. Bu Aounists need to get rid of the comical belief that HA maghroum fikon w la7 ye5rob his own Shia community kermelkon. . Time will tell, hopefully you're right.
     
    Lebnaouneh

    Lebnaouneh

    Well-Known Member
    That's fairy-tale being circulated among FPMers for a long long time. Wa2ta nto5ib GMA president many thought that Berri is finished. Now everyone is voting for him w henne w mabsoutin. What promises did Hariri deliver? El corruption meshye w 3a 3aynak ya tejir. He has hit a financial rock bottom. He'll rape and pillage like never before. As for HA, SHN promised to fight corruption, so we'll see what happens. Bu Aounists need to get rid of the comical belief that HA maghroum fikon w la7 ye5rob his own Shia community kermelkon. . Time will tell, hopefully you're right.
    Lol, I don't think Hezbollah will be doing it for the love of FPM
    Yes time will tell
     
    Silence

    Silence

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Now the power in Lebanon is concentrated between 2 poles: the muscles of HA and the money of the Bankers, they don’t love each other but found out a common ground. Money needs the stability that only HA can secure and muscles need a State-like PR lady to hide behind and both don’t want a total economic crash (not sure if they can avoid it though).

    All the guys we talk about here from Hariri to Bassil to Berri or jumbi or whomever are either full time employees of one pole or doing half time with both, even those who lost are ready to free-lance when called and some small fish will be sacrificed in a "fighting corruption" parade. The president is the queen of England they agreed about. This is not going to change soon (except by a cataclysm that no one wants)

    From here I think that anyone who believes that a better life for humans (as well as for fauna and flora) is still achievable in this country has to go to the basics. The CS wanted to play the World Cup without going through the qualifications. But even with “2 bears in the garden”, we still need to defend our toes from being too squashed.

    We need to keep fighting for “small” causes (disappeared, disabled, freedom of speech against censorship, Public space, Public schools and transportation, environment, LGBT etc…) as well as connect with people and prepare to take the municipalities. Then give people a cleaner neighborhood and a place for their children to play, safely, make few promises that we can keep.

    keep them and then ask people to break their fear… in 8 years from now, yes we can do something. (no worries sab3a already left the room before I finish the sentence).
     
    Venomous Hummingbird

    Venomous Hummingbird

    New Member
    Now the power in Lebanon is concentrated between 2 poles: the muscles of HA and the money of the Bankers, they don’t love each other but found out a common ground. Money needs the stability that only HA can secure and muscles need a State-like PR lady to hide behind and both don’t want a total economic crash (not sure if they can avoid it though).

    All the guys we talk about here from Hariri to Bassil to Berri or jumbi or whomever are either full time employees of one pole or doing half time with both, even those who lost are ready to free-lance when called and some small fish will be sacrificed in a "fighting corruption" parade. The president is the queen of England they agreed about. This is not going to change soon (except by a cataclysm that no one wants)

    From here I think that anyone who believes that a better life for humans (as well as for fauna and flora) is still achievable in this country has to go to the basics. The CS wanted to play the World Cup without going through the qualifications. But even with “2 bears in the garden”, we still need to defend our toes from being too squashed.

    We need to keep fighting for “small” causes (disappeared, disabled, freedom of speech against censorship, Public space, Public schools and transportation, environment, LGBT etc…) as well as connect with people and prepare to take the municipalities. Then give people a cleaner neighborhood and a place for their children to play, safely, make few promises that we can keep.

    keep them and then ask people to break their fear… in 8 years from now, yes we can do something. (no worries sab3a already left the room before I finish the sentence).
    The problem is that few Lebanese bankers have big shares in banks. They've been driven out. Only Hariri and Mikati have significant shares in banks. Newcomers like Bassil/Aoun clan are trying to enter the game with Cedrus Bank alongside Raed Khoury. Do you think a new party can wagea covert insurgent war on the financial-political-intelligence-media-religious apparatus without big money or foreign backing? How much of the Lebanese public are really fed up of the current political class and can be counted on to vote? If you look at how Rafic Hariri started politically, he used to co-opt everyone by bribery and secretly pushing his men in opposing lists and groups. I fear that foreign intelligence agencies have too much sway in Lebanon.
     
    Aoune32!

    Aoune32!

    Well-Known Member
    The problem is that few Lebanese bankers have big shares in banks. They've been driven out. Only Hariri and Mikati have significant shares in banks. Newcomers like Bassil/Aoun clan are trying to enter the game with Cedrus Bank alongside Raed Khoury. Do you think a new party can wagea covert insurgent war on the financial-political-intelligence-media-religious apparatus without big money or foreign backing? How much of the Lebanese public are really fed up of the current political class and can be counted on to vote? If you look at how Rafic Hariri started politically, he used to co-opt everyone by bribery and secretly pushing his men in opposing lists and groups. I fear that foreign intelligence agencies have too much sway in Lebanon.
    Cedrus Bank is owned by Tayyar.
    Board of Directors | Cedrus Bank

    BankMed - Future
    Bankmed

    FransaBank
    Board of Directors
    Nehme To3me and Walid Daouk 2al!

    Politicians are funny in this country.
     
    JorjeToTheWorld

    JorjeToTheWorld

    Legendary Member
    I don't think it has much to do with the people running. The fact is that most Lebanese don't want and are not interested in secularism. How can a charbel nahas convince the average Christian to vote for him when he isn't running to "defend their rights". Good luck with that. The average Lebanese is thoroughly detached from that mindset. The only people who will vote for a kulluna watani typecandidate is the average young rebel. Or the self-isolative beirut bourgeoisie. Which what the success of CS seems to be confined to (ie a total joke).

    Perhaps the way forward is to hookup with more forward looking religious authorities like what happened in Iraq to at least have a chance in the more populist circles.
     
    Silence

    Silence

    Well-Known Member
    Orange Room Supporter
    Perhaps the way forward is to hookup with more forward looking religious authorities like what happened in Iraq to at least have a chance in the more populist circles.
    You mean to become a Gebran Bassil? We could even improve the formula: planting crosses while waiting for the Mehdi with a kharzeh zar2a around the neck and create the new multi-ta2ifi party?
    No but seriously, I don't totally disagree with you and that's why I say that the civil society should concentrate all their efforts and resources on the local scale where "defending the rights of the tayfeh" is not an issue and prove in the municipalities that they are worth something, it has also the good side effect of repelling the show off/FB/Twitter guys and girls among CS.
     
    JorjeToTheWorld

    JorjeToTheWorld

    Legendary Member
    You mean to become a Gebran Bassil? We could even improve the formula: planting crosses while waiting for the Mehdi with a kharzeh zar2a around the neck and create the new multi-ta2ifi party?
    No but seriously, I don't totally disagree with you and that's why I say that the civil society should concentrate all their efforts and resources on the local scale where "defending the rights of the tayfeh" is not an issue and prove in the municipalities that they are worth something, it has also the good side effect of repelling the show off/FB/Twitter guys and girls among CS.
    Well, you want someone to be able to connect to the masses. An "enlightened" popular religious figure/someone respected with the masses, is the key. It's a compromise sure, but how else you're going to reach the average traditional poor Lebanese. I don't think we have that person anyway (or at least haven't heard of him yet), so this is all hypothetical. Otherwise, "CS" will remain a toy to be laughed at from time to time and elect people like Paula f*cking Yaacoubian.

    Or you just have to do it the hard way, which means build on the 20k vote or something and make them 25k. But I don't believe the people running had much to do with it. There were plenty of goods and duds, and barely any of it made a difference. Paula f*cking Yaacoubian ended up making it.

    edit: BTW the fact they went around and called themselves "civil society" is tragic by itself. "Civil society" is not how you want people to know/call you. It already makes you look like a useless joke. I know Nahas is vehemently opposed to using that slogan on academic grounds at least, but it's also defunct promotional wise.
     
    Last edited:
    Lebnaouneh

    Lebnaouneh

    Well-Known Member
    Well, you want someone to be able to connect to the masses. An "enlightened" popular religious figure/someone respected with the masses, is the key. It's a compromise sure, but how else you're going to reach the average traditional poor Lebanese. I don't think we have that person anyway (or at least haven't heard of him yet), so this is all hypothetical. Otherwise, "CS" will remain a toy to be laughed at from time to time and elect people like Paula f*cking Yaacoubian.

    Or you just have to do it the hard way, which means build on the 20k vote or something and make them 25k. But I don't believe the people running had much to do with it. There were plenty of goods and duds, and barely any of it made a difference. Paula f*cking Yaacoubian ended up making it.

    edit: BTW the fact they went around and called themselves "civil society" is tragic by itself. "Civil society" is not how you want people to know/call you. It already makes you look like a useless joke. I know Nahas is vehemently opposed to using that slogan on academic grounds at least, but it's also defunct promotional wise.
    And this is how you eventually get allied to Hezbollah, Future, etc
    Compromises with parties that can bring their people to the result of a subject of priority
    Welcome to the path FPM had to take
    Eventually, to succeed in making any kind of change, you will have to do what Bassil is doing
     
    JorjeToTheWorld

    JorjeToTheWorld

    Legendary Member
    And this is how you eventually get allied to Hezbollah, Future, etc
    Compromises with parties that can bring their people to the result of a subject of priority
    Welcome to the path FPM had to take
    Eventually, to succeed in making any kind of change, you will have to do what Bassil is doing
    No thank you, I'll pass on the offer. LOL. Let's leave it at that.
     
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