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Oct17 election plans

GrumpForTrump

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
It seems most Christians want separation/federalism on an individual level but their leaders don't.
Why don't they push for that in the next elections?
 

mike89

Active Member
Orange Room Supporter
Whatever the program is, it's an uphill battle, you will be facing
- Clientelism : almost 20% of the voters are state employees, it's more if you count them and their families and employees of private companies owned by them. these will vote directly to whatever they're told to vote to
- Pressures, vote buying , box changing ... and all the things we've seen in the last elections
- Secterian fear, which a big majority still believe in
- The classic 8/14 March where people even if they disagree with FPM will vote for them because they're afraid that LF wins, and the other way around.

So the ambition is not to get a majority, but just to have a breakthrough so people will start seeing alternatives in the years ahead.

Hmmm, what you re listing is of course not new. I would expect however from a genuine revolution to push ahead and put high goals of attaining a majority of votes in the next elections. If one doesn't even aim for that, what was the whole point of this exercise? Just to put 5 to 10 additional mps scattered across ideologies and sentiments making the bickering and ineffectiveness even larger than now?

The Revolution should organize, put a program, talk to people and aim for the real kelloun ye3ne kelloun!!! Why is that not an option? Why are we now looking for small pieces? That's never gonna bring change...
 

dyyyy

Well-Known Member
Hmmm, what you re listing is of course not new. I would expect however from a genuine revolution to push ahead and put high goals of attaining a majority of votes in the next elections. If one doesn't even aim for that, what was the whole point of this exercise? Just to put 5 to 10 additional mps scattered across ideologies and sentiments making the bickering and ineffectiveness even larger than now?

The Revolution should organize, put a program, talk to people and aim for the real kelloun ye3ne kelloun!!! Why is that not an option? Why are we now looking for small pieces? That's never gonna bring change...
I hope this happens and we should aim for it but this is what I'm expecting, I'm pointing out the challenges that we will face, maybe we should handle them one by one
 

HalaMadrid

Well-Known Member
Orange Room Supporter
Hmmm, what you re listing is of course not new. I would expect however from a genuine revolution to push ahead and put high goals of attaining a majority of votes in the next elections. If one doesn't even aim for that, what was the whole point of this exercise? Just to put 5 to 10 additional mps scattered across ideologies and sentiments making the bickering and ineffectiveness even larger than now?

The Revolution should organize, put a program, talk to people and aim for the real kelloun ye3ne kelloun!!! Why is that not an option? Why are we now looking for small pieces? That's never gonna bring change...
I don't vote, so take my political science bullshit for what it's worth (not much). I think what you're getting at is the parties/groups/organizations/whatever have to have a theory of change. If so, I agree. I've seen several really great substantive platforms but no explicit theories of change. To my mind, without that it's futile. If one agrees that the spoils-sharing-obsessed sectarian mafia's stranglehold on power is the key thing that needs to change, then does the party that you're voting for have a theory for breaking that? Among them could be:
- People are so sick of everything they're going to put aside all of their differences and entrenched views and vote for us en masse (lol)
- We can clobber together an MP or two here or there in specific districts and be a loud and/or effective opposition for X years and people will see we're doing good work and slowly put us in the majority
- We can clobber together some MPs and then there are certain parties that we can work with to effect change and form a coalition to slowly bring down the others (though not stated explicitly, it SEEMS like this is MMFD's theory of change)
- Whip out the guillotines
- Full scale military and/or international intervention (see e.g., Bolivia)

The MOU combined with the fight for certain ministries that have a tangible effect on peoples' lives was a theory of change. One that rested on shaky ground and backfired spectacularly, but a theory nonetheless. I'd be interested in seeing other parties develop one.
 

wdawle1

Member
The need to change the law is there. But we will NEVER to play games like we saw with the 1960 electoral law, whereby a minority of national votes were represented by a majority of parliamentary seats through the 2005 and 2009 elections. That will never happen. We wont recognize such an election or parliament and that law or it's like will never be resurrected.

If we are to change the electoral law, it should be for something better:
- Lebanon as one electoral district
- Proprotional representation
- non sectarian representation, non sectarian quotas.

We have 128 MPs. Based on the number of votes each party or list gets across the country, that would be proportionally divided or translated into seats in parliament. That means all the valid votes across the country after the election equal to 128 seats in parliament. Then give each list a number of seats proportional to the number of votes it gets.

Other than this, electoral games will not be acceptable.

but the MTV guys & Junblatt & gage & Hariri won't accept, we can really go with Lebanon one district...and HA alliance easily win the elections.
Out of 1.5 Million votes, Hezbollah alone is 400,000. All you need is between Berri, FPM, Frangieh, Tashnag etc is 350,000 votes.
If those guys lost half their votes from 2018 ( Berri won't lose anything), they would still manage 350,000 together.

Lebanon one district, and all anti-HA guys will block it.
 

Rafidi

Legendary Member
but the MTV guys & Junblatt & gage & Hariri won't accept, we can really go with Lebanon one district...and HA alliance easily win the elections.
Out of 1.5 Million votes, Hezbollah alone is 400,000. All you need is between Berri, FPM, Frangieh, Tashnag etc is 350,000 votes.
If those guys lost half their votes from 2018 ( Berri won't lose anything), they would still manage 350,000 together.

Lebanon one district, and all anti-HA guys will block it.

Then they are not ready for democratic election. They can never again get a majority through a minority of national votes like they did in 2005 and 2009 through the 1960 law.

If they are interested in democratic election and early election and not in electoral gimmicks, then they should go for a one district law and use their election campaign machinery to win votes and get a majority and even take Shia votes from Hezballah, if they can. The law has to be democratic and fair.
 

Leb_Rebel

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
I see so many solutions being proposed but none solves the main problem, the people.

how do you want to fix a country where warlords are still clapped for ? and voted in office for 30 years ?
how do you want to fix a country where corrupted officials are brought back in office time and time again without any significant reaction ?
how do you want to fix a country where marcel ghanem still goes on TV as if he isn't part of the system ? and people watch, and clap ?
how do you want to fix a country where the media still quote jumblatt criticising the system as if he's alien to it ?
how do you want to fix a country where the media still quote Berri telling us how he will fix things ?
how do you want to fix a country where Geagea is applauded and a minister who just landed in politics is shamed ?
how do you want to fix a country where the people can't see history repeating itself ...

There is no hope for this country and as far as I am concerned, I will do everything I can to get my parents out of this shit hole so they can finally live somewhere in peace.
 

The_FPMer

Active Member
Nothing will happen unless decentralization is enacted. I will not vote for anyone unless new political parties with fresh new faces and modern thinking and platforms will emerge. All of the current political parties are failures in their own way. Their mentalities are still stuck in the 20th century, at best. They're not fit to rule over neighborhood let alone a country.
 

dyyyy

Well-Known Member
Hmmm, what you re listing is of course not new. I would expect however from a genuine revolution to push ahead and put high goals of attaining a majority of votes in the next elections. If one doesn't even aim for that, what was the whole point of this exercise? Just to put 5 to 10 additional mps scattered across ideologies and sentiments making the bickering and ineffectiveness even larger than now?

The Revolution should organize, put a program, talk to people and aim for the real kelloun ye3ne kelloun!!! Why is that not an option? Why are we now looking for small pieces? That's never gonna bring change...
Just because my post was so grim :D
One thing to look forward is that things are already started to change.
- In every elections of unions and universities, political parties used to dominate, now in almost all elections, all parties ally together against independents, which shows that change has already started
- We're starting to see new leaders/faces, people like Nizar Saghieh, Melhem Khalaf, a surge in the popularity on Charbel Nahas, authentic reporters like Jad Ghosn, Albert Kostanian...

Now too many questions to answer for the next elections, and give me your opinion :

- Should the revolution ally with people that they can't trust but have more chance to succeed with them ? (for example ally with Chamel roukouz, if the Kataeb tries to ally with them, LCP having ex-deputies ...)
- Who should we trust from all the groups that surged with the revolution, (or we simply hope they all work together) you bave beirut madinati, restart lebanon, ana khat ahmar, .....

I think the baseline should be to boycott all the current political parties who took turns in reigning : FPM, Amal, HA, FM, PSP, LF
 

mike89

Active Member
Orange Room Supporter
everyone should watch this.

Sa77 l nom... Go go go. If elections are coming in 2 or 3 months, work together now. There are online portals for such collaborations, creating drafts, electing ideas and priorities, create leadership and advertise aggressively.
 

mike89

Active Member
Orange Room Supporter
Just because my post was so grim :D
One thing to look forward is that things are already started to change.
- In every elections of unions and universities, political parties used to dominate, now in almost all elections, all parties ally together against independents, which shows that change has already started
- We're starting to see new leaders/faces, people like Nizar Saghieh, Melhem Khalaf, a surge in the popularity on Charbel Nahas, authentic reporters like Jad Ghosn, Albert Kostanian...

Now too many questions to answer for the next elections, and give me your opinion :

- Should the revolution ally with people that they can't trust but have more chance to succeed with them ? (for example ally with Chamel roukouz, if the Kataeb tries to ally with them, LCP having ex-deputies ...)
- Who should we trust from all the groups that surged with the revolution, (or we simply hope they all work together) you bave beirut madinati, restart lebanon, ana khat ahmar, .....

I think the baseline should be to boycott all the current political parties who took turns in reigning : FPM, Amal, HA, FM, PSP, LF

I don't think the guys of the revolution should work with any of the members of parliament right now. They should create a platform and structure their program and define the concrete change process for the next 1 or 2 years based on the fact that they attain the majority directly. Everything else is gonna make things even worse.

It is time for the bazooka right now, not one MP here and there...

At best online with a transparent process. I ve seen clans plan their attacks in online games on discord with more dedication.
 

Nevermore

New Member
Hello fellow forumers,

I would like to start this thread so that you/we try to manage your/our opinions and come up with some united plan for the upcoming elections.

Is there already a party you want to elect? What are the key difference in ideas?

Do you have one main proposition that is not yet adopted by anyone? If yes what is it?

In short how do you plan on making life in Lebanon better?

Are you planning to lobby your friends and family for a new party? Are u living by the kelloun ye3ne kelloun and if yes, what new numbers can you report?

How do you plan on addressing all demographics and religious components?

How do you stand on key issues (financial, Defense, political structure) and more importantly how do you plan on implementing these changes realistically.

Thanks

Firstly, looking at the data we already have present from the 2018 elections, we can see that many of the sawra elements today ran on entirely different lists (Kulluna Watani being the most prominent), with different demands, political aspirations, and ideologies. That is likely to occur in the next parliamentary elections as well as they have not established a cohesive political platform, vision, and unitary goals for Lebanon's future, but also because it's hard to control Lebanese people's individual aspirations.

It's a tall, virtually impossible, task to get any revolutionaries to explicate a coherent plan for the future, and by the future I mean beyond resignation and early elections. In fact, it is fundamentally not within their scope to explicate further demands, but to extract political concessions from one group in favor of another. Further, without significant political weight, weight that they almost certainly will not carry if there were elections next month, they cannot implement any of the supposed projects they might propose if they got their heads together, nor will they have a significant seat at the negotiating table when it comes time to do away with Ta'if and replace it with something else. Even if they support the establishment of a civil state, sawra elements are outside of the political realm of those who are opposed to it, so it will simply look like an elitist plot, furthering religious pearl-clutching.

It suffices to say that those advocating for such changes are among the least politically attuned, and most prone to, or rather carry a specialty in, uncontrollable na22. One of the geniuses that you tagged in a later post in this thread even acknowledges, nay, wholeheartedly accepts and welcomes, that the same corrupt figures will be reelected and remain in power except for those in the Christian community. If that doesn't give you a sense of the disingenuity and naivete of those advocating for revolution, I don't know what will.

This is the only reply I would expect to hear from them concerning a vision for the future:
 

mike89

Active Member
Orange Room Supporter
Firstly, looking at the data we already have present from the 2018 elections, we can see that many of the sawra elements today ran on entirely different lists (Kulluna Watani being the most prominent), with different demands, political aspirations, and ideologies. That is likely to occur in the next parliamentary elections as well as they have not established a cohesive political platform, vision, and unitary goals for Lebanon's future, but also because it's hard to control Lebanese people's individual aspirations.

It's a tall, virtually impossible, task to get any revolutionaries to explicate a coherent plan for the future, and by the future I mean beyond resignation and early elections. In fact, it is fundamentally not within their scope to explicate further demands, but to extract political concessions from one group in favor of another. Further, without significant political weight, weight that they almost certainly will not carry if there were elections next month, they cannot implement any of the supposed projects they might propose if they got their heads together, nor will they have a significant seat at the negotiating table when it comes time to do away with Ta'if and replace it with something else. Even if they support the establishment of a civil state, sawra elements are outside of the political realm of those who are opposed to it, so it will simply look like an elitist plot, furthering religious pearl-clutching.

It suffices to say that those advocating for such changes are among the least politically attuned, and most prone to, or rather carry a specialty in, uncontrollable na22. One of the geniuses that you tagged in a later post in this thread even acknowledges, nay, wholeheartedly accepts and welcomes, that the same corrupt figures will be reelected and remain in power except for those in the Christian community. If that doesn't give you a sense of the disingenuity and naivete of those advocating for revolution, I don't know what will.

This is the only reply I would expect to hear from them concerning a vision for the future:

The point is to get people to think beyond the immediate next step, stimulate political activity and activate the refinement process of ideas, programs and concrete and practical change in the broad forum society. Why not? What's stopping people from getting their heads together and thinking things through.

It's not my attitude to just nag about problems but always try to aim for solutions, and realistic ones please, without going down the slippery slope of civil or external wars. That's the dilemma Lebanon is in since ever and without an actual political work and program of a party or a consortium of parties, there is no hope for betterment. If the base work is done well, advertising for votes should start aggressively based on the concrete next steps aiming for a majority in parliament and taking over the government. That's how change can be done. Getting 5 or 10 mps to sit in the opposition is useless and comparable to the situation we have now. No real change will realistically come out of such result. These parties should aim for a majority in parliament and getting a big part of government ministries. These are the only tools to implement the advertised aspirations. Everything else is selling the whole revolution for 30 of silver.

In my opinion, a huge amount of political responsibility rests now very much on the parties of the revolution since they declared having the majority of the population behind them. If the Lebanese people cannot produce leaders and parties to lead this change, my own sad opinion would be in fact confirmed, that the Lebanese people themselves are the root cause of all this fiasco.

Grow to the challenge and do smth for this freaking country. That s my piece of advice.
 

JustLeb

Legendary Member
Orange Room Supporter
everyone should watch this.


Very true
unfortunately for the moment the thawra knows only about riots.
there are no opinion leaders in it, except Charbel Nahhas and seems not influencer
so bottom line if they don't generate elites and opinion leaders, there will be a problem
 

Nevermore

New Member
The point is to get people to think beyond the immediate next step, stimulate political activity and activate the refinement process of ideas, programs and concrete and practical change in the broad forum society. Why not? What's stopping people from getting their heads together and thinking things through.

It's not my attitude to just nag about problems but always try to aim for solutions, and realistic ones please, without going down the slippery slope of civil or external wars. That's the dilemma Lebanon is in since ever and without an actual political work and program of a party or a consortium of parties, there is no hope for betterment. If the base work is done well, advertising for votes should start aggressively based on the concrete next steps aiming for a majority in parliament and taking over the government. That's how change can be done. Getting 5 or 10 mps to sit in the opposition is useless and comparable to the situation we have now. No real change will realistically come out of such result. These parties should aim for a majority in parliament and getting a big part of government ministries. These are the only tools to implement the advertised aspirations. Everything else is selling the whole revolution for 30 of silver.

In my opinion, a huge amount of political responsibility rests now very much on the parties of the revolution since they declared having the majority of the population behind them. If the Lebanese people cannot produce leaders and parties to lead this change, my own sad opinion would be in fact confirmed, that the Lebanese people themselves are the root cause of all this fiasco.

Grow to the challenge and do smth for this freaking country. That s my piece of advice.

Agreed. It's not happening because killon roos (heads, not Russians). You have too many aspirants for president, and the pervading ideology is "I just need to get ahead of the guy right in front of me, not the guy who's all the way at the top".

For the sake of the debate, I'll try to mock-summarize what I think could be a sawra-inspired plan going forward, but my disclaimer is that my knowledge of what they truly want is limited.
 
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