Not so sure about that. US will push HA to sign peace with Israel and a commitment for no escalation just like they pushed them to accept maritime demarcation. In exchange they’ll give them free reign in Lebanon.
I know this is part of their strategy. The US have no honor or whatsoever, they sold their allies many times - remember South Vietnam.
Iran has also no honor and will accept this at the right price.
HA doesn’t decide anything and they will certainly accept to sign with Israel versus taking over Lebanon - they will do it, and all these years were just to increase their price, increase their bargaining position- we all reinforced HA starting by FPM just for them to increase their price to peace.
Israel is a superpower, it is at peace with the Arabs and part of all regional organisations- they are making huge money with oil extractions and selling /buying to Egypt and soon Arab countries. Signature with Saudi is around the corner. How for Hell can we sustain not signing peace with Israel ? We can’t - Arabs will end up boycotting us and expelling Lebanese.
HA will not be able to sustain a takeover of Lebanon and they know it - my suggestion is to proactively change our model ad set conditions to peace with Israel before they impose them on us