Oct17 election plans

[JustLeb]

I am no expert in political science and what I will say now, I have already said it in 2005.
Maybe the better system is to elect the president by the people based on a electoral college.
We all know that communities fear each other in lebanon and feel threatened (it seems we are not alone, as even in USA black vs white is still an issue)
so to address this concern, the main big communities in Lebanon (ie chrisitians vs mulsims) each has 500 points to give.
A presidential candidate that wins more than 500 points is elected president for 4 years.
I add to that, the switching between between christians and muslims on the presidency lie what happens in some orders and syndicate in lebanon.
Meaning if the turn is for christian president he picks a muslim vice president who will be a defacto prime minister and vis-versa
In my opinion the benefit of this, is that candidates will have to appeal to the people not to some external power.

this is my humble opinion

 

[Notorious]

Hello fellow forumers,

I would like to start this thread so that you/we try to manage your/our opinions and come up with some united plan for the upcoming elections.

Is there already a party you want to elect? What are the key difference in ideas?

Do you have one main proposition that is not yet adopted by anyone? If yes what is it?

In short how do you plan on making life in Lebanon better?

Are you planning to lobby your friends and family for a new party? Are u living by the kelloun ye3ne kelloun and if yes, what new numbers can you report?

How do you plan on addressing all demographics and religious components?

How do you stand on key issues (financial, Defense, political structure) and more importantly how do you plan on implementing these changes realistically.

Thanks

This deserves a long conversation, but off the top of my head:

Is there already a party you want to elect?

Not aware of any as of yet but when it gets more serious I will definitely keep an eye out.

What are the key difference in ideas?

At this stage it’s most important to find competence with a track record of success but not within the Lebanese government. Also, preferably people as unrelated as possible to the current ruling class.

A few important aspects is that the party needs to be anti-Hezbollah (in its current form) and anti-interference from international players. That doesn’t mean that we can’t have dialogue with all countries including Iran, Saudi, Syria, US etc.

What we really need is a set of solid institutions that hold people accountable. This free for all needs to disappear for good.



Are you planning to lobby your friends and family for a new party?
Yes, those who are open minded enough to listen.

Are u living by the kelloun ye3ne kelloun and if yes, what new numbers can you report?

I would say for the most part yes. It doesn’t mean I put all the politicians in the same basket. For example, I prefer Samir Geagea to all of the current ruling class. But I would prefer voting for a new party if they make their case and instil confidence.



How do you stand on key issues (financial, Defense, political structure) and more importantly how do you plan on implementing these changes realistically.

If we want to save our country and if we want good leaders we have to find good leaders for all of Lebanon and not just one that serves my own personal needs.

For example, obviously anti-corruption.

Strong institutions to go after all of the crooks.

Restore confidence in Lebanon in an international perspective to get the economy rolling again.

Make sure people are held accountable for not paying their fair share in taxes to ensure a stable source of revenue for the state.

A strong army to protect our southern brothers and sisters from a potential Israeli invasion.

 

[GrumpForTrump]

My current plan...

 

[mike89]

It seems like akalna khara all of us... Same old same old. @Manifesto you know now what I meant.

 

[dyyyy]

It seems like akalna khara all of us... Same old same old. @Manifesto you know now what I meant.

for now, we should go back to the streets

 

[Nevermore]

I am no expert in political science and what I will say now, I have already said it in 2005.
Maybe the better system is to elect the president by the people based on a electoral college.
We all know that communities fear each other in lebanon and feel threatened (it seems we are not alone, as even in USA black vs white is still an issue)
so to address this concern, the main big communities in Lebanon (ie chrisitians vs mulsims) each has 500 points to give.
A presidential candidate that wins more than 500 points is elected president for 4 years.
I add to that, the switching between between christians and muslims on the presidency lie what happens in some orders and syndicate in lebanon.
Meaning if the turn is for christian president he picks a muslim vice president who will be a defacto prime minister and vis-versa
In my opinion the benefit of this, is that candidates will have to appeal to the people not to some external power.

this is my humble opinion

Can you think of a case country where this works really well and why?

 

[Notorious]

Can you think of a case country where this works really well and why?

Nothing works really well. What you want is something that works better, something that ticks more, or ideally, most boxes.

 

[Nevermore]

Nothing works really well. What you want is something that works better, something that ticks more, or ideally, most boxes.

What are the contents of those boxes? You have to have some criteria for what you plan to build.

 

[geogeo758]

there is no hope

no elections will save us from this catastrophe we are in

 

[Mrsrx]

@mike89 I think you somewhat got your answer in the form of the absence of a clear united opinion, request and plan.
This is the main problem we are currently facing and before we can advance any further a clear plan or a leader needs to emerge. Before that this is all just uncontrolled chaos unfortunately and will not do the country any good.
There are some good faces in the lot i hope they will consolidate popularity or work together smartly.

As things stand today you will have several lists per district claiming to be the "thawra" cannibalizing votes while political parties consolidate theirs and win. What is worse is that some of those lists will include some parties claiming to be "with the people against the ruling class" while they were the ruling class...

 

[dyyyy]

@mike89 I think you somewhat got your answer in the form of the absence of a clear united opinion, request and plan.
This is the main problem we are currently facing and before we can advance any further a clear plan or a leader needs to emerge. Before that this is all just uncontrolled chaos unfortunately and will not do the country any good.
There are some good faces in the lot i hope they will consolidate popularity or work together smartly.

As things stand today you will have several lists per district claiming to be the "thawra" cannibalizing votes while political parties consolidate theirs and win. What is worse is that some of those lists will include some parties claiming to be "with the people against the ruling class" while they were the ruling class...

They are actually doing this, like in the last elections they did the "ta7alouf watani" lists, the problem is it's easier said and done, normally in a single party you have some feuds, how about completely different parties, some of them are ex-party members, some are leftists, some are idealistic,.... all of them working together and defining who should represent what and what electoral law should be put in place.

Already there is a coalition, but it's an uphill battle, add to the that the current electoral law and the interventions that happens during the elections (Last time, Joumana Haddad won in Achrafieh, and in some strange way after taking out all the delegates from the room they "found out" that she lost, the interventions are that blunt.)

All this is just a start, It's a movement that started a few years ago without international support or funding against a system that's 30 years old entrenched in everything.

 

[Mrsrx]

They are actually doing this, like in the last elections they did the "ta7alouf watani" lists, the problem is it's easier said and done, normally in a single party you have some feuds, how about completely different parties, some of them are ex-party members, some are leftists, some are idealistic,.... all of them working together and defining who should represent what and what electoral law should be put in place.

Already there is a coalition, but it's an uphill battle, add to the that the current electoral law and the interventions that happens during the elections (Last time, Joumana Haddad won in Achrafieh, and in some strange way after taking out all the delegates from the room they "found out" that she lost, the interventions are that blunt.)

All this is just a start, It's a movement that started a few years ago without international support or funding against a system that's 30 years old entrenched in everything.

I agree on the premise but calling for an early elections is actually not that good for the independents as this will be a whole charade and in the end the same will win giving the argument ...see democracy!
If the "revolution leaders" or those who think they are..really have Lebanon's best interests in mind they need to get their acts together make compromises and stop being arrivistes. Most people out in the streets are honest and want the best for the country hope it translates into something more than chaotic requests and leadership as we do not really have another 30years to start the process...need to start today to give results maybe in 10/15 years.

We have to reform the country and close the money drain before being able to build up. Lets stop falling first so left right center all have the same priority stop the corruption raging in every sector...

 

[Jesus-is-the-Lord]

No election law change, that is for sure. All christian parties agree (l7amdelah fi shi byettef2o 3leh) that the current law will prevail in the future.

As for major change in the Parliament, I don't think so, except that HA and FPM and their allies will lose the majority, hence will be unable to form Diab-like failed governements.

FPM should be very wise on how to choose their new allies. They must not engage any election campaign with mini local zou3ama such as mouawad, frem, etc. because such people cannot be trusted, they can turn their coat at the first raindrop believing they are popular enough to earn a seat without FPM.

Kataeb should disappear completely from the political scene, maybe only Sami can manage to earn a seat in Bikfaya. LF should eject the retarded Naddouma in Ashrafieh.

Besides, all MPs that left the Srong Lebanon block such as Frem, Mouawad, Roukoz, Daher lose popularity. That is a constant in elections, people don't trust turncoats; that is the very reason why Mansour el bon lost a big deal, because he was Fares Souhaid best friend and a 14 march partisan, and he sided with FPM. Same applies with Ziad Baroud, who was a complete unknown until Michel Sleiman made him minister of the interior, then Baroud sided with Michel Sleiman worst enemies, FPM.

I foresee a drop in FPM popularity in Kesrwan, unless they choose to side with Juan Hobeich, but again , he is a mini za3im in Kesrwan who can switch sides at the first raindrop just as Mouawad and Frem did.

LF could win 3-5 new MPs. Anti-FPM people who are currently in a state of fear and uncertainty would easily drop jerks such as Sami Gemayel and his like, in order to choose a more extreme choice, that is LF.

Besides LF doesn't have the reputation of corruption as much as Hariri and Jumblat do, hence people won't sanction them as much. Just an opinion

 

[dyyyy]

I agree on the premise but calling for an early elections is actually not that good for the independents as this will be a whole charade and in the end the same will win giving the argument ...see democracy!
If the "revolution leaders" or those who think they are..really have Lebanon's best interests in mind they need to get their acts together make compromises and stop being arrivistes. Most people out in the streets are honest and want the best for the country hope it translates into something more than chaotic requests and leadership as we do not really have 30years to start the process...needs to start today to give results maybe in 10/15 years.

Actually, what they're exactly asking for is an independent judiciary system, an independent government with special permissions (don't know the translation, حكومة ذات صلاحيات خاصة ) that will oversee an early elections.

If the first 2 are fulfilled, it will guarantee a fairer election.

The problem is the demands are too idealistic with the current regime...

But during the October protests they did something very good, most parties had tents in martyr's square and there were sessions everyday to explain to the people key aspects of politics, and I think political education is key if we want to change the mindset.

 

[Mrsrx]

Actually, what they're exactly asking for is an independent judiciary system, an independent government with special permissions (don't know the translation, حكومة ذات صلاحيات خاصة ) that will oversee an early elections.

If the first 2 are fulfilled, it will guarantee a fairer election.

The problem is the demands are too idealistic with the current regime...

But during the October protests they did something very good, most parties had tents in martyr's square and there were sessions everyday to explain to the people key aspects of politics, and I think political education is key if we want to change the mindset.

I have seen Charbel Nahas ask for this but he is not getting the traction he should in his requests ( His PR is not great if you see the number of views on youtube/twitter followers/number of votes he got in 2018). He is marginalised today. Who else asked for that? or supported his requests?

 

[dyyyy]

I have seen Charbel Nahas ask for this but he is not getting the traction he should in his requests ( His PR is not great if you see the number of views on youtube/twitter followers/number of votes he got in 2018). He is marginalised today. Who else asked for that? or supported his requests?

Yes his PR is not great, the name of the party alone is aweful

I remember several groups agreed on those points (Beirut madinati, ReLebanon, Li7aqi, ana khat a7mar...)

The problem inno like you said there is not one major group, ya3ne you get drowned by the name of the groups and they have no legitimate ground, everyone who wants to get in the hype today calls himself moujtama3 madani

and it's true people are getting frustrstated today that they're not clearly unified yet.

 

[Leb_Rebel]

Yes his PR is not great, the name of the party alone is aweful

I remember several groups agreed on those points (Beirut madinati, ReLebanon, Li7aqi, ana khat a7mar...)

The problem inno like you said there is not one major group, ya3ne you get drowned by the name of the groups and they have no legitimate ground, everyone who wants to get in the hype today calls himself moujtama3 madani

and it's true people are getting frustrstated today that they're not clearly unified yet.

1. Nahas is marginalised because he has leftist ideologies which don't sit with the capitalist, right-wing, backers of the revolutions. However, he is the only one who has a plan, with which you may agree or disagree, but he is the only one.

2. Want to know why the fawrajiyye don't agree ? because they are Lebanese, and just like our politicians they want more pies of the fawra cake.

 

[HalaMadrid]

حكومة ذات صلاحيات خاصة

Extraordinary powers?

 

[Jesus-is-the-Lord]

I think 4th of August is a more decisive date than 17th of October in terms of political shift among the people.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

The way I see it, all "civil movement" initiatives thus far have been hugely disappointing.

"Thawraaa" is all well and good in the moment, but it is all a waste of time and energy if it doesn't mature into a fresh, innovative and well-defined movement that seeks to challenge the status quo intelligently. Unfortunately, we never saw that after the 2015 "tol3et ri7etkon" movement. We didn't see it after the 2018 elections, which should have been a launching pad for new parties into the Lebanese consciousness. Even after Oct. 17, as fertile a ground as you're ever going to get, no new parties materialized. Instead, we have crybabies on Twitter and thinly-veiled partisan influencers scheming for a coup. We have directionless anger as a result and an almost complete absence of political productivity from those who should be rallying behind them a people hungry for change.

To be honest, I have very little faith in the so-called "thawra", not because of conspiracies about embassies or whatever, but because those who were expected to emerge and lead have instead proven to be as lazy, incompetent and devoid of vision as the rotten political establishment. The movement, in its current form, has been nothing but an extension of the system, not a challenge to it...

That leaves me in a bit of a dilemma. I am an FPM supporter, but I believe the system needs to be changed. Years of futile work for reforms have gotten us nowhere. I would love to see someone challenge this system. I would happily vote for that someone. That someone could be newcomer, or it could be a revitalized FPM... Alas, it doesn't seem likely on both counts, right now.

As things stand, I might vote FPM again or I might not. I genuinely support Bassil's reformist politics, his work ethic and his determination, but I'm not entirely convinced he or Aoun still have any winning cards to play. I also believe in change and bringing in new blood, but the "revolution" has done nothing at all to convince me of its capacity to be anything beyond an unknowing political tool in the hands of the establishment. I can only hope viable options will emerge come election day... Otherwise, they can all rot in this system of fatal mediocrity without my help.